Gold buyers need validation from $2,387-93 hurdle & US inflationGold price rises for the third consecutive day while paring weekly loss ahead of the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. In doing so, the precious metal justifies the bullish crossover of the 100-SMA to the 200-SMA and the firmer RSI (14) line. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding $2,387-93 joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge the bullion buyers. Should the quote stay firmer past $2,393, its run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to a 13-week-long horizontal resistance area near $2,431-34 will be quick. It’s worth mentioning that the XAUUSD’s successful rise past $2,434 won’t hesitate to renew the all-time high, currently marked in May at around $2,450.
Meanwhile, a pullback in the Gold price highlights a fortnight-long rising support line, close to $2,365 at the latest. Following that, the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA will test the XAUUSD sellers around $2,342 and $2,337 respectively. In a case where the precious metal remains bearish past $2,337, traders can aim for $2,318 before jostling with an ascending support line from early April surrounding $2,298. If the bullion price holds onto the downward trajectory below $2,298, the $2,265 will act as the final defense of the buyers.
Overall, Gold price remains in the bullish trajectory ahead of important data and hence softer/mixed prints of the US CPI can allow the buyers to cross the immediate upside hurdle.
Commodities
GOLD - Price Observation & OverviewMonthly Time Frame:
Weekly Time Frame:
Overview & Observation:
1. Inside candle formation on monthly.
2. Trading at crucial levels, either side move is possible.
3. Hourly candle closing above 2390 for long position planning and bearish view only after breaking of demand zone.
Trade Plan:
1. Need to observe the price behaviour for the coming days to get better clarity.
- Stay tuned for further insights, updates and trade safely!
- If you liked the analysis, don't forget to leave a comment and boost the post. Happy trading!
Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Please, do your due diligence before investing.
Thanks & Regards,
Anubrata Ray
XAUUSD July 8, 2024 Will the rising wave continue?
Nonfarm news last weekend with lower employment data than the previous period caused gold to have a strong increase in price to 2392.2, this price increase may need to continue a correction of wave 4 before completing wave 5. final increase.
Looking at H1 we see
Black wave 5 has exceeded our measured target and approached the 2392 area.
- So the next 5 waves are a correction. The corrective wave is a complex wave that is difficult to specifically identify, but we still take the ABC corrective wave as the standard for price observation.
The specific target of this corrective wave needs to be observed at least as waves A and B complete to be accurate, but from the current data I measure the target of the corrective wave ending at the price range 2363 or 2355.
These are the two price zones I expect to continue buying. We will continue to observe price behavior during the correction wave to more accurately determine the target price zones of the correction wave.
Gold Continues to Trend UpwardsGold ended Friday's trading session on a positive note following the release of key economic data from the Non-Farm Payroll report, which indicated weak data for the USD, gold prices surged immediately after breaking through the 236x resistance zone.
Observing the H4 chart, we can clearly see the upward trend in gold prices. There is a notable double bottom pattern, targeting the 2,40x level. However, achieving this target will require support from sellers to push the price up to that range.
The uptrend is expected to continue this week, but we should wait for a slight pullback for a retest before the price makes a strong upward move.
Crude Oil retreats from 11-week high as eventful week beginsWTI Crude Oil remains pressured after reversing from an 11-week high the previous day, especially when the US Dollar posts a corrective bounce ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. The black gold’s retreat also highlights the importance of the support-turned-resistance line stretched from mid-December 2023 and a downward-sloping trend line from late September last year. It’s worth noting that the RSI’s pullback from the overbought territory and the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals also favor the energy benchmark’s latest consolidation.
With this, the quote will likely extend the latest fall toward testing the 10-SMA support of $82.50. However, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the commodity’s late 2023 fall and the 100-SMA, respectively near $81.40 and $80.40, quickly followed by the $80.00 psychological magnet, will challenge the Oil bears afterward. In a case where the prices remain weak past $80.00, an area comprising tops marked from mid-November 2023 to January 2024 near $79.70-25, will be the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears.
Meanwhile, a downward-sloping resistance line from September 2023, close to $84.10 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the black gold. Following that, the previous support line from late 2023 will test the oil buyers near $84.70. It’s worth noting, however, that a 9.5-month-old falling resistance line surrounding $86.50 appears a tough nut to crack for the commodity buyers, a break of which will allow them to challenge the yearly high of $87.60.
Overall, Crude Oil is likely to witness further consolidation in prices as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) loom.
XAUUSD July 5, 2024 waiting for a reasonable buy pointYesterday was Bank Holiday, so low market liquidity led to gold prices sideways in a narrow fluctuation range.
The price targets have not changed from the previous plan, the only difference is that the price has touched the demand zone that we have identified and turned up. This suggests that wave 4 may have completed and The price will continue to increase, completing wave 5
- Today there is news about Nonfarm, if the price continues to compress within this narrow range, then after the news it is possible that the price will complete the wave 5 target and then enter a correction. If the price reaches the target of wave 5 before the news is released, then after the news is released, the price will have a downward correction.
- The target price range that I want to buy is the price range 2339 to 2342. This is the expected price adjustment range after wave 5 completes.
Gold buyers have various obstacles to tackle, including US NFPDespite posting a Doji candlestick on Thursday, the Gold price appears well set for the second consecutive weekly gain as traders await the US employment details for June. In doing so, the XAUUSD defends the mid-week breakout of a month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around $2,350, backed by upbeat RSI conditions and the bullish MACD signals. Also keeping the bullion buyers hopeful is the quote’s ability to stay beyond the 50-SMA level. However, a slew of upside hurdles and likely upbeat prints of the US jobs report, including the top-tier Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), test optimists ahead of the key data.
Among the resistances, a fortnight-old horizontal area surrounding $2,365-68 caps the immediate upside of the precious metal. Following that, a region comprising multiple tops marked since mid-April, near $2,387-92, will challenge the advances before the last defense of the bears, namely a three-month-old horizontal region around $2,431-34. It’s worth noting that the $2,400 threshold and the all-time high marked in May around $2,450 are extra filters toward the north.
Meanwhile, the Gold sellers will need validation from strong US employment data and a daily closing beneath the resistance-turned-support line surrounding $2,350. In that case, the 50-SMA level of $2,339 will grab the attention of short-term XAUUSD bears. Should the quote remain weak past $2,339, it will quickly drop to $2,318 but a convergence of a three-month-old rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci ratio of March-May upside, near $2,297-96, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers afterward. If the bullion bears manage to keep the reins past $2,296, the early April swing low of near $2,265 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of $2,261 can flash on their radars.
Overall, Gold remains bullish ahead of the top-tier data but the upside room appears limited.
Silver Micro Futures (MCX), View for 5-JulyThe degree and nature of separation in both bands indicates a strong uptrend. Also the price is trading in the positive zone with a RSI of above 50. The price tends to move higher and could test the level of R1-94,489 with a stop out level of S1-89,800.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
XAUUSD July 4, 2024 will the price still decrease?
We expected a shakeout to enter the line but the price did not create this spring and completed the Flat correction pattern with wave c equal to wave a. Then the price increased sharply to the 2365 area
- The completion of wave c means that wave 2 has also completed. Now the price enters wave 3
- The target of wave 3 is at least fibo 1.618% of purple wave 1, so we have the minimum expectation at the price range of 2395
- Looking at the smaller black trend, the price has gone through 4 waves 1234 and we wait for wave 5 to complete and then the price will have a correction before continuing to increase.
- My suggested buying zone is the price range 2342 - 2340, which is the expected target of the completed major correction.
Coffee Day :: A Good Buy RangeI decided to invest in Coffee Day as it appears to be within a good buying range.
Disclosure : I am not SEBI registered. The information provided here is for education purposes
only. I will not be responsible for any of your profit/loss with this suggestions. Consult your financial advisor before taking any decisions
XAUUSD SHORTFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied...
Keep trading
Hustle hard
Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!!
XAUUSD July 2, 2024 will the price continue to increase?Looking at H1, we see that the price is having a recovery to the 2334 area. Looking at the recovery candles, we see that these are short-bodied candles, which proves that the price momentum is weak and will not make the price go far. Okay
- Looking at the overall price correction, the price is in a Flat correction model. With this model, we continue to expect the price to complete wave C before continuing.
We continue to wait for the price to touch the target of wave C at the price range 2311 to 2304 to enter a Buy order.
XAUUSD July 1, 2024 Has the uptrend begun?Last week we saw that from H1, the price completed a 5-wave pattern. According to the Elliot principle, this could be wave A or impulse wave 1
- Whether it is a wave A pattern or a complete wave 1 pattern, the 5-wave pattern is always followed by a correction wave
- We expect the abc corrective wave pattern to find a trading setup when wave c completes
- As shown on h1, we see that the correction pattern is in wave b phase and after wave b completes, we will determine the target of wave c to decide to enter the order.
- Looking at h1, we see that the demand zone created by the bottom of wave 4 has been approached many times so this zone has been weakened and there is a high possibility of being breached, this reinforces for us that the bearish wave C will form.
From the current data, we can temporarily measure the target of wave C at two price zones: 2311 and 2304.
From the target area of wave C we can find buy orders
- In case the price breaks through the 2294 zone, our wave counting process is no longer correct, then I will update the new wave counting settings.
- Area 2294 is also a good Stoploss area for our buy order
Gold price at the end of the session: There is still no new breaGold prices are currently correcting in a narrow range and are testing important support and resistance levels. Trading strategies should be built based on price reactions in these zones, while always considering risk management factors.
Support and Resistance:
Critical support: Area around $2,310,000, shown by light blue area.
Key resistance: Area around $2,345,000, shown by the red area.
Potential Scenarios:
The price may continue to correct and retest the light blue support zone. If this support holds, the price is likely to bounce back and retest the red resistance zone.
In case the price fails to hold support, it may continue to fall deeper.
Trading strategies:
Buy order: Consider at the support zone of 2,310,000 USD if there is a signal of a bullish reversal, with the target being the resistance zone of 2,345,000 USD.
Sell order: Consider if the price fails to overcome the resistance zone of 2,345,000 USD, with the target being the support zone of 2,310,000 USD.
What does gold price change at the end of the session?Yesterday, gold prices found a boost, rebounding from the $2,300 level. However, this rally was short-lived and primarily represented a correction within the broader trend. The precious metal remains constrained below the trendline, with accumulation phases and bearish pressure still prevailing. Currently, the price stands at $2,320, marking a 0.33% decline for the day.
Today, the market is awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report. This report is regarded as one of the most significant inflation indicators that can influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Given its potential to cause substantial market volatility, it is crucial to monitor this report closely and ensure that your take profit (TP) and stop loss (SL) levels are properly set when trading.
XAUUSD June 28, 2024 Where will the price increase go?Yesterday we had a price increase in the 2295 area.
As I said, if in this zone the price increases beyond 2316.8, we have to count the waves again
- We are still in a downtrend and this increase is just a recovery
- The new wave counting process is denoted as on the graph. The price decline ended at 2295, wave 5 has completed and next we have the ABC correction process.
- Wave A is a 5-wave pattern and currently we see the price is in the wave 4 target area.
- Next we have the price will continue to complete wave 5 to complete wave A
- So with the Buy settings we can set the appropriate TP, you can gradually increase the SL to avoid losing profits.
- We have 2 price zones to complete the wave A target: 2332.9 and 2341.4, these are two potential price zones for the current price increase.
XAUUSD on June 27, 2024, the final decline?
The price has approached the 2295 zone and is currently recovering very weakly in this zone.
- There is a high possibility that the price will continue to break this zone and drop to the 2287 zone.
+ At area 2287, if the price breaks out below this area, the price will continue to complete the target of wave 5 at price area 2256 or 2210.
+ If the price continues to rebound and surpass the 2315 price range, then we can say that the correction has not ended and the current price is still in a complex correction, then we have to count the waves again ( I will update if this situation happens)
- At this price range, we should only observe or play Scalping because we have two price resistance zones that are quite close to each other, the 2295 zone and the 2287 zone.
Gold strategy today: Should Buy or Sell?Hello everyone, let's explore today's gold prices together!
Yesterday, the gold market seemed relatively calm with minimal fluctuations, and the downward trend continued. Currently, the precious metal is hovering around $2321 and appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern.
If this pattern completes, we could see the price testing the psychological level of $2300 today. The strategy to sell remains the preferred approach.