"ETH/USDT Forecast""ETH/USDT Forecast"
The market shows evidence of strong participation earlier, where price moved with speed and consistency, reflecting clear intent. That phase established direction and control without prolonged hesitation.
As price progressed, momentum began to ease. Movement slowed, reactions became more frequent, and volatility compressed. This change indicates a shift from active pressure to evaluation, where participants reduced aggression and allowed price to stabilize.
The subsequent recovery unfolded in a measured and uneven manner. Advances were short, overlapping, and lacked continuation, suggesting limited commitment behind higher prices. Opposing flow remained active, preventing expansion.
Currently, price behavior is defined by balance and compression. Activity reflects positioning rather than resolution. Until behavior shifts from overlap to decisive movement, the market remains in a waiting state, with continuation favored once imbalance returns.
Cryptomarket
ETH UNDER PRESSURE - BREAKDOWN Ethereum slipped below the $3,000 support, following heavy selling in spot ETH ETFs. Net outflows hit $224.7M in a single day, the largest exit in weeks, extending total ETF selling to $286.5M over the past three days. Notably, BlackRock and Grayscale led the withdrawals, with zero inflows recorded across funds.
This breakdown triggered a liquidation cascade, wiping out nearly $168M in ETH long positions and driving price down toward the $2,895 zone.
📉 Technical View:
ETH remains under bearish pressure, forming a bearish flag while a confirmed death cross keeps downside risk elevated. Unless price reclaims resistance near $3,170, the structure points toward a potential move to the $2,620 support zone.
⚠️ Market Takeaway:
Momentum favors the downside for now. Bulls need a strong reclaim of key resistance to shift sentiment — otherwise, volatility remains skewed against longs.
MARAL Execution Example — WIFUSDT.P 1H (Short 0.01234 → 0.01196)MARAL Execution Example—Discretionary SHORT (Entry 0.01234 → Exit 0.01196) in Binance
This post is not about prediction. It’s about execution quality — how MARAL guides a trader before entry, during the hold phase, and into the exit decision using context + risk controls.
Trade Snapshot
Position: SHORT (manual)
Entry: 0.01234
Exit: 0.01196
Move captured: ~0.00038 (≈ 3.1%)
1) Pre-Entry: Why MARAL allowed the trade
Entry Checklist (Permission Layer)
MARAL’s checklist was green across core pillars:
HTF Alignment: OK
Structure: OK (Bear Structure)
Momentum: OK
Volatility (ATR + ADX): OK
Liquidity Confidence: WARN
Score: 93 / 65 → ENTER SHORT
Important: “Liquidity = WARN” is not a “no-trade.”
It means nearby liquidity pools exist, so the trade may include wick risk / stop-sweep behavior, and execution must be disciplined (no FOMO entries, no oversized risk).
2) Signal vs Framework: What the Master Engine confirmed
MARAL didn’t just show “short.” It confirmed the internal quality of the short context:
Last Signal: SHORT
Direction: Bearish
H1 / H4 / Daily Bias: Bearish alignment
Structure: Bear Structure
Short Score: 93 (A++)
Trend Probability: 93%
Reversal Probability: 7%
This is the key difference:
MARAL doesn’t “tell” you to trade — it grades the environment so your entry is not emotional.
3) Execution Board: What happened AFTER entry (the real value)
Post-entry, the Execution Board shifted into execution guidance:
Execution State (Holding Logic)
Trade Status: VALID
Market Phase: CONTINUATION
TP Probability: HIGH
Obstacle Ahead: NO
Exit Pressure: LOW
Momentum Health: STRONG
Score Trend: Stable / Improving
Active Window: ON
Action: HOLD
Trade Age: FRESH
This is execution intelligence:
VALID + CONTINUATION = trend conditions still supportive
Obstacle Ahead: NO = fewer immediate barriers in path
Exit Pressure: LOW = no urgent reason to panic-exit
Action: HOLD = stay in trade as long as structure remains intact
4) Risk State: Why “OVEREXTENDED” matters even in a VALID trade
MARAL showed:
Risk State: OVEREXTENDED
This does not mean reversal.
It means:
“The move is mature / extended relative to volatility. Continuation can happen, but holding requires risk-managed behavior.”
Execution behavior under OVEREXTENDED:
Don’t add to position (no stacking late)
Protect profits (tighten or trail logically)
Expect wicks/pullbacks even if trend remains bearish
Prefer partials / controlled exits near objectives
5) My exit decision (0.01196): Execution > greed
Even though MARAL was still VALID / HOLD, I chose to exit at 0.01196 to:
Lock a clean capture (~3.1%)
Respect OVEREXTENDED risk
Avoid giving back profit during possible liquidity reaction / mean-reversion
This is exactly what MARAL is designed for:
Stay in when the environment is valid — but exit like a risk manager, not like a gambler.
6) What would invalidate the HOLD (how MARAL helps you stay objective)
For me, a HOLD becomes questionable if MARAL starts flipping these:
Trade Status: VALID → RISKY/WEAK
Exit Pressure: LOW → RISING
Obstacle Ahead: NO → YES
Momentum Health: STRONG → WEAK
Score Trend: IMPROVING → DETERIORATING
Active Window: ON → OFF
That’s the execution framework in action: no emotions, only conditions.
Due to TradingView attachment limitations, the full chart is shared via the link below.
XAU/USD Outlook TodayThe latest data paints a pretty clear picture of where XAU/USD stands today, and the market tone is cautious but still bullish overall.
## 🟡 XAU/USD Outlook Today
### 1. **Price Action & Market Mood**
Gold is trading around the **$4,300** zone, with traders showing hesitation ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. This pause is driven mainly by expectations around inflation and jobs numbers, which could shift Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations.
- Gold recently eased slightly as traders took profits and reduced exposure ahead of U.S. jobs data.
- The metal is still holding above the **50‑day moving average at $4,127**, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
### 2. **Key Levels to Watch**
- **Resistance:**
- **$4,353–$4,381** remains a strong ceiling where recent rallies have stalled.
- **Support:**
- **$4,127** (50‑day MA) is the key line that keeps the “buy‑the‑dip” bias alive.
### 3. **Macro Drivers Today**
Markets are waiting for:
- **U.S. CPI data**, expected around **3.1% headline** and **3.0% core**. This is the biggest catalyst for gold today.
- A softer CPI print could weaken the dollar and push gold higher; a hotter print could pressure gold.
### 4. **Short‑Term Forecast**
Based on current sentiment and technicals:
- **Bias:** Mildly bullish
- **Expected range:** **$4,260 – $4,350**
- **Breakout potential:** A close above **$4,353** could open the door to retesting the **$4,381** record area.
If you want, I can also give you:
- A **1‑hour intraday technical setup**
- A **swing‑trade plan**
- Or **automated chart levels** based on your trading style
HFCL BY KRS CHARTS17th September 2025 / 9:21 AM
Why HFCL?
1. First of all, its second time it's in my radar, previously we had more than 40% Return on this one and still long-term Target has been still loading 225 Rs.
2. 1M TF is making Higher High with current price level previously it breaks from flag pattern and gave upside move.
3. As we cand see in chart i have mentioned FVG range for 1M tf which was expected fall to be fill that FVG and it did.
4. Further, along with FVG filling 1W & 1D tfs is showing bullish divergence within range.
5. Volume is above avg with Morning Star Candle Breakout showing more bullish signs.
SL & Target is mentioned ‼️
** Attached Previous View on HFCL also go check it out**
BTC Market Update – FOMC Range ModeBitcoin is stuck in FOMC limbo — no clean pump, no dump, just tight consolidation as markets wait for Powell’s cue. Volatility is coiling, and a big move is loading.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: $92K–94K (must hold for bullish continuation)
Bullish Trigger: Break & hold above $94.6K
🎯 Next upside: $100K retest
Bearish Trigger: Break below $87.7K
🎯 Downside risk: Low $80Ks before a rebound attempt
Market View:
This is a classic decision range — expect sharp expansion once direction is chosen. Stay alert around FOMC headlines; volatility can spike fast.
Bias: ⚖️ Neutral → Breakout pending
Disclaimer:
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Trading in Forex, Gold, Crypto, and markets involves high risk. Do your own research and trade at your own risk.
The Most Important Bitcoin Level of This Cycle — Don’t Miss It.Bitcoin is once again testing its multi-year rising support trendline, the same zone that has triggered every major rally since 2020. Price has repeatedly formed higher lows, showing that long-term buyers are still defending this structure.
What makes this zone special is the confluence:
A macro rising support trendline that has held for nearly 4 years.
A fresh institutional demand zone between 88k–92k.
Volume spike indicating renewed accumulation.
Rejection from macro rising resistance , resetting liquidity below.
This type of setup usually appears before expansion moves. As long as BTC holds above this macro support, the market continues to favor upside targets:
1st Target: 106,770 (conservative)
2nd Target: 124,250 (mid-term)
3rd Target: 135,800+ (macro breakout zone)
But here’s the key point:
A clean breakdown below the structure would delay the bullish cycle, until then, dips into the demand zone remain high-probability accumulation opportunities for long-term traders.
History rarely repeats perfectly…
but it often rhymes, and BTC is back at the same place where big moves begin.
Analysis By @TraderRahulPal | More analysis & educational content on my profile.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets can change quickly always manage risk, do your own research, and trade according to your plan.
BTC: Liquidity Sweep SetupBTC: Liquidity Sweep Setup
Bitcoin continues to operate inside a broad equilibrium zone after completing a prolonged downward phase earlier in the month. The decline lost momentum as price entered a high-participation area, where trading activity became increasingly balanced and rotational. Since then, the market has developed a wide consolidation band, signaling a temporary standoff between directional conviction and liquidity accumulation.
Recent sessions show price repeatedly rotating through the center of this zone, forming alternating impulses that lack continuation. This pattern reflects a market focused on collecting orders rather than trending. Each short-lived push quickly transitions back into the range, indicating absorption on both sides and limited willingness from participants to sustain directional movement.
The lower portion of the range has begun attracting more activity, suggesting interest from larger players seeking efficient fill zones before any expansion. Price behaviour here is characterized by controlled sweeps, shallow recoveries, and frequent re-tests of the mid-band — signs of liquidity harvesting rather than aggressive distribution.
Forward behaviour on the chart implies that the market may first dip into the lower liquidity pocket to finalize order collection. Once this pocket is satisfied, conditions become favourable for a transition into an expansion phase targeting the upper boundary of the current equilibrium. This type of structure is common before major repricing, as it reflects the buildup of untriggered positions awaiting execution.
Overall, Bitcoin is in a preparation phase where energy is being stored, volatility is compressing, and liquidity is reorganizing. The next significant development is likely to emerge once the market completes its sweep of inefficient areas inside the range and finds a stable base for expansion.
ETH 1H Outlook: Key Support Retest With Potential Downside RiskKey observations:
1. Support Level Under Pressure
ETH is retesting this support multiple times.
The annotation suggests: “SUPPORT IF BREAKS THEN WE CAN SEE MORE DOWNWORD” — meaning a breakdown could trigger further selling.
2. Downside Targets
If the current support fails, the next liquidity zones highlighted are:
FVG (Fair Value Gap) around $2,950–$2,900
Extreme POI zone around $2,880–$2,850
Major support at $2,787 (marked as “next support”).
3. Upside Scenario
If support holds, ETH could bounce toward:
$3,078
$3,134
High resistance around $3,225
4. Market Structure
Several CHoCH and BOS labels indicate mixed structure, showing recent weakness but with potential for rebound if buyers defend support strongly.
ETH Bullish Outlook: Tokenization Boom to $9K in 2026CRYPTO:ETHUSD
Asset: ETH/USD
Timeframe: Weekly
Hey traders! 🚀 Ethereum's dipping into December around $3,100 after some post-ATH consolidation, but the setup screams reversal. Fundstrat's Tom Lee is calling for a monster rally to $9,000 by 2026, fueled by tokenization exploding across finance. That's nearly 190% upside—ETH's about to steal the spotlight from BTC!
Key Analysis:
Macro Tailwinds: ETH's riding BTC's coattails but with extra juice from spot ETF inflows and real-world asset tokenization. As Wall Street piles in, expect ETH to decouple upward—watch for Nasdaq sync and weakening USD to amplify the move.
Technical Setup: Rock-solid support at $2,800, the recent higher low that's holding like a champ. Daily RSI oversold, bullish MACD crossover brewing, and on-chain metrics show whales accumulating. Smash $3,500 resistance, and we're blasting toward $4,500 next.
Risks: Near-term volatility if broader risk assets falter, but ETF demand and layer-2 scaling keep the floor intact for the long haul.
Trade Signal:
Entry: Long ETH/USD at $3,000 (confirmation above $2,800 support).
Target 1: $4,000 (short-term, ~30% gain).
Target 2: $9,000 (Tom Lee tokenization target by mid-2026).
Stop Loss: $2,700 (below key support to guard the downside).
Risk/Reward: 1:4+ on the primary target. Position size: 1-2% of portfolio.
Chart snapshot: Weekly candles forming a bullish pennant at $2,800, with Fibonacci retracement eyeing $9K extension. Overlay ETH ETF flows for that institutional vibe! (Pro tip: Compare with BTC dominance to spot ETH's breakout edge.)
Idea by Signal Squad
Published: December 8, 2025
What do you think, squad? ETH outpacing BTC in 2026, or more sideways grind? Drop your takes below—let's squad up! #ETH #CryptoSignals #SignalSquad
BTC Bullish Outlook: Riding the Wave to $170K in 2026CRYPTO:BTCUSD
Asset: BTC/USD
Timeframe: Weekly
Hey traders! 🚀 With Bitcoin kicking off December on a softer note around $85K, the market's digesting some Q4 turbulence, but we're eyeing a major reversal. Drawing from JPMorgan's fresh take, BTC could mirror gold's trajectory and surge to $170K within the next 6-12 months. That's an 84% upside from here—don't sleep on this!
Key Analysis:
Macro Tailwinds: BTC's negative correlation with the USD is flashing green as the dollar weakens. Pair that with its risk-on dance with stocks (watch Nasdaq for cues), and we're primed for a breakout.
Technical Setup: We've got support holding firm at the $80K psychological level—classic round-number magnet for BTC. RSI is oversold on the daily, MACD showing divergence, and options data screams "range-bound now, explosive later." Break above $90K, and it's game on toward the next roundie at $100K.
Risks: Short-term chop if stocks wobble further, but long-dated option builds suggest stability before the boom.
Trade Signal:
Entry: Long BTC/USD at $82,000 (confirmation above $80K support).
Target 1: $100,000 (short-term, ~20% gain).
Target 2: $170,000 (JPM moonshot by mid-2026).
Stop Loss: $75,000 (below key support to protect downside).
Risk/Reward: 1:3+ on the primary target. Position size: 1-2% of portfolio.
Chart snapshot: Imagine a weekly candlestick with a bullish engulfing at $80K, Fibonacci extensions pointing to $170K, and gold overlay for that JPM vibe. (Pro tip: Overlay GLD on your BTC chart for visual confirmation!)
Idea by Signal Squad
Published: December 8, 2025
What do you think, squad? Bullish breakout or more consolidation? Drop your thoughts below—let's discuss! #BTC #CryptoSignals #SignalSquad
Weekly Analysis BTC with Sell and Buy scenarios..Here is the weekly analysis of BTC including various topics of ICT, Price action etc.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Major Cycle in Crypto Market (Attention Hedge Funds)Cycle-1: Bitcoin’s First Major Boom–Bust Structure (2013–2015)
(Screenshot-1 Breakdown)
Understanding Bitcoin’s historical behaviour is essential for forecasting macro-cycles in the crypto market. This post is the first of a 4-part series, where each screenshot highlights a repeating structural pattern in BTC’s long-term market psychology. After all four cycles are explained, I will present the combined Buy, Sell or Hold conclusion for long-term investors and institutional desks.
🟦 Cycle-1 Overview (April 2013 – January 2015)
In the first major structural cycle of Bitcoin, a very clear macro behaviour emerged — a pattern that continues to repeat across all future cycles.
🔵 Step 1 — ATH (A) Formed (April 2013)
Bitcoin printed a strong All-Time High (A) in April 2013, marking the top of its first major momentum wave.
🟢 Step 2 — Breakout Above ATH (A) → New ATH (B) (Nov 2013)
Once BTC broke above Point A, it entered an aggressive parabolic rally, setting a new ATH (B) in November 2013.
This breakout phase triggered:
FOMO-driven retail participation
Sharp acceleration in volatility
Rapid expansion in price multiples
🔴 Step 3 — Post-Breakout Collapse: -75% to -80% Drawdown
After forming ATH (B), Bitcoin failed to sustain the parabolic breakout.
A deep correction followed:
–75% to –80% decline
Capitulation phase
Panic selling and liquidity contraction
This phase marks the beginning of the macro mean-reversion cycle, a consistent signature in BTC’s long-term structure.
🟣 Step 4 — Price Returns to Previous ATH (A)
The most important element of Cycle-1:
After making a new ATH (B), Bitcoin retraced back to the previous ATH (A)
Time taken: 15–17 months
This behaviour is extremely rare in traditional markets but has repeated consistently in Bitcoin’s long-term structure.
📌 Why This Cycle Matters
Cycle-1 establishes the foundation for a powerful historical pattern:
BTC tends to fall back to its previous ATH after forming a new ATH.
This phenomenon repeats due to:
Leverage washouts
Liquidity resets
Miner capitulation
Long-term holder profit-taking
Macro monetary tightening phases
This is Cycle-1.
In the next screenshots, we will see how Cycle-2, Cycle-3, and Cycle-4 follow the same structural behaviour.
⏭️ Coming Next (Screenshot-2):
“Post-2017 Cycle — New ATH → 83% Crash → Return to Previous ATH.”
Cycle-2: 2017 Parabolic Expansion → 2018–2019 Reset (Screenshot-2 Breakdown)
This is the second chart in the ongoing 4-part series highlighting Bitcoin’s macro boom-and-bust rhythm—a structural pattern that repeats regardless of market participants, liquidity cycles, or macroeconomic conditions.
Cycle-2 again confirms that Bitcoin follows a highly predictable long-term retracement behaviour after every breakout to a new All-Time High.
🟦 Cycle-2 Overview (2017–2019)
This cycle mirrors the exact structure of Cycle-1:
Break previous ATH
Establish new ATH
Drop –75% to –80%
Return to previous cycle’s ATH
Time duration: 15–17 months
Let’s break down the chart step-by-step.
🔵 Step 1 — BTC Breaks Previous ATH on May–June 2017 (Point E)
In early 2017, Bitcoin broke the previous cycle’s ATH (from 2013–2014).
This breakout point is marked as:
Point E (May–June 2017)
Acts as the new cycle support
Represents the start of the parabolic expansion leg
This breakout confirms institutional liquidity entry and the beginning of a classic crypto macro-cycle.
🟢 Step 2 — Massive Rally to New ATH (Point F) — Dec 2017
After the breakout at E, Bitcoin entered its most aggressive historical rally:
BTC exploded into a full parabolic top
New ATH formed at Point F (Dec 2017)
Extreme retail inflow and speculative leverage
ICO mania peak
This is similar to the 2013 pattern—breakout → acceleration → parabolic top.
🔴 Step 3 — Reversal and Deep Crash: –75% to –82%
Post-ATH, Bitcoin collapsed sharply:
Total Drawdown: –75% to –82%
Duration: 455 days (≈15 months)
Angle of correction: Steep capitulation slope (as shown in your chart)
ICO bubble burst + liquidity draining
Dominance reset + long-term distribution
The depth and duration match Cycle-1 almost exactly.
🟣 Step 4 — Price Re-tests Previous ATH Zone (Point G — Mar 2019)
Just like Cycle-1, Bitcoin returned precisely to the previous breakout area:
Cycle Support (E) → Retest at G
Time Duration: ≈15–17 months
Price forms a demand zone around the previous ATH
Bottoming structure completes at G (March 2019)
This confirms again:
Bitcoin always re-tests its previous ATH after forming a new ATH — within a fixed time band of ~15–17 months.
Cycle-2 perfectly aligns with the behavioural signature of Cycle-1.
📌 Why Cycle-2 Matters to Institutions
This cycle reveals Bitcoin’s predictable macro liquidity reset pattern:
Break previous ATH → Excess speculation → Parabolic top
Systemic deleveraging → –80% correction
Return to previous cycle’s ATH support
Fresh long-term accumulation
This behaviour is structurally identical across multiple halving cycles.
Cycle-3: 2020 Breakout → 2021 Mania → 2022–2023 Reset (Screenshot-3 Analysis)
This third chart demonstrates the strongest confirmation of Bitcoin’s repeating macro-cycle structure.
Despite greater institutional involvement, derivatives expansion, and global liquidity changes, Bitcoin still respected the same 75–80% retracement and 15–17-month correction window.
Cycle-3 proves the pattern is structural, not accidental.
🟦 Cycle-3 Overview (2020–2023)
Like previous cycles:
BTC breaks previous ATH
Creates a new ATH
Drops –75% to –80%
Comes back to retest the previous ATH
Same time duration: ~15–17 months
Let’s decode the chart.
🔵 Step 1 — BTC Breaks Previous ATH in Nov–Dec 2020 (Point H)
Bitcoin broke the 2017 ATH during late 2020:
Breakout Point H (Nov 2020)
This previous ATH (Point F = Point H) becomes the new major cycle support zone
Triggered institutional FOMO: MicroStrategy, Tesla, hedge funds
This breakout ignited the strongest bull run in Bitcoin’s history.
🟢 Step 2 — Bitcoin Forms a New ATH in Nov 2021 (Point I)
Following the breakout at H:
BTC surged to a macro ATH at Point I (Nov 2021)
Fueled by:
Unlimited liquidity (pandemic QE)
Institutional buyers
ETF expectations
Retail mania & leverage
This top perfectly mirrors the parabolic peaks from 2013 and 2017.
🔴 Step 3 — Deep Macro Crash: –75% to –80%
After the November 2021 top:
BTC entered a systemic deleveraging phase
Complete 2022 crypto meltdown:
Luna collapse
Celsius, Voyager, BlockFi
FTX implosion
Price fell 77% from the ATH
Duration: 485 days (~16 months)
Exactly the same timing window as the previous two cycles.
🟣 Step 4 — Retest of Previous ATH Support (Point J — Mar 2023)
Just like Cycle-1 (2013 → 2015)
and Cycle-2 (2017 → 2019):
Bitcoin again returned exactly to its previous ATH zone:
Support Retest Point J (Mar 2023)
Perfect touch of the 2020 breakout zone
Massive demand entered the market
Cycle bottom completed right on schedule
This completes the third full repeat of BTC’s long-term structural cycle.
📌 Institutional Takeaway
Cycle-3 confirms:
Bitcoin’s macro behaviour is identical across 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles — regardless of market maturity.
Every time Bitcoin breaks its previous ATH:
It creates a new parabolic peak
Then crashes 75–80%
Then returns to retest the previous ATH level
All within a consistent 15–17 month window
This makes Bitcoin the most predictable high-beta asset on the planet at a macro timescale.
Cycle-4: Oct-2024 Breakout → Oct-2025 ATH → Mar-2027 Retest of Legacy Support
After analyzing the previous three Bitcoin macro cycles (2013–2015, 2017–2019, 2021–2023), the new chart strongly suggests that Bitcoin is following the exact same structural behaviour for the 4th time.
This idea explains why BTC may enter a 15–17 month decline starting from the Oct-2025 macro top, and why the next major demand zone sits around 30,000 USD in Mar-2027.
🟥 1. Break of Previous ATH (I = K) — Oct 2024
Bitcoin broke above its previous ATH zone in Oct 2024, exactly like in all earlier cycles:
2013 ATH break → 2013 bull run
2017 ATH break → 2020–2021 bull run
2021 ATH break → 2024 surge
2024 ATH break → current cycle
This breakout (I = K level) becomes the new structural support for the cycle bottom later.
🟩 2. BTC Forms New Macro ATH (Point L) — Oct 2025
One year later, Bitcoin printed a new ATH around Oct 2025, marking the peak of Cycle-4.
Previous cycles also peaked approx. 11–14 months after breaking the last ATH, which strengthens this model.
🔻 3. Post-ATH Crash Begins — Same Pattern, Same Angle, Same Duration
All 3 previous cycles share:
• 75%–80% decline
• Duration: 15–17 months
• Final target: previous ATH or the ATH-1 level
Your chart highlights the same decline angle and same time window (Oct-2025 → Mar-2027).
This is exactly what Bitcoin has done before:
Cycle ATH → Bottom Duration Drop Retest Level
2013 → 2015 15 months –86% Previous ATH
2017 → 2019 17 months –84% Previous ATH
2021 → 2023 16 months –77% Previous ATH
2025 → 2027 (Prediction) 15–17 months –75% to –80% Previous ATH
Nothing in the 2024–2025 structure breaks this long-term behaviour.
🟦 4. Current Price Near “N” = Retesting Breakout Support
BTC is currently trading back near the Oct-2024 breakout level, marked as:
N = Previous ATH Support Zone
Historically, this level is not the final bottom.
It is only the first macro support touch before the full 75–80% correction completes.
Because the full 15–17 month window has not yet played out, a deeper decline remains statistically likely.
🟡 5. Final Prediction — BTC Bottom Around 30,000 USD (Mar-2027)
Following cycle symmetry:
Top: Oct-2025
Drop duration: 15–17 months
Bottom: Mar-2027 (same month as previous major bottom in Mar-2023)
Target zone: $30,000 ≈ last-to-last ATH (2020 level)
This fits perfectly with all 4 historical cycles.
This means BTC may revisit the deep demand zone before the next major bull cycle begins.
📌 Final Outlook (Important for Long-Term Investors)
If Bitcoin truly repeats its macro cycle:
The best long-term buying opportunity would occur in Mar 2027
Price reading: $28K–$32K
After that, BTC begins Cycle-5 (likely targeting $180K–$250K)
This idea is not short-term trading advice; it is a macro-cycle pattern that has consistently repeated for 12+ years.
🟡 BUY / SELL / HOLD — Clear Conclusion
SELL / REDUCE RISK
If you are a trader or short-term investor, Bitcoin is in the post-ATH declining phase, which historically produces 15–17 months of lower prices.
HOLD (Long-Term Only)
Long-term holders can remain calm but should expect deep volatility, not straight-up movement.
BUY (Smart Accumulation Window)
The next high-conviction buying zone will be:
🔥 $28K–$32K
🔥 Timeline: Mar 2027
That will be the start of the next Bitcoin mega cycle (Cycle-5).
📢 Final Message
This research is not about fear or hype—it is about Bitcoin’s consistent repeating macro behaviour.
Every single major crash and rally of the last decade followed the same timing, structure, and depth.
Bitcoin is not random.
Bitcoin is cyclical.
And the cycle says:
**The real bottom is not here yet.
The real opportunity comes in 2027.**
Weekly analysis BTC with high RnR scenariosBTC is now in consolidation zone and may spend some more days. It may also develop ABC pattern or reversal at daily level, if price has to change its delivery and take turn from here. This zone is kind of make or break. If price is not able to sustain and breakdown, then it may witness ~65-70K levels as well.
We hope for reversal from this level as price is developing the pattern at higher time frame.
1. Price has taken liquidity or 82K and almost touched 80K.
2. It has inversed 1Day FVG and now price is consolidating in the range between EMAs.
3. We may expect price retracement till 1D iFVG and then reversal.
4. Before to that we may see sweep of 92900 (1D CISD) level and then a retracement short trade till 1D FVG
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (5m/15m) at FVG zone.
7. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high RnR trade scenario.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Weekly Gold analysis & 8R scenarioLast week gold closed positively with a strong candle showing positivity and approaching to a strong 4H FVG nested inside weekly quadrant level and making cluster. We may see both buying and selling scenarios.
Gold has also broken 4H trend line and retested it. So we can see a possible move till FVG.
We may also witness a breakout if price violates FVG and breaks all time high with strong volume support.
1. Price is creating higher highs in micro structure level and approaching towards 4hours FVG after breaking and retesting trend line at 4 Hours.
2. Trend line breakout is supported by strong volume.
3. Price is continuously running above EMAs confirming up move for now.
4. We may see a reversal scenario at 4 hour FVG level.
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (1h/15m) at FVG zone.
7. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and ~8R trade scenario.
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Ethereum – Elliott Wave Analysis (Weekly Chart)
#Phase 1:
Impulse Wave (1–5) Completed
ETH completed a 5-wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows to the 2024 top:
Wave (1) – Initial reversal from the bear market bottom
Wave (2) – Deep corrective pullback
Wave (3) – Strong expansion wave (typically the largest, as shown here)
Wave (4) – Sideways consolidation within the channel
Wave (5) – Final push into the upper resistance of the long-term channel
This 5-wave structure completed near the $4,093 region.
#Phase 2:
ABC Corrective Pattern Playing Out
After the 5-wave completion, ETH entered a large ABC correction:
(A) Wave
A sharp drop from the top, marking the start of correction.
(B) Wave
A lower-high retracement that couldn’t break above the multi-year channel resistance — classic sign of a corrective rally.
(C) Wave
This wave completed near the lower boundary of the long-term channel (shown on your chart), fulfilling the ABC structure.
#Phase 3:
New Cycle – Larger ABC Structure Forming
After completing the previous ABC cycle, ETH started a new higher-degree correction:
Wave A (up)
A strong rally to ~4,956 created the larger-degree Wave A.
Wave B (current)
Price is now declining in a steep Wave B structure.
Your highlighted grey demand zone ($1,800–$2,200) is the most likely B-wave target.
Notes Must Read
B-waves often break support briefly, creating a sentiment trap
#Phase 4:
Wave C – The Big Expansion (2026?)
After Wave B finishes inside $1,800–$2,200, ETH is likely to start a massive Wave C.
Wave C is typically:
Impulsive
Equal to Wave A or 1.618× Wave A
Target 🎯 $6,000 – $6,400 region
This matches the Elliott Wave rule where Wave C often extends strongly after a deep B-wave.
~Disclaimer~
High Risk Investment
Trading or investing in assets like crypto, equity, or commodities carries high risk and may not suit all investors.
Analysis on this channel uses recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing or trading.
This channel, Render With Me, is not responsible for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from using or relying on this information.
ETH/USD – Potential Bullish Reversal from Extreme POI !Analysis:
The chart suggests Ethereum is currently trading inside a strong Extreme Point of Interest (POI) after a series of Breaks of Structure (BOSS) to the downside. Price has entered a demand zone that may trigger a bullish reversal.
Key observations:
Downtrend Structure: Multiple BOSS confirmations show sustained bearish momentum leading into the Extreme POI.
Extreme POI (Demand Zone): Price is consolidating inside a deep demand area marked in red, indicating potential accumulation by buyers.
POI Reaction Expected: If price maintains support here, a bullish reversal is likely.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Two major FVGs above act as logical bullish targets for price inefficiency fill.
Projected Price Path:
The drawn projection suggests:
Short-term bounce from POI
Breakout structure upward
Continuation toward higher FVG fills around $2,962, $3,130, and possibly $3,192 – $3,220.
Bias:
▶ Bullish, as long as price remains above the Extreme POI.
A breakdown below would invalidate the setup and continue the downtrend.
This is a strong smart-money style setup with a clean narrative:
Demand → Break of structure → FVG fill → Higher targets.
Crypto Trading Guide1. Understanding Crypto Trading
Crypto trading involves buying and selling digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and thousands of altcoins with the goal of earning profits. Traders analyze price movements, market sentiment, liquidity, and technical indicators to make buy or sell decisions.
Unlike stock markets, crypto exchanges are decentralized and global. This means prices can fluctuate rapidly based on fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, or even social media trends. Knowing how these factors affect token value is the first step toward successful trading.
2. Types of Crypto Trading
There are several popular trading styles, each suited for different personality types and risk appetites.
a) Day Trading
Day traders enter and exit positions within a single day. They rely on short-term price movements, chart patterns, and volume spikes. This style requires high attention, quick decision-making, and consistent strategy execution.
b) Swing Trading
Swing traders hold assets for days or weeks. They aim to capture price “swings” driven by broader trends. This style offers a balance—less stress than day trading yet more opportunities than long-term investing.
c) Scalping
Scalpers make numerous small trades throughout the day, profiting from minor price differences. It demands precision, discipline, and fast execution.
d) Position Trading
Position traders take long-term positions based on macro trends, technological developments, or fundamental analysis. They are less affected by short-term volatility.
e) Automated or Algorithmic Trading
Bots execute trades automatically based on predefined rules. This reduces emotional bias and allows 24/7 trading. However, setup and strategy optimization require knowledge and testing.
3. Choosing the Right Crypto Exchange
Selecting a reliable exchange is vital for safety and smooth trading. Compare platforms based on:
Security features (2FA, cold storage, proof of reserves)
Trading fees (maker/taker charges)
Liquidity (higher liquidity ensures smoother trades)
Supported crypto pairs (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, etc.)
User interface and tools
Customer support quality
Global exchanges include Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase, while several regional exchanges also offer local currency support.
4. Building a Trading Plan
A trading plan acts as your roadmap. It should answer:
Which coins will you trade?
What is your entry strategy?
What is your exit strategy?
How much capital will you risk per trade?
What indicators will you use?
How will you control emotions?
A strong trading plan prevents impulsive decisions and keeps you aligned with your long-term goals.
5. Fundamental Analysis (FA)
Fundamental analysis evaluates a crypto asset’s underlying value. Unlike stocks, cryptocurrencies don't have earnings or balance sheets. Instead, traders rely on:
Project whitepaper
Technology and blockchain model
Token utility and real use cases
Team and advisors
Partnerships and community size
Supply metrics (circulating and max supply)
Roadmap progress
Market sentiment (news, social media trends)
Strong fundamentals help identify long-term winners.
6. Technical Analysis (TA)
Technical analysis uses chart data to predict price movements. Common tools include:
a) Candlestick Patterns
Doji, engulfing, hammer, shooting star—these show buying or selling strength.
b) Support and Resistance
Support acts as a floor for prices; resistance acts as a ceiling.
c) Moving Averages (MA)
Popular trends include:
50-day MA
100-day MA
200-day MA
Bullish when price stays above key MAs.
d) RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Indicates overbought (70+) or oversold (30-) conditions.
e) MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Shows momentum and potential trend reversals.
f) Volume Analysis
A price move with strong volume is more reliable than one with low volume.
A combination of these indicators gives clearer trading signals.
7. Risk Management
Crypto’s volatility can wipe out profits quickly if risk is not controlled. Effective risk management includes:
a) Position Sizing
Never allocate your entire portfolio to one coin. Use fractional position sizes (1–5% per trade).
b) Stop-Loss Orders
Automatically exit losing trades before losses escalate.
c) Take-Profit Levels
Lock in profits instead of waiting for unsustainable peaks.
d) Avoid Over-Leveraging
Futures trading may amplify gains, but also magnifies losses. Beginners should avoid high leverage.
e) Diversification
Hold a mix of large caps (BTC, ETH), mid-caps, and small caps to balance risk.
f) Keep Emotions in Check
Fear and greed are the biggest threats. A calm, rule-based approach wins long term.
8. Psychology of Crypto Trading
Market psychology plays a major role in crypto. Traders should understand:
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
Chasing pumps leads to buying at peaks.
Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD)
Negative news often triggers panic selling—even when fundamentals remain strong.
Overconfidence
Winning streaks can cause reckless decisions. Stick to your plan.
Patience and Discipline
Waiting for perfect setups is key. Avoid forcing trades.
A successful trader masters both the charts and their mindset.
9. Common Crypto Trading Mistakes
Avoid the pitfalls that trap many beginners:
Trading without a plan
Using high leverage early
Investing money you cannot afford to lose
Blindly following social media influencers
Ignoring security practices
Overtrading
Not keeping trading journals
Holding losing positions out of hope
Learn from mistakes and review trades regularly.
10. Securing Your Crypto
Security should always be a top priority. Follow best practices:
Use hardware wallets for long-term storage
Enable 2FA authentication
Keep strong, unique passwords
Avoid trading on public Wi-Fi
Beware of phishing and fake websites
Backup seed phrases offline
A secure setup ensures your profits remain yours.
Conclusion
Crypto trading offers enormous potential, but success depends on knowledge, discipline, and strategic execution. By understanding trading styles, applying both fundamental and technical analysis, managing risk effectively, and controlling emotions, you can navigate the volatility of crypto markets with confidence. The key is to start slow, stay consistent, and treat trading as a long-term skill-building journey. With the right approach, crypto trading becomes not just profitable but also an enriching experience in the rapidly evolving world of digital finance.






















