Unveiling Insights from MCX Crude Oil Mini May Contract ExpiryAs a derivatives trader and the developer behind MRISKA DTS5, I'm thrilled to share some fascinating insights from the recent expiry of the MCX Crude Oil Mini May futures contract. Let's delve into the observations and what they mean for the world of derivatives trading.
Death Level Signals Potential Breakdown:
During the expiry analysis, MRISKA DTS5 calculated the "Death Level" for June's contract at ₹5742 per barrel. Breaking this level in any upcoming session would indicate a high probability of a breakdown, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. It's essential to monitor the price action closely for potential trading opportunities.
Safe Level Hints at Potential Breakout:
MRISKA DTS5 also revealed the "Safe Level" for June's contract at ₹5974 per barrel. If the price surpasses this level in any upcoming session, it signifies a high probability of an up-move and breakout. This could potentially mark the end of the existing bearish trend and open doors to substantial demand for Crude Oil.
Market Dynamics: The Closing Price:
On 19th May 2023, the Crude Oil Mini June contract closed at ₹5932 per barrel. This closing price, just below the Safe Level, indicates a delicate balance in the market. Traders should remain vigilant as it may set the tone for the upcoming sessions.
Navigating the Uncertainty:
In this highly volatile market, it's crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing market dynamics. Keeping a close eye on the Death Level and Safe Level can help traders identify potential breakout opportunities and manage risk effectively.
Remember, the world of derivatives trading is ever-evolving, and these observations are valuable tools to navigate the volatility. Stay tuned for more insights and updates as we continue to decode the intricacies of the market.
Disclaimer: The observations provided here are based on historical data and market analysis. It's important to conduct thorough research, consult professionals, and formulate your own trading strategies before making any investment decisions.
Derivative_analysis
Nifty: Game of Positions F&O Data analysis
Note this is not a recommendation for any trade. But just an analysis of Index F&O trade data for today.
Trading in Futures & Options involves real money and is very risky. It is like a 3 way fight between retail traders, FIIs and Proprietary traders.
In a war, it is important to understand your opposition's strength and weakness. In many war history, we can take lessons, that if you understand your opposition well, you can have a better chance of winning even if you are not as strong as them.
This is to help you understand how various market participants have positioned themselves for tomorrow.
Futures data
• Retail participants added Net 2.22 K Long contracts & squared off Net 1.39 K Short contracts
• FIIs squared off Net 19.37 K Long contracts & added Net 6.93 K Short contracts
• Pro traders added Net 17.79 K Long contracts & squared off Net 3.77 K Short Contracts
Call option
• Retail traders added Net 6.38 Lakh Call Longs & added Net 4.44 Lakh Call shorts
• FIIs added Net 14.49 K Call Longs & added Net 70.54 K Call short
• Pro traders added Net 61.48 K Call Longs & added Net 1.99 Lakh Call shorts
Put option
• Retail traders squared off Net 14.61 K Put Long & added Net 68.42 K Put shorts
• FIIs added Net 39.89 K Put Long & added Net 13.69 K Put shorts
• Pro traders added Net 61.98 K Put Long & squared off Net 359 Put Short contracts
Retail Participants added Index Futures Long and exited from Short positions and in Options are massively inclined towards Positive bias by being Net Call Buyers and Net Put sellers (bias is bullish)
FIIs on the other hand exited from Index Futures Long and added Index Futures Short positions and in Options are Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers
Pro traders have taken long position in Index Futures and exited from Short positions. However, in Options they have a net bearish position. They are major Net Call sellers and Net Put buyers
PCR is at 0.81
Today Nifty index has formed a doji candlestick. However it traded most part of the day around 15820 odd levels (3 hourly candles have a close at 15825, 15821, 15820) and then it fell back to close at 15752.
Prima facie looks like buyers of today are at risk.
In our last Game of Positions, we saw FIIs winning the battle by leaps and bounds. Let's see what we have in store tomorrow.
Important levels
on the lower side 15680 / 15628 / 15450
on the upper side 15820 / 15865 / 15915
Trust you find it useful.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
For trading ideas you can see the links below
Nifty: Writing was on the wall...!!!Nifty
The current drop might have surprised you but have a look at this data below and see for yourself how each participants had positioned themselves on Friday and decide for yourself if you had access to this valuable information before trade could you have done better...?
This data analysis will tell you how various participants Retail, FIIs and Proprietary traders positioned themselves on Friday and answer your questions as to What happened today?
Call Option data
- Retail participants added 2.17 lakhs Call option and added 1.85 lakh Call short position
- FIIs added 34.84 K Call Long and added 25.83 K Call Short position
- Proprietary traders added 62.4 K Call Long and added 1.03 Lakh Call Short position
Put Option data
- Retail participants added 1.18 Put Long option and added 1.44 Lakh Call short position
- FIIs added 27.63 K Put long & added 12.89 K Put short
- Proprietary traders added 35.96 K Put Long & added 24.8K Put Short position
If you see Retail participants were Call Buyers and Put sellers (which means they were super bullish)
where as FIIs and & Proprietary traders were more inclined towards buying Puts and selling Call Options (meaning they were bearish on the market)
- Who do you think so trades with more knowledge?
- who do you think so has more financial muscle?💪
We had 2 powerful sources the FIIs and Proprietary traders inclined towards Shorts and the Herd mentality of Retail Participants inclined towards Buy side...
What do you prefer?
- trade against the powerful and lose
- or trade with winners and increase your chances of winning
This data can help you avoid Hope based trading and making mistakes. It's not too late. Start trading with knowledge. To get access to our detailed F&O data analysis on a daily End of Day basis Message in private
Only those who are serious may message
Others who don't want to change may kindly ignore 🙏
Best wishes
Follow and Hit the Like button...!!!