Bank Nifty Outlook for Tuesday, 14th July | 50x InvestmentsBank Nifty Technical Analysis:
Bank Nifty broke the lower trend line of an almost 20-day long rising wedge pattern.
The bears were clearly in control of the market, bringing the index down by 1.38%.
22000, which is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, acted as a strong support.
Bank Nifty Driving Factors:
Yes Bank FPO failed to excite market participants despite the deeply discounted offer price.
Most banks and NBFCs ended up deep in the red due to concerns of rising NPAs because of the moratorium
Bank Nifty Outlook for Tuesday, 14th July:
The downward breakout of the wedge seen today was not supported by high volumes and hence a pullback might be seen tomorrow in the form of a gap-up opening.
However, the hourly trend tomorrow post open is likely to be bearish with 21738, the 61.8% retracement level, acting as a strong support.
Earnings expectations will start to reflect in the index as most banks are expected to report Q1 FY21 earnings within the next 2 weeks.
Earnings
ITC Earning season 25 May / Short trade @ 200 ITC in a breakout positon
Earning is on 25th may
1. 7%+ rally before earning season
2. divergence on money flow
3. resistance on 190-193 level (Technical analysis)
4. Resisitance as per option chain data is at 200.
Option chain data
Resistance strike 200 call - 33.5 lakh OI
Support at strike 180 put - 14.8 lakh oI
Bear looks more powerfull here.
Trade plan
Short
if stock price reaches 200 short SL 205 TGT1 190 TGT2 180
if stock price crosses 190 short SL 195 TGT1 180
Long
if stock price crosses 200 long SL 195 TGT
NFLX updateAs of writing this, NFLX is down 14% at 343 dollars a share on disappointing revenue and subscriber growth, and weak subscriber growth estimates into Q3.
This decline in price puts our 400 dollar put position 57 dollars in the money which will more than offset the loss on the call position.
Further more the options bought expired 7/20 since we planned on selling them at market open. The cheap short expiration options allowed to limit the loss taken on either direction.
NFLX tendency for large dollar moves after hours makes it a great candidate for straddles as it allows the winning position to outweigh the loosing position and be sold for an immediate profit
NFLX 100 ma is at 338, a vital level to watch for a test and point of reversal.
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