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Economic Cycles

possible 10 years breakout irrigation stock MAHINDRA EPCMAHINDRA EPC IRRIGATION 3months chart, price is standing near 10 years trendline and a breakout on closing basis will give a good rally. This is agriculture related FMCG script. Mahindra EPC Irrigation Ltd., incorporated in the year 1981, is a Small Cap company (having a market cap of Rs 409.26 Crore) operating in Irrigation & Allied Services sector. Mahindra EPC Irrigation Ltd. key Products/Revenue Segments include Micro Irrigation Systems And Other Agri. Related Products
BSE:MAHEPCLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
Nifty Astro Technical Analysis from September 2024 to March 2025Saturn's Transit and Market Impact Saturn Transit: From Capricorn to Aquarius from March 5, 1993 to June 2, 1995. Market Fall: Began when Saturn entered the third pada of Sadayam Nakshatra on September 12, 1994, until Saturn entered Pisces on June 2, 1995. Sensex Decline: Fell from an all-time high of 4643 to 2966 (a 36% drop) over nine months. Similar Situation in 2024-2025 Recent All-Time High: 26,277 on September 27, 2024. Projected Decline: Saturn will enter Pisces by March 30, 2025. Expected Fall: Considering a 4% average monthly decline over six months, a 24% drop is projected, amounting to 6307 points. Target for Nifty: Should fall to around 20,000 by March 31, 2025 based on percentage-based correction. Time-Based Correction: The lowest value in 1994-95 was 2966, which had earlier occurred on December 1, 1993, equivalent to 20,500 on December 1, 2023. Astrological View: Nifty is expected to correct to approximately 19,900 to 20,500. Disclaimer: I am not Sebi Registered. This analysis is based on historical data, astrological patterns, and market trends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investment involve risks, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by ramkkyy
Phases of the market - The "AMD" Effect In trading, the terms accumulation, manipulation, and distribution represent distinct phases of market behavior, driven by the strategies of large institutional players such as banks, hedge funds, or market makers. These phases reflect how these entities operate to achieve their objectives while influencing market psychology and price movements. At the core of these phases lies the concept of supply and demand. However, recognizing where these phases occur within the market is crucial for traders. Let’s break them down for better understanding: Let us breakdown these terms to understand them in a better way : 1. Accumulation Phase : This is when big players, like banks or hedge funds, start buying a lot of shares of a stock or asset without causing the price to rise too much. They do it quietly so that others don’t notice what they’re up to. The price tends to remain flat and trades within a narrow range since fewer trades are happening. A lot of traders tend to loose the plot here since they are unable to understand if this accumulation is occurring in the wholesale area or the retail area and this is the KEY!!! If prices are accumulating in the wholesale area it is more likely the prices are going to push to the upside than downside. This phase is generally ignored by most retail traders and investors as they consider this as a dull market environment. This is highlighted in a yellow rectangle on the chart. 2. Manipulation Phase : This is a phase where big players intentionally create sharp price swings to confuse or scare smaller traders (retail traders). The goal is to trick people into making the wrong moves, like selling too early or buying at the wrong time. Usually the big players create sudden spikes to the upside or downside. These spikes in general trend to hit majority of the stop losses of the retail traders causing them to loose money more frequently. Many smaller traders lose money here because they react emotionally or fall for fake signals, not realizing they’re being played by smarter, bigger players. This is highlighted in a blue rectangle on the chart 3. Distribution Phase: This is the stage where the big players move the market significantly to the upside or to the downside depending upon the prices being in the wholesale or the retail section. This phase generally tends to have higher volumes. Majority of the retail traders tend to enter at the very end of this phase and get trapped in the market. This is highlighted in an orange rectangle on the chart This cycle often repeats itself forming the basis of the Wyckoff Market Cycle. Since price is fractal in nature these phases occur on all time frames. For illustration purposes we have taken an example of a Nifty chart. I have manually plotted the phases of the market and illustrated how these phases play out however these phases can be coded using pine script as well. I have divided the swing high and the swing low in two parts. The lower section signifies" wholesale area" where the big players would be buyers and the upper section signifies retail prices where the big players would be sellers. Now if you watch the wholesale area carefully all the manipulations are taking place in the downward direction(highlighted in blue rectangle) which is signifying that prices are moving down first before moving up. The retail trader is getting trapped in the false breakout to the upside and the moment that happens he wants to "Buy" and keeps a stop loss below the consolidation only for the stop loss to get triggered first and then price moving in the intended direction. Similarly, in the "retail area", manipulations often occur in the upward direction (highlighted in the blue rectangle). This means prices initially move higher before reversing downward. Retail traders frequently fall into the trap of reacting to a **false breakdown**. When prices appear to break down, these traders rush to "sell" and place their stop-loss orders above the consolidation. Unfortunately, their stop-losses are often triggered first, only for the price to then move in the intended direction afterward. This pattern is a common occurrence in the market, happening almost daily. It underscores the importance of understanding these manipulative moves to strategically place stop-loss orders in safer locations. Relying solely on market phases to make trading decisions is not enough to ensure consistent success. Instead, combining this knowledge with an understanding of the **bigger picture**—the overall price structure and market context—is essential. Once this framework is established, traders can confidently apply any price action strategy for entry and exit points. With practice, identifying these phases on your charts becomes much easier. I hope you find this information valuable, and with some effort, you’ll be able to spot these patterns regularly. Good luck, and happy trading!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by VishalSubandh
11
IOC at a Crossroads: Will Bulls or Bears Dominate Next?Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is at a crucial juncture with key levels shaping its next move. Key Levels: ->Resistance: ₹180-₹190 has been a strong barrier. ->Support: ₹129.60 is a critical support level. ->Intermediate Resistance: ₹145.51 is acting as a key hurdle. Trend: ->Overall: The stock remains in a downtrend, trading below the descending trendline. ->Short-Term: There’s a slight recovery, but the downtrend still holds. Volume: >Recent volume indicates participation at key levels but lacks strong bullish momentum. Strategy: >For Bulls: Wait for a breakout above ₹145.51 and the trendline for a potential rally towards ₹160-₹170. Keep a stop-loss below ₹140. ->For Bears: If IOC fails to break ₹145.51, consider shorting with a target at ₹129.60 and a stop-loss above ₹146. What’s your take on IOC’s next move? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NSE:IOC
by TraderChhabra
ipo stock UNITED HEAT TRANSFERAbove 108 we can see a bullish momentum in the price as pert advance technical analysis. United Heat Transfer Limited, India is a complete engineering manufacturing company with a range of Shell & Tube Heat Exchangers, Air Cooled Heat Exchangers, Marine Heat Exchangers, Safe Tube Heat Exchangers, Moisture Separators, Automatic Backflush Filters, Pressure Vessels & Process Flow Skids Equipment. The company extends its expertise with the growing national & multinational OEM industry for Heat Exchangers, Moisture Separators, Pressure Vessels & Process Flow Skids.
NSE:UHTLLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
"BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL.” Subject : During this period, I view the market downturn as an opportunity to acquire quality stocks at lower valuations for long-term investment. As mentioned above, I am particularly interested in key levels for potential entry points. I wanted to share these insights with all of you, hoping you find them helpful. Thank you, everyone!🙏🏻 The recent downturn in both Indian and global stock markets can be attributed to several key factors: 1. Monetary Policy Shifts: The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce the number of projected interest rate cuts for 2025 has heightened investor concerns. 2. Rising Treasury Yields: A significant selloff in long-dated U.S. government debt has pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly seven months. This trend poses a threat to stock valuations, as higher yields make risk-free government debt more attractive compared to equities. 3. Geopolitical Concerns: The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and his proposed economic policies, have raised fears of increased inflation and global trade tensions. These uncertainties contribute to market instability. * Escalating conflicts in regions such as the Middle East have increased market volatility and investor uncertainty. 4. Foreign Investor Behavior: In India, heavy selling by foreign institutional investors has exerted downward pressure on markets. This trend is influenced by global monetary policies and a reduced appetite for risk amid prevailing uncertainties. 5. Sector-Specific Declines: Sectors such as financials and information technology have experienced notable losses, further dragging down market indices. These combined factors have led to a bearish trend in both Indian and international stock markets in recent weeks. About Reliance industries limited 📉: 1. Weak Performance in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment: RIL's O2C business, a significant revenue contributor, has faced challenges due to shrinking margins amid global oversupply. In the second quarter of FY25, the company reported a 5% decline in net profit, largely attributed to poor performance in its oil refining and petrochemical business. This segment was significantly impacted by cheap Russian crude oil flooding the market, pushing product margins lower. 2. Delays in IPOs of Jio and Retail. 3. Slowing Growth in the Retail Business: RIL's retail division has encountered slower growth, influenced by factors such as rising real estate costs and increased. 4. Broader Market Trends and Investor Behavior. #valueinvesting. #indianstockmarket. #Reliance
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Sateesh07
Identifying Institutional footprints using Wyckoff AccumulationHere I am using 63Moons monthly chart to explain how Wyckoff Accumulation works. The Wyckoff Accumulation has 5 major phases. Phase A - Stopping the previous trend Phase A marks the stopping of prior downtrend. The Preliminary Support(PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax(SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors panic. This is a point of high volatility where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop then quickly reverses into a bounce also known as Automatic Rally(AR) as excessive supply is absorbed by buyers. The Secondary Test(ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point the trading volume and volatility tend to be lower. ST generally forms at or above the same price level as the SC, if the ST goes lower than that of Sc one should anticipate new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of AR set the boundaries of the trading range(TR). Phase B - Building the cause Phase B serves the function of building a cause for new uptrend. Basically the idea is that something cannot happen out of nowhere, that to see a change in price a root cause must first have been built. Generally causes are constructed through a major change of hands between well informed & uninformed operators in an anticipation of the next markup. This institutional accumulation takes a long time sometimes more than a year. As institutions do their due diligence and take their required positions. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B as well as upthrust type actions near the upper range of TR. Early on in Phase B the price swing tends to be wide and accompanied with high volume. As professionals absorb the supply the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that the supply is likely to have been exhausted the stock is ready for Phase C. Phase C - Test In Phase C the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply. In Wyckoffian Analysis a successful test of supply is represented by a spring(shakeout). A low volume spring(or low volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely ready to move up. A spring is a price move below the support level of the trading range (which is established by low of STs in Phase A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back to TR. The spring action is very important and ideal because the greater the movement, the more liquidity you will be able to capture and there the more gasoline the subsequent movement will have. Phase D - Trend within range Phase D consists of breakout and confirmation events. After the shakeout event the price should now develop a clear trend movement within the range with wide candles. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances known as Signs of Strength(SOS) on widening price spreads and increasing volume as well as reactions (Last point of Support LPS)on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D the price will move at least to the top of the Trading range. LPS in this phase are excellent places to initiate long positions. Phase E - Trend out of range In Phase E the stock breaches the trading range. This phase consists of impulsive and reactive movements and some shakeouts which are short lived. The price here abandons the structure upon which the cause has been built previously and begins a new trend as an effect of the same. Coming to the chart of 63 Moons any pullback near 180-160 is an excellent place to initiate positions. The Phase E is gonna start soon in this scrip. Hope you liked my analysis.
BSE:63MOONSLong
by nishant_bhatt
14
NAM-INDIA Interesting Time analysis with Fibonacci Time zonesOn NAM_INDIA when you apply Fibonacci Time on Oct 2018 trough to Mar 2020 trough you see each subsequent peak or trough is formed on next Fibonacci like peak was formed on 2nd and trough was formed on 3rd. Stock is out of consolidation last week, making newer highs, no overhead resistances, and last week highest 52 weekly volume was seen. This give idea that by 5th Fib time zone it can remain upwards trajectory. Combining this with basic macro and qualitative analysis can also give us hint. You know that mutual funds inflows have drastically increased in recent years so Nippon is likely to be biggest beneficiary of rising mutual funds investments. As on Oct 2024 this is 4th largest company in India as per Assets under Management(AUM) other are 1. SBI Mutual Fund(Not listed), 2. ICICI Prudential (Not listed), 3. HDFC AMC (Listed but already a mega cap). Disclosure : I have added first tranche in stock and will add more on pullback and bounce from 730 zones with max 6-7% stop. Do let me know your thoughts in comments. DISCLAIMER: There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The stock and its levels discussed are solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgment while investing/Trading decisions. Seek help of your financial advisor before investing/trading. Investment Warnings: We would like to draw your attention to the following important investment warnings. -Investment is subject to market risks. -The value of shares and investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. -Investors may not get back the amount they invested - losing one's shirt is a real risk. -Past performance is not a guide to future performance. -I may or may not trade this analysis --------------------------(((((LIKE)))))-------------------------------
NSE:NAM_INDIALong
by Niftydirection
$AG setting up for a rip your face off rally #tothemoonFirst Majestic is a hated stock as of now, it also has the largest short position in the entire silver miners listed in NYSE. Bad sentiments and frustrated investors is a great combination to identify when a sector bottoms. Looking at the price action as of now, especially from $4.5 to $7.8 it looks like a strong bullish reversal. Also this is a institution move, smart money is buying silently. Also with silver heading to new highs, which means that silver miners are turning healthy. Many silver miners are making decent margins already around 15-20% OPM, the higher silver prices go the more Free Cash Flow will be generated which will directly impact bottom line. And, the valuations are dirt cheap. Reasons why like like First Majestic : - Acquired Gatos Silver recently, by this deal the net AISC improves, i feel it should be around $20-18. Before acquisition NYSE:AG AISC was $25, Gatos Silver being a low cost producer should now cumulatively bring the AISC down. - They also announced a share repurchase program which is a positive. - They are the only silver miner with a Mint capacity, First Mint Store. Unlike other mints, which are either government-owned or privately held. Good addition to capture the entire value chain. Well at current valuation and where the silver price is at its hard for me to see the downside. So i may be biased. I will only exit this scrip if i see Silver go below $23. That is my exit criteria. Disclaimer : This analysis is purely for education. As i am invested in this scrip I may be biased. Don't take this as an investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before any speculative investments.
NYSE:AGLong
by nishant_bhatt