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Economic Cycles

Combining Time cycle+Channel+Candle-stickI tried putting Elliot wave label on Asian paint daily,weekly and monthly chart and couldn't come to any logical conclusion,as the uptrend didnt followed any fib rule's neither did any major swing have an internal structure similar to elliot pattern cumulatively which could make an elliot pattern. Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money. This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion. Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future. observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle. To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts. Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome. Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
NSE:ASIANPAINTEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
17
GNA AXELS : Wave counts + Time cycleIn this post i have tried analyzing chart by combining both price/volumes and time factor simultaneously. For deciding trend and predicting price i have used Elliot wave theory and for timing and entry/exit i have used cycle theory. Elliot wave theory Impulse wave rule: 1)Wave 2 can't retrace wave 1 entirely 2)Wave 3 can't be shortest of wave 1,3 and 5 3)Wave 4 can't enter wave 1 price action zone. Time rules of Neo wave (Extention of Elliot wave) 1)Wave 2 takes equal or more time then wave 1 took to form 2)Wave 4 takes equal or more time then wave 3 took to form Wave labeling is done by following this rules. Wave Count Primary : Wave 4(Green) Intermediate : Wave A(White) Minor : Wave C(Orange) not shown. Analysis: As far as wave count's are concerned, since covid low's we are seeing impulsive rise in which we have completed wave 3 on Primary degree(green) and currently we are in Primary wave 4,Intermediate wave A, and going ahead prices will continue to correct or stay side-ways until Primary wave 4 is done,as wave 3 was extremely extended possibility of Primary wave 4 being an running flat is low meaning any forth coming bounce will not give us new high. Time wise :As per Neo wave rule 1) Primary wave 4 can continue till December 2022 hence entering at current levels is not advisable. Price wise :Support areas for Primary wave 4 to end. 1)We have 50 % retracement of Primary wave 3 coming at 641 along with minor wave 4 low's at 655 along with 200 ema average @ 620 which would keep increasing,there by making price action support zone of 640-660. 2)61.8% retracement of Primary wave 3 @ 530 and previous All Time High coming at 555 level(Confluence for price support) along with running intermediate trendline(white) making price action support Zone of 530-555. 3)Theoratically Primary wave 4 end's near Intermediate wave 4 of extended Primary wave 3 which is coming at 360 levels,we also have 80% retracement of Primary wave 3 coming at 360 level(Confluence for price support). JM Hurst Cycle theory: It states that stock prices follows definite cycle and achieve significant lows or trough's at the end(beginning) of each cycle.During any cycle price makes meaning low's around every cycle period time zone.Post a cycle low zone, prices reverses or trend changes,and if the low's made during cycle period time zone get's broken in the next cycle then during that entire cycle prices tend to correct.After his years of observation JM Hurst has found Nominal Cycle model which describes standard cycle's found in the markets he researched.One of the cycle he mentioned in Nominal model is of 20 weeks(which is being followed over here).There are many principles of cycle theory which i am not describing over here as it would complicate things. Time Cycle: 22 week Since beginning GNA AXLES seems to be following 22 weeks cycle meaning after every 22 weeks meaning full low is formed,post which we have seen prices going up and it this low is broken in the next cycle then during that entire cycle prices has corrected.Over here i have somewhere i have taken 23 weeks and somewhere 24 weeks just to capture exact low's however it can be seen that most of the time prices has formed low on 22nd week indicating stock is following 22 week cycle.As of now we are nearing cycle low time zone(week ending on 6th December)meaning after first or second week of December we can see minor bounce in the prices as per time cycle. Combining Volumes: Volumes were rising during this entire rise from covid low's during every impuslive wave high formation ie from Intermediate 1 of Primary 3 till Minor 3 of Intermediate 5 of Primary 3,and we can clearly see volume divergence on minor 5 high as it was achieved on an significantly low volume compare to minor 3 high. Conclusion: Price and time are not in favour of bulls hence investor or trader should keep stop-loss on there existing long positions depending upon there risk appetite and fresh long's should be avoided until Primary wave 4 is done.Any bounce from current price should be used to exit long positions. Disclaimer:The analysis done in this post is just for education purpose and to introduce concept of time cycle,no position should be build or exited solely on it's basis.
NSE:GNAEducation
by UNDERDOG-29
1
Hindalco-Neo wave count Current pattern: WXY double correction Both correction have taken Bow-Tie diametric form(7 leg pattern,Expansion in first 3 leg and compression in last 3 leg). Right now it seems like second correction is done and current fall can be wave X or wave 1(star of new impulse on the downside) Shown horizontal dashed lines are retracement(23,38,50,62) levels of second correction. Notice through out this up move price has taken support of lower channel which it seems like will be broken in current fall.If price goes below 475 and gives closing below it in next 2 day's it will give 2 stage confirmation of TL breach and faster retracement of previous swing meaning bigger move on the downside can come in near future. Personally i feel metals are way to over stretched on the upside and it's time for them to move down.I have posted charts of Sail and have shared link of my analysis on tata steel on this platform and both charts are showing sign of weakness. Hindalco being an aluminium and copper producing company has shown divergence from steel producing stock in metal sector up until now,but since last three days it has aligned itself with the broader markets and on the charts it seems like completion of double correction as well. We can also see that price is following 18-days cycle and price has reversed around cycle low zone on 11-12 occasion.And the next cycle low period is coming on 27-10-21,hence bounce can be seen in price around that day and one should look to exit longs or build short position around that time. Trade setup criteria 1)Prices needs to close below 475 in next 2 day's. 2)If 1st criteria is meet,then one should look to short the stock on bounce till 495-500(broken channel then act as Resistance). 3)If We should get a reversal candle in the form of shooting star,bearish pearcing,bearish engulfing around channel levels then one can initiate short trade on the next day when the low's of the reversal candle get's taken out. stop-loss would be 530 on the upside and expected targets would be 475-425-389-360 on the downside.Time frame for this trade would be minimum 1 month. DISCLAIMER:There is no guarantee of profits or no exceptions from losses. The study provided is solely the personal views of my research. You are advised to rely on your judgment while investing/Trading decisions. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Investment is subject to market risks. Seek help of your financial advisors before investing/trading. I may or may not trade this analysis
NSE:HINDALCOShort
by UNDERDOG-29
8
Touchwood Entertainment BreakoutAs we can see in the chart, stock goes into the consolidation or creates flag and whenever it comes near 44 SMA, there is a breakout. After the fall of 47% we can see that stock is creating new swing high. We can consider each breakout as small flag and pole or look at the bigger picture and see that stock is moving in between 2 parallel lines which are expanding, which means breakout can be even bigger this time. So one can go for swing trade with the SL below 44 SMA and ASA stock touches or comes near upper line you can book profit.
NSE:TOUCHWOODLong
by Vinay227