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Economic Cycles

RBLBANK changing trend.The stock is showing a pattern of change in trend, with a consistent upward movement characterized by traditional higher highs and higher lows. Compared to the previous movement dynamics, it now exhibits bullish behavior. Basis of Analysis: 1. EMA Support Seeking (35 EMA):** The stock is finding support at the 35 EMA, indicating a significant level for the monthly timeframe. 2. Change in Market Structure:** There is a clear shift in the market structure from lower lows and lower highs to higher highs and higher lows. 3. Constant Volume Decline:** Typically, after a certain period of volume decline, there is an outburst of volume, which may signal a strong bullish movement. Therefore, these factors suggest a potential bullish movement in the near future.
NSE:RBLBANKLong
by Ananthkaranth
BAJAJHIND - Possible 12-Year Breakout?Bajajhind (Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Ltd) closed yesterday at 36.25, bringing it close to the critical level of 39. A monthly close above 39 could potentially push the stock to 50 or even 58 levels. This stock attempted to break past 39 in February 2024 but failed to close above it. Since then, it has been trading within the range of 26.80 - 40.50. Keep an eye on volumes and the monthly close for confirmation of this breakout. While technical indicators look promising, always conduct your own research and consider fundamental factors before making any investment decisions.
NSE:BAJAJHINDLong
by PriteshPalan
1
Dabur Long Term TargetsThis is a Weekly chart. Here are some observations: 1. Price has been in a downtrend since Oct 2021 forming a large cup potentially finishing around Jun 2025 with neckline at ₹650 2. The red trendline still has to be broken to officially get into the uptrend 3. The recent green trendline has been breached following the healthy Quarterly results posted yesterday 4. Price has touched levels of 500 multiple times suggesting it to be a strong support zone 5. Multiple resistance levels on the way up particularly at 565, 600 and 650. All of them can be used as short term targets as well 6. Final target at 800 based on the cup (500 to 650) Growth Drivers: 1. Economy has faced high inflation in recent times reflecting in the downtrend of stock performance 2. Consumer companies are reporting rural uptick in sales 3. Global consensus of rate cuts in 2024/2025 4. India’s growing population and per capita income Verdict: Considering both the macroeconomic factors and the fundamental/technical combination of Dabur, it seems like it has bottomed out at around 500 and is ready for the uptrend likely to hit ₹800 in the coming years. A handle formation is likely at ₹650, so the earnings have to be tracked closely. Happy trading!
NSE:DABURLong
by tej_s9
2
Historical Impact of Fed Interest Rates on Dow JonesThe current market cycle looks eerily similar to the 2005 - 2010 era. Dow started going up after the last rate hike in expectation of a rate cut and eventually peaked around the time the cut started i.e. Sep 2007. Very similar behaviour is evident in current cycle where market has been rising since the last rate hike. If the Fed cut is expected in June 2024, then there is still some upmove left, but we are close to the top. P.S.: 1: Numbers mentioned are the rates after the said action. 2: Similar price action was developing in 2015-2020 period, however, it can't be considered as a valid reference on account of COVID crash.
TVC:DJI
by pankajarora232
5
SHIB MEME RESTING SHIB: Meme Token Breakout Potential The popular meme token SHIB has seen a significant spike in interest over the past 10 days, with its price rallying alongside the increased attention. Currently, SHIB is resting on the 10MA, which could act as a support level and bounce off. Technical Analysis: - The recent price action has formed a bullish flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential breakout in the direction of the previous trend. - Trading volumes have decreased significantly after the initial spike. Risks: - SHIB is a highly volatile meme token, and its price movements can be unpredictable and influenced by social media trends.
Long
by jashjacob
PVRINOX Going to Breakout, All details sharedI have been observing an increasing momentum in PVR INOX and Along with this increasing momentum PVR INOX has also closed above a crucial resistance on Thursday, breaking out of a range between 1350 and 1400. This stock has been in this range for a period of 1 month, therefore its breakout indicates a good rally. Defintely buy PVRINOX for short term move. Entry Price 1400 Stoploss 1380 Target 1480 Happy Trading Yamini Prabu NSE, NISM Certified TA Independent Trader and Trainer
NSE:PVRINOXLong
by Yamini_swingtrader
USDJPY UPDATEUSD/JPY technical analysis The above-estimated CPI print saw USD/JPY fall ~20 pips, which is by no means a particularly big move. But it has helped the pair retrace further from its highs as we head closer towards the key US PCE inflation report later this week. Technically, I am now seeking evidence of a swing low for a potential swing trade long on the 1-hour chart. Prices remain trend support, and today’s low stalled just above a volume node from a prior congestion zone. Low-volatility retracements towards today’s low could be appealing for dip buyers, who anticipate for prices to break above the weekly pivot point.
by affinitymarkets12
Time to Sell_ RelianceNamaste! Any stock can not sustain it's bullish behaviour, without a correction. Reliance has to correct, before going up again. It is the proved nature of markets. Why selling any stock is a good idea. 1. To buy it back at a lower prices, 2. To full-fill urgent needs of money, 3. To let the weak hands enjoy the euphoria and not to stay in the markets when there is an extreme optimism. So, I am suggesting a logical price to book profits in Reliance. The price would be Rs 3100. Why? Look, the people who would have bought at around Rs 1100, will be getting around 2.9 times of there investment amount. Hence, they will be booking profits, resulting in a correction. Okay, I will be sell it at the above price, but what if I want to buy it again. A: You have to wait for greater than 15% correction from All time highs, before buying it again. Because, In India, LTCG is around 10%, so you have to get the stock back at 15% or more correction, to compensate for your extra efforts. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding of the markets. Please do your due-diligence and you are solely responsible for your decisions.
NSE:RELIANCEShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
3
Q&A_ Is Nifty heading for a bear market?Namaste! I have been tracking DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) for quite a while. The bear market is defined as 20% correction in benchmark indices from the all time highs. SPX (S&P 500) has fell into bear market twice (2nd after retracement), it closed below 20% line on daily as well as weekly candles . But it did recovered from those levels until recently, it closed again, it is in a bear market now . However, Dow Jones hasn't closed below 20% levels at the above mentioned period. This time, it has closed below 20% level on daily candle. I will be 100% sure of a bear market if DJI closes below on Weekly candles. If DJI fall into a bear market, there is a very highest probability our Nifty 50 will to. It can take Nifty to 14600 levels. How to plan this bear market? 1. For people already invested: Don't sell your current holdings to buy at cheap. It will be a add more opportunity. You can consider either investing 50% of remaining investing amount now, 50% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels or whole remaining capital at 15100 levels. 2. For people waiting for investment: I would advice to invest 30% of the capital now and remaining 70% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels. These levels are drawn assuming Nifty will create the last swing low at 15100 level, and 14600 level is a psychological and a 20% level. Will all the stocks in Nifty 50 fall at the same speed? A: Nope. Overvalued blue-chip / large-cap stocks will fall more than those of (undervalued) fundamentally strong. Mid cap and small cap will fall at greater speed after taking above points into consideration. So if you hold small and mid-cap, get ready to stomach more downside. BUT DO NOT SELL. . Warren Buffett doesn't sell and other notable investors I know advice the same. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. This article must be assumed as a opinion only not a trading/investing call. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
TVC:DJI
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall?Namaste! US Markets substantially affect global market and their indices. There are two main indices which I track most often. DJI (Dow Jones) and SPX (S&P 500). I expect it to be in a downfall in the coming weeks/months. I follow a rule of thumb for a reversal (respecting support or resistance) is that it must close below low of the resistance testing candle within the next 3 candles. My understanding says, "there is a >60% probability of prices moving in the candles closing direction if the prices consolidate". Consolidation can happen near the resistance levels. So, it means there is a <40% probability of reversing (respecting resistance) if the prices consolidate. The logic is very simple. If the sellers were powerful enough, the price will fall quickly, whereas consolidation indicates their unwillingness to sell or more buying pressure than selling at the level. So, the 02 Nov candle closed below the level, hence the selling pressure is strong here meaning more probably price will fall. It is my opinion because I said this happens 60% of the time. This could be that 40% when I am wrong. Disclaimer: The above written article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
2
Q&A_ What is a book value?Namaste! In this article, I am sharing my understanding of the following subjects. Please correct me if I am wrong in any of the mentioned things. 1. Book value is a value of total assets over total liabilities. Means, Total Assets - Total Liabilities. 2. Meaning, the amount available to the shareholders (per share) whenever the company goes into liquidation. 3. Book value highly depends on the nature of business. For banking companies, it is higher because they treat their given loans as assets. Whereas, for IT companies it is very low because their business doesn't require much of the assets like Plant & Machinery (they're not a manufacturing company), etc. They have a lot of employees as their assets, but by definition, employees are not assets since companies do not have control over them. 4. Book value increases/decreases overtime because of the following factors:- a. Asset value decreasing factors: Depreciation (plant and machinery, etc), so as the Cap-Ex (Capital Expenditure). You know, this is a substantial expense, especially for the telecom companies and manufacturing companies, etc. This is not the case for IT companies. For banking companies, increasing NPAs (non-performing assets). Decreasing market price of assets (for e.g. companies that have an intangible asset like "Patents", they are in demand now but soon the technology becomes old and priceless). "Goodwill", goodwill increase or decrease, totally depends on how the acquirer company values and calculates it. b. Liability increasing factors: Loan interest payments (because our total liabilities increase). New loans and provisions, lawsuits (contingent liabilities), etc. 5. So, when the company goes bankrupt, your stock price doesn’t actually become zero. Because, you will be getting something in return due to a book value per share. After secured creditors, debentures, preference shareholders. Fun-fact: Reliance Power shares are still publicly traded because it didn’t liquidate till now. It has a book value of Rs 36.1 per share, mostly coming from assets like land (Rs 5,887 crore), Plant and Machinery (Rs 37,137 crore), etc. 6. The share price is still falling, one reason is that the interest burden is still increasing YoY. Some banks have written it as a NPA, some are still trying to restructure.
NSE:RPOWER
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
4