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Economic Cycles

Time to Sell_ RelianceNamaste! Any stock can not sustain it's bullish behaviour, without a correction. Reliance has to correct, before going up again. It is the proved nature of markets. Why selling any stock is a good idea. 1. To buy it back at a lower prices, 2. To full-fill urgent needs of money, 3. To let the weak hands enjoy the euphoria and not to stay in the markets when there is an extreme optimism. So, I am suggesting a logical price to book profits in Reliance. The price would be Rs 3100. Why? Look, the people who would have bought at around Rs 1100, will be getting around 2.9 times of there investment amount. Hence, they will be booking profits, resulting in a correction. Okay, I will be sell it at the above price, but what if I want to buy it again. A: You have to wait for greater than 15% correction from All time highs, before buying it again. Because, In India, LTCG is around 10%, so you have to get the stock back at 15% or more correction, to compensate for your extra efforts. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding of the markets. Please do your due-diligence and you are solely responsible for your decisions.
NSE:RELIANCEShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
3
Q&A_ Is Nifty heading for a bear market?Namaste! I have been tracking DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average) for quite a while. The bear market is defined as 20% correction in benchmark indices from the all time highs. SPX (S&P 500) has fell into bear market twice (2nd after retracement), it closed below 20% line on daily as well as weekly candles . But it did recovered from those levels until recently, it closed again, it is in a bear market now . However, Dow Jones hasn't closed below 20% levels at the above mentioned period. This time, it has closed below 20% level on daily candle. I will be 100% sure of a bear market if DJI closes below on Weekly candles. If DJI fall into a bear market, there is a very highest probability our Nifty 50 will to. It can take Nifty to 14600 levels. How to plan this bear market? 1. For people already invested: Don't sell your current holdings to buy at cheap. It will be a add more opportunity. You can consider either investing 50% of remaining investing amount now, 50% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels or whole remaining capital at 15100 levels. 2. For people waiting for investment: I would advice to invest 30% of the capital now and remaining 70% at Nifty 15100 or 14600 levels. These levels are drawn assuming Nifty will create the last swing low at 15100 level, and 14600 level is a psychological and a 20% level. Will all the stocks in Nifty 50 fall at the same speed? A: Nope. Overvalued blue-chip / large-cap stocks will fall more than those of (undervalued) fundamentally strong. Mid cap and small cap will fall at greater speed after taking above points into consideration. So if you hold small and mid-cap, get ready to stomach more downside. BUT DO NOT SELL. . Warren Buffett doesn't sell and other notable investors I know advice the same. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. This article must be assumed as a opinion only not a trading/investing call. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
TVC:DJI
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
Q&A_ Is Dow Jones and global markets ready for a freefall?Namaste! US Markets substantially affect global market and their indices. There are two main indices which I track most often. DJI (Dow Jones) and SPX (S&P 500). I expect it to be in a downfall in the coming weeks/months. I follow a rule of thumb for a reversal (respecting support or resistance) is that it must close below low of the resistance testing candle within the next 3 candles. My understanding says, "there is a >60% probability of prices moving in the candles closing direction if the prices consolidate". Consolidation can happen near the resistance levels. So, it means there is a <40% probability of reversing (respecting resistance) if the prices consolidate. The logic is very simple. If the sellers were powerful enough, the price will fall quickly, whereas consolidation indicates their unwillingness to sell or more buying pressure than selling at the level. So, the 02 Nov candle closed below the level, hence the selling pressure is strong here meaning more probably price will fall. It is my opinion because I said this happens 60% of the time. This could be that 40% when I am wrong. Disclaimer: The above written article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
TVC:DJIShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
2
Q&A_ What is a book value?Namaste! In this article, I am sharing my understanding of the following subjects. Please correct me if I am wrong in any of the mentioned things. 1. Book value is a value of total assets over total liabilities. Means, Total Assets - Total Liabilities. 2. Meaning, the amount available to the shareholders (per share) whenever the company goes into liquidation. 3. Book value highly depends on the nature of business. For banking companies, it is higher because they treat their given loans as assets. Whereas, for IT companies it is very low because their business doesn't require much of the assets like Plant & Machinery (they're not a manufacturing company), etc. They have a lot of employees as their assets, but by definition, employees are not assets since companies do not have control over them. 4. Book value increases/decreases overtime because of the following factors:- a. Asset value decreasing factors: Depreciation (plant and machinery, etc), so as the Cap-Ex (Capital Expenditure). You know, this is a substantial expense, especially for the telecom companies and manufacturing companies, etc. This is not the case for IT companies. For banking companies, increasing NPAs (non-performing assets). Decreasing market price of assets (for e.g. companies that have an intangible asset like "Patents", they are in demand now but soon the technology becomes old and priceless). "Goodwill", goodwill increase or decrease, totally depends on how the acquirer company values and calculates it. b. Liability increasing factors: Loan interest payments (because our total liabilities increase). New loans and provisions, lawsuits (contingent liabilities), etc. 5. So, when the company goes bankrupt, your stock price doesn’t actually become zero. Because, you will be getting something in return due to a book value per share. After secured creditors, debentures, preference shareholders. Fun-fact: Reliance Power shares are still publicly traded because it didn’t liquidate till now. It has a book value of Rs 36.1 per share, mostly coming from assets like land (Rs 5,887 crore), Plant and Machinery (Rs 37,137 crore), etc. 6. The share price is still falling, one reason is that the interest burden is still increasing YoY. Some banks have written it as a NPA, some are still trying to restructure.
NSE:RPOWER
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
4
Chennai Petro - Multi Year BreakoutCant Miss this Breakout !!! Look Closely Counter is breaking multiyear High of Nov 2007 and Oct2017. Forming a Double Bottom as well in this Process. The Oil & Gas Index has also given a monthly Demand Zone Pull and the Index itself is moving +500 Points. This is supporting my logic Should go a Long way if the breakout above 445 sustains. Take entry at CMP 441-445 T1 - 478 shorterm T2 - 557 midterm T3 - 700 Long Term SL - 424 Fundamentals for Value Investors Strong Annual EPS Growth High Revenue and Profit Growth with High Return on Capital Deployed (ROCE) and Low PE ratio Effectively using its capital to generate profit - RoCE improving in last 2 years High growth and High Return on Equity (ROE) with Low PE ratio Effectively using Shareholders fund - Return on equity (ROE) improving since last 2 year Strong Momentum: Price above short, medium and long term moving averages Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding
NSE:CHENNPETROLong
by MoneyMentors
Q&A_ Is Adani group in a bubble?Namaste! Adani group is in a bubble, if I consider the following points. 1. Rs 400 to Rs 4000 in a matter of 2 years. This isn't a behaviour of a large-cap stock. 2. The Adani group companies have borrowed hugely. Just look at the debt to equity ratio of Adani companies:- Adani Enterprises: 1.31 Adani Ports: 1.04 Adani Transmissions: 3.16 Adani Total Gas: 0.45 Adani Power: 1.87 Adani Green: 7.70 Adani Wilmar: 0.40 Average debt to equity is 2.275. Debt to equity above 1 is bad. 3. The overleveraged companies will mostly hit hard in a scenario of a recession. The central banks will increase interest rates to fight inflation, which will increase cost of borrowing. Interest rate payments in the over-leveraged companies will keep eating their current as well as future profits. This profits is already decreased because of a recession. You and me (consumers) will spend less on goods and services due to high cost of living, which has already decreased the profit in most of the companies' pocket. 4. Coming recession: Inflation has crossed highest in 4 decades in USA and UK, 3 decades in India, etc. The central banks will keep increasing interest rates to stabilise their respective economies. 5. The political friendship:- The friendship between current ruling party and Adani has been stronger due to the give-and-take relationship in the past. This is one of the reasons why people and investors are betting hard on Adani companies. 6. What should retail people do: A: Stay away from Adani group companies. There are tons of good undervalued companies so why would anyone only want Adani group company? Just because of FOMO (fear of missing out)? then, it's harmful in the long term especially to retail people. You know, the big investors (institutions) has expertise and knowledge to manage their losing bets. But retail people has only option to sell it at a loss. Recession has not been reflected in the Indian stock market now, but the big investors (institutions) will be lowering their stakes in these risky companies once they see weakness. What do you think about this analysis, please let me know. Disclaimer: The analysis I've shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. The future can not be predicted only be forecasted based on higher probability of happening. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:ADANIENT
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
3
WALCHAND NAGAR IND | Multi Year Triangle Breakout.NSE:WALCHANNAG Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. engages in the manufacture of engineering products. It operates through the following segments: Heavy Engineering, Foundry and Machine Shop, and Others. The Heavy Engineering segment engages in the engineering, fabrication, and manufacturing of machinery for sugar plants, cement plants, boilers and power plants, industrial and marine gears, mineral processing and EPC, petrochemicals, and space, defense, and nuclear power businesses. Walchand Nagar Ind. Technical Analysis on weekly time frame:- 1. Price has rebound from the strong support zone after a breakdown has failed. 2. The Symmetrical triangle is been in formation for the last 3.2 years and the location on the symmetrical triangle is bullish as it has formed around the support zone, so we can say Its extrinsically is bullish in nature and intrinsically too. 3. The Price is been Trading above 200 SMA which is a Bullish sign. 4. The price is been in a range for over 1.5 Decades and is currently at lower range support. Entry Aggrassiv can enter now and safe investors should wait for a retest of the triangle breakout zone it will add more confirmation to it. Target levels and stop-loss is mentioned on the chart. Walchand Nagar Ind. Fundamental Analysis Points:- 1. Company Turned into Net profit after many Years. 2. Revenue is increased and Long Term has been Reduced. 3. EPS is improving Marginally. 4. Although one concern is a reduction in assets. The above information is for educational purposes only, Before acting on any investment idea please do your own analysis and follow proper risk to reward. I Hope you found this helpful. Please like and comment. Keep Learning, Happy Trading!
NSE:WALCHANNAGLong
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
2