Gold Elliott - 5 Waves to top 2488 - Tower Top Candlestick
Recent Performance Update
As per the last idea published, we saw a significant bounce of $184 following the post-triangle analysis.
Last Idea on Gold
Clear 5-Wave Structure from 2304 Bottoms
Yellow metal has unfolded a clear 5-wave structure from the bottoms of 2304 to 2488 & reversal candle is unfolding from the tops of 2488.
Reversal Candle in Play
The Bearish Tower Top is a reversal candlestick pattern typically observed at the top of the trend which can be seen unfolding in the current scenario at the tops of 2488.
Bearish Tower Top Candlestick Pattern
A strong bearish candle has taken out the lows of the last few candlesticks while going up, which can be a strong signature unfolding in favor of the bears.
Bearish Signature Unfolding at 2488 Tops
Slipping below 2465, Gold has key and minor support at 2406 lows. Once the lows of 2406 and 2400 support zone are breached, Gold can slip down to important levels at 2355 and 2305 lows.
From WaveTalks
Abhishek
Elliottwaveforecasts
#Nifty directions and levels for July 16th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for July 16th:
Global markets are maintaining their range (based on the Dow Jones). Our local market has a moderately bullish trend. Today, the market may open neutral to slightly gap-down, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 13 points at 8:00 am.
Nifty and Bank Nifty have different structures: Nifty indicates a moderately bullish bias, while Bank Nifty indicates a range-bound market. Let's look at each one.
Nifty:
In the previous session, Nifty maintained a gap-up sentiment, but there was no big movement. Based on the wave structure, it could be a 5th wave, meaning a distribution wave. So, today we might see an initial correction. This is our first variation.
Alternatively, if the market pulls back and consolidates or breaks the supply zone, we can expect the rally to continue. in this case, If the market doesn't break the supply zone, it may consolidate between the supply zone and the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing.
> Without breaking this 38% level, it may maintain a bullish bias. A correction is expected only if it breaks the 38% level in the minor swing.
> that means, If it sharply rejects around the supply zone and breaks the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing, it may turn into a correction.
ULTRACEMCO - ELLIOT WAVE 5 IN MAKINGHi All,
This idea is about Ultratech Cement
Mkt Cap - 3L Cr
ROE - 12%
ROCE 15.3%
P/BV - 5.56
MktCap/Sales - 4.7
FCF - 2k Cr
Technicals
Price action being published is on a 1 hour TF. As can be seen by the pattern, Elliot waves are in motion. Wave 1 was an impulsive wave followed by Correction wave (Wave 2).
Ideally Wave 2 should correct to 50-60% as per Elliot theory & that is what happened during Wave 2 formation.
Wave 4 corrected again by 30% and point 4 above point 1 which all points to the validation of Elliot theory.
Wave 5 is about to commence which is as per the theory strongest impulse wave.
Cement Sector as a whole is doing well due to boost in infra sector.
Happy Trading,
Thanks,
Stock-n-Shine
Nifty Reaches 24,500 Target: Elliott Wave Analysis Disclaimer:
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Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
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General Election 2024: Impact on Nifty
The 2024 General Election resulted in a clear victory for the existing NDA government, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third term. This political stability had a positive impact on the Indian market index, Nifty.
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Pre-Exit Poll Movement
Before the election results were declared, we proposed an outlook for Nifty to reach 24,500 as a pre-exit poll objective. This prediction was published on TradingView as "Pre-Exit Poll Outlook - Bulls above 22,400 " on 31st May 2024.
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Achievement of Target
Following the election results, Nifty saw a significant rise from the lows of 21,281 on June 4, 2024, and successfully reached our proposed target of 24,500 on July 12, 2024. However, there was a knee-jerk reaction as the index failed to surpass the 400-seat mark announced during the election campaigns, leading to some volatility when the actual results were declared on June 4, 2024.
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Unfolding Structure: The Leading Diagonal
Since early March 2024, we have been discussing the potential for an explosive upside based on a leading diagonal pattern, also known as a Rising Wedge in traditional analysis. This Elliott wave pattern typically indicates a bullish trend, especially in the context of the 2024 General Election. We believed in the bullish scenario and termed it the "Leading Diagonal," expecting significant market movement.
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Why I Believe in Wave Analysis
As a Wave Analyst, my journey began with a curiosity about the market's patterns and behaviors. Eight years ago, in 2016, I started writing for TradingView and was given an opportunity to look into India Business for the brand during its early expansion years in India. On a personal front, I progressed to learn the nuances of wave analysis and started applying them to publicly traded liquid financial instruments. The results were astounding, providing 90-100% accuracy in the analysis. The science behind wave analysis is robust, but it does come with the limitation of alternate views if the price breaches the cardinal rules. More details on this will be discussed in my upcoming book on wave analysis (no ETA available at the moment).
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Pattern Analysis
Rising Wedge:
Often seen as bearish or bullish from a traditional technical analysis point of view, Elliott Wave analysis goes one step further by identifying the pattern's nature as bullish or bearish and can complement the unfolding events.
General Election 2024:
The election acted as a catalyst for the bullish trend.
Patience Rewarded:
Participants who held their positions since October 2023 are now reaping the benefits.
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Future Outlook
Key Psychological Level: 24,500
Nifty holding above the 24,500 level is crucial. If the index continues to bounce above this level, we anticipate the bull run to persist.
Target: 27,620
Our next target is 27,620, where the current rising wedge in Wave-1 should travel 162% of the minimum distance if this is to be Wave-3.
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Additional Insights
Reliance Long Term:
Nifty Explosive Series Episodes Starting Comex Copper:
These episodes as published on TradingView earlier, hinted at an explosive Nifty to unfold and how Dr. Copper’s move supported the outlook. This should be discussed as a different branch of technical analysis called Intermarket relations in my book, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment.
In conclusion, the political stability from the 2024 General Election has propelled Nifty into a strong bullish trend, with a key psychological level at 24,500 and a future target of 27,620.
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Regards From WaveTalks
Abhishek
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 11th.BankNifty had a solid correction in the previous session with not much of a pullback compared to Nifty. The structure indicates that if the market breaks the previous day low, then the correction will likely continue because the previous day's minor consolidation indicates that. This is our first variation, meaning if the gap-up doesn't sustain or the market takes a decline initially, then we can expect the correction to continue if it breaks the previous day's low.
The alternate variation is similar to Nifty: if the gap-up sustains and consolidates around the 23% or 38% fib level or breaks the 23% or 38% fib level with a solid candle, then the rally will likely continue.
#Nifty directions and levels for July 11th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for July 11th:
There are no significant changes in the global markets, which are still showing a moderately bullish trend. However, our local market is showing a moderately bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral to slightly gap-up start, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows an increase of 40 points (as of 8:00 AM).
Nifty and BankNifty structures differ from one another. Let's look at them one by one.
Nifty had a huge swing in the previous session. However, the structure is obviously a range market. Today, GiftNifty indicates a slightly positive start. If it rejects around the immediate resistance, then we can expect a correction, meaning the range market will likely continue. For this correction to happen, it should break the 38% fib level in the current swing. If it doesn't break the 38% fib level, it may go a little bit further up.
This sentiment also applies to the initial market decline.that means If the gap-up doesn't sustain or the initial market takes a decline, then use the same sentiment.
The alternate variation suggests that if the gap-up sustains and consolidates around the 78% fib level or breaks the 78% fib level with a solid candle, then the rally will likely continue.
LINC - BULLISH BREAKOUT - 2X CANDIDATEHi Folks,
There has been high accumulation in consumption sector. Recent surge of volume with decent delivery can be seen in linc in recent days. Overall, longer bullish trend on weekly charts is intect. After a decent time and price correction, upmove looks like prevailing again.
Elliott Wave Analysis - Long Term
1. On longer time frame (Weekly) - Left chart - Larger 4 wave stands completed.
2. Fifth wave has commenced after confirmation of brerakout with surge in volumes.
3. Targets are marked with fib projection and potential it can 2X from here.
Elliott Wave Analysis - Short Term
1. On Daily timeframe(right chart), we can see a start of new impulse.
2. First wave itself is a Leading diagonal and marked in channel which shows bullishness of this stock.
3. A clean abc structure is visible in 2 wave.
4. Breakout of 3 wave is evident, a bullish candle(Marubozu) can be seen with volume support taking out b of earlier abc structure.
Not a trade recommendation, please do your own due diligence.
Banknifty Wave analysis#Banknifty slowly moving upside inside the wedge with HH-HL structure...yet no weakness.
upside resistance 54000-54600
downside important higher low near 52000
One should patiently wait for structure and pattern breakdown for contra trend entry..
as still it is in buy on dip mode.
1:5 RR Trade: Sell Nifty below 23877 with SL 24120, Tgt 22670Based on Wave Analysis and the Ichimoku 1-Hour Time Frame, we have a good short opportunity with a very small stop loss.
Time: 12:52 PM, June 27th, 2024
Current Market Price: 24,024
Why Short Entry at 23,877?
Wave Analysis: Nifty has completed waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Wave 5 hit 127% today at 23,899 and touched the 24,000 psychological mark. We will have the first sign of confirmation if Nifty drops below 23,898 and sustains this level for 1 hour. It has to go for a correction. We will be wrong if Nifty crosses our stop loss after the entry is triggered.
Trendline Breakout: When Nifty breaks 23,877, we will have a trendline breakout, which will be our second confirmation for short positions.
Selling call options or selling Nifty futures with a monthly OTM CE hedge is a good option.
We will keep updating more in the update section.
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on our personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nifty Elliot Wave Analysis 2020-24 - With Subordinates CountingWe received many requests to count the Nifty chart with subordinate counts and potential targets. Here is our Elliott Wave count with detailed markings.
We are open to discussing this in detail. Feel free to comment!
Regards,
Team WaveMoku
Nifty - Pre Exit Poll Outlook: Bulls Above 22,400 Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
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Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Resistance: 23,000
What Unfolded Last Week:
The index retraced 600 points, making a low of 22,417 as expected pause below 23000 in the last idea.
Last Idea - Nifty Explosive (Part 3): From 22,000 to 23,000 in Record Time!
Future Expectations:
If Nifty surpasses the 23,000 mark, it will confirm that the bulls are in charge, reflecting the market optimism seen since early 2014.
Nifty has strong support in the 22,400-22,500 zone. Holding above this zone, we expect an upward move towards the 22,775-22,825 target zone. If it holds above 22,825, it can target 23,000. Beyond 23,000, bulls will take charge, potentially driving the index to 23,500 and later 24,500.
Note:
Strictly no trades below 22,400.
From WaveTalks
Abhishek
Bhel- Traders Trap at 275 on 4th March 2024 ( Wave Story)Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers!, can you hear them
Elliott Wave Analysis Insight
January 30, 2024: 230's to 240's
At the start of the year, BHEL's stock was trading between the 230's and 240's. Investors were cautioned about limited upside potential, especially below the 235 mark. It was predicted that the stock might regress towards the crucial level of 200.
Last Published on 30th Jan 2024
February 13, 2024: Lows of 200
True to the caution, on February 13, 2024, the stock descended to the lows of 200, sparking concerns among investors. However, BHEL managed to maintain its position above 200, offering hope for a potential recovery. A note of caution lingered - any decline below 200 could lead to a deeper plunge towards 165 & 113-120 support zone.
End of February 2024: Triangular Correction Completed
By the end of February, BHEL completed a triangular correction in its ongoing wave sequence. Despite this, caution prevailed as it was observed that Wave-E was truncated, setting the stage for a sharp rally.
March 4, 2024: Surge to 275.85
On March 4, 2024, BHEL's stock surged to 275.85, trapping traders on upside. However, the warning remained clear - maintaining above 200 it can push upside in 225-240's, while breaching 200 spelled trouble, leading to a slip towards 165 and the critical support zone of 113-120.
Post-March 5, 2024: Decline towards 206
Post-March 5, 2024, the stock experienced a decline towards 206, approaching the key support level of 200 in a an impulsive manner.
The familiar tale repeated itself - maintaining above 200 hinted at a potential upswing towards 225-240's, repeating same thing again & again.
while breaching 200 will trouble, leading to a slip towards 165 and the critical support zone of 113-120.
And so, the tale of BHEL continued, with its fluctuations and uncertainties.
From
WaveTalks
(Market Whispers!, Can you hear them)
Abhishek
Wishing you a Happy Holi-day! 🎉
Auropharma - Can You Catch Wave Top ,Recognise This Pattern ? Elliott Wave is a such an amazing scientific method, if you apply them & be humble & open to what market tells you, you are going to be rewarded like catching all the waves.
Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
From WaveTalks
Abhishek
Nifty : Explosive Part 2 - Towards 23000+ Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
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May 11, 2024
Overview
As an Elliott Wave analyst, I stress the need for having both a main plan (Plan A) and a backup plan (Plan B) when analyzing markets. If Plan A doesn't work, we quickly switch to Plan B. If both plans agree on the market direction, we expect strong results.
Recent Market Review
In a recent comment over last idea ( Comex Copper = Explosive Nifty : Part 1) with a colleague, Ashok, he mentioned that although the market was strong, a drop was expected soon. To which I confirmed YES on 5th May 2024 & Indeed market unfolded exactly as per our plans - In last week, Nifty Index fell by 400-500 points.
Copper and Nifty Correlation
Reminder of Previous Analysis:
If you missed our last report on how Comex Copper and the Nifty Index move together, remember that these trends greatly affect our predictions. Do read Comex Copper = Explosive Nifty : Part 1 mentioned below
Current Market Outlook
Key Levels to Watch:
- Key Support Level:21,700
- Critical Support Level:21,125
- If the market stays above these levels, we expect a significant rise, potentially pushing the Nifty above 23,000 by the end of May 2024 & early June 2024.
Stop losses:
Safe Traders Avoid Trading if NIfty Index dips & holds below 22000 level
Future Expectations
Anticipated Timeline
We are particularly focused on what happens around June 4, 2024. This will be a key moment to see if our predictions hold true.
Conclusion
The agreement between our main and backup plans, along with the market staying above key levels, points to a potential strong rise soon.
Have a great week ahead!
From
WaveTalks
Abhishek
Comex Copper = Explosive Nifty to Unfold in 2024 ?Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
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Copper Outlook
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1. Setting the Stage for Explosive Moves:
- Copper is recognized as a barometer of economic growth, and its performance can provide insights into broader market movements.
- In January 2023, I predicted copper would see explosive growth in 2023-2024. This was confirmed in November 2023 when the corrective wave 2 completed in a truncated wedge pattern, providing a strong foundation for significant gains.
Comex Copper in Nov 2023 ( Explosive Wave to Unfold Next?)
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2. Rising Demand:
- Copper cathode demand reached 598,000 tonnes (81.2% of the previous year's total) by November 2023.
- Imports of copper cathode, scrap, and wire rods soared by 174%, 56%, and 13% year-on-year, respectively.
- This robust demand hints at double-digit growth in FY24. The Indian government's focus on infrastructure, clean energy, and consumer spending is expected to sustain this growth.
3. Production Challenges and Future Solutions:
- India's smelting capacity was halved due to facility closures, turning the nation from a net exporter to a significant importer.
- The upcoming Adani smelter (5 lakh tonnes capacity) and potential reopening of the Sterlite smelter in 2024 could help India reclaim its status as a net copper exporter.
Nifty / BankNifty Outlook
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1. Explosive Moves Expected:
- The Nifty index started forming a well know rising pattern around the 18,800-19,000 zone in October to November 2023, suggesting a significant move ahead. This famous pattern was rising wedge.
- This pattern was debated on WaveTalks as either an ending or leading diagonal, offering different implications for future market moves.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis Insights:
- Applying Elliott Wave Analysis gave clarity to potential market paths, allowing for strategic decisions at tops and bottoms.
- As patterns unfolded as expected for Copper, the market outlook became increasingly clear for equities as Copper is a barometer of economic growth.
3. Conclusion:
- The Indian equity markets, particularly Nifty and BankNifty, appear set for more explosive moves.
- Time will reveal how far the markets can go, but the whispers of the market suggest significant growth ahead.
Signing off from WaveTalks: Market Whispers! Can you hear them?
From WaveTalks
Abhishek
Nifty50: We are at The Cusp of a mega PRE-ELECTION Rally !!NSE:NIFTY as per EW on hourly charts is suggesting that terminal 5th pattern is ongoing.
Short term correction is going on downside in form of wave 4 of Terminal pattern and then wave 5 can start which can be the final rally, you can also call it as a pre election rally before a major top is in place for 2024.
A meaningful top can be form after summer solstice which is due in June 2024.
The summer solstice marks an important change of season, when scientists describe the sun to stand still at a point in the horizon where it appears to rise and set, before moving off in the reverse direction.
This cosmic two-step stealth pattern, of a momentary rise, followed by a sharp reversal, is in-line with our bearish projected roadmap for the equity market, here and now.
We had also shared the diametric pattern outlook in our earlier forecast seems it will play out in late June.
So rally possible till election outcome followed by a meaningful top in late June.
BSE: Buy Asia's Oldest Exchange for Multibagger return !!!NSE:BSE is one of the oldest stock exchanges in the world is surely a value pick at current levels.
Elliott wave is a simple yet powerful technique to form a good trading setup!
It is important to understand this concept properly before trading or investing. If applied prudently with proper understanding it is very much possible to take investment or trading decisions right from the smallest time frame for Intraday trading to long-term charts for investment decisions.
BSE is trading at the fresh record high. Stock is moving up by following classic Elliott wave theory. Currently Primary wave 5 is ongoing on the upside. As per guidelines wave 5 target is equal to wave 1.
So, Investors can continue to Accumulate at current levels and on dips for a move towards 10/20k marks by 2026/2027
Also the intrinsic value of investments along with its future plans makes it an exciting stock.
Considering the investments it has, the core business is available at a cheap price
suggesting the current market cap is less than the investments/cash it has in the books.
Stay Ahead: Essential Tips to Avoid Trading PitfallsHello TradingView Community!
I'm excited to share some valuable insights on trading pitfalls and how to navigate them effectively. Trading in financial markets can be a challenging journey, but understanding common pitfalls and methods to avoid them can significantly enhance your success. Here are 10 pitfalls traders often encounter and actionable strategies to help you steer clear of them:
Having No Trading Plan:
Entering trades without a plan can lead to impulsive decisions. Develop a clear trading plan outlining your goals, strategies, entry and exit points, and risk management.
Using Strategies That Don't Match Your Personality:
Align your trading strategies with your personality, risk tolerance, and lifestyle. A good match helps you stay consistent and focused.
Having Unrealistic Expectations:
Set realistic goals based on your initial capital and risk tolerance. Trading is not a quick path to wealth, so be patient and persistent.
Taking Too Much Risk:
Avoid over-leveraging and using excessive position sizes. Implement risk management techniques like stop-loss orders and diversification.
Not Having Rules to Follow:
Create a set of trading rules to guide your decisions. These rules provide structure and help you stay disciplined.
Not Being Flexible to Market Conditions:
Adaptability is key in trading. Monitor the markets and adjust your strategies as conditions change.
Failing to Take Responsibility for Your Results:
Own your successes and mistakes. This mindset empowers you to learn, grow, and improve your trading.
Being Addicted to Volatility:
While volatility can be exciting, avoid chasing it for thrills. Focus on making well-reasoned decisions based on your plan.
Not Having a Process to Keep Track of Your Performance:
Maintain detailed records of your trades and their outcomes. Analyze this data to identify patterns and refine your strategies.
Not Dealing with Your Emotional Risk:
Emotions can cloud your judgment in trading. Practice emotional intelligence and techniques like meditation or journaling to stay composed.
Neglecting Proper Research and Due Diligence:
Relying solely on tips or rumors can lead to poor decisions. Conduct thorough research and due diligence on potential trades and investments.
Overcomplicating Your Trading Strategy:
Complex strategies may not always lead to better results. Simplify your approach to focus on proven methods and avoid overanalyzing the market.
Ignoring the Importance of Continuous Learning:
The markets evolve, and so should your knowledge and strategies. Stay updated on market trends and continuously educate yourself to stay ahead.
There is no trade without a stop-loss:
This point emphasizes the importance of having a stop-loss in place before entering any trade. It highlights risk management as a fundamental part of trading, ensuring that you have a clear exit strategy to limit potential losses.
If you have to re-analyze charts after being in a trade, you might be going in the wrong direction:
This point underscores the importance of trusting your initial analysis and trading plan. It warns against second-guessing or changing your plan mid-trade, which could indicate you may be heading in the wrong direction.
By implementing these strategies, you can enhance your trading experience and improve your performance over time. Remember, successful trading is a journey that requires discipline, patience, and continuous learning.
I hope you find these insights helpful. Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences in the comments. Let's continue to support each other and grow as a community!
Happy trading!
RK💕
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Auropharma Trap - Catching The E-wave 1135 to 1105 🎯 🎯🎯Disclaimer:
Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell.
WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them?
🏆🏆🏆
Applying Wave Analysis in Real Time & Making the Patterns Fit can lead to amazing trades, and we're here to celebrate as we've successfully reeled in the E-wave fish into our nets.
Hope you enjoyed the fall from 1135 to 1105 on April 10, 2024.
What's next?
If the stock holds above 1095, then it can surge upwards in Friday's session and reach the upside targets of 1135 / 1150-1160 zone, as updated via the 6:44 am comment on the last Auropharma idea.
Last Idea Published
From
WaveTalks
Abhishek