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Elliott Wave

Nifty - Elliot Wave - Alternate counts - Bullish ScenarioI called a top on May 2nd as the buying looked like a trap - which usually acts as a good end of a trend move. It worked out quite well, but we didn't get a selling momentum, that I expected. So, contemplating if we are still in 4th and there's another leg up pending, which should be: 1. Bearish scenario - C of X - Y down should take us to new lows 2. Bullish Scenario - 1 of 5 (weekly) - We should have a 2 and then head up in waves 3 and 5 to 27-30k. It's a tricky position to be in. Plan: Keep position light and let the 5th up complete. In both bullish and bearish scenarios, we'll get a good retracement from there - Min 23500 (in 2) and can go till 21500 - 20500 in Y. Ride the leg down and then take a call if it's bottoming out earlier or we are heading down? For the time being, I have booked all of my shorts and awaiting clarity. Cheers - All the best!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by pankajarora232
4
STAY AWAY FROM LIC HOUSING FINANCELIC Housing Finance is in down trend since July 2024. It has form a downward sloping triangle. we are in Big Wave E of a triangle and we are going to see one more triangle within a triangle, Once the small triangle which is forming in last leg of E is completed we will see uptrend, but the confirmation will come only after we close successfully above 600. Remember Stock movement is not linear, what that means is after the cross over above 600 we will see a pullback which will be the time to go long, till then need to keep patience. Disclaimer: This Idea is for educational purpose only and its not a buy or sell recommendation. you guys do your own analysis and decide.
NSE:LICHSGFIN
by Swiftstrike
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES IN LAST LEG OF CORRECTION ??Reliance Industries has seen a lot in last few months. Its time for Reliance industries to complete its last leg of correction and then resume its upward journey. 2 possibilities in last leg of correction. 1) It can be an impulsive move which will be in 1-2-3-4-5, which will be overall Wave C 2) It could be a triangle in which case the downfall and so the correction will be limited but boring. Check out my previous chart on Reliance Industries.
NSE:RELIANCE
by Swiftstrike
POWER GRID CORPORATION SHOWING POWERWe have completed the Corrective waves and Impulsive waves have begun. I can think of 2 possibilities as of today: 1) We are in 5th wave which should get truncated and soon the corrective phase which will be either simple or complex will start 2) If we are still in wave 3 continuation then we will reach 339++. In any case we are in uptrend and there is still long way to go. First Immediate target expected it to be 315 and if we are in 2nd possibility then we will reach 330++ soon. Disclaimer: I am not SEBI registered member. This Idea is only meant for Educational Purposes.
NSE:POWERGRID
by Swiftstrike
1
Nifty - Elliot Wave Analysis - Short Opportunity!We have had a good run-up from April lows. Today's buying seems like the last leg up which should end 5th up. Now there are two possibilities: 1. Bullish Scenario: Nifty has completed correction in April first week and we have done Wave 1 in an impulse of 5 waves up. In this case we should retrace 38-50% of the move from April lows. So, expect 500-1000 points in Wave 2. 2. Bearish Scenario: The entire move up from April lows was corrective and part of larger X. X is formed by ABC where C is 5 waves up - i.e. the move from April first week lows. If this is the case, then we head to new low in Y. 21500 or lower. In both cases this is the time to initiate shorts and ride at least 500 points the move down. All the best!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by pankajarora232
3
XAU/USD Elliott Wave Count: Preparing for Final ImpulseXAU/USD appears to be in a textbook 5-wave impulsive structure on the 4H chart, with the market now completing Wave 4 as a classic ABC corrective flat/pennant. The impulsive move from the Wave 2 low has formed clear internal substructures, with Wave 3 exhibiting extended price action, consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines. Currently, price is consolidating in a contracting pattern labeled Wave 4 (A-B-C), which looks to be near completion. Based on wave symmetry and Fibonacci projections, a strong upside move is anticipated once Wave 4 concludes, leading into the final Wave 5 rally. Entry Zone: 3286.875 Target: 3367.440– 3410.210 Stop Loss: Below 3260.190. 
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Money_Dictators
1
FAZE3Q LONGThe Elliott Wave analysis shows that the stock has completed waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v), as represented by blue numbers on the daily chart. Stock is in correction now. Wave correction will go in waves (a), (b), and (c) in blue color on the chart. Wave (a) is completed, and wave (b) is in progress. Wave (b) will go in three sub-waves (a, b, and c in red color). Wave a and b is completed and wave c is in progress.  wave c will unfold in five sub-waves (black circle) shown in the chart above. Wave 1, 2, 3, and 4 in a black circle is finished, and wave 5 will start. Wave levels are shown on the chart. Level of Invalidation Wave (a) has been identified as the invalidation level, which is 366.05. Because According to the wave rules, Wave (b) cannot cross the pricing territory of Wave (a). If the price falls below this level, it may signal that the projected Elliott Wave pattern is not what it appears. I am not a registered Sebi analyst. My research is strictly for scholarly interests. Before you trade or invest, please consult with your financial advisor. I am not responsible for your earnings or losses. Regards,  Dr Vineet
NSE:FAZE3QLong
by drvineet
JSFB LONGThe Elliott Wave Theory's description of the structure and pattern of price movements in financial markets is known as the Elliott Wave Structure. The Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the stock has completed waves (i) and (ii), which are shown as blue numbers on the daily chart. Journey of Wave (iii) will start. It is anticipated that wave (iii) will have about five subdivisions shown in red color. wave i (in red color) of wave (iii) will unfold in five sub waves shown in black circle. Wave levels of wave i in red color is shown on chart. Level of Invalidation The starting point of Wave (i) has been identified as the invalidation level at 365. Because as per wave rules Wave (ii) cannot cross the starting point of Wave (i). If the price falls below this level, it can indicate that the expected Elliott Wave pattern is not as it seems. I am not a registered Sebi analyst. My research is being done only for academic interests. Please speak with your financial advisor before trading or making any investments. I take no responsibility whatsoever for your gains or losses. Regards Dr Vineet
NSE:JSFBLong
by drvineet
CHOLAMANDALAM NEEDS BREAK After a good run up any stock needs break. Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company is no different. What you see on the chart is the completion of the Leading Diagonal, what's coming next is correction a-b-c. Now the question stands is how many days of break is needed before it could resume its upward Journey. If its closes below 1515, then the vacation is long. Watchout for the levels in chart. when its ready it will be difficult to stop Cholamandalam's upward journey. Please refer my earlier chart, hope you guys have benefited. Disclaimer: This is only for Educational Purpose. I am not an SEBI registered member.
NSE:CHOLAFIN
by Swiftstrike
TVS Motors - Elliot Wave Counts - Good RR Short!TVS completed 5 Wave rise from March 2022 till Sep 2024, which fromed a major Wave 3. I would have ideally wanted Wave 4 to correct at least 38.2%, which did not happen. Now that stock is almost at ATH, it offers a good opportunity to explore a short with previous high as SL. The entire zig zag move from Jan lows can just be an X and we get a Y down till at least 38.2% which is at 2025, a good 17% correction from today's price. All the best!
NSE:TVSMOTORShort
by pankajarora232
Bajaj Finance - Elliot Wave Counts - Major top done?Bajaj Finance has been in a sideways consolidation since Sep 2021, where it had completed a Major top from March 2009 lows (as per my counts). So, there are two Possibilities from here: P1. Major top -> sideways action -> Finall blow-out correction/ capitulation and then a start of next leg up. P2. Major top -> sideways consolidation for 4 years (till Jan 2025) -> Next leg up started P1: Reason could be re-rating of P/BV (which stands at 6.6), to industry avearge of around 4. Bajaj has been growing fast on account of unsercured lending. There could be bad assets building and the bubble can burst anytime, leading to the de-rating (P.S.: It has already de-rated from P/BV of 12.3 in Sep 2021 to 6.6 currently) Elliot Counts: The correction from Sep 21 to June 22 was a W. the entire upmove from June 22 till date has been an overlapping corrective move in an X. What is to follow is Y, which should ideally re-test W at 5300 (that's a 43% fall) P2: In this case we have completed the correction from Sep 21 till Jan 25 and started a new move up. The five wave completion is just the Wave 1, and what is to follow is Wave 2, which can correct 38% to 50% of Wave 1 (i.e. from Jan 25 lows till the highs). Expect min 8300 to come, which again is a more than 10% correction. Good thing is in both cases, we get a good enough correction to trade. All the best!
NSE:BAJFINANCEShort
by pankajarora232
Gold Elliot Wave Counts - Possibility 2 (Weekly 3rd done)There are two possibilities in Gold. Possibility 1 shared in another post (Targets of Possibility 1: 0.236: $2056, 0.382: $2781) As per Possibility 2 the spike move up was 5th of 3 and hence we have just completed a 3rd Wave in weekly time frame - ending the move from Oct 2023 lows. In this case also, we can expect 0.382: 2850, 0.5: 2650. Gold went up on account of multiple reasons, key of which being de-dollarization and buying by non US countries. However, my sense is that the spike in price was on account of trades from institutions, which will get unwound when price starts correcting and fuel the correction on the way down. The move in last 2 weeks was a typical parabolic move, which should mark the capitulation. Probable Risk: The last move from April lows was just 1 of 5. Hence keeping SL of current high is important. Breaking 3150 (0.618 of the move from April) should give us more confident that 5 is done.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by pankajarora232
Gold Elliot Wave Counts - Possibility 1 (Weekly 5th done)There are two possibilities in Gold. Sharing my favored possibility here. Will share possibility 2 in another post. Gold went up on account of multiple reasons, key of which being de-dollarization and buying by Non US countries. However, my sense is that the spike in price was on account of trades from institutions, which will get unwound when price starts correcting and fuel the correction on the way down. The move in last 2 weeks was a typical parabolic move, which should mark the capitulation. Hence, look for correction of entire leg up from Oct 22 bottom. Targets: 0.236: $2056, 0.382: $2781 Probable Risk: The last move from April lows was just 1 of 5. Hence keeping SL of current high is important. Breaking 3150 (0.618 of the move from April) should give us more confident that 5 is done.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by pankajarora232
Nifty Financial Services - EW Analysis - Good RR ShortNifty Financial Services showed resilience in the entire fall and led the way up in recovery as it had a 5 of 3 up (from March 23 lows) pending, which got done in Nifty and most other indices in Dec 2023. Now it has completed that 4 and should lead on the way down. Expecting at least a 14% correction in index till 23150 (38.2% retracement). Next target will be 22020 (50% retracement). My bet is on 50% retracement, as Bajaj Twins and HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank have completed a corrective bounce and should test/ break recent lows. Bajaj Twins have much larger correction possibility. Will share in other posts.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by pankajarora232
EURJPY: Short Setup with Target Zones in FocusEURJPY outlines a clear W-X-Y corrective pattern. Wave (W) ended at 161.297 , followed by an upward corrective move in Wave (X), which topped at 162.665 with a classic ABC formation. Currently, the price is hovering around 162.084, likely forming Wave B of the final Y leg. A brief move higher could complete this B wave before the pair resumes its decline toward the 160.922–160.680 area, which marks the projected end of Wave C of (Y). The broader correction is framed by two descending blue trendlines, providing dynamic resistance and support, while a short-term red ascending trendline is currently holding the price action but may soon give way. If the price stalls or rejects around the 162.3–162.5 zone, it could signal the start of the next leg down, making it a potential setup for short positions. After the reversal from Wave Y, potential upside targets are 161.600, 162.500 , and 163.100 . We will update it soon!
by Money_Dictators
IDFC Elliot wave count (updated)IDFC First bank has a peculiar wave count. A wave was 61.2% of wave 1. Wave B was 161.6% of wave A. Wave C is 61.8% of wave B. I did not mark B as another sub wave 1 as it clearly looked three waves. Wave C low aligns with Wave 1 low and wave A low. The target for Wave 3 using the channel extension is shown (as minimum) by this year. Looks like If time gets extended to complete wave 3 then wave 3 targets also gets extended. Is this setup possible? Not sure of the counts. I am using logarithmic scale.
NSE:IDFCFIRSTB
by technicalengineer1234
4