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EURUSD bulls jostle with 200-SMA hurdle on US HolidayEURUSD struggles to keep the buyers on board early Thursday, after rising for four consecutive days, as market momentum dwindles during the US holiday. That said, the Euro pair jumped to a three-week high while rising the most in a week after the US statistics drowned Greenback the previous day. However, the cautious mood ahead of Friday’s key US employment report might have challenged the bulls of late, especially amid dicey markets. That said, the RSI’s pullback from the overbought region and receding bullish bias of the MACD joins the 200-SMA to limit the quote’s further upside past 1.0790-85. Even if the quote crosses the 1.0790 hurdle, the 1.0800 threshold and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of March-April fall, close to 1.0840, will prod the additional advances. Above all, a four-month-old descending resistance line, close to 1.0895, quickly followed by the 1.0900 round figure, will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s retreat appears elusive beyond the week-start peak of around 1.0776. Following that, the 100-SMA support of 1.0730 will be crucial to watch for the Euro bears. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending support line from mid-April, close to 1.0680 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain on the bull’s radar during a less active day. However, the quote’s upside room appears limited and hence highlights Friday’s key data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD approaches multi-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD struggles to defend the first weekly gain in four as sellers appear more inclined to revisit an upward-sloping support line from early October 2023. That said, the Euro pair’s failure to keep Thursday’s rebound from the stated support line joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core PCE Price Index. However, a daily closing beneath the aforementioned key technical support surrounding 1.0665 becomes necessary for the bears to tighten their grip. Following that, the quote becomes vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. In a case where the downbeat RSI conditions and the stated 1.0600 support fail to stop the sellers, the prices could well aim for the year 2023 to bottom close to 1.0450. Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath a convergence of the 200 and 100 SMAs, close to 1.0790 by the press time. That said, the 1.0750 and the 1.0800 thresholds are extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s fresh rise in case of the downside US data. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.0800 will enable buyers to aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of late 2023 fall, around 1.0865, but a descending trend line from early January 2024, close to 1.0900, will challenge the upside afterward. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0900, an 11-month-long falling resistance line near 1.0990 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will be tough nuts to crack for the bulls. Overall, EURUSD bears keep the reins ahead of the key US data but the quote’s further downside hinges on the strong US inflation clues and a clear break of the 1.0665 support.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD fades bounce off key support line as full markets returnEURUSD lacks clear directions early Thursday after rising in the last three consecutive days. In doing so, the Euro pair fades Friday’s rebound from an upward-sloping support line stretched from October as sentiment dwindles amid the return of full markets after the previous day’s Juneteenth holiday in the US. Apart from the struggle to defend the recovery, bearish MACD signals and a downbeat RSI line also challenge the buyers. Apart from that, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0765 and a convergence of the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near the 1.0800 threshold, stand tall to restrict the quote’s upside moves. In a case where the major currency pair remains firmer past 1.0800, the odds of witnessing a quick run-up toward the monthly high of 1.0916 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, EURUSD sellers aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 run-up, close to 1.0710, as an immediate target ahead of revisiting the aforementioned multi-month-old support trend line surrounding 1.0670. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of around 1.0665 acts as an additional downside filter for the Euro before directing it to the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April. Additionally, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of 1.0595 acts as the final defense of the buyers ahead of allowing the bears to challenge the late 2023 bottom of near 1.0450. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 1.0800. However, downside room for the pair appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold. On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls need validation from 1.0920 and ECBEURUSD prints the first daily gains in three while approaching the top line of a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. Apart from the 1.0920 upside hurdle comprising the stated resistance line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected rate cut also poses a challenge to the major currency pair’s further upside. Additionally, the sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI line also raise bars for the buyers. Hence, the quote is likely to witness a pullback toward the weekly support line of around 1.0860 unless the ECB surprises the market, either with no rate cut or by providing hints of no more actions in the near term. In a case where the bears dominate past 1.0860, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support of near 1.0815 could gain the spotlight. It’s worth mentioning that the Euro sellers will gain conviction if the pair confirms the rising wedge pattern by falling beneath the 1.0765 support, which in turn opens the door for a theoretical fall toward 1.0450. Meanwhile, the ECB’s ability to convince the buyers, despite announcing the 0.25% cut to its benchmark rates, could help the EURUSD pair to cross the 1.0920 resistance. In that case, the quote’s run-up toward March’s peak surrounding 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly high of near 1.1040 and the late 2023 top around 1.1140 will challenge the Euro pair’s upside past 1.1000. To sum up, EURUSD braces for a post-ECB pullback while rising towards a short-term key resistance ahead of the event. However, the ECB’s hawkish halt might convince the buyers to return, which in turn requires traders to remain cautious before the outcome.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA as EU/US inflation clues loomEURUSD marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day while bouncing off the 200-SMA as the Eurozone data came in overall positive while the US statistics mostly disappointed. Also allowing the Euro pair to rebound from the key SMA level is the consolidation ahead of today’s first readings of the EU inflation data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. That said, the quote’s inability to defend the previous day’s rebound joins the bearish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to lure the bears. However, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 1.0787 becomes necessary for the seller’s return. It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line near 1.0790 and an upward-sloping trend line stretched from mid-April, close to 1.0750, act as additional downside filters. Should the pair sellers keep control past 1.0750, February’s low of 1.0694 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.0600 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive beneath a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0885 at the latest. That said, the 1.0900 threshold also stands tall to test the Euro bulls before directing them toward March’s peak of near 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Furthermore, the quote’s successful trading beyond the 1.1000 mark allows the bulls to challenge the late 2023 top surrounding 1.1140, as well as the previous yearly peak of 1.1275. To sum up, the EURUSD pair remains weak within a short-term trading range ahead of the key EU/US data.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces off 1.0810 support confluence ahead of key PMIsEURUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the lowest level in a week, snapping a three-day losing streak, as traders await the first readings of the Eurozone and the US PMIs for May early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair also takes a U-turn from a convergence of the 100-SMA and previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, close to 1.0810. The recovery also takes clues from the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals, allowing buyers to remain hopeful. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest rebound toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2023 to April 2024 downturn, near 1.0870. However, a 4.5-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0890 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0940 could test the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the highs marked in March and mid-January, respectively near 1.0980 and 1.1000, act as the final defense of the bears. Alternatively, the EURUSD bears need validation from the EU/US PMIs, the 1.0810 support confluence, and the 1.0800 threshold to keep the reins. Following that, the Euro pair’s gradual decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0730 and then to February’s bottom of around 1.0695 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the sellers dominate past 1.0695, the prices become vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to witness recovery but the upside move hinges on a successful break of 1.0890 and the scheduled data points.
by MTradingGlobal
100-SMA tests EURUSD bulls ahead of EU GDP, US CPIEURUSD rises to the highest level in five weeks, up for the third consecutive day, as traders await the second reading of the Eurozone Q1 GDP and the US headline inflation number, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the previous day’s successful clearance of the 200-SMA hurdle, backed by the upside RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, close to 1.0825 and 1.0835 respectively, challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the highs marked in April and March, around 1.0885 and 1.0985 in that order, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that a slew of hurdles near the 1.1000 threshold will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.0985, if not then bulls can aim for a late 2023 high of around 1.1140. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 upside, near 1.0795-90, restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a late April swing high of near 1.0750 and a one-month-old rising support line surrounding 1.0715 will stop the Euro bears from taking control. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained weakness past 1.0715 needs validation from the 1.0700 threshold before challenging the yearly low of 1.0600. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is in the uptrend and hence capable of crossing the immediate resistances. However, the surprise element of the US inflation data and little room toward the north require buyers to be cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls keep control ahead of ECB Minutes, US dataEURUSD pares the biggest daily gains of the week while posting mild losses early Friday. Even so, the Euro pair remains on the way to posting a four-week uptrend as traders prepare for the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, also known as the ECB Minutes, as well as the preliminary readings of the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. It should be noted that upbeat RSI and MACD conditions keep the buyers hopeful but a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, close to 1.0790 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the pair. Apart from the oscillators like RSI and MACD, the looming “Golden Cross”, a bullish moving average crossover, also keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside of the 5.5-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0825 as we write, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the gradual run-up toward March’s high of 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a pullback move remains uninteresting beyond the 50-SMA support of 1.0735. Following that, the lows marked in April and February, respectively around 1.0725 and 1.0695, could test the EURUSD bears before directing them to the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s sustained weakness past 1.0600 makes it vulnerable to challenge the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450-45 but the same needs validation from the strong US fundamentals, as well as downbeat EU catalysts. Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to retake control after staying off the grid for some time. However, the fundamentals need to back the pair’s bullish technical details to support the upside bias.
by MTradingGlobal
EURJPY- JPY BULLET TRAIN MAY TAKE A HALT & REVERSE ITS DIRECTIONSymbol - EURJPY EURJPY is currently trading at 168.200 I'm seeing a trading opportunity on sell side. Shorting EURJPY pair at CMP 168.200 I will be adding more if 168.600 comes & will hold with SL of 169.000 Targets I'm expecting are 165.400 & beyond. Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
Short
by akshit_official
4
EURUSD drops toward key support line near 1.0600 on Fed DayEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in a week, extending the late April’s retreat from 20-SMA and a six-month-old support-turned-resistance, as traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The Euro pair’s weakness also takes clues from an impending bear cross on the MACD and an absence of oversold RSI conditions. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest fall toward an ascending support line stretched from early October 2023, close to 1.0610 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 and multiple lows registered during late 2023 near 1.0520 and 1.0490 will test the bears before directing them toward the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Alternatively, the US Fed’s inability to inspire the EURUSD bulls, mainly amid the high hopes, could trigger a quick recovery in the pair prices toward the 20-SMA hurdle of 1.0710. However, the quote’s further upside needs validation from the previous support line stretched from early November 2023 surrounding 1.0740. It should be noted that a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50-SMA, near the 1.0800 threshold at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers, a clear break of which will enable them to confront the final defense of the sellers, namely a downward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, near 1.0865 as we write. To sum up, the EURUSD is on the way to testing the key support line as market players await the FOMC verdict. However, high hopes from the US central bank and a limited downside room for the pair suggest hardships for the sellers past 1.0600.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD seesaws within bear flag ahead of EU/US PMI for AprilEURUSD struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from a yearly low as traders await preliminary readings of the Eurozone and the US PMI data for April. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, sluggish prints of the RSI (14) and the MACD signals also suggest a lack of momentum. Even so, the sellers appear hopeful as the major currency pair stays within a fortnight-old bear flag chart formation. Additionally favoring the Euro bears is the quote’s sustained trading beneath the 10-week-old horizontal region, previous support surrounding 1.0700-690, as well as a downward-sloping support-turned-resistance line stretched from late February, close to 1.0680 at the latest. Even if the major currency pair manages to defy the bearish chart formation by crossing the 1.0705 upside hurdle, the 200-SMA level of 1.0810 and a falling resistance line from early March, near 1.0840 as we write, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, EURUSD sellers should wait for a clear downside break of the 1.0620 for fresh entry as it will confirm the bear flag chart formation. Following that, the monthly low of 1.0600 and the previous yearly low surrounding 1.0445 will act as buffers during the quote’s theoretical south-run suggesting 1.0315 as a target. It’s worth noting that early 2023 swing lows near 1.0515 and 1.0480 become extra downside filters for the bears to watch during the Euro’s theoretical fall between 1.0620 and 1.0315. Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish unless crossing 1.0705. However, the sellers need strong US PMI, as well as too weak activity data from the bloc, to confirm the bear flag formation suggesting a major decline in prices.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays pressured toward 1.0600 amid risk-aversionEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a four-month-old support-turned-resistance as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar demand early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the bearish MACD signals while paying little attention to the RSI (14) line suggesting a weak support for the current momentum. With this, the quote appears well set to revisit the latest trough surrounding the 1.0600. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December upside, near 1.0595, will join the downbeat RSI conditions to challenge the bears afterward. Should the sellers keep the reins past 1.0595, 1.0520 and 1.0495 may act as intermediate halts before directing the prices toward the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450. Meanwhile, the aforementioned previous support line from December 2023, close to 1.0675, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 1.0690. In a case where the Euro pair rises past 1.0690, and also crosses the 1.0700 threshold, the early-month bottom around 1.0725 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0800 will challenge the upside moves. Above all, the bull’s dominance needs validation from a convergence of the four-month-old resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.0880. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak but the room toward the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pares the biggest daily loss in 13 months on ECB DayWednesday’s strong US inflation data and hawkish Fed Minutes portrayed the EURUSD pair’s biggest daily slump since March 2023. Even so, the Euro pair failed to conquer a five-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0730 by the press time. The inability to break important support joins the market’s consolidation ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision to trigger the quote’s corrective bounce. However, the below 50.00 status of the RSI (14) line joins the bearish MACD signals to challenge the bullish bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned 1.0730 support for the sellers to watch. Following that, the yearly low of 1.0695 and the mid-November 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0655 will act as the final defenses of the bulls. On the contrary, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December 2023 upside, close to 1.0795, quickly followed by the 1.0800 threshold, cap the immediate upside of the EURUSD. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0800, 200-SMA and 100-SMA will challenge the Euro buyers around 1.0830 and 1.0870 respectively. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0870 remains inconclusive for the bulls unless crossing a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from December 2023, near 1.0900 threshold at the latest. To sum up, the EURUSD pair consolidates heavy losses ahead of the key ECB event, as well as the US PPI data. However, the bullish bias appears less convincing below 1.0900, especially when the ECB is likely to announce a dovish halt.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD keeps rebound from 1.0725-20 support as EU/US data looomEURUSD recovered from a two-month-old horizontal support the previous day while teasing buyers with the biggest intraday gains in a week ahead of today’s top-tier data from the Eurozone and the US. The corrective bounce from the said support crossed a one-week-long descending resistance and gained support from the firmer RSI (14) line to lure the Euro bulls. However, a convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s fall from December 2023 to February 2024 and the 50-SMA, around 1.0800 by the press time, will challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the previous week’s peak of around 1.0865 and the downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, near 1.0910, could restrict the quote’s further upside. On the flip side, the resistance-turned-support line stretched from last Tuesday, close to 1.0760 at the latest, limits the EURUSD pair’s immediate downside ahead of the previously stated horizontal support zone near 1.0725-20. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) conditions and the yearly low of near 1.0700-695 might raise the bars for the Euro bears past 1.0720. In a case where the sellers keep the reins below 1.0695, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the May 2023 low of near 1.0625 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to witness further recovery in prices as traders await the Eurozone inflation and the US ISM Services PMI, as well as the US ADP Employment Change. However, the upside room for the prices appears limited unless the scheduled data disappoints the US Dollar bulls and favors the Euro’s latest advances.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears attack six-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in five weeks, down for the fourth consecutive day, as market players await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February. In doing so, the Euro pair pokes the key support line stretched from early October 2023 while extending its fall from a convergence of the 200-day and the 50-day SMAs. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s failure to extend the week-start rebound beyond the key SMA joint keep the sellers hopeful. Also adding strength to the downside bias is a looming death-cross on the daily chart, a condition where the 50-SMA crosses the 200-SMA from above. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is sliding towards the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the quote. As a result, an area comprising the 1.0700 round figure and the previous monthly low of near 1.0695 will test the bears. Following that, a downward-slopping support line from December, close to 1.0675 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, the 1.0800 round figure guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.0835-40 by the press time. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0840, the 1.0900 threshold and a three-month-long descending resistance line surrounding 1.0940 will be crucial to watch before welcoming the Euro buyers. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 1.0940, the monthly high of 1.0981 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will act as the additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to witness further downside ahead of the key US data. However, the Good Friday holiday will restrict the market’s reaction to the statistics.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD flirts with 1.0880-75 key support as Fed week beginsEURUSD remains pressured around 1.0890 early Monday, after posting the first weekly loss in four. In doing so, the Euro pair grinds near the 1.0880-75 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a five-week-old rising trend line amid the initial hours of the week comprising the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that an impending bull cross on the MACD and a below 30 level of RSI (14) suggest the pre-FOMC consolidation of the quote. However, the corrective bounce appears elusive unless buyers manage to cross a downward-sloping trend line from the monthly high, close to 1.0945 at the latest. Even so, the monthly top surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 threshold will act as the final defense of the sellers. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0880-75 key support will allow the EURUSD bears to attack the 200-SMA level of 1.0830. Following that, the 1.0790-85 and the 1.0730 levels could test the sellers before directing the prices toward the yearly low marked in February near 1.0695. In a case where the Euro remains bearish past 1.0695, the May 2023 low of 1.0635 and March 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0515 will provide intermediate halts during a likely south-run targeting the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Overall, the EURUSD pair stays on the bear’s radar even if the oscillators suggest consolidation ahead of the key FOMC.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebounds within a month-old bullish channelEURUSD picks up bids to 1.0930 as traders consolidate weekly loss amid a sluggish Asian session on early Wednesday. In doing so, the Euro pair recovers within a one-month-old bullish trend channel amid upbeat RSI and MACD conditions. It’s worth noting that Tuesday’s Doji candlestick adds strength to the quote’s corrective bounce. With this, the buyers are likely to retake control and can aim for the 1.1000 threshold as an immediate upside target. However, the aforementioned channel’s top line surrounding 1.1010 and the November 2023 peak of 1.1017 will test the pair’s further upside. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 1.1017, the previous yearly high marked in December around 1.1140 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, EURUSD sellers will have a hard time taking control as the stated channel’s bottom line joins the 21-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to highlight the 1.0870 as a tough nut to crack for them. Even if the Euro bears manage to smash the 1.0870 key support, an ascending support line from October 2023, near 1.0750, will test the bears. Furthermore, lows marked in December 2023 and last month, respectively near 1.0720 and 1.0690, also act as downside filters before giving control to the sellers. To sum up, EURUSD buyers are likely to keep the reins even if the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pullback appears imminent but bulls stay hopefulEURUSD bulls take a breather at a six-week high as a rising wedge challenges the quote’s further upside. Apart from the stated bearish chart formation’s top line, the overbought RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals also challenge the Euro pair’s further advances. As a result, a pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s December 2023 to February 2024 downturn, close to 1.0865, appears imminent. However, a convergence of the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), as well as the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line, around 1.0830, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers. In a case where the quote drops below 1.0830, it confirms a bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical target of 1.0610. During the likely fall, the lows marked in late 2023 and in the previous month, respectively near 1.0725 and 1.0700, could offer a breathing space to the bears. On the contrary, the EURUSD pair’s successful rejection of the rising wedge formation, by a clear upside break of the 1.0900 hurdle, could help it challenge the late January peak surrounding 1.0930. Following that, the 1.1000 psychological magnet and the yearly high of near 1.1040 and late 2023 top around 1.1140 will lure the Euro buyers. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to witness a pullback amid a lack of more incentive for the bulls. That said, the bearish trend, however, remains off the table until the quote stays beyond 1.0830.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD snaps three-day losing streak but remains vulnerableEURUSD stays defensive around 1.0820 as it rebounds from the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the October-December 2023 upside. In doing so, the Euro pair prints the first daily gain in four while approaching the 200-SMA resistance surrounding 1.0830. Not only the 200-SMA but the 50-SMA level of around 1.0870 also challenges the pair buyers. Following that, the lat January swing high of around 1.0930 and the 1.1000 threshold will be the final defenses of the bears before welcoming the bulls. On the contrary, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios around 1.0795 and 1.0710 respectively act as the strong downside support levels for the EURUSD. Also acting as the downside filter is the monthly low of around 1.0695, a break of which will divert the Euro sellers toward the October 2023 swing low of around 1.0450. That said, bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI conditions also challenge the quote’s further downside past the Golden Fibonacci Ratio, namely the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. Overall, the EURUSD bears appear taking the rest but are still in the game even if the quote’s downside past 61.8% Fibonacci ratio needs a strong reason to lure the sellers. As a result, today’s Eurozone inflation numbers and PMI data will be important to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA tests EURUSD’s biggest weekly gain in nineEURUSD seesaws between a one-week-old rising support line and the 200-SMA resistance after rising to a three-week high the previous day. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s indecision ahead of the second-tier German statistics. Even so, the major currency pair is on the way to posting the biggest weekly gain in 2024. That said, the sluggish MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line favor the pair’s latest run-up, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s run-up beyond the 200-SMA hurdle of around 1.0840. However, a horizontal area comprising the monthly high of near 1.0900 will be a tough nut to crack the pair buyers afterward. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0900, a quick run-up toward the 1.1000 threshold becomes imminent. On the flip side, a clear break of the aforementioned support line, close to 1.0800 at the latest, won’t be an open signal for the EURUSD bull’s entry as a resistance-turned-support line from early January, near 1.0755 as we write, will test the quote’s further declines. In a case where the Euro bears keep the reins past 1.0755, the monthly low of near 1.0700 and the mid-2023 bottom of 1.0635 will be in their radars. Overall, the EURUSD is likely to remain firmer but the upside past 1.0900 becomes necessary to reverse the quote’s previous fall.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound is elusive, ECB’s Lagarde, US Retail Sales eyedEURUSD struggles to defend the previous day’s corrective bounce from a three-month low early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair seesaws around the key 1.0730-20 support zone comprising levels marked since early November. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s gradual recovery from the oversold territory joins the bearish MACD signals and the early February’s downside break of the key technical levels to keep the sellers hopeful. That said, a fresh selling needs validation from the latest trough surrounding 1.0695 before directing the quote toward the November 10 swing low of around 1.0655. Following that, the early October 2023 swing high of around 1.0640 will be the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears. On the flip side, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from early October, around 1.0770 by the press time, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair. Even if the quote manages to cross the 1.0770 hurdle, it won’t be capable of luring the bulls as the 100-SMA hurdle of around 1.0800 will test the upside momentum. It’s worth noting, however, that any upside momentum must stay beyond the 1.0825-30 resistance confluence comprising the 200-SMA and a five-week-old falling trend line to convince the markets of a bullish trend. Overall, the EURUSD pair remains well beneath the key support-turned-resistances and hence any recovery below 1.0830 remains unconvincing.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD slides beneath key support as Fed’s Powell defends hawksEURUSD dropped to the lowest level in two months after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell firmly pushed back the March rate cut. The same allowed the Euro pair to keep the previous day’s downside break of a 1.0810 support confluence comprising the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a four-month-old rising trend line. Additionally keeping the sellers hopeful are the bearish MACD signals. However, the below 50.0 level of the RSI (14) line raises doubts about the downside momentum and hence the bears need validation from December’s low of around 1.0720 to tighten the grips. Following that, October’s high of 1.0695 and early November swing low surrounding 1.0655 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, the EURUSD rebound needs acceptance from the support-turned-resistance confluence of around 1.0810 and the US ISM Services PMI. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0875 at the latest, quickly followed by the 1.0900 threshold, will act as the final defense of the Euro sellers before giving control to the bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s successful trading above 1.0900 enables the buyers to aim for the 1.1000 psychological magnet and November’s peak near 1.1020. Overall, EURUSD teases bears on hawkish Fed concerns but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal