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USDCHF stays bearish as SNB week beginsUSDCHF eyes another visit to the yearly low, after a two-week downtrend, as it braces for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision, expected 1.75% versus 1.50% prior. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair fades Friday’s bounce off the lowest levels in five weeks by retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May 04-31 upside. Given the below 50.0 levels of the RSI (14) line, it is likely to witness a bumpy road towards the south, suggesting a bounce off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8890. In a case where the quote fails to recover from 0.8890, the yearly low of around 0.8820 marked in the last month will be in the spotlight. It’s worth noting that the pair’s weakness past 0.8820 highlights the yearly 2021 bottom surrounding 0.8757 as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, USDCHF recovery may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8980. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a one-week-old descending resistance line of around 0.9000 will be in focus. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 0.9000, the bulls can aim for 0.9030 ahead of confronting multiple hurdles around 0.9110. It’s worth noting that the previous monthly high of around 0.9150 is the last stand for the bears, a break of which could allow the buyers to aim for the yearly high of 0.9440 marked in February.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls want to believe in BoJ’s defense of easy money poliBe it the triangle breakout or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials’ dovish signals ahead of the monetary policy announcements, not to forget the Fed’s hawkish pause, the USDJPY pair has all that’s needed to ride north. However, the overbought RSI conditions suggest a gradual run-up with intermediate pullbacks. That said, the aforementioned two-week-old symmetrical triangle’s top line, close to 140.20, appears immediate support for the Yen pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure and the stated triangle’s bottom line surrounding 139.00 can challenge the pair sellers. It’s worth noting that the buyers are likely to remain unshaken beyond the 200-SMA support of 138.00, a break of which could give rise to short-term setbacks for the optimists. Meanwhile, the 141.00 round figure precedes the latest peak of around 141.50 to guard the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair during its fresh rebound. In a case where the BoJ manages to defend the policy doves, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its May 16 to June 01 moves, near 141.70, precedes the 142.00 threshold and the 78.6% FE level around 142.55 to challenge the Yen pair bulls. Above all, an upward-sloping support resistance line from early May, at 143.00 by the press time, seems a tough nut to crack for the buyers to crack.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD appears bullish on ECB DayEURUSD defends recovery from 200-EMA, as well as stays above the 50-EMA hurdle, as markets prepare for the ECB. In doing so, the Euro pair lures buyers amid hawkish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB). That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s upside from late November 2022 to May 2023, near 1.0900, appears immediate resistance for the bulls to watch before targeting the 1.1000 threshold. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI may restrict the major currency pair’s advances past 1.1000, highlighting February’s peak of around 1.1035, as well as the yearly top marked in May around 1.1100. On the flip side, a dovish hike from the ECB and a daily close below the 50-DMA support of 1.0810 becomes necessary to please intraday sellers of the EURUSD pair. Even so, the 200-EMA of around 1.0690 will challenge the bears. Should the pair drops below the key EMA support, the previous monthly low of around 1.0635 can act as the final defense of the Euro bulls. Following that, a southward trajectory toward the lows marked in March and January, respectively around 1.0515 and 1.0480, will be in the spotlight. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to approach the yearly high unless the ECB disappoints.
by MTradingGlobal
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold hovers above $1,940 critical support on Fed dayGold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD buyers and the Fed also can surprise markets, amid dovish hopes and softer US inflation. As a result, the probabilities favoring the metal’s fall to $1,914 and the $1,900 round figures are high, a break of which could recall the early March swing high of around $1,858 and the latest February lows of near $1,804 that act as the last defense of the buyers. On the flip side, another recovery by the Gold price remains elusive unless it breaks the lower-high pattern established since late May. To do so, the bullion needs a daily close beyond the $1,984 mark. Even so, the 50-DMA hurdle of around $1,990 and the $2,000 threshold could play their roles to challenge the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, multiple levels around $2,020 and $2,050 can challenge the metal’s upside momentum before crossing the latest peak of around $2,080. Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision looms.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USOIL.F ANALYSIS ( Crude Oil Prices )ANTICIPATION OF FED DECISION The Federal Reserve is meeting this week to decide on a potential interest rate hike. While analysts agree that the central bank will maintain its rates for the first time since March 2022, investors are focused on the tone of the announcement. If the Fed hints at further rate hikes later in the year, as many predict, oil prices could decline further🔻📉. GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONCERN The Eurozone has entered a technical recession, and there are concerns about the U.S. economy facing a similar fate due to potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in response to high inflation. The economic data from China, the world's largest oil importer, also showed a decrease in exports for the first time this year, raising concerns about short-term global oil demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS As per the technical analysis of USOIL in a DAY-TF,WEEKLY-TF & MONTHLY-TF are showing downtrend ( STRONG SELL ). Apart from this, Moving Average ( MA5 (SELL 69.28), MA10(SELL 70.47), MA50 ( SELL 73.88), MA200 (SELL 78.20)) & Technical Indicator ((RSI(14)SELL), (STOCH(9,6)OVERSOLD), (MACD(12,26)SELL)) are showing strong sell.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FShort
by tradewith_ritik
GBPUSD bulls take a breather ahead of UK employment reportGBPUSD extends the week-start retreat from a one-month high, after posting a two-week upside, as it braces for the UK employment numbers on Tuesday. The In doing so, the Cable pair holds onto the previous day’s pullback from a six-week-long horizontal resistance as RSI retreats from nearly overbought territory. Even so, the MACD indicator flashes bullish signals hence a downside appears limited unless breaking an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 1.2420 by the press time. Following that, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near 1.2330, will give the last fight to the bulls before giving control to the sellers. Meanwhile, a clear upside break of the aforementioned resistance zone, around 1.2580-85 at the latest, could quickly propel the GBPUSD price towards the yearly high marked in May near 1.2680. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2680, the 1.2700 and the 1.2800 round figures will act as intermediate halts during the likely run-up towards a 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s March-May moves, close to 1.2850. It should be observed that the May 2022 peak near 1.2670 offers an additional upside filter. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to remain bullish unless breaking 1.2330, even if today’s UK employment data and the US inflation numbers disappoint and drags the quote downwards.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers flex muscles for further ruling, 0.6820 is crucialAUDUSD marked the biggest weekly gain since early November 2022, not to forget mentioning the second in a row, backed by RBA’s hawkish surprise. The Aussie pair, however, currently jostles with the key upside hurdle as the key week comprising the US inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision looms. That said, a four-month-old descending resistance line and the 200-EMA, challenge the bulls near 0.6750. Following that, the previous monthly high surrounding 0.6820 is the last stand for bears to leave before giving control to the bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6820, the 0.6850 and the late 2022 peak of around 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the AUDUSD pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023, close to 0.6660. In a case where sellers dominate past 0.6660, lows marked in April and March, respectively near 0.6570 and 0.6560, will be on their radars. It should be noted that the yearly low marked in May around 0.6455 appears the final fight for the bulls to win, if not then the pair’s southward trajectory towards a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6375 can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold prints bearish triangle as the dull week approaches its endDespite bracing for the second consecutive weekly gain, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam as the metal stays within a three-week-old bearish triangle, recently bouncing off the chart pattern’s bottom line. The latest recovery may initially gain momentum on breaking the weekly resistance line, around $1,965 by the press time, which in turn can challenge the 200-EMA surrounding $1,973. However, the XAUUSD buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, close to $1,982 by the press time. Meanwhile, Gold sellers can retake control on witnessing a clear downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, around $1,942 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low of near $1,932 may act as an extra check towards the south before dragging the quote towards the theoretical target of the triangle break, which is $1,888. However, multiple supports near $1,910 and the $1,900 threshold could challenge the bullion bears on their ruling. Overall, Gold portrays bearish consolidation by the end of the unimpressive week. Though the next one is all-important as it comprises monetary policy meetings of the Fed and ECB.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY retreat appears doubtful beyond 137.30USDJPY remains on the way to posting the second consecutive weekly loss after reversing from the yearly top in the last week. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line. However, a six-month-old horizontal support zone near 137.90-85 and the 200-DMA level surrounding 137.30 appear tough nuts to crack for the sellers to retake control. Following that, a gradual south-run toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May-October 2022 upside, near 136.10 and then to the previous monthly low of around 133.50 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, USDJPY recovery needs validation from the yearly latest peak of 140.95, as well as the 141.00 round figure, to convince buyers. It’s worth noting that the 140.00 psychological magnet caps the immediate upside of the Yen pair whereas a convergence of the one-month-old upward-sloping resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, near 142.15-20, can challenge the quote’s run-up beyond 141.00. In a case where the risk-barometer pair rises past 142.20, the late October 2022 low close to 145.10 will be in the spotlight. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness short-term selling pressure but the trend remains bullish until the quote stays beyond 137.30.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD portrays bearish consolidation on BoC DayUSDCAD remains unimpressive after breaking a seven-week-old horizontal support zone the previous day. That said, the RSI (14) rebounds from oversold territory and hence lures the buyers. However, a clear upside break of the support-turned-resistance area surrounding 1.3410, backed by the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hawkish tone, becomes necessary to convince buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA hurdle of near 1.3520 and a three-week-old resistance area surrounding 1.3565-70 can check the upside momentum before directing it to the previous monthly peak of around 1.3655 and then to April’s top near 1.3670. On the flip side, BoC is expected to keep the benchmark rates unchanged and hence a dovish tone or a signal to cut rates in futures would be enough to convince USDCAD bears. In that case, an upward-sloping support line from mid-April, close to 1.3350 by the press time, appears the key support for the pair sellers to watch during the quote’s further weakness. Should the Loonie pair sellers manage to keep the reins past 1.3350, the odds of witnessing a downward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in January around 1.3260 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to recover but the upside hinges on how well the BoC can defend hawks despite keeping the monetary policy unchanged.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls can keep control beyond 0.6560 on RBA DayAUDUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly rebound from the yearly low as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. Although the Aussie central bank is likely to keep the benchmark rates unchanged after a surprise 0.25% rate hike in the last, it can follow the RBNZ’s hawkish action amid recently firmer Australian data and keep the pair buyers happy. Alternatively, an unimpressive RBA verdict needs validation from 0.6565-60 support confluence comprising a three-month-old horizontal support zone and a previous resistance line from mid-May. Following that, a quick fall toward the 0.6500 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly bottom marked the last week, around 0.6455, might challenge the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 200-EMA hurdle of around 0.6650 restricts the short-term upside of the RBA even if the Australian central bank offers a positive surprise. Following that, the mid-May peak of around 0.6710 can lure the AUDUSD bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6710 will witness multiple hurdles around 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6820. In a case where the AUDUSD manages to remain firmer past 0.6820, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 0.7000 threshold and then to the yearly high of around 0.7160 are high. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain on the front foot despite the RBA’s status quo unless it breaks the 0.6560 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears have a bumpy road to travelEURUSD’s failure to cheer the US Dollar’s first weekly loss in four appears less positive for the pair bears as multiple supports stand ready to offer a bumpy road toward the south. That said, a fortnight-old previous resistance line, around 1.0690 by the press time, appears the immediate support for the sellers to conquer. Following that, the previous weekly low of around 1.0635 will return to the chart. It’s worth noting, however, that the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s May 16 to June 02 moves, respectively ear 1.0610 and 1.0565, appear tough nuts to crack for the Euro bears before approaching the lows marked in March and January, close to 1.0515 and 1.0480 in that order. Meanwhile, the EURUSD rebound needs validation from the 100-SMA hurdle, surrounding 1.0785 as we write. Should the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0785, it can easily climb to the mid-May swing high of near 1.0900. However, multiple lows marked during early May around 1.0935-40 can challenge the pair buyers before giving them the power to challenge the 1.1090-1100 horizontal resistance comprising tops marked in May and late April. Overall, EURUSD bears appear to run out of steam but are stubborn enough to not leave the driver’s seat.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers look set to recapture $2,000 on US NFP dayGold price extends rebound from an 11-week-old horizontal support zone, as well as the 100-DMA, as it approaches the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $1,992. Adding strength to the bullish bias is the metal’s upside break of a one-month-old descending resistance line, now support staying within the aforementioned horizontal region surrounding $1,932-40. Furthermore, the looming bull cross on the MACD and gradually rising RSI (14) line also keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful to extend the run-up towards the immediate DMA hurdle. It’s worth observing that the $2,000 round figure acts as an extra filter towards the north. However, a clear upside break of the same could quickly propel the metal toward the $2,050 resistance area before challenging the all-time high of nearly $2,080. On the contrary, the Gold price downside needs validation from the previously stated support zone near $1,940-32, including the 100-DMA, the previous resistance line stretched from early May and multiple levels marked since mid-March. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,896, could be the next stop for the metal sellers. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $1,896, the 5% Fibonacci retracement and the yearly low marked in February, respectively near $1,845 and $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 round figure, will be in the spotlight. Overall, Gold price is likely to recover but the road towards the north isn’t smooth and hinges on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eyes further downside before important EU, US dataEURUSD’s break of a six-month-old ascending support line, as well as poking of the 200-day EMA, set the tone for the major currency pair’s additional weakness as markets await the Eurozone inflation and US employment numbers. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals. However, the RSI (14) is nearly oversold and hence suggests bottom-picking, which in turn highlights the 1.0600 round figure as short-term key support. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s late November-April upside, near 1.0555 will precede the lows marked in March and January, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0480 as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, EURUSD recovery may initially battle with the 1.0700 round figure to convince intraday buyers. Following that, a convergence of the aforementioned support-turned-resistance line and the two-week-old falling trend line, near 1.0715, will precede the 100-day EMA hurdle of 1.0775 to restrict the short-term upside of the major currency pair. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.0775, multiple levels around 1.0845-50 may prod the bulls before giving them control. Overall, EURUSD lands on the bear’s radar as the key factors loom.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD remains vulnerable to testing sub-0.6400 zoneAUDUSD remains on the bear’s side after breaking the key support line in the last week. The nearly oversold RSI, however, allowed the quote to consolidate in the last few days while the bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Hence, the Aussie pair remains vulnerable to testing an eight-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6380 while any further downside may witness a pause before challenging the previous yearly low of around 0.6170. Meanwhile, any corrective bounce needs validation from the previous support line of around 0.6610. Following that, AUDUSD recovery towards the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6765 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the monthly high of near 0.6820 and the December 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure, will act as extra filters toward the north. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6900, a run-up towards the current yearly top of near 0.7160 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD remains on the way to refreshing the yearly low unless crossing the 0.6900 mark.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF teases bears on Swiss GDP day, rising wedge in focusUSDCHF fades upside momentum, after witnessing a three-week uptrend. With this, the Swiss currency pair portrays a rising wedge bearish chart formation on the four-hour chart. That said, RSI (14) line appears steady near the 50.0 level, suggesting no harm to the latest consolidation in prices. However, the bearish MACD signals suggest that the bears are gradually sneaking in. As a result, the pair bears may seek entry on breaking the stated rising wedge’s bottom line, close to the 0.9000 round figure. Following that, the 200-SMA of around 0.8950 and the yearly bottom of 0.8820 may act as extra filters towards the south before directing the pair to the theoretical target of the rising wedge around 0.8750. On the flip side, USDCHF recovery needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its late March to early May downturn, close to 0.9070. However, the April 10 peak of 0.9120 may limit the short-term upside of the quote afterward. Should the bulls cross the 0.9120 hurdle, the bearish chart formation gets off the table and can allow the buyers to challenge March’s high of near 0.9440, which is also the yearly high. Overall, USDCHF is likely to witness further downside but the bears need to conquer the 0.9000 mark to tighten the grips.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD needs to break 1.2260 to convince sellersGBPUSD marked a three-week downtrend while closing below the 50-DMA, as well as an eight-month-old ascending support line. While the bearish MACD signals join the aforementioned breakdowns and favor the sellers, the RSI (14) line is below 50.00, which in turn suggests a lack of conviction at the bull’s front. As a result, an upward-sloping support line from October 2022, close to 1.2260 by the press time, becomes crucial for the sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.2260, the Cable pair can fall to the 200-DMA support of around 1.1980. Following that, the current yearly low of near 1.1800 will offer the last battle to be won for the sellers before taking the throne. On the other hand, the 50-DMA and aforementioned previous support line, respectively around 1.2435 and 1.2500, can challenge the GBPUSD pair’s latest recovery. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.2500, April’s high surrounding 1.2525 and the monthly peak of 1.2680 could lure the buyers. It’s worth noting that if the Pound Sterling rises past 1.2680, it will become capable of poking the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to return to the bear’s radar, after a two-month absence, but it needs to break the key support line to convince sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need acceptance below $1,928 to dominate furtherGold braces for the third consecutive weekly loss as it challenges a six-month-old bullish trend channel formation. That said, bearish MACD signals join a three-week-old descending resistance line to keep XAUUSD sellers hopeful, the nearly oversold RSI conditions and the key support near $1,928 stop bears from taking control. As a result, the metal’s further downside appears elusive unless witnessing a daily close below $1,928. Following that, a quick fall to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to May 2023 upside, near the $1,900 round figure, can’t be ruled out. However, the early March swing high of near $1,860 and March’s monthly low of $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 threshold, might allow bears to take a breather afterward. Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery hinges on a clear upside break of the three-week-old bearish trend line, close to $1,962 at the latest. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past $1,962, the $2,000 psychological magnet could gain the bullion buyer’s attention. It’s worth noting that the Gold price upside past $2,000 needs validation from $2,050 and the latest all-time high surrounding $2,080 to aim for the fresh record high, which in turn highlights the previously mentioned rising channel’s top line near $2,120. Overall, Gold is likely to decline further but needs to sustain below $1,928 to convince bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays rising wedge bearish chart formationA gradual shrinking of EURUSD upside moves prints a six-month-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern, currently between 1.1120 and 1.0690. Recently luring the Euro bears is the downside break of the 100-DMA, around 1.0810 by the press time. With this, the pair is likely to challenge the stated wedge’s bottom line, around 1.0690, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical target of 0.9840. That said, the 200-SMA level of around 1.0465 can act as an intermediate halt during the likely fall. Alternatively, a daily close beyond the 100-DMA level of around 1.0810 becomes necessary for the EURUSD buyers to return to the table. Even so, the 1.0000 psychological magnet and February’s high of around 1.1035 could prod the Euro bulls. It’s worth noting that the stated wedge’s top line, currently near 1.1120, acts as the last defense of the EURUSD bears. Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further downside wherein 1.0690 is the key support.
by MTradingGlobal
Technical Analysis: NZDUSD slumps on RBNZ, 200-DMA and 0.6130 reNZDUSD fails to justify the RBNZ’s 0.25% rate hike as it drops the most in a week after the Interest Rate Decision. The reason could be linked to the New Zealand central bank’s keeping of top rate level and the Governor’s inability to defend the hawkish move. With this, the Kiwi pair drops towards the 200-DMA support of around 0.6150. However, an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.6130 by the press time, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6130,s the yearly low marked in March around 0.6105 and the 0.6100 may act as the last force to stop the sellers. On the contrary, a two-week-old descending resistance line near 0.6305 restricts the immediate upside of the NZDUSD pair during any recovery. Following that, the monthly high of around 0.6385 and the 0.6400 round figure may prod the Kiwi pair buyers before directing them to the yearly high of around 0.6540, printed in February. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to decline further but the room towards the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers need to break 0.6600 support to retake controlAfter repeated failures to cross the 100-DMA, the AUDUSD pair again attacks an 11-week-long ascending support line, around 0.6610 at the latest. That said, bearish MACD signals and a mostly steady RSI (14) line keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful of breaking the stated key support. Even so, a confirmation from the 0.6600 round figure, becomes necessary for the bears to battle with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, close to 0.6545. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a gradual fall towards 0.6380 and then to the yearly low of around 0.6170 can’t be ignored. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains unimpressive below the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6785. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That said, the 0.6710 can guard the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s successful break of 0.6785 resistance confluence can propel the pair towards 0.6850 and a late 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to turn bearish after closely missing the negative weekly mark in the last.
by MTradingGlobal