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USDJPY bulls seem tiring, bears need rising wedge confirmationUSDJPY’s U-turn from an eight-month high has significance for the sellers as it reverses from a convergence of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern’s top-line and a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area. Not only that, but the overbought RSI also suggests the end of a bullish reign. The same signals the Yen pair’s pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn, near 142.50. However, the bears need more than that to retake control, which in turn highlights a joint of the 21-EMA and bottom line of the stated wedge, close to 141.90 by the press time. Following that, the 140.00 round figure and March’s peak of 137.90 could become the seller’s favorite. Though, there will be a bumpy road for the Yen pair bears past 137.90 as lows marked in March and in January, respectively near 129.65 and 127.20, will be tough nuts to crack before directing the quote to the rising wedge confirmation’s theoretical target of 130.40 and then to the 130.00 round figure. On the contrary, the USDJPY pair’s run-up beyond the aforementioned immediate resistance confluence, near 145.00-10, could aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 146.70 and then to the late October 2022 peak of around 148.85. Additionally acting as an important upside filter is the 150.00 round figure. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions can keep challenging the Yen pair buyers on their way to the north while targeting the previous yearly top of around 152.00. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness fresh downside but a clear break of the 141.90 support is a must for sellers to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears have a long road ahead before taking controlEURUSD holds onto the previous week’s U-turn from a five-month-old horizontal resistance while bracing for the second weekly loss, targeting the 50-EMA support of around 1.0850 of late amid a looming bear cross on the MACD. That said, the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought RSI also suggests the Euro pair’s further weakness and hence the pair’s fall past the 50-EMA to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of January-April upside, near 1.0785, can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.0715-10, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Even if the quote manages to break the 1.0710 support confluence, an upward-sloping support line from January, surrounding 1.0670, will act as the final defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears. It should be noted, however, that the EURUSD pair’s recovery from the 50-EMA support will be difficult unless crossing the multi-month-old horizontal resistance area around 1.0990. Also acting as the short-term upside hurdle is the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Following that, the yearly high marked in April near 1.1095 holds the key to the major currency pair’s rally toward the March 2022 peak of 1.1185. Overall, the EURUSD is likely to witness further downside but the road towards the south won’t be smooth.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers are ready to break $1,900 but road to the south is Gold stays on the way to post the third consecutive weekly loss even as the one-month-old falling trend line prod XAUUSD sellers around $1,900 of late. Also challenging the quote’s further downside is the nearly oversold RSI (14) line. However, the bullion’s sustained trading beneath the fortnight-long falling trend line and the 200-SMA, respectively near $1,918 and $1,956, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful of witnessing further downside. In a case where the quote crosses these hurdles, the monthly top will join the late May’s swing high, around $1,983-85, to act as the last defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the Gold seller’s dominance past the $1,900 round figure will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its June 09-23 moves, near $1,898. Following that, the 78.6% and 100% FE, close to $1,887 and $1,873, should be quick to lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth observing that the precious metal’s weakness past $1,873 will have the early March high of $1,856 as an intermediate halt before dragging prices toward the yearly low marked in February around $,804. Overall, Gold price is likely to remain bearish but the south run is less likely to be smooth.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls have tough time regaining control on Australia inflAUDUSD remains on the back foot at the three-week low after posting the biggest weekly loss since August 2022 on Australia inflation day, breaking convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late May to early June run-up on downbeat Aussise Monthly CPI. Having breached the stated key support, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements, respectively near 0.6625 and 0.6550, act as the final defense of the bulls before directing the downside towards the year-to-date (YTD) low marked in May around 0.6460. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance confluence around 0.6670, comprising the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of an eight-day-long falling resistance line surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the 100-SMA level of around 0.6750 will restrict the AUDUSD pair’s further upside. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6750, a broad resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 10, near 0.6805-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD has more downside room as Canada inflation loomsUSDCAD remains depressed at the year-to-date levels ahead of Canada inflation and US Durable Goods Orders. It’s worth noting that the Loonie pair bears have little fundamental, as well as technical support unless witnessing a corrective bounce. That said, the oversold RSI appears the first catalyst suggesting a rebound in the pair price. With this, a one-month-old falling trend line, around 1.3165 by the press time, precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3210, to restrict the short-term upside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3210, the previous support line stretched from November 2022, close to 1.3350, and the piercing of the 50-EMA to the 200-EMA from above near 1.3400, will act as the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, strong Canada inflation and the downbeat US data may allow the USDCAD bears to keep the reins despite an oversold RSI. The same highlights the 1.3000 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2990 as the next targets for the Loonie pair bears. Should the pair sellers keep dominating past 1.2990, the September 2022 bottom of near 1.2950 will challenge the sellers before directing the pair towards the late 2022 trough close to 1.2725. Overall, the USDCAD bears are likely to stay in the driver’s seat even if a short-term bounce is very much likely.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD is still not for the bearsDespite posting the first weekly loss in four, the GBPUSD pair stays beyond the key supports. Not only that but the RSI (14) also retreats from overbought conditions and hence the fears of a pullback are off the table. That said, the MACD signals are bullish, which in turn backs the buyers to renew the upside momentum. That said, the latest peak, also the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of March-May moves, near 1.2850, appears the immediate target for Cable buyers. Following that, the lows marked during March 2022 join the 78.6% FE to highlight the 1.3000 as a strong resistance to watch. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.3000, the late 2021 bottom of around 1.3160 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the previous monthly high of near 1.2680 acts as immediate support for the intraday sellers of the GBPUSD pair to watch. Following that, an ascending support line from early March, close to 1.2510, immediately followed by the 1.2500 round figure, will be important hurdles for the bears to conquer to retain control. It’s worth observing that the 100-DMA level of around 1.2350 and the previous monthly low surrounding 1.2300 act as the last battle points for the Cable buyers before relinquishing control.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold Price gradually declines towards $1,900Gold Price breaks a month-old bearish channel towards the south and suggests further downside past the latest three-month low surrounding $1,920. However, the oversold RSI conditions keep offering intermediate bounces as the bullion drops towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 15 to June 16 moves, near $1,907. Following that, the $1,900 round figure may test the XAUUSD bears before highlighting the 78.6% FE level of around $1,890. In a case where the precious metal remains weak past $1,890, the June 2022 peak of near $1,880 and early March 2023 high close to $1,858 will act as the last stops for the bulls to leave the throne and give control to the bears. On the contrary, the bottom line of the stated bearish channel, close to $1,925 at the latest, can escalate the corrective bounce toward the $1,940 hurdle. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and a three-week-old descending trend line, near $1,960, appears a tough nut to crack for the Gold buyers afterward. Even if they manage to cross the $1,960 resistance, the top line of the aforementioned falling trend channel, close to $1,970, will be the final battle before welcoming the bulls. Overall, the Gold price is likely to decline further but the downside appears slow and steady.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays on bull’s list despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD dropped in the last three consecutive days and is on the way to posting the first weekly loss in four as the Cable traders prepare for the Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision, despite the latest rebound. Even so, the Pound Sterling remains beyond the 50-SMA and a three-week-old rising support line, respectively near 1.2690 and 1.2655 at the latest. Even if the quote breaks these immediate supports, the monthly swing high of near 1.2540 and the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2520 can act as the last defenses. It should be noted that the RSI is below 50.0 and suggest bottom-picking while the strong UK inflation also increases the hawkish hopes from the BoE. In that case, the weekly resistance line of near 1.2770 and the latest multi-month high marked the last week around 1.2850 will be in the spotlight. However, an upward-sloping trend line from mid-April, close to 1.2870 at the latest, will challenge the GBPUSD bulls afterward. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2870, multiple hurdles near 1.2970 and the 1.3000 threshold may test the upside momentum before directing the Pound Sterling prices toward the April 2022 peak of near 1.3150. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to grind higher unless the BoE disappoints markets.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls are still in the game despite retreatEURUSD pares the biggest weekly gain since early January ever since it reversed from the monthly high on Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair prints the first weekly loss in three as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony looms. However, a golden cross on the moving average, that is a condition where 50-SMA pierces the 200-SMA from below, joins the quote’s sustained trading beyond a fortnight-old rising support line to keep the buyers hopeful. Hence, the immediate trend line support, close to 1.0875 at the latest, precedes the 50-SMA of near 1.0840 and the 200-SMA surrounding 1.0820 to act as the final defense of the Euro buyers. Also acting as the downside filter is the early-month peak of around 1.0775, a break of which can quickly drag the pair to the previous monthly low of 1.0635. Meanwhile, the EURUSD recovery needs to remain successfully high past the two-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 1.0900-910. In that case, the weekly high of 1.0970 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet can challenge the bulls. Following that, the double tops marked in late April and early May, just below the 1.1100 round figure, will be crucial for the buyers to cross to confirm their ruling. Overall, the EURUSD appears slipping off the bull’s radar but the bears need validation from technicals, as well as from Fed’s Powell, to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
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AUDUSD teases sellers on breaking short-term bullish channelAUDUSD prods three-week uptrend after RBA Minutes and PBOC rate cut impresses bearish ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony. Also favoring the odds of a pullback in the Aussie pair is the nearly overbought RSI and concerns about hearing hawkish words from Fed Chair Powell. However, a clear downside break of a three-week-long rising trend channel becomes necessary to convince the pair bears. In doing so, a daily close below the stated channel’s bottom line, near 0.6850, becomes necessary to convince sellers. Even so, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of around 0.6760 acts as the last defense of the bulls. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD upside needs to refresh the latest monthly peak of around 0.0.6900 to convince short-term buyers. However, the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6940, will precede the 0.7000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair’s further upside. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.7000, the mid-February around of around 0.7030 and the yearly high of 0.7157 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD bulls appear running out of steam but the bears have a long way to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF stays bearish as SNB week beginsUSDCHF eyes another visit to the yearly low, after a two-week downtrend, as it braces for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision, expected 1.75% versus 1.50% prior. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair fades Friday’s bounce off the lowest levels in five weeks by retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May 04-31 upside. Given the below 50.0 levels of the RSI (14) line, it is likely to witness a bumpy road towards the south, suggesting a bounce off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8890. In a case where the quote fails to recover from 0.8890, the yearly low of around 0.8820 marked in the last month will be in the spotlight. It’s worth noting that the pair’s weakness past 0.8820 highlights the yearly 2021 bottom surrounding 0.8757 as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, USDCHF recovery may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8980. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a one-week-old descending resistance line of around 0.9000 will be in focus. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 0.9000, the bulls can aim for 0.9030 ahead of confronting multiple hurdles around 0.9110. It’s worth noting that the previous monthly high of around 0.9150 is the last stand for the bears, a break of which could allow the buyers to aim for the yearly high of 0.9440 marked in February.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls want to believe in BoJ’s defense of easy money poliBe it the triangle breakout or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials’ dovish signals ahead of the monetary policy announcements, not to forget the Fed’s hawkish pause, the USDJPY pair has all that’s needed to ride north. However, the overbought RSI conditions suggest a gradual run-up with intermediate pullbacks. That said, the aforementioned two-week-old symmetrical triangle’s top line, close to 140.20, appears immediate support for the Yen pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure and the stated triangle’s bottom line surrounding 139.00 can challenge the pair sellers. It’s worth noting that the buyers are likely to remain unshaken beyond the 200-SMA support of 138.00, a break of which could give rise to short-term setbacks for the optimists. Meanwhile, the 141.00 round figure precedes the latest peak of around 141.50 to guard the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair during its fresh rebound. In a case where the BoJ manages to defend the policy doves, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its May 16 to June 01 moves, near 141.70, precedes the 142.00 threshold and the 78.6% FE level around 142.55 to challenge the Yen pair bulls. Above all, an upward-sloping support resistance line from early May, at 143.00 by the press time, seems a tough nut to crack for the buyers to crack.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD appears bullish on ECB DayEURUSD defends recovery from 200-EMA, as well as stays above the 50-EMA hurdle, as markets prepare for the ECB. In doing so, the Euro pair lures buyers amid hawkish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB). That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s upside from late November 2022 to May 2023, near 1.0900, appears immediate resistance for the bulls to watch before targeting the 1.1000 threshold. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI may restrict the major currency pair’s advances past 1.1000, highlighting February’s peak of around 1.1035, as well as the yearly top marked in May around 1.1100. On the flip side, a dovish hike from the ECB and a daily close below the 50-DMA support of 1.0810 becomes necessary to please intraday sellers of the EURUSD pair. Even so, the 200-EMA of around 1.0690 will challenge the bears. Should the pair drops below the key EMA support, the previous monthly low of around 1.0635 can act as the final defense of the Euro bulls. Following that, a southward trajectory toward the lows marked in March and January, respectively around 1.0515 and 1.0480, will be in the spotlight. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to approach the yearly high unless the ECB disappoints.
by MTradingGlobal
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
Gold hovers above $1,940 critical support on Fed dayGold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD buyers and the Fed also can surprise markets, amid dovish hopes and softer US inflation. As a result, the probabilities favoring the metal’s fall to $1,914 and the $1,900 round figures are high, a break of which could recall the early March swing high of around $1,858 and the latest February lows of near $1,804 that act as the last defense of the buyers. On the flip side, another recovery by the Gold price remains elusive unless it breaks the lower-high pattern established since late May. To do so, the bullion needs a daily close beyond the $1,984 mark. Even so, the 50-DMA hurdle of around $1,990 and the $2,000 threshold could play their roles to challenge the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, multiple levels around $2,020 and $2,050 can challenge the metal’s upside momentum before crossing the latest peak of around $2,080. Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision looms.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USOIL.F ANALYSIS ( Crude Oil Prices )ANTICIPATION OF FED DECISION The Federal Reserve is meeting this week to decide on a potential interest rate hike. While analysts agree that the central bank will maintain its rates for the first time since March 2022, investors are focused on the tone of the announcement. If the Fed hints at further rate hikes later in the year, as many predict, oil prices could decline further🔻📉. GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONCERN The Eurozone has entered a technical recession, and there are concerns about the U.S. economy facing a similar fate due to potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in response to high inflation. The economic data from China, the world's largest oil importer, also showed a decrease in exports for the first time this year, raising concerns about short-term global oil demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS As per the technical analysis of USOIL in a DAY-TF,WEEKLY-TF & MONTHLY-TF are showing downtrend ( STRONG SELL ). Apart from this, Moving Average ( MA5 (SELL 69.28), MA10(SELL 70.47), MA50 ( SELL 73.88), MA200 (SELL 78.20)) & Technical Indicator ((RSI(14)SELL), (STOCH(9,6)OVERSOLD), (MACD(12,26)SELL)) are showing strong sell.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FShort
by tradewith_ritik
GBPUSD bulls take a breather ahead of UK employment reportGBPUSD extends the week-start retreat from a one-month high, after posting a two-week upside, as it braces for the UK employment numbers on Tuesday. The In doing so, the Cable pair holds onto the previous day’s pullback from a six-week-long horizontal resistance as RSI retreats from nearly overbought territory. Even so, the MACD indicator flashes bullish signals hence a downside appears limited unless breaking an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 1.2420 by the press time. Following that, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near 1.2330, will give the last fight to the bulls before giving control to the sellers. Meanwhile, a clear upside break of the aforementioned resistance zone, around 1.2580-85 at the latest, could quickly propel the GBPUSD price towards the yearly high marked in May near 1.2680. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2680, the 1.2700 and the 1.2800 round figures will act as intermediate halts during the likely run-up towards a 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s March-May moves, close to 1.2850. It should be observed that the May 2022 peak near 1.2670 offers an additional upside filter. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to remain bullish unless breaking 1.2330, even if today’s UK employment data and the US inflation numbers disappoint and drags the quote downwards.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers flex muscles for further ruling, 0.6820 is crucialAUDUSD marked the biggest weekly gain since early November 2022, not to forget mentioning the second in a row, backed by RBA’s hawkish surprise. The Aussie pair, however, currently jostles with the key upside hurdle as the key week comprising the US inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision looms. That said, a four-month-old descending resistance line and the 200-EMA, challenge the bulls near 0.6750. Following that, the previous monthly high surrounding 0.6820 is the last stand for bears to leave before giving control to the bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6820, the 0.6850 and the late 2022 peak of around 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the AUDUSD pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023, close to 0.6660. In a case where sellers dominate past 0.6660, lows marked in April and March, respectively near 0.6570 and 0.6560, will be on their radars. It should be noted that the yearly low marked in May around 0.6455 appears the final fight for the bulls to win, if not then the pair’s southward trajectory towards a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6375 can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold prints bearish triangle as the dull week approaches its endDespite bracing for the second consecutive weekly gain, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam as the metal stays within a three-week-old bearish triangle, recently bouncing off the chart pattern’s bottom line. The latest recovery may initially gain momentum on breaking the weekly resistance line, around $1,965 by the press time, which in turn can challenge the 200-EMA surrounding $1,973. However, the XAUUSD buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, close to $1,982 by the press time. Meanwhile, Gold sellers can retake control on witnessing a clear downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, around $1,942 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low of near $1,932 may act as an extra check towards the south before dragging the quote towards the theoretical target of the triangle break, which is $1,888. However, multiple supports near $1,910 and the $1,900 threshold could challenge the bullion bears on their ruling. Overall, Gold portrays bearish consolidation by the end of the unimpressive week. Though the next one is all-important as it comprises monetary policy meetings of the Fed and ECB.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY retreat appears doubtful beyond 137.30USDJPY remains on the way to posting the second consecutive weekly loss after reversing from the yearly top in the last week. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line. However, a six-month-old horizontal support zone near 137.90-85 and the 200-DMA level surrounding 137.30 appear tough nuts to crack for the sellers to retake control. Following that, a gradual south-run toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May-October 2022 upside, near 136.10 and then to the previous monthly low of around 133.50 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, USDJPY recovery needs validation from the yearly latest peak of 140.95, as well as the 141.00 round figure, to convince buyers. It’s worth noting that the 140.00 psychological magnet caps the immediate upside of the Yen pair whereas a convergence of the one-month-old upward-sloping resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, near 142.15-20, can challenge the quote’s run-up beyond 141.00. In a case where the risk-barometer pair rises past 142.20, the late October 2022 low close to 145.10 will be in the spotlight. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness short-term selling pressure but the trend remains bullish until the quote stays beyond 137.30.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD portrays bearish consolidation on BoC DayUSDCAD remains unimpressive after breaking a seven-week-old horizontal support zone the previous day. That said, the RSI (14) rebounds from oversold territory and hence lures the buyers. However, a clear upside break of the support-turned-resistance area surrounding 1.3410, backed by the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hawkish tone, becomes necessary to convince buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA hurdle of near 1.3520 and a three-week-old resistance area surrounding 1.3565-70 can check the upside momentum before directing it to the previous monthly peak of around 1.3655 and then to April’s top near 1.3670. On the flip side, BoC is expected to keep the benchmark rates unchanged and hence a dovish tone or a signal to cut rates in futures would be enough to convince USDCAD bears. In that case, an upward-sloping support line from mid-April, close to 1.3350 by the press time, appears the key support for the pair sellers to watch during the quote’s further weakness. Should the Loonie pair sellers manage to keep the reins past 1.3350, the odds of witnessing a downward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in January around 1.3260 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to recover but the upside hinges on how well the BoC can defend hawks despite keeping the monetary policy unchanged.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls can keep control beyond 0.6560 on RBA DayAUDUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly rebound from the yearly low as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. Although the Aussie central bank is likely to keep the benchmark rates unchanged after a surprise 0.25% rate hike in the last, it can follow the RBNZ’s hawkish action amid recently firmer Australian data and keep the pair buyers happy. Alternatively, an unimpressive RBA verdict needs validation from 0.6565-60 support confluence comprising a three-month-old horizontal support zone and a previous resistance line from mid-May. Following that, a quick fall toward the 0.6500 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly bottom marked the last week, around 0.6455, might challenge the pair sellers afterward. Meanwhile, the 200-EMA hurdle of around 0.6650 restricts the short-term upside of the RBA even if the Australian central bank offers a positive surprise. Following that, the mid-May peak of around 0.6710 can lure the AUDUSD bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6710 will witness multiple hurdles around 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6820. In a case where the AUDUSD manages to remain firmer past 0.6820, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 0.7000 threshold and then to the yearly high of around 0.7160 are high. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain on the front foot despite the RBA’s status quo unless it breaks the 0.6560 key support.
by MTradingGlobal