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Gold buyers look set to recapture $2,000 on US NFP dayGold price extends rebound from an 11-week-old horizontal support zone, as well as the 100-DMA, as it approaches the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $1,992. Adding strength to the bullish bias is the metal’s upside break of a one-month-old descending resistance line, now support staying within the aforementioned horizontal region surrounding $1,932-40. Furthermore, the looming bull cross on the MACD and gradually rising RSI (14) line also keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful to extend the run-up towards the immediate DMA hurdle. It’s worth observing that the $2,000 round figure acts as an extra filter towards the north. However, a clear upside break of the same could quickly propel the metal toward the $2,050 resistance area before challenging the all-time high of nearly $2,080. On the contrary, the Gold price downside needs validation from the previously stated support zone near $1,940-32, including the 100-DMA, the previous resistance line stretched from early May and multiple levels marked since mid-March. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,896, could be the next stop for the metal sellers. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $1,896, the 5% Fibonacci retracement and the yearly low marked in February, respectively near $1,845 and $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 round figure, will be in the spotlight. Overall, Gold price is likely to recover but the road towards the north isn’t smooth and hinges on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eyes further downside before important EU, US dataEURUSD’s break of a six-month-old ascending support line, as well as poking of the 200-day EMA, set the tone for the major currency pair’s additional weakness as markets await the Eurozone inflation and US employment numbers. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals. However, the RSI (14) is nearly oversold and hence suggests bottom-picking, which in turn highlights the 1.0600 round figure as short-term key support. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s late November-April upside, near 1.0555 will precede the lows marked in March and January, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0480 as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, EURUSD recovery may initially battle with the 1.0700 round figure to convince intraday buyers. Following that, a convergence of the aforementioned support-turned-resistance line and the two-week-old falling trend line, near 1.0715, will precede the 100-day EMA hurdle of 1.0775 to restrict the short-term upside of the major currency pair. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.0775, multiple levels around 1.0845-50 may prod the bulls before giving them control. Overall, EURUSD lands on the bear’s radar as the key factors loom.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD remains vulnerable to testing sub-0.6400 zoneAUDUSD remains on the bear’s side after breaking the key support line in the last week. The nearly oversold RSI, however, allowed the quote to consolidate in the last few days while the bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Hence, the Aussie pair remains vulnerable to testing an eight-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6380 while any further downside may witness a pause before challenging the previous yearly low of around 0.6170. Meanwhile, any corrective bounce needs validation from the previous support line of around 0.6610. Following that, AUDUSD recovery towards the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6765 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the monthly high of near 0.6820 and the December 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure, will act as extra filters toward the north. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6900, a run-up towards the current yearly top of near 0.7160 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD remains on the way to refreshing the yearly low unless crossing the 0.6900 mark.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF teases bears on Swiss GDP day, rising wedge in focusUSDCHF fades upside momentum, after witnessing a three-week uptrend. With this, the Swiss currency pair portrays a rising wedge bearish chart formation on the four-hour chart. That said, RSI (14) line appears steady near the 50.0 level, suggesting no harm to the latest consolidation in prices. However, the bearish MACD signals suggest that the bears are gradually sneaking in. As a result, the pair bears may seek entry on breaking the stated rising wedge’s bottom line, close to the 0.9000 round figure. Following that, the 200-SMA of around 0.8950 and the yearly bottom of 0.8820 may act as extra filters towards the south before directing the pair to the theoretical target of the rising wedge around 0.8750. On the flip side, USDCHF recovery needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its late March to early May downturn, close to 0.9070. However, the April 10 peak of 0.9120 may limit the short-term upside of the quote afterward. Should the bulls cross the 0.9120 hurdle, the bearish chart formation gets off the table and can allow the buyers to challenge March’s high of near 0.9440, which is also the yearly high. Overall, USDCHF is likely to witness further downside but the bears need to conquer the 0.9000 mark to tighten the grips.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD needs to break 1.2260 to convince sellersGBPUSD marked a three-week downtrend while closing below the 50-DMA, as well as an eight-month-old ascending support line. While the bearish MACD signals join the aforementioned breakdowns and favor the sellers, the RSI (14) line is below 50.00, which in turn suggests a lack of conviction at the bull’s front. As a result, an upward-sloping support line from October 2022, close to 1.2260 by the press time, becomes crucial for the sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.2260, the Cable pair can fall to the 200-DMA support of around 1.1980. Following that, the current yearly low of near 1.1800 will offer the last battle to be won for the sellers before taking the throne. On the other hand, the 50-DMA and aforementioned previous support line, respectively around 1.2435 and 1.2500, can challenge the GBPUSD pair’s latest recovery. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.2500, April’s high surrounding 1.2525 and the monthly peak of 1.2680 could lure the buyers. It’s worth noting that if the Pound Sterling rises past 1.2680, it will become capable of poking the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to return to the bear’s radar, after a two-month absence, but it needs to break the key support line to convince sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need acceptance below $1,928 to dominate furtherGold braces for the third consecutive weekly loss as it challenges a six-month-old bullish trend channel formation. That said, bearish MACD signals join a three-week-old descending resistance line to keep XAUUSD sellers hopeful, the nearly oversold RSI conditions and the key support near $1,928 stop bears from taking control. As a result, the metal’s further downside appears elusive unless witnessing a daily close below $1,928. Following that, a quick fall to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to May 2023 upside, near the $1,900 round figure, can’t be ruled out. However, the early March swing high of near $1,860 and March’s monthly low of $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 threshold, might allow bears to take a breather afterward. Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery hinges on a clear upside break of the three-week-old bearish trend line, close to $1,962 at the latest. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past $1,962, the $2,000 psychological magnet could gain the bullion buyer’s attention. It’s worth noting that the Gold price upside past $2,000 needs validation from $2,050 and the latest all-time high surrounding $2,080 to aim for the fresh record high, which in turn highlights the previously mentioned rising channel’s top line near $2,120. Overall, Gold is likely to decline further but needs to sustain below $1,928 to convince bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays rising wedge bearish chart formationA gradual shrinking of EURUSD upside moves prints a six-month-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern, currently between 1.1120 and 1.0690. Recently luring the Euro bears is the downside break of the 100-DMA, around 1.0810 by the press time. With this, the pair is likely to challenge the stated wedge’s bottom line, around 1.0690, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical target of 0.9840. That said, the 200-SMA level of around 1.0465 can act as an intermediate halt during the likely fall. Alternatively, a daily close beyond the 100-DMA level of around 1.0810 becomes necessary for the EURUSD buyers to return to the table. Even so, the 1.0000 psychological magnet and February’s high of around 1.1035 could prod the Euro bulls. It’s worth noting that the stated wedge’s top line, currently near 1.1120, acts as the last defense of the EURUSD bears. Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further downside wherein 1.0690 is the key support.
by MTradingGlobal
Technical Analysis: NZDUSD slumps on RBNZ, 200-DMA and 0.6130 reNZDUSD fails to justify the RBNZ’s 0.25% rate hike as it drops the most in a week after the Interest Rate Decision. The reason could be linked to the New Zealand central bank’s keeping of top rate level and the Governor’s inability to defend the hawkish move. With this, the Kiwi pair drops towards the 200-DMA support of around 0.6150. However, an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.6130 by the press time, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6130,s the yearly low marked in March around 0.6105 and the 0.6100 may act as the last force to stop the sellers. On the contrary, a two-week-old descending resistance line near 0.6305 restricts the immediate upside of the NZDUSD pair during any recovery. Following that, the monthly high of around 0.6385 and the 0.6400 round figure may prod the Kiwi pair buyers before directing them to the yearly high of around 0.6540, printed in February. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to decline further but the room towards the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD sellers need to break 0.6600 support to retake controlAfter repeated failures to cross the 100-DMA, the AUDUSD pair again attacks an 11-week-long ascending support line, around 0.6610 at the latest. That said, bearish MACD signals and a mostly steady RSI (14) line keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful of breaking the stated key support. Even so, a confirmation from the 0.6600 round figure, becomes necessary for the bears to battle with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, close to 0.6545. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a gradual fall towards 0.6380 and then to the yearly low of around 0.6170 can’t be ignored. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains unimpressive below the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6785. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That said, the 0.6710 can guard the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s successful break of 0.6785 resistance confluence can propel the pair towards 0.6850 and a late 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to turn bearish after closely missing the negative weekly mark in the last.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls struggle to retake control as RBNZ week beginsNZDUSD managed to ignore the US Dollar strength in the last week amid hawkish expectations from the RBNZ. The kiwi pair also bounced off a one-month-old ascending support line, as well as stayed beyond the 200-SMA, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, an expected last rate hike from the New Zealand central bank might pour cold water on the face of the Kiwi pair bulls. Even so, the stated key SMA and immediate support line, respectively near 0.6240 and 0.6210, can challenge the bears before giving them control. Following that, multiple lows marked around 0.6170-60 may rest the downside momentum ahead of highlighting a challenge for the April and May month bottoms, close to 0.6110 and 0.6085 in that order. Alternatively, a surprise hawkish move and the RBNZ’s restrain from pausing the rate hikes may fuel the NZDUSD price. In that case, a five-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6315 may prod the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6315, the monthly high of around 0.6385 may prod the bulls ahead of highlighting the rush towards the yearly high marked in February around 0.6540. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain firmer unless any dovish surprise from RBNZ erupts.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold remains vulnerable to further downside, $1,935 in focusA clear downside break of the nearly two-month-old ascending trend line and 200-EMA keeps the Gold price on the bear’s radar. However, the RSI (14) is drilling the grounds as it becomes oversold, suggesting little room towards the south. As a result, swings marked during March constitute a short-term key support of around $1,935. Should the XAUUSD drops below $1,935, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its March-May upside, near $1,905, quickly followed by the $1,900 round figure, can act as the last defense of the buyers before handing over the ball to the bears. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-EMA and the 200-EMA, around $1,994, precedes the $2,000 round figure to limit the short-term upside of the Gold price. Following that, a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,005 may become an extra check for the buyers. It’s worth noting that a five-week-old horizontal resistance around $2,050 acts as an important hurdle for the bulls to cross before eyeing a fresh all-time high, currently around $2,080. Overall, the Gold price is well set for further downside even if the room toward the south appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD lures bears by poking 0.6635 supportAUDUSD remains pressured inside a two-week-old descending triangle after posting heavy losses in the last week. Also favoring the downside bias is the Aussie pair’s sustained trading below the 200-EMA, as well as bearish MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) appears mostly oversold and hence the pair’s bottom-picking around the stated triangle’s support line, close to 0.6635 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. Should the pair sellers remain in the driver’s seat past 0.6635, a fall to the monthly low of 0.6605 becomes imminent. Following that, the previous monthly bottom and the yearly trough, respectively around 0.6572 and 0.6563, may challenge the pair’s further downside before giving control to the bears. Alternatively, AUDUSD recovery needs to defy the triangle formation by staying successfully beyond the resistance line, around 0.6650 at the latest. In that case, the 200-EMA hurdle of near 0.6700 may question the buyers before directing them to the monthly peak of near 0.6820. It should be observed that the Aussie pair’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6820 enables the bulls to aim for the 0.7000 psychological magnet, a break of which could allow buyers to target February’s highs surrounding 0.7030 and 0.7160. Overall, AUDUSD bears are holding the reins but need validation to dominate further.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bears again place their eyes on six-month-old supportUSDCAD again fails to remain beyond the 200-DMA, suggesting another attempt in breaking an upward-sloping support line from November 2022, close to 1.3320 at the latest. The lower highs in the last two months and downbeat oscillators seem to put the Loonie pair bears in a better position this time. Hence, a break of the key support line appears more likely, which in turn can quickly drag the quote to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-October upside, near 1.3190. However, a 13-month-old ascending trend line, close to 1.3130, may challenge the bears afterward before giving them control. Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s recovery moves may again try to float above the 200-DMA hurdle, around 1.3460 at the latest. In doing so, staying stable above the 1.3500 threshold may become their target before eyeing the falling resistance line from March, around 1.3585. In a case where the bulls manage to remain in the driver’s seat past 1.3585, the previous monthly high surrounding 1.3670 and the late 2022 peak near 1.3705 will be on their radar prior to hitting the yearly top of 1.3860. Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain pressured and is a strong candidate to challenge the key support lines.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears need to break 1.0730 to regain commandA clear downside break of 200-SMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line allowed EURUSD bears to cheer the biggest weekly loss since September 2022, not to forget the snapping of the two-week uptrend. Although the Euro bears are well-set to revisit the previous monthly low of around 1.0790, an oversold RSI may help the sellers to take a breather. As a result, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-March around 1.0740-30, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s March-April upside, becomes crucial support to watch. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0730, the odds of witnessing a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low, currently around 1.0480, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless the quote remains below a convergence of the 200-SMA and a one-week-long descending resistance line, close to 1.0960. Even so, the previous support line stretched from early April, near 1.1010 at the latest, may test the buyers before giving them control. Following that, the current yearly high marked in the last month around 1.1095 and the 1.1100 round figure will be in focus as a break of which could challenge the April 2022 peak of around 1.1185. Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further downside but the bears have multiple challenges and need back-up from the key EU data/events to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold fades upside momentum within rising wedgeGold price eyes the first weekly loss in three as it retreats inside a 15-week-old rising wedge. However, the 21-day EMA adds strength to the $2,008 support, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall toward $1,750. That said, the $2,000 psychological magnet will precede the multiple lows marked near $1,970 and February’s peak of around $1,960 to act as an intermediate halt ahead of the aforementioned theoretical target of the wedge. It should be noted that the year-to-date bottom of around $1,810 may offer an extra filter towards the south. On the contrary, Gold price recovery may initially aim for $2,050 ahead of challenging the stated wedge’s top line surrounding $2,075. In a case where the XAUUSD bulls defy the bearish chart formation by crossing the $2,075 hurdle, the recently flashed all-time high of around $2,080 and the $2,100 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the Gold buyers appear to run out of steam and the rising wedge teases the bears. However, the downside appears challenging and has multiple speed-breakers, including the mixed signals flashed by the RSI (14) line and MACD signals.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD struggles with key resistance on BoE “Super Thursday”After taking out the 1.2580 key resistance, GBPUSD bulls jostle with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March-September 2022 downturn, around 1.2685. That said, the RSI (14) grinds near the overbought territory and the MACD signals are sluggish too, which in turn suggests that the buyers are running out of steam on the Bank of England (BoE) inspired “Super Thursday”. Hence, the Cable buyers need a strong boost from the “Old Lady”, as the BoE is often termed informally, to cross the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance. Following that, a run-up towards the April 2022 low of near 1.2980 and the 1.3000 round figure could act as the final checks for the upside momentum targeting the late March 2022 peak of around 1.3300. On the contrary, a daily closing below the resistance-turned-support of around 1.2580, comprising an upward-sloping trend line from August 2022, could push back the intraday buyers. Even so, the 21-day EMA level of near 1.2510 may act as an additional downside filter before pushing the GBPUSD towards the previous monthly bottom surrounding 1.2275. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels, close to 1.2170 and 1.1820 in that order, are the final defenses of the Cable pair buyers. Overall, GBPUSD bulls occupy the driver’s seat on the key day but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD teases sellers on US inflation dayAfter multiple failures to cross the 1.1100 hurdle, EURUSD broke a five-week-old ascending support line as US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April looms. The major currency pair’s bearish signal also gains support from the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions. However, the 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels, respectively near 1.0850 and 1.0785, can check the Euro bears before giving them control. Even so, tops marked during late 2022 around 1.0710 may act as the last defense of the buyers before directing prices towards the YTD lows of around 1.0515. Meanwhile, a corrective bounce remains elusive unless rising back beyond the previous support line stretched from early April, close to 1.1000 by the press time. Even so, a three-month-old upward-sloping resistance line, close to 1.1100, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls to regain their power. Following that, a run-up towards the late March 2022 high of near 1.1185 will be in the spotlight. Overall, EURUSD bulls have finally stepped back after multiple attempts to conquer the 1.1100. However, their defeat isn’t confirmed yet as the US inflation data and the key support can surprise markets. Hence, there prevails a need to be cautious while trading this key event.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD buyers need successful break of 0.6810 to keep controlAUDUSD remains firmer inside an 11-week-old trading range, poking the 100-DMA hurdle of 0.6790 of late. Apart from the 100-DMA, the stated range’s top line, close to 0.6810, also challenges the Aussie pair buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions approach the overbought territory and hence the 0.6810 hurdle appears crucial for bulls to cross to keep the reins. Following that, a run-up towards 0.6870 and the mid-February swing high near 0.7030 can’t be ruled out. In a case where the quote rises past 0.7030, the yearly high marked in February near 0.7160 may be expected. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6665, ahead of challenging the stated trading range’s bottom of surrounding 0.6560. Also acting as a downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6550, known as the golden Fibonacci ratio. If at all the AUDUSD bears occupy the driver’s seat past 0.6550, the sellers may carve out a gradual fall towards the November 2022 bottom of near 0.6270 and then to the late 2022 low of around 0.6170. To sum up, AUDUSD buyers are likely to keep the reins but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY grinds higher inside five-month-old bearish triangleUSDJPY marked the first negative weekly close in four despite Friday’s gains. Following that, the Yen pair remains inside an ascending triangle bearish chart formation comprising multiple levels marked since early December 2022. That said, the RSI and MACD conditions also signal a continuation of the recent rebound within the stated triangle. With this, the top line of the aforementioned chart formation, close to 137.80 at the latest, gains the market’s attention, a break of which could defy the bearish pattern and can propel prices towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to January 2023 downside, at 142.50. It should be noted that the 140.00 round figure can act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated rise whereas a successful rise past 142.50 won’t hesitate to aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 146.70. Meanwhile, the 100-DMA joins the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level to provide strong short-term support within the triangle around 132.80. Following that, the triangle’s lower line, close to 131.90, will be crucial to watch as a clear break of the same could confirm the theoretical fall towards 121.00. While chasing the said target, the lows marked during January 2023 and May 2022, respectively near 127.20 and 126.30, may act as intermediate halts. However, the USDJPY pair’s weakness past 121.00 could witness multiple supports around the 120.00 psychological magnet. Overall, USDJPY is likely to decline further as Fed vs. BoJ divergence eases. Though, a clear downside break of 131.90 becomes necessary to convince bears.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price signals pullback on US NFP dayHaving refreshed a multi-month high on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish rate hike, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam as markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. That said, the quote’s repeated failure to provide a daily closing beyond an upward-sloping resistance line from late January 2023, close to $2,068 by the press time, teases the XAUUSD bears. Adding strength to the hopes of a pullback is the overbought RSI line. However, the metal price needs to provide a daily close below $2,040 to facilitate the profit-booking move. In that case, the $2,000 round figure and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around $1,970 could act as immediate targets ahead of February’s top surrounding $1,960. Though, the quote is less likely to drop past $1,960 as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200-EMA, respectively near $1,900 and $1,863 appear tough nuts to crack for bullion sellers. Meanwhile, the metal’s sustained trading beyond $2,040 can keep grinding its higher and mark another attempt in breaking the multi-day-old resistance line near $2,068. In that case, the highs marked in 2022 and 2020, around $2,070 and $2,075, may act as intermediate halts for the Gold buyers before directing them to the $2,100 round figures. Overall, Gold price remains bullish but a short-term pullback seems brewing as the key US data looms.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays bullish consolidation ahead of ECBEURUSD recently pierced a three-week-old symmetrical triangle as the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision looms. That said, the Fed-inspired run-up impresses the Euro bulls as the pair trades successfully beyond the 200-SMA amid a firmer RSI (14) line and bullish MACD signals. As a result, the quote is well set for rising to the fresh high since late March 2022, currently around 1.1095. The same highlights the 1.1100 round figure as a lucrative stop ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves from April 03 to May 02, near 1.1130. Following that, the 78.6% FE and March 2022 peak of around 1.1180 and 1.1185 respectively could lure the pair buyers. Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers will need validation from the 200-SMA support of around 1.0915 to retake control. Even so, lows marked during April 10 and 03, close to 1.0830 and 1.0790 in that order, can check the bears before giving them control. In that case, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Euro pair’s March-April upside, surrounding 1.0735, may act as the last defense of the buyers before directing them to the YTD low marked in March around 1.0515. Overall, EURUSD buyers remain in the driver’s seat as they await the key central bank decision.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 MAY 2023 - FOMCJust look at the 5mts chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY today - what do you see? I see the strength of the bulls. Even though the opening was gap-down and below the support line 43253, banknifty managed to scale back by 10.45. The first attempt was rejected - rightly so because NSE:NIFTY was looking weak and the market participants would have anticipated more selling pressure. Surprisingly banknifty did not have any selling momentum, by 14.30 the 43253 resistance was conclusively breached. Yeah, we did not close in green but just 39pts lower than yesterday's close. Having such a dichotomy with Nifty50 is not good for NSE:BANKNIFTY . We cannot have a situation where banknifty is crossing the all time highs whereas Nifty50 is 8 to 10% lower. One factor was the under performance by NiftyIT which is mirroring the US tech index. If we continue this outperformance by the banks vs IT - then the weightage of financial stocks will increase further diverging these 2 indices. --- On a generic note, I am quite surprised how the bank stocks in India are staying afloat when the US banks are under severe pressure. SP:SPF is down 22% from the ATH whereas Banknifty is nearing the ATH in India. --- Nifty50 did not have any negative price action today, it just stayed down after opening gap-down. We can interpret it as Nifty50 lacking buying strength. Today's FOMC meeting and FED interest rate decision is definitely going to move the markets globally. If FED raises rates - the banks in US will be under severe pressure. If FED maintains status quo - people will doubt its credibility in fighting inflation. However this was not visible on Nifty50 today, I seriously thought we will close in deep red today mirroring the SP:SPX from yesterday. --- 15mts TF, remember the rounded top formation we were talking about yesterday. Forget that, today's price action is not showing an interim top formation - the momentum is still too strong on the bull side. --- 1hr TF shows the price action much more clearly, instead of a top formation what got formed is a start of a new leg. A higher-low is visible and if we continue to take out 43500 in the next 2 sessions we will have its higher-high too. Technicals will work only if the fundamentals remain the same. It is quite unlikely that the fundamentals will remain the same for tomorrow as the FOMC meeting will have multi polar repercussions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
GBPUSD bears flex muscles with rising wedge at multi-day topGBPUSD pauses a two-week uptrend inside a rising wedge bearish chart formation. The descending RSI (14) line, however, suggests bottom-picking and hence highlights the need for a strong downside move that can break the wedge’s lower line, as well as the 200-SMA level, respectively near 1.2430 and 1.2385. Following that, the theoretical target of rising wedge confirmation, around 1.2130, gains the market’s attention. Though the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of March-April upside near 1.2190 can act as an intermediate halt whereas the mid-March swing low around the 1.2000 psychological magnet may lure the Cable bears past 1.2130. On the other hand, a surprise positive for the GBPUSD buyers requires successful trading beyond the latest multi-month high marked in the last week around 1.2585 to suggest the quote’s further advances. Even so, the stated wedge’s upper line near 1.2590 and the 1.2600 round figure can act as extra filters towards the north. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2600, the May 2022 peak of around 1.2670 and October 2020 bottom of near 1.2675 may provide the final fight to the bulls before giving them control. Overall, GBPUSD is technically expected to witness a pullback in prices but the looming Fed and the US data can play its magic to change the scenario. Hence, Cable traders should closely observe the outcomes before taking any major positions.
by MTradingGlobal