GOLD SHORT TERM BUYING NEXT WEEKGold will be in short term buying before going all the way down
Entry : 1825
Target : 1840-1850-1875
Stop loss : 1801
Elliot wave analysis
Fed
BIG SELL IN NZDUSD : ELLIOT WAVE TREND ANALYSISFollowing the Elliot wave analysis a big selling opportunity is there in NZDUSD .
Target 1 : 0.62713 - FIB LEVEL 0.786
Target 2 : 0.62303 - FIB LEVEL 1.618
Target 3 : 0.61811 - FIB LEVEL 2.618
STOP LOSS : 0.63200
EURUSD stays on the way to sub-1.0300 regionEURUSD again bounces off the monthly low as sellers flirt with a horizontal area surrounding multiple levels marked since April. That being said, RSI and MACD back the major currency pair’s mid-week retreat, which in turn hints at the break of the immediate support zone near 1.0490-80. The following downturn could aim for the yearly low close to 1.0350 before allowing a chance for the bears to breathe. In a case where the quote fails to rebound from 1.0350, the odds of witnessing an extended south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May move, around 1.0265, will be in focus.
On the contrary, a 21-DMA and 50-DMA confluence of 1.0610 appears to be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Even if the EURUSD rises past 1.0610, a downward sloping resistance line from March, close to 1.0620, could act as an extra filter to the north before giving control to the bulls. Following that, a run-up towards the monthly high of 1.0773 can’t be ruled out. However, May’s peak near 1.0785 could challenge the pair’s upside moves afterward.
Overall, EURUSD has more downside scope than the otherwise but the US dollar’s dormancy probes bears.
SILVER - XAGUSD SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM TRADE Potential sell coming in Silver .
TP 1 : 21.107
Trade 2 : 20.690
Big influencing factor : stronger Bond Yields and Powell's testimony .
Stop loss : 21 .620
Gold retreats towards $1,805 as bears await Fed’s PowellGold fades bounce off monthly horizontal support ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s key testimony. That said, gradually declining RSI (14) and bearish MACD signals add strength to the downside bias. Should the gold sellers manage to conquer the aforementioned support around $1,805, a downward trajectory towards the yearly low of $1,786 appears imminent. However, the metal’s weakness past $1,786 could make it vulnerable to testing the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-June moves, around $1,748.
Meanwhile, recovery moves need a successful break of the 100-day EMA level of $1,868 to convince gold bulls. Following that, the $1,900 threshold acts as a validation point before directing the run-up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May fall, near $1,917. It’s worth noting that gold’s upside past $1,917 enables the buyers to aim for April’s peak surrounding the $2,000 psychological magnet.
To sum up, gold is set for further downside but Fed Chair Powell need not spoil the mood by taming the hawkish hopes of the US central bank.
BIG SELL COMING IN SILVER - XAGUSDElliot Wave Analysis - Corrective Wave 4 Almost Completed .
Wave 4 target - 22.66 & 23.34
Wave 5 target - 19.557
GOLD LONG TERM ANALYSIS - SHORTElliot wave analysis : Long term analysis Sell .
Best selling point between 1880-1860
Long range target - 1780-1750-1720
EURUSD stays on the way to mid-1.3000sEURUSD holds onto its bearish bias, despite bouncing off an immediate support line. That said, a sustained trading below the 200-SMA and previous support line from late May keeps bears hopeful of breaking the nearby trend line support, around 1.0450. Following that, multiple levels surrounding 1.0400 could test the downside momentum before directing the quote towards the previous monthly low near 1.0350, also the lowest level since 2017. In a case where the pair refreshes its yearly bottom, the year 2017’s trough close to 1.0340 could act as the last defense of the bulls.
On the upside, further recovery may eye 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 13-30 upside, near 1.0570. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the descending trend line from May 25 around 1.0600 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD buyers. Even if the quote successfully crosses the 1.0600 hurdle, the June-start low around 1.0630 will be a crucial challenge for the bulls before retaking the control.
Overall, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar even after teasing a double-bottom bullish chart pattern.
GOLD BULLS FOR NEXT TARGET READY BUY TARGET : 1860-1877
Stop loss below : 1818
Risk - Minimum
Reward - High
USDJPY has limited downside room, BOJ, Fed’s Powell in focusA clear downside break of the fortnight-old support line, favored USDJPY bears in the last few days. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May 24 to June 14 upside, around 132.00, seemed to have triggered the latest rebound. Also acting as short-term key support is a horizontal area comprising tops marked during late April and early May, surrounding 131.25-35. As the RSI (14) bounces off oversold territory, the aforementioned supports could form the pair’s bottom as traders await Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting results and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Should the quote drop below 131.25, the 61.8% Fibo. level near 129.80 might return to the charts.
Meanwhile, a confluence of the 50-EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 133.40, guards the immediate upside. Following that, the support-turned-resistance from early June and the latest peak could challenge the USDJPY buyers around 135.60. If at all the quote rises past 135.60, the late 1998swing highs near 137.30 and 138.30 could probe the bulls before directing them to the 140.00 psychological magnet.
On the fundamental side, the BOJ isn’t expected to announce any major changes to its monetary policies, which in turn makes the event less important than Powell’s speech. Though, the current environment of central banks providing hawkish surprises might push the traditional dove, which in turn can entertain USDJPY traders.
Gold bears stay hopeful on rising wedge confirmation ahead of FeDespite bouncing off multiple troughs marked during mid-May, gold holds onto Monday’s rising wedge confirmation, suggesting further downside. However, nearly oversold RSI joins the horizontal support around $1,810 to test the intraday bears ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Should the quote drops below $1,810, a downturn towards the previous monthly low surrounding $1,786 appears imminent. Following that, the 61.8% FE level near $1,750 could lure the metal sellers.
On the flip side, recovery remains doubtful until the quote rises back beyond the wedge’s support line, now resistance around $1,848. Even so, an upward sloping trend line from late May near $1,880, forming part of the bearish chart pattern, could restrict the bull’s entry. In a case where the gold prices rally beyond $1,880, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the $1,900 threshold and then to the late April swing high surrounding $1,920 can’t be ruled out.
On a fundamental side, the Fed has already made it clear that it will announce a 50 bps rate hike but the markets have priced in a 75 bps move. If the US central bank adheres to aggressive action, the gold prices may witness further downside.
EURUSD has more downside room amid pre-Fed USD strengthEURUSD dribbles around a monthly low after breaking the six-week-old horizontal support. That said, the downward sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins bearish MACD signals to also hint at the major currency pair’s further downside. With this, the sellers brace for the yearly low surrounding 1.0350. However, the RSI line and nearness to the Fed may restrict the quote’s downside below the same, if not then the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, around 1.0270, will gain the market’s attention.
On the contrary, corrective pullback needs to sustain beyond the immediate support-turned-resistance, around 1.0460-70, to convince short-term EURUSD buyers. Following that, the 20-DMA level near 1.0650 will precede the monthly top of 1.0773 to challenge the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that May’s top near 1.0790 acts as a validation point for the quote’s run-up towards late April swing high near 1.0935.
Overall, broad US dollar strength ahead of the Fed’s widely anticipated rate hike keeps EURUSD pressured towards refreshing the yearly low marked in May.
GBPUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on Fed, BOEA clear downside break of the six-week-old horizontal support keeps GBPUSD bears hopeful of further south-run ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meetings. That said, 1.2255-50 appears immediate support for the cable ahead of the yearly low surrounding 1.2150. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained downturn past 1.2160 could make it vulnerable to further declines toward the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March to May moves, near 1.1950, might lure the bears.
Alternatively, recovery remains elusive until the quote remains below the recently broke support-turned-resistance, around 1.2400-2410. Even if the GBPUSD prices rise beyond 1.2410, a downward sloping trend line from February and the 50-DMA, respectively near 1.2570 and 1.2640, will be in focus. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s successful run-up beyond the 50-DMA needs validation from May’s high near 1.2665 to convince the buyers.
Overall, GBPUSD is ready to extend the latest downward trajectory but the oscillators may test the bears and so do the central bankers. Hence, traders’ discretion appears more required.
Gold wavers around the last defense for bears ahead of US NFPGold prices seesaw around the monthly top after crossing a five-week-old resistance line, as well as a weekly hurdle. The recently bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI also favor the buyers as they attack the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,872, the last defense for bears. Should the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) manage to propel the quote beyond $1,872, an upward trajectory towards the $1,900 threshold can’t be ruled out. Following that, the late April swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downturn, near $1,920, should gain the market’s attention.
On the contrary, strong NFP prints could weigh on the gold prices and drag it back below the resistance-turned-support around $1,853. In that case, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the latest swing low, respectively near $1,835 and $1,828, could lure the gold bears. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s downside past $1,828 won’t hesitate to break the $1,800 threshold before targeting May’s bottom of $1,786.
Overall, gold prices are likely to rise further as global markets await the US employment data for May.
EURUSD stays bullish above 1.0640 support, US PCE Inflation eyedEURUSD remains firmer inside a fortnight old bullish channel ahead of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also staying beyond the key SMAs. Currently, the channel’s upper line surrounding 1.0800 lures the pair buyers, a break of which will direct them towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April 21 to May 13 fall, near 1.0820. It’s worth noting that the RSI is speedily approaching the overbought territory and hence the run-up beyond 1.0820 appears difficult. However, a successful rise past 1.0820 won’t hesitate to challenge the latest peak close to 1.0935 with eyes on the 1.1000 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the 1.0640 support confluence, including 200-SMA and support line of the stated channel, also comprising the early May swing high. In a case where EURUSD drops below 1.0640, the 100-SMA level near 1.0550 will test the pair sellers, a break of which will allow them to revisit the monthly low of 1.0348.
To sum up, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar ahead of the key inflation data but the upside room is limited and hence buyers need strong numbers to dominate further.
EURUSD stays on the bull’s radar despite recent pullbackEURUSD consolidates the biggest daily gains in nearly three months around a fortnight top during Tuesday. In doing so, the major currency pair retreats from a weekly ascending trend channel’s resistance line amid an overbought RSI. However, the quote remains beyond the 200-SMA and previous resistance line from late March, respectively around 1.0650 and the 1.0560. Adding strength to the 1.0560 support is the lower line of the aforementioned channel. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA level of 1.0525 and April’s low of 1.0470 also challenge the pair’s weakness past 1.0560.
On the flip side, a fresh run-up will aim for another battle with the stated channel’s resistance line, near 1.0710 at the latest. Also acting as the key upside hurdle is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May downside, close to 1.0765. In a case where EURUSD rises past 1.0765, the bulls can aim for late April’s swing high surrounding 1.0935.
Overall, EURUSD bears need to stay cautious before taking any major positions as the quote is yet to defy the previous breakouts.
EURUSD bears dominate ahead of EU GDP, US Retail SalesEURUSD portrays a bearish consolidation inside a seven-week-old descending trend channel ahead of the key Eurozone GDP for Q1 2022, the US Retail Sales for April and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Although oversold RSI conditions challenge the pair’s further downside, a convergence of the stated channel’s resistance line and the 10-SMA, around 1.0500, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers. Even if the quote rises past 1.0500, the monthly high surrounding 1.0640 and March’s low of 1.0805 will challenge the upside momentum before welcoming the buyers.
On the contrary, lows marked since 2017, around 1.0350-40, restrict the short-term downside of the EURUSD. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the 1.0300 threshold becomes imminent. However, a convergence of the aforementioned channel’s lower line and downward sloping trend line from late January, close to 1.0220-10, could gain the market’s attention before the 1.0200 round figure. It’s worth noting that the pair’s south-run past 1.0200 seems a slow grind towards the 1.0000 psychological magnet.
Overall, the EURUSD pair’s downside has recently stalled but the trend remains bearish.
Gold bears need validation from $1,835 to take controlGold’s failure to rebound from $1,850 joins bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful as markets await the key US inflation numbers. However, a convergence of an ascending support line from August 2021 and 200-DMA appears a tough nut to crack for bearish as RSI nears the oversold territory. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside past $1,835 will make the metal vulnerable to drop towards the yearly low surrounding $1,780. During the fall, the $1,800 threshold may act as an intermediate halt.
On the contrary, recovery moves may again aim to cross an 11-week-long horizontal hurdle of around $1,890. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August 2021 to March 2022 upside, near $1,916, will be on the gold bull’s radar. In a case where gold prices remain solid past $1,916, an upward trajectory towards $1,980 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, gold approaches crucial support ahead of the all-important US CPI and a strong reading will suggest escalating price pressure, which in turn could solidify the USD while likely negatively affecting the quote.
EURUSD’s bear flag hints at further fall in pricesAlthough the weekly channel restricts EURUSD moves while other major currency pairs portray heavy selling against the USD, the bearish flag formation joins downbeat MACD and RSI signals to keep sellers hopeful. Additionally favoring the pair bears is the sustained trading below a descending trend line from March, as well as the 200-SMA and a six-week-old horizontal resistance. However, the south-run needs a trigger and 1.0500 is the same to activate a theoretical slump targeting the 1.0000 psychological magnet. Though, lows marked during 2017 and mid-1999, respectively around 1.0340 and 1.0100, may act as intermediate halts during the anticipated fall.
Alternatively, the upper line of mentioned flag, around 1.0650, acts as an immediate upside barrier during the corrective pullback. Following that, the previously stated descending resistance line and the 200-SMA, near 1.0730 and 1.0810 in that order, will act as additional barriers for the EURUSD bulls. It’s worth noting that the pair bears remain hopeful until the quote rallies beyond the multi-day-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 1.0950.
To sum up, the EURUSD pair’s hesitance in declining isn’t an early sign of recovery in prices.
EURUSD rebound appears overdue ahead of Fed’s showdownEURUSD holds onto the one-week-old sideways grind ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As a 0.50% rate hike is well-known, as well as priced-in, the Fed will have to supersede market expectations to stay ahead of the curve and keep US dollar on the throne. In that case, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March, around 1.0485, holds the key to the south-run targeting the 2017’s yearly bottom surrounding 1.0340. However, the 1.0400 threshold will act as an intermediate halt while portraying the Fed’s superpower action.
In a case where the US central banker chose to disappoint markets, by either meeting expectations of a 0.50% rate lift or resisting faster consolidation of policy, the EURUSD pair could witness the much-awaited rebound, as signalled by the oversold RSI line. The following recovery could quickly bounce back beyond the previous support line, around 1.0580, before challenging the 78.6% FE level surrounding 1.0630-35. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0635, the 1.0760 level comprising the 61.8% FE acts as the last defence for the buyers.
Overall, EURUSD prices have witnessed notable downside in anticipation of the Fed’s larger-than-life move but an actual outcome will be crucial for the next moves.
Rising wedge confirmation keeps gold sellers hopefulDespite bouncing off 100-SMA, gold prices fail to reject the rising wedge bearish chart pattern confirmation portrayed on Tuesday. The downbeat RSI and MACD conditions also support the recent pullback targeting the 100-SMA level of $1,945. Following that, the monthly low surrounding $1,890 will gain the market’s attention ahead of the theoretical target of the stated wedge, near $1,850.
Meanwhile, 50-SMA joins the previous support line of the bearish formation and challenges gold buyers at around $1,965. Should the metal prices rise past $1,965, recovery moves can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March month’s downside near $1,980. However, a convergence of the rising wedge’s resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around $2,005, will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
Other than the technical details, today’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also likely to act as a bearish factor for the gold traders as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Boss is anticipated to hint at a faster rate hike and balance sheet normalization.
Gold bears look to sub-$1,900 zone with eyes on FedGold prices pare the previous day’s downside break of a six-week-old rising trend line, as well as the 21-DMA around the mid-2021 peak. As the RSI line remains far from oversold territory, the latest breakdown can keep favoring sellers amid firmer US Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) widely anticipated rate hike. That said, a horizontal region comprising highs marked during November 2021 and early February of 2022, close to $1,880-77 lures the bears ahead of highlighting the 50-DMA level of $1,864.
On the contrary, a surprisingly dovish hike may trigger the metal’s rebound, in which the previous support line, around $1,957, becomes crucial to watch. Should gold buyers dominate past $1,957, the $2,000 threshold will be on their radars. It’s worth mentioning that the bullion’s run-up beyond $2,000 could escalate the run-up towards the $2,045-50 resistance-zone, a break of which won’t hesitate to refresh the all-time high marked in 2020 around $2,075.
To sum up, gold sellers are inclined to retake controls but it all depends upon the Fed.
