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EURUSD: Rising wedge signals bullish exhaustion, focus on dataEURUSD pares its biggest daily loss in 11 weeks early Thursday. In doing so, it's bouncing back from a key support level and the 50-Exponential Moving Average (EMA). EURUSD bulls take a breather… This rebound suggests that the Euro might be running out of steam before important economic data is released. Among them, the first reading of Germany’s inflation for August and the US Q2 GDP’s revision gain the attention of intraday traders. That said, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators suggest a potential bullish trend, but confirmation is needed. Key technical levels to watch… The EURUSD buyers need validation from a one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.1150 and the US/German data to keep the reins. Following that, the yearly high marked earlier in the week around 1.1200 will lure the Euro bulls. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.1200, the aforementioned wedge’s top line of near 1.1250 and the previous yearly top of 1.1275 will act as the final defenses of the sellers. On the contrary, EURUSD sellers must wait for a clear downside break of 1.1100 to confirm the bearish chart formation and aim for further declines. In that case, a convergence of the 200-EMA and an ascending trend line from early June, the previous resistance near 1.0980, will be in the spotlight. Should the pair remain bearish past 1.0980, the odds of witnessing further downward trajectory toward the rising wedge’s theoretical target of 1.0680 can’t be ruled out. What next? In summary, the EURUSD is currently on a positive track, but further gains may depend on upcoming economic data and potential pullbacks.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY: Off 13-month-old support during short-term downtrendUSDJPY has bounced back from a key support level that’s been in place for 13 months but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair faces resistance from this old support line, now turned resistance, and the 21-day moving average (SMA). USDJPY recovery appears unreal… Although USDJPY is recovering from significant trendline support of around 143.70, indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a strong bullish trend may not be likely. Additionally, market uncertainty before upcoming Japanese economic data and the US Core PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure) adds to the uncertainty. Key technical levels to watch… USDJPY pair’s recovery appears less convincing unless it crosses the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.20. That said, the 21-SMA and the multi-month-old previous support line, respectively near 146.40 and 149.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the buyers before giving them control. On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 143.70 trend line support will direct the USDJPY bears toward the late 2023 bottom surrounding 140.45 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. In a case where the prices remain bearish past 140.00, an area comprising levels marked since March 2023, close to 137.90-70, will be the last defense of the buyers. What next? USDJPY is at a critical support level. A short-term bounce is possible, but the chance of further declines is higher unless the pair breaks through the 151.20 resistance.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at 29-month high on UK Bank HolidayGBPUSD licks its wounds at the highest level since March 2022 as the overbought RSI line jostles with an upside break of the ascending resistance line, now support around 1.3060. This breakout, along with strong MACD signals and a weaker US Dollar, could push the pair towards the 1.3440 level, where it meets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from May 2021 to September 2022. However, reaching the 1.3620 resistance level might be challenging for buyers. On the flip side, the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line puts a floor under the GBPUSD prices around 1.3060. That said, the 1.3000 psychological magnet also acts as a short-term support for the Cable pair traders to watch. In a case where the Pound Sterling bears keep the reins past 1.3000, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the Golden Fibonacci Ratio, near 1.2780, quickly followed by the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding 1.2730, will act as the final defenses of the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is gearing up to test a long-term resistance line. With the UK on holiday and a cautious market awaiting US inflation data, the pair might pause its advance early this week.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bounces off resistance-turned-support, Jackson Hole eyedGold prices have ended a two-day drop as traders look ahead to the key Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, where a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated. Gold has bounced back from its recent low, rebounding off the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a key previous resistance line. Positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest that gold could push past the $2,520 mark comprising the 50% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its February-June move. Following that, the buyers can aim for $2,575 and potentially $2,600. On the downside, gold is supported by the 10-day EMA around $2,482 and a former resistance level now acting as support near $2,474. If gold drops below these levels, it could test the $2,465 mark and the 50-day EMA at $2,415. A further decline past $2,415 would need to break through a support line of around $2,410 and the $2,400 level to shift control to sellers. In summary, gold is on a positive path, but there are hurdles ahead before it can make significant gains.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD jostles with key resistance, PMI, Fed’s Powell eyedEURUSD traders are taking a break at its highest level since July 2023 as they await August PMI data for the Eurozone and the US. They are also keeping an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole event on Friday. The overbought RSI indicates a potential pullback, with immediate support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from July-October 2023, near 1.1100. If the price falls, the rising support line near 1.1030 and the range of levels from late November 2023 around 1.1010-1.0980 might hold strong against further declines. For EURUSD buyers to regain confidence, they need to break the yearly high of around 1.1175. Overcoming this could lead to resistance around 1.1200-1.1210 before reaching the late 2023 high of around 1.1275. If the pair surpasses 1.1275, it might gradually rise towards the 2022 high near 1.1500. In summary, EURUSD is still in a bullish trend, though a short-term pullback is possible.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY sellers keep eyes on 144.00 and FOMC MinutesThe USDJPY pair is currently recovering from its lowest point in two weeks and breaking a three-day losing streak. The US Dollar is bouncing back from a yearly low as traders await the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Despite this bounce, the Yen pair is still trading below important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and shows bearish signs from the MACD indicator, keeping sellers optimistic. If the USDJPY continues to drop, it might soon test the 144.00 support level, which has held for about 12 days. A fall below 144.00 could push the pair towards the July low of around 141.70. However, the Yen pair will need to move past the 50% Fibonacci Extension near 141.30 before targeting 140.00 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension around 139.40-35. On the upside, the 50 and 100 EMAs are likely to cap the USDJPY’s immediate gains, with resistance levels around 147.10 and 148.50. Beyond that, the pair might face resistance at the previous weekly high near 149.40 and the 150.00 level. If it breaks above 150.00, the final resistance points are at the 200-EMA level around 151.15 and the late July swing low near 151.95. In summary, while the USDJPY is currently recovering, the bears remain in control as traders await key news.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD buyers can ignore pullback from one-month highGBPUSD snaps a three-day winning streak by easing from its highest level in a month as the US Dollar licks its wounds at the multi-month low. Despite this retreat, the Cable pair is still trading within a long-term upward trend channel and above important support levels. The positive signals from the RSI and MACD suggest that the Pound Sterling could still rise. The immediate support is a 10-day-old rising support line surrounding 1.2880, with further support at 1.2800 from the 50-SMA. If the price drops further, the next supports are at 1.2675 (200-SMA) and 1.2450 (trend channel bottom). On the upside, the GBPUSD pair’s ability to break through the yearly high and the upper trend channel near 1.3045-50 will be tested to keep buyers on the table. The 1.3000 level is also a key resistance point, with the potential to push towards 1.3100 and the mid-2023 peak of around 1.3145 later on. Overall, GBPUSD remains an appealing option for buyers, even if short-term gains slow down.
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge portrays EURUSD buyer’s exhaustion ahead of US dataEURUSD is bouncing back after a big drop, as traders wait for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations for August. This bounce reverses the previous day’s decline from the highest level of 2024 and moves off the bottom of a four-week bearish chart pattern called rising wedge. The RSI indicates that the recent price increase might continue, but the MACD suggests weakening buyer interest. For sellers to take control, they need to break below the wedge’s bottom line at around 1.0960 and the 50-SMA support at 1.0946. If they succeed, they might face challenges at the 200-SMA and an upward trend line near 1.0875 and 1.0830, respectively. After that, the price could drop toward the wedge’s theoretical target of around 1.0700. On the other hand, the 1.1000 level is attracting buyers, with the recent high of 1.1050 in sight. The top line of the wedge near 1.1055 could also act as resistance. Future resistance points include December and July 2023 highs near 1.1140 and 1.1275, and the 1.1200 level might provide a resting point for buyers. Overall, the EURUSD pair is struggling to gain momentum in a bearish pattern ahead of US economic data. Sellers need confirmation from both technical and fundamental factors to take control.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers stay optimistic around mid-$2,400s within triangleGold has ended a two-day drop by bouncing off its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) within a symmetrical triangle pattern that's been forming for seven weeks. This bounce supports the idea that the Fed might cut rates, together with the positive MACD signals and the trend-favorable RSI line. The key levels to watch are the triangle's range of $2,475 to $2,393 and the 50-day EMA support at $2,391. If gold moves past $2,475, it could test an upward resistance line from early April, reaching around $2,498. After that, $2,500 will be an additional hurdle for the metal before potentially rising to $2,522 and $2,562, which are based on 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of gold's moves from March to July. If gold falls below $2,391, it might drop to the late July low of about $2,353 and then to $2,350. There's also a strong support region between $2,293 and $2,285 from late April to June, which if broken, could push gold towards $2,200. Overall, gold is performing well due to positive technical indicators and concerns about possible US Fed rate cuts, supported by recent US inflation data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD reverses from 200-SMA hurdle on RBNZ’s surprise rate cutNZDUSD dropped over 1.0% today, making the biggest move among major currencies. This happened because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its main interest rate by 0.25%, surprising markets which expected no change. As a result, the NZDUSD pair fell from a one-month high and struggled to break through a key resistance level, namely the 200-day SMA. Despite this, positive MACD and RSI indicators suggest that buyers may stay optimistic, as long as the price remains above a support line from late October 2023, currently around 0.5885. For the short-term, the quote could drop to the 0.6000 mark and potentially test a 23.6% Fibonacci support level around 0.5920. A drop below 0.5885 could push the pair towards its late 2023 low of around 0.5770. For a new buying opportunity, buyers should wait for the price to break above the 200-SMA resistance at about 0.6085. If successful, the next targets could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a significant resistance zone near 0.6170 and 0.6220. If the price stays above 0.6220, the 78.6% Fibonacci level around 0.6275 and a long-term resistance line near 0.6320 could be the next barriers for the bulls. In summary, while NZDUSD might see a short-term drop due to negative factors, the overall bullish trend is expected to continue.
by MTradingGlobal
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USDJPY eyes another bear run, focus on Japan GDP, US inflationEarly Monday, the USDJPY has risen slightly above 147.00 after its first weekly gain in six weeks. This increase follows a rebound from a seven-month low. The rise is supported by a recovery in the RSI and positive signals from the MACD. However, the pair’s failure to defend a week-long bullish trend channel and its continued trading below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still keeps bears hopeful. Additionally, a downward trend line from early July suggests that sellers still control the market. The USDJPY is likely to stay under pressure unless it can rise above a resistance line near 150.80. Currently, the 50-EMA and the lower end of the rising channel, around 147.85-90, are key levels to watch. The 150.00 level may offer additional resistance, and if the pair can surpass 150.80, it might target around 155.50. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 145.50 and 143.30. If the price falls further, the monthly low near 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00 could come into play. If the USDJPY drops below 140.00, it might test the mid-2023 low around 137.25. While technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY, traders should be cautious due to upcoming economic data releases, including Japan’s Q2 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers take a breather above 100-SMA, focus on $2,450Gold's recent strong performance suggests a positive sentiment among buyers, especially with its breakout above the 100-SMA and supportive RSI and MACD indicators. This technical strength points to a potential push towards the $2,450 resistance level, with further challenges anticipated at around $2,470 from a mid-July trend line, and additional resistance at $2,495 and $2,500. On the downside, sellers will need a break below the 100-SMA, currently around $2,411, to gain momentum. Such a move could test the $2,400 mark, with further support levels at $2,383 and $2,350. In summary, while Gold is currently on the buyers' radar, the upcoming resistance levels may cap the upside potential.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays bullish exhaustion, focus on 1.0960 and US dataEURUSD is seeing its first daily gains in three days as buyers gear up to tackle key resistance levels ahead of upcoming US employment data. Supported by positive RSI indicators and bullish MACD signals, the Euro pair aims to extend its recent uptrend towards a 13-month-old descending resistance line around 1.0950. Beyond this, it targets the upper boundary of a bullish channel stretched from April, near 1.0960. Breaking above these levels could pave the way for a challenge of the psychological barrier at 1.1000, with potential further gains towards the late 2023 peak near 1.1140. On the downside, June’s peak at approximately 1.0915 and the 1.0900 mark, along with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0860, act as immediate support. Deeper declines might find additional footing near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0790 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0765. Euro buyers maintain optimism unless there is a daily close below the bullish channel’s lower boundary near 1.0700. Overall, while EURUSD bulls show signs of slowing down, bearish momentum is muted, even if US economic data boosts the US Dollar.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bounces off 100-SMA but bears stay hopefulThe GBPUSD saw its first daily gain in three days on Wednesday, bouncing back from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This move shows the 100-SMA support level at 1.2682 is holding strong, and the descending RSI (14) indicates the downtrend is weak. However, the Pound Sterling’s continued dip below the 50-SMA and previous support level near 1.2785-2800, along with bearish MACD signals, keep sellers hopeful. If the price stays above 1.2800, the March peak around 1.2900 and the top of a 10-month-old upward trend channel near 1.3030 will be challenging for buyers. On the other hand, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA are limiting the GBPUSD's short-term decline, with support around 1.2680 and 1.2650. After that, the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the pair's July-October 2023 drop, near 1.2590 and 1.2455, will be key for sellers. Overall, Pound Sterling buyers can stay in control as long as the 10-month-long upward trend channel, which ranges from 1.3030 to 1.2440, remains intact. In summary, GBPUSD is expected to test the sellers, but for the bullish trend to continue, it needs to stay above 1.2800.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY slumps to seven-month low amid risk aversion, BoJ biasUSDJPY begins the week on a back foot while declining for the fifth consecutive day to the lowest since early January. The Yen pair’s latest fall could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood and concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) further rate hikes versus the fresh bias about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) requirement for more rate cuts. Also keeping the bears hopeful is the quote’s clear downside break of an upward-sloping support line from January 2023. With this, USDJPY bears are completely in control and can move further toward the late 2023 bottom of around 140.25, quickly followed by the 140.00 threshold. However, the oversold RSI (14) line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s January 2023 to July 2024 upside, near 140.40, can challenge the quote’s further declines. If the pair drops past 140.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward July 2023 low of near 137.20 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from a 50% Fibonacci ratio of 144.55. Following that, the lows marked during February and March of the current year, respectively near 145.90 and 146.50, will precede the multi-month-old support-turned-resistance of surrounding 148.60 to challenge the Yen pair buyers. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the rejection of the latest bearish trend signals will only be possible if the quote stays successfully above the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.60. Overall, the USDJPY pair sneaked into the bearish trend but the road toward the south is long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebounds from key EMAs as bearish channel, US NFP eyedEURUSD remains mildly bid around 1.0830 early Thursday as it defends the previous day’s recovery from the 200-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish halt of the benchmark rates. It’s worth noting, however, that bearish MACD signals and a week-long descending trend channel challenge the Euro pair buyers ahead of the top-tier activity and employment clues from the US, scheduled for publishing later today and on Friday. That said, the steady RSI (14) line hints at a continuation of the latest rebound. As a result, the bulls should wait for a clear upside break of the stated channel’s top line, close to 1.0855 at the latest, and the US ISM PMIs and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for conviction. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the 1.0900 threshold can’t be ruled out. However, an upward-sloping resistance line from early April, near 1.0950 by the press time, followed by the 1.1000 threshold, will be tough nuts to crack for the buyers to crack. On the flip side, an area comprising the 100 and 200 EMAs surrounding 1.0810-800 restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. If the Euro bears manage to smash the stated EMAs on a daily closing basis, the falling channel’s bottom line will act as the final defense of the sellers around 1.0785. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci ratios of the pair’s April-July rise, respectively near 1.0730 and 1.0670, could act as intermediate halts during the pair’s weakness past 1.0785 and on the way to the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain firmer but the room towards the north appears limited. Also challenging the pair buyers is the cautious mood ahead of the US ISM PMI and employment figures for July.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY drops and pops from 200-SMA on BoJ rate hike, Fed eyedUSDJPY defends the previous day’s retreat from a three-week-old falling resistance line even after the pair’s volatile move post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcements. It’s worth noting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its benchmark rate to 0.25%, from 0.10%, on Wednesday and drowned the Yen pair toward the 200-SMA during the first few minutes. However, the Japanese central bank’s decision to taper bond purchases and cautious tone of economic assessment triggered the quote’s rebound afterward. The US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting also allowed the pair to drop to a multi-day low before bouncing off the key moving average of 151.60. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly oversold RSI (14) line signals limited downside room for the pair past the 200-SMA support of 151.60. The same highlights the aforementioned short-term resistance line surrounding 153.60 as an immediate hurdle to watch for the buyer’s entry. Following that, the pair’s gradual run-up toward the 100-SMA and previous support line stretched from December 2023, around 155.65 and 158.80 respectively. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 151.60 will need validation from 5.5-month-old horizontal support near 151.00-150.90 to keep the sellers on board. Following that, the quote’s weakness toward the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of late 2023 to July 2024 upside, surrounding 148.50, and then to March’s low of near 146.45 can’t be ruled out. It should be observed that the 150.00 psychological magnet will act as an extra filter toward the south. Overall, USDJPY fails to cheer the BoJ’s rate hike and bounces off the key SMA amid oversold RSI conditions. The same suggests the quote’s further recovery if buyers manage to cross the immediate resistance line and gain support from the hawkish FOMC announcements.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD drops to resistance-turned-support with eyes on Fed, BoEGBPUSD remains pressured after refreshing a three-week low the previous day. In doing so, the Cable pair extends the mid-week retreat from a year-long horizontal resistance while posting the first daily closing beneath the 21-SMA since July 02, 2024. Apart from that, the bearish MACD signals and the RSI line’s hovering around the 50.00 region also suggest the Pound Sterling’s further weakness. However, a previous resistance line stretched from late July 2023, close to 1.2835 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the quote. Following that, 50-SMA and a three-month-old ascending trend line, respectively near 1.2780 and 1.2760, will act as the final defenses of buyers before giving control to the sellers. Meanwhile, GBPUSD buyers will need validation from the 21-SMA hurdle of 1.2872 and monetary policy announcements of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE). Even so, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 downturn and the aforementioned horizontal resistance region, close to 1.2910 and 1.3000 in that order, will be tough nuts to crack for the Pound Sterling bulls. If the Cable pair stays firmer past 1.3000, the previous yearly peak surrounding 1.3145 will be in the spotlight. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair is likely to decline further but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price rebounds from 50-SMA ahead of Fed inflationGold consolidates weekly loss while posting a corrective bounce from the lowest level in 13 days as traders await the US Core PCE Price Index for June, also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. In doing so, the precious metal takes a U-turn from the 50-SMA but stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss after refreshing the all-time high during mid-July. Despite the latest rebound in prices, the commodity’s sustained trading below a month-old rising support line, now resistance near $2,428, joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line to keep the sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 50-SMA level of $2,359 becomes necessary to recall the bullion sellers. Following that, the 100-SMA level of $2,324 and an upward-sloping support line from early May, near the $2,300 threshold, appear as some of the last defenses of the buyers. It’s worth observing that lows marked in May and June around $2,285 and $2,277 will act as additional downside filters for the metal traders to watch during its declines past $2,300. Meanwhile, the 21-SMA level of $2,388 and the $2,400 threshold guard the immediate upside of the Gold price ahead of the support-turned-resistance line surrounding $2,428. Following that, May’s high of $2,450 and the latest peak surrounding $2,484 could entertain the XAUUSD bulls. However, an upward-sloping trend line resistance from early April, near $2,490 as we write, quickly followed by the $2,500 round figure, appear tough nuts to crack for the bullion buyers. To sum up, Gold is likely to remain pressured within a trading range established since April. However, the trend line breakdown can join upbeat Fed inflation to please short-term sellers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears keep reins with eyes on US GDP, ECB’s LagardeEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight as sellers jostle with a 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support ahead of the US Q2 GDP and a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the early-week breakdown of a month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near 1.0900. However, downbeat RSI conditions and a looming bull cross on the MACD hint at the quote’s corrective bounce off the stated EMA support of 1.0825. In a case where the Euro prices remain weak past 1.0825, the 1.0800 threshold and 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of April-July upside, near 1.0735, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0675, will be important to watch for the bears ahead of targeting the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.0600. Alternatively, downbeat US statistics could join the hawkish comments from ECB’s Lagarde to underpin the EURUSD pair’s rebound from the key EMA support of 1.0825. The same line highlights the support-turned-resistance line stretched from late June, near the 1.0900 threshold at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that the Euro buyer’s ability to keep the reins past 1.0900 depends on a clear upside break of an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early April, around 1.0950 as we write. Following that, the bulls can easily challenge the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Overall, EURUSD prices are likely to remain weak unless crossing 1.0950. However, the downside room appears limited and may lack momentum due to the scheduled data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD renews 13-week high ahead of BoC, US PMIUSDCAD rises for the sixth consecutive day while extending the early-week breakout of a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-April, now immediate support, as traders await the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision. Apart from the trend line breakout and dovish expectations from the BoC, hopes of witnessing upbeat US S&P Global PMI for July and softer prices of Canada’s key export, namely Crude Oil, also propel the Loonie pair. However, the RSI (14) line approaches the overbought territory, which in turn highlights an 8.5-month-old descending trend line resistance surrounding 1.3815 as the key upside barrier for the bulls. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.3815, the yearly high of near 1.3845 and the early November 2023 swing top surrounding 1.3855 will act as additional hurdles for buyers before directing them toward the 2023 high of 1.3900 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, a hawkish surprise from the BoC and/or downbeat US data and strong crude oil prices might drag the USDCAD pair back toward the resistance-turned-support line surrounding 1.3750. It should be observed, however, that a convergence of the 50 and 21 SMAs, near 1.3685-80 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the Loonie pair bears. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.3680, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the November-December 2023 downturn, around 1.3625, will precede the 200-SMA level of 1.3598 to act as the final defense of the bull before giving total control the sellers. Overall, the USDCAD is likely to extend the latest run-up toward the key upside hurdle. However, the quote’s rush to refresh the yearly peak needs some time and/or a strong catalyst.
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge confirmation, PBOC rate cut lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD drops to a three-week low early Monday while printing a six-day losing streak as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise rate cut. The Chinese central bank’s action pushed the Aussie pair to confirm a 3.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. However, the 50-SMA support of 0.6670 challenges the sellers of late. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the rising wedge confirmation tease bears ahead of the US/Australia PMIs for July and the US Q2 GDP, not to forget the US Core PCE Price Index that is also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Hence, a daily closing beneath 0.6670 appears necessary to convince the bears to target the 0.6600 threshold. Following that, the 200-SMA support of 0.6581 can test the downside momentum, along with downbeat RSI conditions, before allowing the sellers to aim for 0.6500 and 0.6400, as well as challenge the yearly peak surrounding 0.6360. On the flip side, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, now immediate resistance around the 0.6700 round figure. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of December 2023 to March 2024 upside, near 0.6765, and the monthly high of 0.6798 could test the buyers. It’s worth observing that the rejection of the bearish chart formation, by a daily closing beyond 0.6815, appears a strong signal for the Aussie bulls to challenge the yearly peak of 0.6839. Overall, AUDUSD appears ready to welcome the bears but a slew of top-tier data/events will be decisive to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold extends pullback from all-time high towards sub-$2,400 zoneGold price remains pressured for the third consecutive day while extending the mid-week pullback from an all-time high. In doing so, the spot gold price (XAUUSD) retreats from a three-month-old ascending resistance line backed by the RSI’s U-turn from overbought territory. Apart from that, the US Dollar’s corrective bounce and receding bullish bias of the MACD signals also underpin odds favoring the bullion’s further profit booking. The same highlights a convergence of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a three-week-long rising trend line, close to $2,395. It’s worth mentioning that the $2,400 threshold acts as immediate support while multiple peaks and troughs can challenge the sellers near $2,360 and $2,330-35. Above all, the precious metal bears remain off the table unless witnessing a daily closing beneath an ascending support line from early April, close to $2,300 by the press time. Also acting as the downside filter is the 100-EMA level of $2,296, a break of which will welcome bears with open arms. On the contrary, Gold buyers seek a clear upside break of the three-month-old horizontal support-turned-resistance surrounding $2,431-34 to retake control. Following that, the precious metal’s run-up toward May’s peak of $2,450 and then to the recent swing high near $2,484 can’t be ruled out. However, the RSI conditions and the aforementioned multi-day-old resistance line, at $2,486 as we write, might challenge the XAUUSD bulls past $2,484. Following that, the bullion will be able to pierce the $2,500 round figure. To sum up, further decline in the Gold price appears certain but the bullish trend is less likely to reverse.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal