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GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY extends recovery from key supports, US Retail Sales eyedUSDJPY rises the most among the G10 currency pairs early Tuesday while stretching the previous day’s recovery from an upward-sloping support line from late December 2023 and the 50-SMA. Adding strength to the Yen pair’s rebound is the improvement in the RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the 21-SMA hurdle, currently around 160.00, challenge the bulls ahead of the US Retail Sales for June. Apart from the short-term Simple Moving Average (SMA), an 11-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 160.30 will also tame the pair’s further upside. It’s worth mentioning that multiple tops marked since the start of July and ascending trend line from late April, respectively near 161.80 and 162.35, act as the final defense of the pair sellers. Meanwhile, 50-SMA and the aforementioned ascending trend line from late December 2023, close to 157.90 and 157.60 in that order, put a floor under the USDJPY pair for a short term. In a case where the Yen pair closes beneath 157.60, it becomes vulnerable to test the previous monthly low of around 154.50. However, May’s low of 151.85 and early 2024 peak surrounding 150.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the sellers afterward. To sum up, USDJPY remains in a bullish trend ahead of the key US data but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays on the way to 0.6850 hurdle despite downbeat ChinaAUDUSD prints mild losses while snapping a four-day winning streak and paring the previous gains from a five-week uptrend after China reported downbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales early Monday. Even so, the Aussie pair defends last week’s upside break of a four-month-old ascending resistance line, now immediate support at 0.6750. The RSI (14) line’s retreat from overbought territory suggests the quote’s additional weakness, but the bullish MACD signals can join the trend line breakout to keep buyers hopeful past 0.6750. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s daily closing beneath 0.6750 will direct bears toward May’s peak of 0.6714. Following that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-October downside, near 0.6660, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6605 to act as the final defense of the buyers. On the contrary, the AUDUSD buyers keep the reins beyond 0.6750 and can aim for the 0.6800 threshold for the short term. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from June 2023, close to 0.6850, quickly followed by the late 2023 high of 0.6870, appears tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6870, the odds of witnessing a run-up beyond the mid-2023 peak of 0.6900 will be certain, which in turn highlights the 0.7000 psychological magnet for the bulls. Overall, AUDUSD buyers can ignore the latest retreat unless the quote stays beyond 0.6750.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebounds from 157.80-75 support confluence, US data eyedUSDJPY pares the biggest daily loss in 10 weeks early Friday as traders await more clues for easing price pressure in the US, namely preliminary readings of the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and Consumer Inflation Expectations for July. It should be noted that a one-year low of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) drowned the Yen pair the previous day while mixed Japan statistics and the market’s consolidation favored the quote’s latest recovery. That said, a convergence of the 50-SMA and bottom line of a 2.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, around 157.80-75, recently triggered the pair’s rebound as RSI took a U-turn from the below-50 zone. However, bearish MACD signals could join the 160.20-30 region comprising highs and lows marked since April to challenge the bulls before directing them to the fresh high since 1986, which in turn highlights the aforementioned wedge’s top line surrounding 162.25. On the flip side, the USDJPY pair’s inability to defend the latest rebound will shift focus back to the 157.80-75 key support. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line support from late December 2023, close to 157.30 at the latest, will be the last defense of the buyers. In a case where the Yen pair remains bearish past 157.30, its subsequent fall to the previous monthly low near 154.50 and then to May’s bottom surrounding 151.85 can’t be ruled out. That said, the 150.00 psychological magnet will be the final post for the sellers to conquer ahead of gaining the throne. To sum up, USDJPY remains in a bullish trajectory despite the previous day’s heavy fall. The downside move needs validation from 157.30 and the US/Japan fundamentals.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need validation from $2,387-93 hurdle & US inflationGold price rises for the third consecutive day while paring weekly loss ahead of the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. In doing so, the precious metal justifies the bullish crossover of the 100-SMA to the 200-SMA and the firmer RSI (14) line. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding $2,387-93 joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge the bullion buyers. Should the quote stay firmer past $2,393, its run-up toward the $2,400 threshold and then to a 13-week-long horizontal resistance area near $2,431-34 will be quick. It’s worth mentioning that the XAUUSD’s successful rise past $2,434 won’t hesitate to renew the all-time high, currently marked in May at around $2,450. Meanwhile, a pullback in the Gold price highlights a fortnight-long rising support line, close to $2,365 at the latest. Following that, the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA will test the XAUUSD sellers around $2,342 and $2,337 respectively. In a case where the precious metal remains bearish past $2,337, traders can aim for $2,318 before jostling with an ascending support line from early April surrounding $2,298. If the bullion price holds onto the downward trajectory below $2,298, the $2,265 will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, Gold price remains in the bullish trajectory ahead of important data and hence softer/mixed prints of the US CPI can allow the buyers to cross the immediate upside hurdle.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
RBNZ’s dovish halt, downbeat China CPI weigh on NZDUSD Early Wednesday, NZDUSD prints the biggest daily fall in a fortnight on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish halt, as well as a softer print of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. That said, the RBNZ matched market expectations for holding the benchmark rate unchanged but showed readiness to welcome easy monetary policy if inflation slows further. On the other hand, China's CPI dropped to -0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY in June versus -0.1% and 0.4% market expectations, from -0.1% and 0.3% in that order. With this, NZDUSD drops more than 0.50% on a day as sellers attack the 200-SMA support of 0.6076. Adjacent to that is strong technical support comprising the 100-SMA and an 11-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6065 by the press time. In a case where the Kiwi pair prints a daily closing beneath 0.6065, a slew of peaks and troughs surrounding 0.6040-35 will test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an impending bull cross on the MACD and downbeat RSI joins the key supports to signal the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce, which in turn highlights a three-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6150-55. Should the Kiwi pair manage to cross the immediate upside hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the quote’s fall from December 2023 to April 2024, near 0.6175, will precede a six-month-old horizontal resistance zone around 0.6215-22 to act as the final defenses of the bears. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the recovery remains doubtful below 0.6222.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls stay hopeful ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s TestimonyEURUSD remains well-set on the buyer’s radar, despite snapping a four-day uptrend, as markets await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony. That said, the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals join the quote’s successful trading beyond a convergence of 100-SMA and 200-SMA to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 1.0840-50 guards the Euro pair’s immediate upside. Following that, descending trend lines from early March and January, respectively near 1.0875 and 1.0895, quickly followed by the 1.0900 threshold, will precede the previous monthly top of 1.0916 to challenge the pair’s further advances. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.0916, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 1.1000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the aforementioned key SMAs will join the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the EURUSD pair’s October-December 2023 upside to highlight 1.0800-1.0790 as the key support to watch during the quote’s fresh fall. Should the bears manage to conquer the stated support, the odds of witnessing a quick fall toward 1.0750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0710 can’t be ruled out. However, an upward-sloping support line from late 2023, close to 1.0680 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the Euro bears afterward. To sum up, the EURUSD remains in the upward trajectory despite the week-start pullback. Hence, Fed Chair Powell’s attempt to revive the US Dollar's strength, by providing hawkish clues and/or ruling out economic woes, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
by MTradingGlobal
Crude Oil retreats from 11-week high as eventful week beginsWTI Crude Oil remains pressured after reversing from an 11-week high the previous day, especially when the US Dollar posts a corrective bounce ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. The black gold’s retreat also highlights the importance of the support-turned-resistance line stretched from mid-December 2023 and a downward-sloping trend line from late September last year. It’s worth noting that the RSI’s pullback from the overbought territory and the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals also favor the energy benchmark’s latest consolidation. With this, the quote will likely extend the latest fall toward testing the 10-SMA support of $82.50. However, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the commodity’s late 2023 fall and the 100-SMA, respectively near $81.40 and $80.40, quickly followed by the $80.00 psychological magnet, will challenge the Oil bears afterward. In a case where the prices remain weak past $80.00, an area comprising tops marked from mid-November 2023 to January 2024 near $79.70-25, will be the last defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears. Meanwhile, a downward-sloping resistance line from September 2023, close to $84.10 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the black gold. Following that, the previous support line from late 2023 will test the oil buyers near $84.70. It’s worth noting, however, that a 9.5-month-old falling resistance line surrounding $86.50 appears a tough nut to crack for the commodity buyers, a break of which will allow them to challenge the yearly high of $87.60. Overall, Crude Oil is likely to witness further consolidation in prices as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bi-annual Testimony and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) loom.
TVC:USOIL
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers have various obstacles to tackle, including US NFPDespite posting a Doji candlestick on Thursday, the Gold price appears well set for the second consecutive weekly gain as traders await the US employment details for June. In doing so, the XAUUSD defends the mid-week breakout of a month-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around $2,350, backed by upbeat RSI conditions and the bullish MACD signals. Also keeping the bullion buyers hopeful is the quote’s ability to stay beyond the 50-SMA level. However, a slew of upside hurdles and likely upbeat prints of the US jobs report, including the top-tier Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), test optimists ahead of the key data. Among the resistances, a fortnight-old horizontal area surrounding $2,365-68 caps the immediate upside of the precious metal. Following that, a region comprising multiple tops marked since mid-April, near $2,387-92, will challenge the advances before the last defense of the bears, namely a three-month-old horizontal region around $2,431-34. It’s worth noting that the $2,400 threshold and the all-time high marked in May around $2,450 are extra filters toward the north. Meanwhile, the Gold sellers will need validation from strong US employment data and a daily closing beneath the resistance-turned-support line surrounding $2,350. In that case, the 50-SMA level of $2,339 will grab the attention of short-term XAUUSD bears. Should the quote remain weak past $2,339, it will quickly drop to $2,318 but a convergence of a three-month-old rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci ratio of March-May upside, near $2,297-96, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers afterward. If the bullion bears manage to keep the reins past $2,296, the early April swing low of near $2,265 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of $2,261 can flash on their radars. Overall, Gold remains bullish ahead of the top-tier data but the upside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls jostle with 200-SMA hurdle on US HolidayEURUSD struggles to keep the buyers on board early Thursday, after rising for four consecutive days, as market momentum dwindles during the US holiday. That said, the Euro pair jumped to a three-week high while rising the most in a week after the US statistics drowned Greenback the previous day. However, the cautious mood ahead of Friday’s key US employment report might have challenged the bulls of late, especially amid dicey markets. That said, the RSI’s pullback from the overbought region and receding bullish bias of the MACD joins the 200-SMA to limit the quote’s further upside past 1.0790-85. Even if the quote crosses the 1.0790 hurdle, the 1.0800 threshold and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of March-April fall, close to 1.0840, will prod the additional advances. Above all, a four-month-old descending resistance line, close to 1.0895, quickly followed by the 1.0900 round figure, will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s retreat appears elusive beyond the week-start peak of around 1.0776. Following that, the 100-SMA support of 1.0730 will be crucial to watch for the Euro bears. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending support line from mid-April, close to 1.0680 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain on the bull’s radar during a less active day. However, the quote’s upside room appears limited and hence highlights Friday’s key data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD pokes key upside hurdles as UK/US PMI, Fed Minutes loomGBPUSD struggles to defend the five-day uptrend early Wednesday as traders await key activity numbers from the UK and the US, as well as Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that the US Dollar’s weakness past Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech propelled the quote’s previous rebound from a two-month-old horizontal support, enabling buyers to poke the 100-bar SMA. Also underpinning the upside bias are the firmer RSI conditions and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA’s bearish cross of the 200-SMA, known as the death cross, challenges the Cable buyers unless crossing the broader moving average, namely the 200-SMA hurdle of 1.2715. Following that, the mid-June swing high of around 1.2740 and 1.2800 become imminent targets for the Pound Sterling buyers before aiming for the previous monthly high of around 1.2860. Meanwhile, GBPUSD sellers need firmer US data and hawkish Fed Minutes, as well as a successful break of the aforementioned two-month-old horizontal support surrounding 1.2610-15. Following that, the Cable bears will aim for the 1.2550 and the 1.2500 thresholds ahead of challenging May’s bottom surrounding 1.2445. It should be observed that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness past 1.2445 will make it vulnerable to challenge the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.2300. To sum up, the GBPUSD bulls are at a crossroads and need a fundamental push to keep the reins.
by MTradingGlobal
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AUDUSD drops within a symmetrical triangle after RBA MinutesAUDUSD extends the week-start losses toward 0.6600 as Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting fail to inspire the bulls despite pushing back the odds of rate cuts, especially backed by the recent upbeat Australian inflation clues. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a fortnight-old rising support line, respectively near 0.6645 and 0.6630, restrict the short-term downside of the Aussie pair within a two-month-old symmetrical triangle formation, currently between 0.6700 and 0.6585. Given the normal RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals, the quote is likely to remain chopped within the stated triangle. Even so, increasing odds of the US Dollar’s run-up on hawkish Fed Minutes and the upbeat US jobs report keep the sellers hopeful. That said, a clear downside break of 0.6585 makes the pair vulnerable to slump toward a 2.5-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6455-65. On the contrary, AUDUSD buyers need validation from the downbeat US data/events, as well as the previously stated triangle’s top-line surrounding the 0.6700 threshold, to retake control. In that case, the yearly high marked in May around 0.6715 acts as an extra filter toward the north before fuelling the Aussie prices toward the late 2023 peak of around 0.6870. It should be observed that the 0.6800 round figure and the mid-2023 tops near 0.6900 will also challenge the quote’s advances ahead of highlighting the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Overall, the AUDUSD pair is likely to remain depressed within a short-term triangle formation ahead of the key US data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY grinds within a fortnight-old bullish channelUSDJPY stays mildly bid around 161.00 early Monday as traders await the key US data/events scheduled for release during the week. In doing so, the Yen pair defends the previous three-week uptrend while approaching the highest level since 1986, marked the last week, by being within a fortnight-long bullish trend channel. It’s worth noting, however, that the nearly overbought RSI conditions and the sluggish MACD signals could join the market’s cautious mood and recently firmer Japan data to challenge the buyers around the multi-year high. The latest peak of nearly 161.30 appears an immediate upside hurdle to watch during further advances. Following that, the aforementioned rising trend channel’s top line surrounding 161.60 may test the bulls targeting the late 1986 high of 164.50. Conversely, a convergence of the bullish channel’s bottom line and the year 1990’s high, close to 160.40, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. Even if the Yen pair sellers manage to conquer the 160.40 hurdle, April’s peak of 160.20 and the 160.00 psychological magnet will challenge the sellers before giving them control. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 160.00, the 1.5-month-old resistance-turned-support and the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 159.60 and 158.75, will be the last defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains within a bullish trajectory but the buyers are likely to have a long and bumpy road ahead.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD approaches multi-month-old support ahead of Fed inflationEURUSD struggles to defend the first weekly gain in four as sellers appear more inclined to revisit an upward-sloping support line from early October 2023. That said, the Euro pair’s failure to keep Thursday’s rebound from the stated support line joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core PCE Price Index. However, a daily closing beneath the aforementioned key technical support surrounding 1.0665 becomes necessary for the bears to tighten their grip. Following that, the quote becomes vulnerable to slump toward the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. In a case where the downbeat RSI conditions and the stated 1.0600 support fail to stop the sellers, the prices could well aim for the year 2023 to bottom close to 1.0450. Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath a convergence of the 200 and 100 SMAs, close to 1.0790 by the press time. That said, the 1.0750 and the 1.0800 thresholds are extra upside filters to watch during the quote’s fresh rise in case of the downside US data. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.0800 will enable buyers to aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of late 2023 fall, around 1.0865, but a descending trend line from early January 2024, close to 1.0900, will challenge the upside afterward. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0900, an 11-month-long falling resistance line near 1.0990 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will be tough nuts to crack for the bulls. Overall, EURUSD bears keep the reins ahead of the key US data but the quote’s further downside hinges on the strong US inflation clues and a clear break of the 1.0665 support.
by MTradingGlobal
Oversold RSI, $2,293 key support challenge Gold sellersGold price remains pressured at the lowest level in a fortnight while justifying the previous day’s downside break of a three-week-old rising support line, now immediate resistance. It’s worth noting, however, that the cautious mood ahead of this week’s key US data/events joins the oversold RSI conditions and an upward-sloping support trend line from early April to challenge bears around $2,2932 of late. Among the key data/events, the US Durable Goods Orders, a debate between the US Presidential Candidate Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as the US Core PCE Price Index, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation, will gain major attention. It should be observed that the XAUUSD’s sustained trading beneath the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and bearish MACD signals join the aforementioned trend line break to help the sellers break the $2,293 key support. That said, the monthly low of around $2,286, May’s bottom surrounding $2,277 and early April swing lows around $2,267 are additional downside filters to watch during the bullion’s weakness past $2,293. Following that, the 76.8% Fibonacci ratio of the precious metal’s March-May run-up, near $2,210 will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing prices toward March’s monthly low of near $2,146. Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery needs validation from the catalysts weighing on the US Dollar. Also challenging the XAUUSD bulls is a convergence of the 50-EMA and a three-week-old previous support line, close to $2,324 by the press time. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,324, a descending resistance line from June 07 surrounding $2,364 and the monthly high of near $2,387 will be on the buyer’s radar. Above all, a horizontal area comprising tops marked since April 12, near $2,432-35, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. To sum up, Gold price is likely to stay depressed but the further downside needs support from fundamentals to favour the bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls attack six-week-old on strong Australian InflationAUDUSD jumps nearly 50 pips after Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose the most in six months early Wednesday, up 4.0% MoM versus 3.8% expected and 3.6% prior. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-May, close to 0.6680 by the press time, joins sluggish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to challenge the Aussie pair buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the 0.6680, a 5.5-month-long falling resistance line surrounding the 0.6710 and 0.6730 mark will be the final defenses of the bears before giving control to the bulls targeting the 0.6800 threshold and the late 2023 peak of 0.6870. Conversely, the weekly low of near 0.6625 will challenge the AUDUSD sellers during the pair’s fresh fall. Following that, the 100 and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) might act as tough supports near 0.6590 while the monthly low of around 0.6575 acts as an additional downside filter. Should the quote remain bearish past 0.6575, the previous monthly low of 0.6465 and 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6400, could lure the Aussie pair sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s further upside appears difficult unless providing a daily closing beyond 0.6730.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eases within the bullish channel, sellers await 159 breakUSDJPY defends the previous day’s retreat from a two-month high as traders await Tuesday’s US Confederation Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence figures for June. In doing so, the Yen pair remains mildly offered between the upper line of a seven-week-old rising trend channel and an upward-sloping previous resistance line stretched from early May. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI’s pullback from the overbought territory joins a receding bullish power of the MACD signals to suggest further declines of the quote. The same highlights the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line surrounding 159.00 as a break of which will welcome sellers targeting a two-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 157.90-70. However, the bears should remain cautious unless witnessing a daily closing beneath the 156.30 support confluence comprising the 50-SMA and bottom line of the previously stated bullish trend channel. Following that, the quote’s weakness toward the monthly low of 154.52 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, USDJPY bulls should wait for a clear rejection of the bullish trend channel by providing a daily closing beyond 160.00. Even so, the yearly high of 160.20 and the 1990 peak surrounding 160.40 will join the overbought RSI conditions to challenge the buyers before directing them to the 161.00 round figure. If the Yen pair remains firmer past 161.00, the late 1986 peak of around 163.95 and 164.00 will be on the buyer’s radar. Overall, USDJPY remains in the bullish trajectory despite the likelihood of a short-term pullback in the prices.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold braces for consecutive second weekly gain, focus on $2,390Gold price seesaws at the highest level in a fortnight early Friday, after rising the most in five weeks the previous day. That said, a successful breakout of the 50-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from May 20 backed the precious metal’s run-up on Thursday. Apart from that, upbeat RSI and bullish MACD signals also keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful of witnessing the second consecutive weekly gain. With this, a two-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,390 gains major attention, a break of which will allow bulls to aim for the $2,400 and the $2,410 levels ahead of challenging the record high of around $2,450. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and aforementioned trend line stretched from May, close to $2,344 at the latest, appears the key support to watch during the Gold price decline. Following that, the $2,300 threshold and an 11-week-long rising support line of near $2,293 will be the last defense of the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the monthly of $2,286 and May’s low surrounding $2,277 will act as additional downside filters before giving control to the bears. To sum up, the Gold buyers are well in control but the upside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD fades bounce off key support line as full markets returnEURUSD lacks clear directions early Thursday after rising in the last three consecutive days. In doing so, the Euro pair fades Friday’s rebound from an upward-sloping support line stretched from October as sentiment dwindles amid the return of full markets after the previous day’s Juneteenth holiday in the US. Apart from the struggle to defend the recovery, bearish MACD signals and a downbeat RSI line also challenge the buyers. Apart from that, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding 1.0765 and a convergence of the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near the 1.0800 threshold, stand tall to restrict the quote’s upside moves. In a case where the major currency pair remains firmer past 1.0800, the odds of witnessing a quick run-up toward the monthly high of 1.0916 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, EURUSD sellers aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 run-up, close to 1.0710, as an immediate target ahead of revisiting the aforementioned multi-month-old support trend line surrounding 1.0670. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of around 1.0665 acts as an additional downside filter for the Euro before directing it to the yearly low of 1.0600 marked in April. Additionally, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of 1.0595 acts as the final defense of the buyers ahead of allowing the bears to challenge the late 2023 bottom of near 1.0450. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 1.0800. However, downside room for the pair appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY pokes key resistance amid mixed market, light calendarUSDJPY struggles to defend a two-day winning streak and the weekly gains while jostling with a seven-week-old symmetrical triangle’s resistance line early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair also prints an inability to cross a broad resistance zone comprising tops marked since late April, around 158.00-158.50. However, the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 200-bat Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the upbeat RSI (14) line keep buyers hopeful beyond witnessing a clear downside break of 156.00. Even so, the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line and an upward-sloping trend line support from late March, respectively near 155.60 and 153.40, will act as the final defense of the bulls before giving control to the bears. Meanwhile, fresh buying in the USDJPY pair will gain momentum beyond 158.50, which in turn could direct buyers toward the 160.00 psychological magnet. However, the latest multi-year peak of 160.20 and the year 1990’s high of near 160.40 could poke the Yen pair buyers afterward. If the quote remains firmer past 160.40, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward the late 1986 peak of 164.50 and then to the 1978 low of 177.00 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY remains in a bullish trajectory despite recent inaction.
by MTradingGlobal
Impending “Death Cross” keeps Gold sellers hopefulThe US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish halt failed to impress the US Dollar buyers as softer inflation data raised doubts about the central bank’s one rate cut in 2024 projections. The same allowed the Gold price to refresh weekly high during its three-day uptrend by the end of Wednesday. However, failure to cross the key SMAs and a looming “Death Cross” of the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA joins the unimpressive RSI (14) and an impending bear cross on the MACD to challenge the precious metal buyers afterward. That said, the quote currently drops toward a 10-week-old rising support line, close to $2,288, a break of that will highlight the previous monthly low of $2,277 and the early April swing lows surrounding $2,266 as the seller’s favorite. It’s worth noting, however, that the XAUUSD’s sustained weakness past $2,266 will make it vulnerable to a slump toward the March 21 peak of $2,222. Alternatively, Gold buyers need a clear upside break of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA convergence, close to $2,343-44 by the press time, to retake control. Even so, a three-week-old descending resistance line will test the XAUUSD bulls around $2,371. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,371, the monthly high of near $2,387 and the $2,400 threshold could challenge the upside momentum targeting a two-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,433-34. Overall, Gold teases sellers after the top-tier catalysts but a clear break of $2,288 becomes necessary to expect the metal’s further downside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold. On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD defends week-start recovery as UK employment data loomsGBPUSD stays defensive above 1.2700 as traders await the UK’s monthly employment data early Tuesday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling keeps the previous day’s recovery from a seven-week-old rising support line and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Monday’s rebound also justifies an uptick in the RSI (14) line but fails to gather momentum amid bearish MACD signals. As a result, the Cable pair is likely to mark another attempt to cross a descending resistance line from July 2023, close to the 1.2800 threshold at the latest. However, any further upside appears lacking acceptance, which if takes place could challenge the yearly high marked in March around 1.2895 and the 1.2900 round figure. Should the buyers keep the reins past 1.2900, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and late 2023 peak of 1.3142 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, the 21-day EMA level of 1.2710 and the aforementioned rising support line, close to the 1.2700 mark, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness beneath 1.2700 will direct sellers toward the early May swing high of nearly 1.2635 and then to the 50% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s July-October 2023 fall, near 1.2590. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of around 1.2455 and an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023, near 1.2400, will act as the final defense of the bulls. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to extend the latest recovery ahead of the UK employment data but the upside room appears limited, which in turn suggests the need for strongly positive statistics to defend the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal