GBPUSD bears keep 1.2500 on radar, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD licks its wounds around 1.2600 early Wednesday as traders await the UK inflation clues for January. That said, the Cable pair marked a stellar move the previous day, initially rising to a seven-day high before posting the biggest daily loss in a week while reversing from the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It should be noted that Tuesday’s reversal from 50-EMA also defends the Pound Sterling’s early month break of a 12-week-old rising support line, now resistance around 1.2685. Additionally, the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and multiple levels marked since early December 2023, close to 1.2520-2500, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. In a case where the prices drop below 1.2500, the mid-November 2023 swing low of around 1.2375 will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, the strong UK inflation numbers could allow the GBPUSD pair to have another battle with the 50-EMA and the aforementioned support-turned-resistance, respectively near 1.2635 and 1.2675. If at all the Cable bulls manage to keep the reins past 1.2675, a downward-sloping resistance line from January 12, close to 1.2770 by the press time, will be the final defense of the pair sellers. Following that, the late 2023 peak of near 1.2830 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will lure the Pound Sterling buyers.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish unless staying below 1.2675, especially when the US inflation data appears more lucrative to the Fed hawks. Even so, the Bank of England (BoE) officials have been optimistic of late and hence today’s UK inflation clues will be closely observed for clear directions.
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Gold teases sellers above $2,000 as US inflation loomsGold price stays pressured for the fifth consecutive day, licking its wounds around $2,018 early Tuesday, as traders brace for the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, scheduled for release later in the day. In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the previous day’s downside break of a two-month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance surrounding $2,021. Also keeping the bullion sellers hopeful is the impending bear cross on the MACD. It’s worth noting, however, that the pre-data anxiety joins the nearly oversold RSI to challenge the precious metal bears. That said, January’s low of around $2,000 appears immediate support to watch for the metal sellers during the further downside. However, a downward-sloping trend line from December 15, 2023, forming part of a broad bearish channel, will challenge the bears near $1,990 afterward.
On the flip side, a surprise recovery of the Gold Price needs to stay beyond the support-turned-resistance line of nearly $2,021 to convince the intraday buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA surrounding $2,037 could test the XAUUSD bulls before giving them control. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past the key SMA hurdle, the top line of an aforementioned channel, close to $2,058 at the latest, will precede a six-week-old horizontal resistance of $2,066 to gain the market’s attention.
Overall, the Gold Price is likely to extend the latest fall but the downside room appears limited. Also, the US inflation numbers need to defend the Fed’s efforts to push back the rate cut bias to keep the XAUUSD bears hopeful.
NZDUSD bulls can ignore recent pullbackNZDUSD drops the most among the G10 currency pairs while reversing the previous weekly gains, the first in four, as market players show a lack of conviction in the hawkish speech from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr. It’s worth noting that a long holiday season in China also allowed the Kiwi pair traders to consolidate the previous week’s upside ahead of the US inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday. However, Friday’s falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14) line, favor the quote’s gradual rise unless it slips back beneath the 0.6100 resistance-turned-support. Even so, the 100-SMA and the stated bullish chart pattern’s lower line, respectively near 0.6075 and 0.6030, quickly followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, will challenge the pair sellers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, fresh buying in the NZDUSD pair can wait for a clear upside break of a five-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6175-80. Following that, the mid-January swing high of around 0.6280 and the late 2023 peak of near 0.6370 will lure the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6370, the theoretical target of the falling wedge breakout, namely around 0.6450, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, the NZDUSD pair’s latest retreat becomes less attractive unless backed by the downbeat US inflation data, as well as a sustained trading beneath 0.6100.
GBPUSD struggles with support-turned-resistanceGBPUSD snapped a two-day winning streak on Thursday while retreating from a previous support line stretched from November 22. It’s worth noting, however, that late Thursday’s corrective bounce in the Cable pair renewed bullish bias about the quote, especially amid the upbeat RSI conditions. With this, the support-turned-resistance line surrounding 1.2650 challenges the Pound Sterling buyers. Apart from that, a convergence of the 100 and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.2660 by the press time, also acts as a tough nut to crack for the bulls. In a case where the prices remain firmer past 1.2660, a quick run-up toward a one-month-old resistance line, close to 1.2770 at the latest, can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD pair sellers need validation from the previous day’s low of near 1.2570 to take fresh positions. Even so, a two-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 1.2520–2500 will challenge the quote’s downside momentum. Following that, the mid-November 2023 swing low of around 1.2370 will act as the final defense of the Cable buyers before giving control to the bears.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair buyers flex muscles ahead of the key week comprising a slew of UK and US data.
Gold again retreats from 200-SMA but bears need validationGold price fades bounce off a two-month-old rising support line, failing to cheer the US Dollar’s weakness, as the 200-SMA hurdle again challenges the metal buyers ahead of the second-tier employment clues from the US. Not only the 200-SMA resistance surrounding $2,040 and the pre-data anxiety, steady RSI and sluggish MACD signals also challenge the XAUUSD buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the $2,040 upside hurdle, a five-week-long horizontal resistance zone of around $2,065 will be a tough nut to crack for the bullion buyers before retaking control. Following that, a run-up toward the late December 2023 peak of near $2,088 will be quick to witness on the chart.
Meanwhile, an ascending support line from early December, close to $2,020 by the press time restricts the short-term downside of the Gold price. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $2,020, the mid-January swing low of near the $2,000 threshold will return to the charts. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past $2,000 makes it vulnerable to slump toward the two-month low of nearly $1,973 before challenging the November 2023 trough surrounding $1,930.
Overall, Gold Price remains pressured on a short-term basis but the sellers need validation from technical and fundamental perspectives.
USDJPY portrays bullish consolidation, further downside expectedOn Tuesday, the USDJPY pair snapped a two-day winning streak while reversing from a 13-day-old horizontal resistance surrounding 148.80-90. The pullback move also justifies the upbeat RSI and bearish MACD signals. With this, the Yen pair is likely to decline further toward the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of nearly 146.60. However, the 100-EMA of 146.20 and the monthly low of 145.90 will challenge the sellers afterward, suggesting another U-turn in the price. In doing so, the quote manages a fortnight-long trading range that consolidates the pair’s gains marked since late December.
Meanwhile, USDJPY buyers remain off the table unless they witness a daily closing beyond the aforementioned horizontal resistance of around 148.80-90. Even so, the late November 2023 swing high of around 149.80 and the 150.00 threshold will test the Yen pair’s upside moves. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 150.00, the odds of witnessing the quote’s run-up toward the previous yearly high of around 151.90 can’t be ignored.
Overall, USDJPY remains in the bullish consolidation mode and hence likely witnessing further downside. However, the yields and the US Dollar moves are telling a different story and may test the sellers, which in turn requires caution on the part of the pair traders.
AUDUSD bears can ignore post-RBA rebound from 11-week lowAUDUSD prints the first daily gain in three while bouncing off the lowest level since mid-November after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the benchmark rates unchanged. The corrective bounce also justified the RSI (14) line’s rebound from the oversold territory. However, the bearish MACD signals and the previous week’s confirmation of the Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) bearish chart pattern keeps the Aussie pair sellers unless the quote jumps back beyond a convergence of the neckline and the 100-SMA, around 0.6525-30 by the press time. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading beyond 0.6530 isn’t an open invitation to the Aussie pair buyers as multiple tops marked during late January and early February near 0.6620 and the 50-SMA hurdle of 0.6650 will act as the final defense of the sellers.
Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh downside needs validation from the latest multi-day bottom surrounding 0.6470 and the mid-November swing low of around 0.6450. Following that, the odds of witnessing the Aussie pair’s quick fall toward the November 10 swing low of 0.6338 and then to the theoretical target of the H&S, namely the 0.6190 can’t be ruled out. That said, the previous yearly low marked in October around 0.6270 may act as an intermediate halt during the fall between 0.6338 and 0.6190.
To sum up, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains off the table despite the pair’s latest gains.
EURUSD slides beneath key support as Fed’s Powell defends hawksEURUSD dropped to the lowest level in two months after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell firmly pushed back the March rate cut. The same allowed the Euro pair to keep the previous day’s downside break of a 1.0810 support confluence comprising the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a four-month-old rising trend line. Additionally keeping the sellers hopeful are the bearish MACD signals. However, the below 50.0 level of the RSI (14) line raises doubts about the downside momentum and hence the bears need validation from December’s low of around 1.0720 to tighten the grips. Following that, October’s high of 1.0695 and early November swing low surrounding 1.0655 will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, the EURUSD rebound needs acceptance from the support-turned-resistance confluence of around 1.0810 and the US ISM Services PMI. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0875 at the latest, quickly followed by the 1.0900 threshold, will act as the final defense of the Euro sellers before giving control to the bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s successful trading above 1.0900 enables the buyers to aim for the 1.1000 psychological magnet and November’s peak near 1.1020.
Overall, EURUSD teases bears on hawkish Fed concerns but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
Gold buyers attack key resistance line on NFP dayGold price rose in the last four consecutive days while defending the early-week breakout of the 21-SMA and the 50-SMA. In doing so, the XAUUSD also jumped to the highest level in a month. However, the bullion failed to provide a daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line, around $2,055-56 by the press time. It’s worth noting, though, that successful trading beyond the key SMAs joins the upbeat RSI and MACD conditions to keep the metal buyers hopeful of crossing the stated upside hurdle. On the same line are the expectations of witnessing a downbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) number, which in turn can further weaken the US Dollar and fuel the precious metal.
That said, a daily closing beyond $2,056 becomes necessary for the Gold buyers to aim for the late December swing high surrounding $2,088. Following that, the $2,100 threshold will act as the final defense of the XAUUSD sellers ahead of directing the prices toward the record high marked in late 2023 around $2,150.
Meanwhile, surprisingly strong US employment data and a run-up by the US Dollar, as well as the Treasury bond yields, can drag the Gold price back to the stated SMA confluence, around $2,032-30 by the press time. In a case where the quote prints a daily closing beneath $2,030, the previous monthly low of around $2,000 and December’s bottom of $1,973 will lure the XAUUSD bears.
Overall, Gold buyers are likely to keep the reins unless today’s US employment data bolsters the US Dollar.
GBPUSD keeps Fed-inflicted bearish consolidation ahead of BoEGBPUSD remains pressured within a six-week-old descending triangle as market players await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcements. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish halt, as well as expectations suggesting the BoE’s rate cut in 2024. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-SMA level of 1.2670 and an ascending support line from late November, close to 1.2650 at the latest, offer intermediate supports to the Cable pair within the aforementioned triangle, currently between 1.2600 and 1.2750. Apart from the triangle in play, the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2560 acts as an extra filter toward the south.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the stated triangle’s top line, near 1.2750 by the press time, will quickly propel the Pound Sterling toward the previous monthly high of around 1.2830. Following that, the late July peak of 1.3000 will act as the final defense of the GBPUSD bears, a break that won’t hesitate to fuel the prices toward the year 2023 high of near 1.3145.
Overall, the BoE is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged but the tone of the British central bank isn’t expected to maintain the optimism like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which in turn will weigh on the GBPUSD pair unless witnessing a surprise.
EURUSD tests falling wedge ahead of Eurozone GDPEURUSD stays pressured within a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation as the pair traders await the first readings of German and the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2024 early Tuesday. In doing so, the quote fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off the stated pattern’s bottom line while portraying a third consecutive weekly loss so far. It’s worth noting, however, that the recently downbeat RSI and MACD signals suggest weakness in the bearish trend and hence a quick run-up on the upbeat prints of GDP can’t be ruled out. In that case, the previous support line stretched from early November, now resistance around 1.0880, will restrict the immediate upside of the Euro pair. Following that, the falling wedge’s top line surrounding 1.0900 and the 200-SMA level of 1.0935 will be crucial to watch as the final battle points for the bears before giving control to the buyers.
Alternatively, the aforementioned wedge’s lower line of around 1.0800 puts a floor under the EURUSD price. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near 1.0760, will precede the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.0650 to act as the last defense of the pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0650, the pair’s lows marked in November and October, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0450, will lure the sellers.
To sum up, EURUSD portrays a bullish chart formation ahead of the bloc’s key growth data.
USDJPY lures bears as FOMC, NFP week beginsUSDJPY makes rounds to 148.00 early Monday as the key week comprising the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting and the US employment report begins. That said, the Yen pain snapped a three-week uptrend in the last while fading the bounce within a three-week-old triangle. While the hawkish hopes from the Fed and likely firmer prints of the US job numbers seem to tease the US Dollar bulls, hopes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from ultra-easy policy and positioning for the US data/events lure sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned triangle’s bottom line, respectively near 147.50 and 147.35, could test the bears before welcoming them. Even so, the 200-EMA level of around 146.10, quickly followed by the 146.00 round figure, will act as the final defense of the buyers.
Meanwhile, a one-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 148.50 guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair. Following that, the previously stated triangle’s top line, near 149.30 by the press time, will be important to watch for the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Yen pair buyers keep the reins past 149.30, the 150.00 threshold and November’s peak of around 151.90 are likely to gain the market’s attention.
Overall, the USDJPY pair buyers lack momentum as the top-tier US data/events loom.
Gold bounces off key support line ahead of Fed InflationGold price stays defensive near $2,022 as bulls await the key US data to extend the previous day’s rebound from a six-week-old rising support line. That said, the US Core PCE Price Index, also known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, gains additional importance this time amid reducing market bets on the US central bank’s delayed rate cuts. Should the inflation figures fail to justify the recent hawkish Fed bias, the US Dollar will reverse the gains while allowing the XAUUSD to extend Thursday’s recovery toward the $2,035-36 resistance confluence comprising the 21-SMA and a one-month-old bearish channel’s top line. Following that, $2,063 and $2,090 are likely strong challenges for the metal buyers before targeting the previous yearly top marked in December at around $2,148.
On the flip side, the aforementioned support line stretched from early December, close to $2,010 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of the Gold Price. In a case where the quote drops below $2,010, the previously stated bearish channel’s bottom line surrounding $1,988 will be crucial to watch. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $1,988, a convergence of the 100-SMA and 50% Fibonacci ratio of the metal’s October-December upside, near $1,975, closely followed by the previous monthly low of near $1,973, will be the final defenses of the buyers before giving control to the bullion bears.
Overall, the steady RSI and the metal’s recovery despite the US Dollar lure buyers ahead of important US inflation data for December.
EURUSD fades bounce off 11-week-old support on ECB dayWith the US Dollar’s failure to cheer upbeat PMI details, the EURUSD pair managed to rebound from an upward-sloping support line from early November, especially when the activity data from Germany and the Eurozone came in positive. The recovery moves, however, failed to cross the 50-SMA hurdle on a daily closing basis and tease sellers ahead of the all-important monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). While the bloc’s central bank is likely to keep the monetary policy unchanged, the focus will be on the signals for future rate cuts as market players expect the first rate cut before June but the policymakers appeared hesitant for the same of late.
That said, any hawkish clues will allow the Euro pair to cross the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 1.0920. However, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from November 01, close to 1.0985 at the latest, will precede the 1.1000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair buyers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, the downbeat RSI conditions and the limited odds of favoring the ECB hawks suggest further weakening of the pair. The same highlights the aforementioned nine-week-old ascending trend line support line, near 1.0830 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of 1.0820 and the previous monthly low of around 1.0720 will act as additional downside filters before a smooth sailing toward the late October swing high of near 1.0700.
“Double Doji” lures big-time NZDUSD bulls as key week beginsNZDUSD edges higher past 0.6100 while defending the rebound from 200-SMA during early hours of the key week comprising New Zealand (NZ) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US PMIs for January. In doing so, the Kiwi pair also justifies the “Double Doji” bullish candlestick formation to consolidate the biggest weekly loss in six months. Additionally favoring the bullish bias is the RSI (14) line’s rebound from nearly oversold conditions and receding bearish bias of the MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that a daily closing beyond 0.6140 becomes necessary to confirm the bullish candlestick pattern. In that case, a convergence of a three-week-old falling resistance line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6230, will gain the market’s attention ahead of the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6370.
On the flip side, the 200-SMA level of 0.6090 restricts immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios could test the Kiwi pair bears around 0.6070 and 0.6000 respectively. If at all the NZ inflation fails to inspire the pair buyers and/or the US data came in too strong and pushes back the dovish Fed concerns, the sellers won’t hesitate to target the mid-November 2023 bottom of near 0.5860 before aiming for the previous yearly low of around 0.5770.
Overall, NZDUSD pair’s recovery appears overdue but the fundamentals need to back the upside and hence bulls should remain cautious.
Gold price recovery lacks momentum within bearish channelGold price lacks clear directions after bouncing off the lowest level in five weeks, as well as snapped a two-day losing streak, the previous day. That said, the previous support line stretched from early November guards the immediate upside of the XAUUSD around $2,022. As the RSI (14) line’s recovery joins the impending bulls cross on the MACD to back the precious metal’s rebound, the quote is likely to surpass the nearby hurdle surrounding $2,022. However, the 200-SMA and the top line of a three-week-old bearish channel, respectively near $2,037 and $2,051, will challenge the bullion buyers afterward. In a case where the prices remain firmer past $2,051, the odds of witnessing a quick rally toward the $2,090 horizontal resistance region can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the metal’s November-December upside, near $2,015, restricts nearby declines in the Gold price. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s bottom line, close to the $2,000 psychological magnet, will precede the previous monthly low of around $1,973 to act as the final defense of the buyers. Should the XAUUSD remain bearish past $1,973, the downside momentum will aim for November’s bottom surrounding $1,930.
Overall, the XAUUSD remains bearish unless it manages to defy the descending trend channel formation backed by the downbeat US Dollar.
EURUSD rebound needs validation from 1.0940 to convince bullsEURUSD extends recovery from a five-week low while defending the previous day’s bounce off a one-month-old falling wedge’s bottom line. The Euro pair’s recovery also traces the RSI (14) line, as well as justifies the impending bull cross on the MACD indicator, which in turn suggests further advances of the major currency pair. However, the 200-SMA hurdle surrounding 1.0920 guards the immediate upside of the quote. Following that, an ascending resistance line stretched from early November, previous support near 1.0940, will join the top line of an aforementioned bullish chart pattern, namely the falling wedge, to challenge the buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.0940, the 1.1010-15 region and the previous monthly high of near 1.1140 could act as intermediate halts during the run-up towards the theoretical target of the falling wedge, close to 1.1240
On the flip side, EURUSD sellers remain off the table unless they witness a clear rejection of the falling wedge chart pattern, via a downside break of the stated formation’s bottom line surrounding 1.0840. In that case, the early November swing high and the previous monthly low, respectively near 1.0755 and 1.0720, will lure the Euro bears. It should be noted that the quote’ sustained weakness past 1.0720 will make it vulnerable to slump toward October 2023 bottom near 1.0450.
To sum up, EURUSD pares recent losses but the bulls are far from taking control.
GBPUSD bears approach key supports as UK, US data loomGBPUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in eight days after breaking a five-week-long trend line support the previous day. Apart from the support break, bearish MACD signals and an absence of oversold RSI also keep the Cable sellers hopeful. With this, the quote’s further downside toward the 1.2600 support confluence, comprising a 50% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downside and 50-SMA, appears imminent. However, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2545 appears a tough nut to crack for the Pound Sterling sellers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to slump toward the 1.2330-20 support zone comprising multiple levels marked since late May 2023.
Alternatively, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from the aforementioned previous support line, close to 1.2665 at the latest, to convince the short-term buyers. Following that, a 5.5-month-old horizontal resistance area near 1.2790, quickly followed by the 1.2800 threshold, will test the quote’s further upside. In a case where the Cable buyers manage to keep the reins past 1.2800, the 11-week-long support-turned-resistance near 1.2890 and the 1.2900 round figure will be the last defense of the Pound Sterling sellers.
Apart from the bearish technical signals, the comparative economic pessimism surrounding the UK and recent hawkish bias about the Federal Reserve (Fed) also keeps the GBPUSD sellers hopeful as the UK inflation and the US Retail Sales loom.
EURUSD bulls remain unconvinced despite recent reboundEURUSD remains mildly bid within a 10-week-old bullish channel as market players seek more clues to justify the previous day’s strong US inflation report, as well as comforting comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. That said, the 21-SMA and Thursday’s Doji prods the Euro bulls amid bearish MACD signals. Even if the pair buyers manage to cross the 1.0985 immediate SMA hurdle, November’s peak of around 1.1020 and the previous monthly high surrounding 1.1140 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 1.1220 at the latest, will act as a tough nut to crack for the buyers.
Alternatively, the EURUSD pullback needs to defy the bullish channel formation by slipping beneath the 1.0910 support to convince sellers. Even so, the 200-SMA support of 1.0845 can challenge the Euro bears before giving them control. In that case, December’s bottom of 1.0723 and October’s peak of near 1.0700 will be the final defenses of the buyers ahead of directing prices toward the yearly low marked in October around 1.0450.
Overall, EURUSD manages to consolidate the previous weekly loss and defends the bullish chart formation but the recovery appears fishy and hence needs confirmation from 21-SMA.
Gold sellers need validation from $2,017 and US CPIGold price remains on the back foot for the second consecutive week, so far, as traders await the key US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for December. That said, the precious metal’s sustained trading beneath crucial Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and mostly steady RSI (14) line keeps the XAUUSD sellers hopeful. However, an upward-sloping trend line from early November, close to $2,017 by the press time, restricts the downside of the bullion. Should the quote manage to break the stated key support line, backed by upbeat US inflation numbers, the sellers can quickly aim for the previous monthly low of around $1,973. However, the $2,000 threshold may act as an intermediate halt.
On the contrary, the Gold buyers need to portray a successful break beyond the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA convergence, near $2,040, to reclaim the market’s confidence. Even so, the downbeat US CPI and a sustained run-up beyond a five-week-old falling resistance line, close to $2,055 as we write, become necessary for the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, the previous monthly high of around $2,090 will be the last defense of the sellers before directing the quote toward the record high marked in 2023 surrounding $2,048.
Overall, the Gold sellers are flexing muscles but the metal’s downside move hinges on a $2,017 break and the US CPI.
AUDUSD lures bears amid softer Aussie inflation, 0.6670 eyedAUDUSD struggles to defend the bounce from a two-month-old rising support line and the 200-SMA amid softer Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also attracting offers for the Aussie pair is the risk-off mood and an impending death cross on the four-hour chart, a bearish moving average crossover between the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD suggest a slower grind to the south. That said, the aforementioned trend line stretched from early November and the 200-SMA, around 0.6685-75 at the latest, appears crucial for the pair sellers, a clear break of which will help bears to aim for early December peaks surrounding 0.6620. Following that, an eight-week-old horizontal support area near 0.6540-45 will be the last defense of the buyers.
Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, close to 0.6750-60 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Should the quote remain firmer past 0.6760, the previous monthly high of around 0.6870 and the mid-2023 peaks near 0.6900 could test the Aussie pair buyers ahead of the 0.7000 psychological magnet and last year’s top of 0.7157.
Overall, the AUDUSD buyers appear running out of steam but the bears need validation from 0.6670 to enter the ring.
USDJPY extends pullback from key EMA confluence below 144.00USDJPY drops half a percent to 143.55 during the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair extends Friday’s retreats from a convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-EMA. Adding strength to the downside pressure is the Doji candlestick on the top and the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line, not to forget the sluggish MACD. With this, the sellers appear set to approach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-November upside, near 142.90. Following that, the previous monthly low and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 140.40 and the 140.00 threshold will challenge the bears before directing them to the mid-2023 bottom surrounding 137.35.
On the flip side, the aforementioned EMA convergence stops the USDJPY buyers’ entry near 145.50-60. Also acting as a short-term upside filter is the stated Doji candlestick’s peak of around 146.00. In a case where the Yen pair manages to stay firmer past 146.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of near 148.40 will act as the final defense of the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct buyers toward the previous yearly peak of 151.90.
Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to extend the latest downside, at least until Wednesday’s US inflation data comes out.
GBPUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA after three-week uptrendGBPUSD prints mild losses around 1.2700 early Monday, after snapping a three-week uptrend in the last. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the previous week’s downside break of a two-month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance around 1.2765, as well as fades the bounce off a 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2635. However, the upbeat conditions of the RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals keep the buyers hopeful unless the quote slips beneath the stated key SMA, a break of which could quickly drag the quote toward December’s low of 1.2500. It should be noted that the Pound Sterling’s weakness past 1.2500 will have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of near 1.2375 as the last defense of the buyers.
On the flip side, the GBPUSD pair buyers can regain control by crossing the support-turned-resistance line of around 1.2765. Following that, the recent peak surrounding 1.2830 and an ascending trend line from late November, close to 1.2860 at the latest, could check the Pound Sterling’s upside momentum ahead of directing the bulls toward the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Should the quote remain firmer past the 1.3000 threshold, the previous yearly high of nearly 1.3145 will be in the spotlight.
To sum up, the GBPUSD pair buyers are likely losing control the sellers need validation from the 200-SMA breakdown to retake control.