Get started

Fed

EURUSD gyrates within bullish pennantEURUSD seesaws within a week-long bullish pennant formation, bracing for the second weekly gain, as markets await this week’s key US data. Not only the bullish pennant but the bullish crossover of the 50-SMA to the 100-SMA also keeps the Euro buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD fail to inspire the pair bulls. As a result, a fresh long position can wait until the quote confirms the bullish chart pattern by crossing the 1.0980 immediate hurdle. To make matters more clear, in case of big positions, the buyers should seek the pair’s successful trading beyond the 1.1010-20 resistance area. Following that, a run-up toward 1.1100 will be imminent before highlighting the yearly peak of 1.1275 for the bulls. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s downside break of 1.0920 support will defy the bullish pennant and can drag the prices toward the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.0880 and 1.0870. However, an upward-sloping support line from early November, close to 1.0800 by the press time, will be a crucial support to watch for defending the bulls, a break of which will give control to the bears targeting the monthly low of 1.0723 and early November bottom surrounding 1.0650. Overall, the EURUSD remains on the buyer’s radar despite the recent inaction.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls struggle to keep reins as UK inflation loomGBPUSD retreats toward 1.2700 ahead of the UK inflation release on Wednesday, after snapping a two-day losing streak the previous day. Even so, a two-month-old rising trend channel joins the upbeat RSI (14) line, not overbought, to keep the Cable buyers hopeful unless the quote stays beyond 1.2620. Even if the pair defies the bullish chart formation by sliding beneath the 1.2620 support, the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2510 will act as the last defense of the bull before directing prices toward the early October swing high of around 1.2335. Meanwhile, an upward sloping resistance line stretched from early September, close to 1.2785 by the press time, guards immediate run-up of the GBPUSD pair. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s March-July upside and the aforementioned channel’s upper line, respectively near 1.2830 and 1.2920, will test the Pound Sterling buyers. In a case where the quote stays firmer past 1.2920, the late July peak of around 1.3000 and the yearly peak of 1.3142 will lure the bulls. Overall, the GBPUSD bulls are in the driver’s seat as markets await the UK inflation and the US CB Consumer Confidence.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls prod 200-EMA resistance after BoJ status quoUSDJPY prints a three-day uptrend while extending the previous week’s recovery from the lowest level since late July after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) defends the current monetary policy. In doing so, the Japanese central bank rules out concerns surrounding its gradual exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy amid a recent increase in inflation. With this, the Yen pair pokes the 200-EMA hurdle, extending recovery from a five-month-old horizontal support. The rebound also justifies the RSI (14) line’s U-turn from the oversold territory, which in turn suggests the quote’s further run-up beyond the key EMA surrounding 143.80. However, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-November, close to 145.30 by the press time, will challenge further advances. In a case where the buyers keep reins past 145.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the monthly high near 148.35 and then toward the 150.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, growing chatters about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts in early 2024 could join the downbeat yields to weigh on the USDJPY pair, which in turn highlights the aforementioned horizontal support region of around 141.50-142.00. Should the Yen pair sellers manage to break the 141.50 support, it can quickly drop to the 140.00 psychological magnet before highlighting July’s low of 137.23 as the key support. Following that, the pair’s bearish trajectory towards the yearly bottom of 127.20 appears a favorite for the bears. Overall, USDJPY regains upside momentum but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays bullish beyond 0.6650 resistance-turned-supportAUDUSD edges higher past 0.6700 after posting the biggest weekly gains since the mid-November. In doing so, the Aussie pair defends Wednesday’s upside break of descending trend line stretched from early February, now immediate support near 0.6650. The resistance break joins upbeat RSI (14) to keep the buyers hopeful. However, the MACD signals appear less bullish and RSI line also nears the overbought conditions. The same suggests limited upside room for the buyers to cheer, which in turn highlights May’s high of around 0.6820 as an immediate upside hurdle to trace. Following that, a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6900-6920 will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the previous resistance line near 0.6650, now immediate support, could quickly drag the AUDUSD prices to the 200-SMA support surrounding 0.6575. It’s worth noting, however, that tops marked in late August and early September, as well as comprising December’s bottom, will challenge the Aussie pair’s downside past 0.6575 near 0.6525-20. Additionally, a seven-week-old rising support line near 0.6480-75 will act as the final defense for the buyers before giving control to the bears. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to revisit the mid-2023 peaks during the year-end trading. The pullback moves, which are less likely, remain unimportant beyond 0.6475.
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA prods USDJPY’s bounce off 4.5-month lowUSDJPY prints mild gains around 142.00 to snap a three-day losing streak at the lowest level since late July. In doing so, the Yen pair portrays a corrective bounce amid oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the bearish MACD signals and the 200-SMA hurdle, at 142.50 by the press time, challenge the quote’s recovery. Even if the pair manages to cross the 142.50 hurdle, a 5.5-month-long horizontal resistance line and a falling trend line from mid-November will test the buyers around 144.00 and 145.85 in that order. It’s worth noting that the previous support line stretched from March 24, surrounding 147.60, acts as the final defense of the Yen pair sellers. Meanwhile, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-November upside, near 140.85, acts as an immediate downside support for the USDJPY pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of around 138.20 to prod the Yen pair sellers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 138.20, July’s bottom of 137.23 appears the final battleground for the bulls before surrendering their weapons to the sellers. Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to remain bearish even if the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
14th Dec ’23 - BankNifty breaksout again and hits ATH Bull-RUNBankNifty Analysis If you read the postmortem report yesterday, you might have seen how the W pattern formed yesterday and BankNifty respecting the ascending trend line turned out. BankNifty had a different start today vs Nifty because we opened 0.95% gap-up and then rallied another 0.8% to hit the all time highs. 4mts chart - click here The 2nd rally was equally intense as the first. And once we hit the ATH - BN turned flat and had a sideways trend till close. Remember we discussed how gap-up and gap-downs are the major weapon used by the big-boys to scare the s**t out of the option sellers? US markets rarely does the gap-ups or gap-downs, I mean the index. Whereas the majority of the gains/loss in our markets are done via gaps. FED’s rate cuts promise in 2024 looks like more of a political play than an economic one. A rallying market and portfolios in green sounds pretty good for the incumbent leaders. Imagine trying to get re-elected when there is economic depression/recession? 63mts chart link - click here The stance on BankNifty has been revised to bullish. I have no targets in mind as we are at the ATH. The first support to look at will be 47588. Meanwhile, the charts look perfectly like in the textbook.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - Markets break out yet again! Nifty50 ATH 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.” 4mts chart link - click here. Guess what happened today? The CE short-sellers ran for cover as the pre-open indicated a mega gap up. Rightly so, we opened 182pts higher after FED announced plans to cut rates thrice in 2024. US markets were overjoyed and its spillover effects fell on Indian markets as well. Since the opening was above my target of 21037, I had to choose the bullish direction. You wont believe how hard NiftyIT rallied today, +3.5%. The main reason we had a retracement over the last 2 to 3 sessions was NiftyIT. And its reversal helped Nifty50 hit a new ATH of 21210.9 today. 63mts chart of NiftyIT - click here See the chart of NiftyIT. Between 12th and 13th December we fell 3.25% ~ 1098pts. And from those lows, it rallied 4.89% ~ 1599pts including today’s gains of 1156pts. Not just IT, almost all the sectors were in green today except for maybe NiftyMedia. 63mts chart - click here Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel's upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
EURUSD bulls approach 1.0970 hurdle ahead of ECBEURUSD prints a four-day winning streak while refreshing the monthly high around 1.0915 as traders await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements on early Thursday. The Euro pair’s latest recovery takes clues from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish halt, as well as the upbeat RSI and MACD signals. Adding strength to the upside bias is the quote’s successful trading beyond the 100-SMA. With this, the major currency pair is likely to extend the previous week’s recovery toward the 1.0970 resistance confluence comprising a downward-sloping resistance line from July and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-October fall. Apart from the 1.0970, the 1.1000 psychological magnet and the previous monthly high of around 1.1020 also act as additional upside filters, a break of which will allow the bulls to challenge the yearly peak of 1.1275 marked in July. On the flip side, the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci ratios, surrounding 1.0865 and 1.0760 respectively, restrict the immediate downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA will challenge the Euro bears near 1.0750 and 1.0730 in that order. It’s worth noting, however, that a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since late May, close to 1.0670, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers to break afterward. Overall, the EURUSD pair appears all set to poke the 1.0970 hurdle but the quote’s further upside hinges on the ECB’s hawkish move, which is less likely to happen.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers keep eyes on $1,960 and Fed announcementsGold price remains pressured at a three-week low, after declining in the last three consecutive days, despite a nail-biting wait for today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, especially after the previous day’s US inflation numbers. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from Friday’s downside break of horizontal support, now resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals, to poke the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support surrounding $1,980. That said, a downward-sloping RSI (14) line, not oversold, joins the aforementioned bearish indicators to keep the XAUUSD sellers hopeful of breaking the nearby EMA support. However, a convergence of the 100-EMA and an upward-sloping support line from mid-October, close to $1,960-58, appears a tough nut to crack for the bullion sellers. Following that, the previous monthly low of around $1,933 could test the bears before directing them toward the $1,900 round figure. Alternatively, Gold price recovery needs validation from the aforementioned support-turned-resistance of near $2,010, as well as the Fed’s hawkish halt. Even so, the $2,030 and $2,080 levels will act as additional upside filters to challenge the XAUSD bulls before giving them control. Should the quote remain firmer past $2,080, the odds of witnessing a fresh yearly high past $2,100 psychological magnet can’t be ignored. Overall, gold price is likely to remain pressured but the downside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls flex muscles ahead of UK employment, US inflationGBPUSD picks up bids to extend the previous day’s rebound from a six-week-old rising support line as traders prepare for the UK jobs report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on early Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable pair also justifies a recovery in the RSI (14) line. However, a fortnight-old descending trend channel joins the sluggish MACD signals to challenge buyers. Should the quote manage to cross the 1.2580 immediate hurdle, its run-up toward a downward-sloping resistance line from late November, near 1.2690, will be imminent. Following that, the previous monthly high of near 1.2735 and a seven-week-long rising resistance line, close to 1.2870, will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line, around 1.2540 by the press time, isn’t an open invitation to the GBPUSD sellers as the bottom line of the previously stated channel and the 200-SMA, respectively near 1.2470 and 1.2420, will challenge the fall. Also acting as the downside filter is the mid-November swing low surrounding 1.2370, a break of which will make the Pound Sterling vulnerable to dropping toward the November 10 trough near 1.2185. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to reverse the previous week’s losses unless the UK/US data recall the pair sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears have bumpy road ahead, 0.6460 is crucialAUDUSD remains pressured on early Monday, after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of Friday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk-barometer status as traders await this week’s key data/events comprising the US inflation, multiple PMIs and top-tier central bank meetings. In addition to the market’s anxiety, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping RSI (14) line also favors the Aussie pair sellers in targeting a four-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.6520-15. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6515 appears difficult unless the bears manage to conquer the 0.6460 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a six-week-old rising support line. Following that, the pair becomes vulnerable to decline towards an area near 0.6360 that includes multiple levels marked since the mid-August. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery needs validation from the 0.6600 and the scheduled catalysts to convince buyers. Even so, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s June-October downside, close to 0.6660, will precede the monthly high of 0.6690 and the 0.6700 to test the Aussie bulls before giving them control. In a case where the quote remain firmer past 0.6700, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6770 and June’s peak near 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain pressured during the key week but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold pares the first weekly loss in four on US NFP DayGold price prints mild gains around $2,030 during a three-day winning streak as traders await the US employment report for November, mainly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) numbers. Even so, the yellow metal portrays the first weekly loss in four while struggling to defend the bounce off 100-EMA and an ascending support line stretched from early October, around $2,020-15 by the press time. That said, the gradually improving RSI (14) line and the sluggish MACD hint at the XAUUSD’s slower grind toward the north. However, a slew of resistances stand tall to challenge the bulls between $2,035 and $2,055. Following that, $2,090 will act as the last defense of the bears before directing the quote toward the all-time high marked on Monday surrounding $2,150. In a case where the US jobs report offers a positive surprise to the US Treasury bond yields and drags the Gold price below the $2,020-15 support area, October’s peak of around $2,010 and the $2,000 psychological magnet will test the sellers. It’s worth noting, however, that the commodity’s sustained trading below the $2,000 threshold, opens the door for a gradual south-run targeting the previous monthly low of around $1,930, as well as the mid-October swing low of near $1,910. If at all the XAUUSD bears keep reins past $1,910, and also break the $1,900 round figure, the precious metal defies the present bullish trend and becomes vulnerable to testing October’s low near $1,810. Overall, the Gold price is likely to edge higher but may end the week on a negative note ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, unless today’s US employment data surprises the markets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY sellers attack 147.00 to justify corrective pullbackUSDJPY struggles to defend the three-week losing streak as the bottom line of a bullish trend channel, stretched from late March, joins the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to restrict the quote’s immediate downside near the 147.00 threshold. Even if the quote breaks the 147.00 support, a convergence of the five-month-old previous resistance and the 200-day EMA, around 143.80 by the press time, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. Following that, the Yen pair’s fall toward the August monthly low near 141.50 and then to the 140.00 round figure, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the receding bearish power of the MACD and the nearly oversold RSI (14) line join the 147.00 support to challenge the USDJPY bears. That said, the pair’s recovery, however, needs validation from the 50-EMA level of around 148.60. Should the quote manage to remain firmer, the 150.00 psychological magnet will precede the previous monthly high of 151.90 to act as the final test for the pair buyers. It’s worth noting that the Yen pair’s successful trading above 151.90 enables the bulls to aim for the top-line of the previously-stated channel’s top line, surrounding 154.00. Overall, the USDJPY pair portrays bearish consolidation and may witness a bounce in prices unless the quote stays beyond the 147.00 key support.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD retreats from 1.3600 resistance ahead of BoC announcementUSDCAD takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.3570 while snapping a two-day uptrend ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision. In doing so, the Loonie pair reverses from a convergence of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a month-old descending trend line, around 1.3600 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the BoC is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged but the latest rebound in the Crude Oil price, Canada’s key export, could join the hawkish commentary from the central bank, if any, to drag the quote further toward the 200-EMA. The expectations of a pullback in prices also take clues from bearish MACD signals and sluggish RSI. That said, the quote’s weakness past the 200-EMA level of 1.3518 appears difficult as the bottom line of a five-week-old bearish channel, forming part of a broader “bull flag” formation, could challenge the bears around 1.3470. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond the 1.3600 resistance confluence will enable the USDCAD buyers to aim for the bull flag confirmation by crossing the 1.3685 upside hurdle. Following that, the quote’s theoretical rally towards 1.4500 gains attention. However, the previous monthly high of around 1.3900 and the 1.4000 psychological magnet could test the Loonie pair buyers. It should be observed that the April 2020 high surrounding 1.4300 also acts as an upside filter should the quote remain firmer past the 1.4000 threshold. Overall, the USDCAD is likely to decline ahead of the BoC’s verdict. However, the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD portrays bullish consolidation above 1.2600GBPUSD struggles to extend the previous three-week uptrend as it seesaws around a three-week high after retreating from an ascending resistance line stretched from late October. The pullback also takes clues from the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory, as well as an impending bear cross on the MACD. With this, the Cable pair appears vulnerable to extending the latest weakness towards the 1.2480-70 support confluence comprising 100-SMA, 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July upside. However, the 1.2600 and 1.2500 round figures are likely to test the bears before allowing them to confront with strong support. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2470, the odds of witnessing a quick fall toward October’s peak of 1.2337 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, GBPUSD recovery needs validation from the recent top surrounding 1.2735. Even so, the aforementioned resistance line, close to 1.2800 at the latest, and the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of nearly 1.2830 will challenge the Pound Sterling’s upside targeting the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Following that, the yearly high of 1.3142 will be in the spotlight. Above all, fears of the UK’s economic slowdown unearth as traders shift attention from dovish Fed concerns and brace for this week’s US jobs report, which in turn tests the GBPUSD pair buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold Price surges to the all-time high above $2,130 on weaker USGold prices (XAU/USD) climbs to an all-time high above the $2,100 psychological round mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its peak of the rate hike cycle boosts yellow metal demand. Gold price attracts some buyers above the $2,100 mark and has reached the record high of $2,148. At the time of writing, gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around $2,135, up 2.90% on the day.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by tradewith_ritik
EURUSD rebound appears elusive below 1.0930EURUSD floats above 100-SMA on early Monday, after posting the first weekly loss in three. However, the quote remains well below the key resistance confluence surrounding 1.0930, which comprises the 50-SMA, the bottom line of a monthly bullish channel and a downward-sloping trend line from November 29. It’s worth noting that the RSI rebound from the oversold territory allows the Euro pair to lick its wounds but the bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below the key upside hurdle keep the sellers hopeful. Even if the quote crosses the 1.0930 resistance, a fortnight-old rising trend line and the stated channel’s top line, close to 1.1050 and 1.1130 in that order, will test the pair buyers. On the contrary, the 100-SMA and a 13-day-old horizontal support zone, respectively near 1.0870 and 1.0830, restrict the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, the early November swing high of around 1.0750 will act as the final defense of the Euro buyers before opening the door for the bears to aim for the October swing high of around 1.0670. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0670, it becomes vulnerable to drop towards the previous monthly low surrounding 1.0515. Overall, EURUSD bears are in command despite the pair’s latest consolidation. However, the RSI conditions and this week’s US jobs report will be crucial to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD licks its wounds with eyes on ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s PowellEURUSD portrays a corrective bounce from the weekly low, snapping a two-day losing streak, as the pair traders await speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled late Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair reverses pullback from a five-month-old horizontal resistance as the RSI (14) line returns to normal territory after a brief move in the overbought region. However, the bearish MACD signals and failure to cross the key resistance area surrounding 1.1010-1000 push sellers toward a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October downside, near 1.0860 at the latest. It should be noted, though, that a convergence of the 200-SMA and previous resistance line stretched from late September, close to 1.0820-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair bears, a break of which will enable them to poke the mid-September peak of near 1.0700. Meanwhile, the late August swing high of 1.0945 and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of near 1.0960 restrict the immediate upside of EURUSD. Following that, the aforementioned resistance region surrounding 1.1010-1000 will regain the market’s attention. In a case where the Euro buyers manage to keep the reins past 1.1000, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of around 1.1000 will act as the final defense of the bears before directing prices toward the yearly high of 1.1275 marked in July. Overall, EURUSD is likely to stay pressured but the bears shouldn’t be hopeful of further downside unless they witness a sustained trading below 1.0820-15.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bulls lack momentum within rising wedge, Fed inflation eyedGold price remains sidelined at the highest level since May 05, making rounds to $2,045-50 during early Thursday, as market players await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index for October. That said, the overbought RSI (14) line and an impending bear cross on the MACD indicator challenge further upside of the XAUUSD within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between $2,055 and $1,987. It’s worth noting that an ascending trend line from mid-November, near $2,017, precedes the $2,000 psychological magnet to act as extra downside filters to watch during the quote’s pullback. Above all, the bullion buyers can remain hopeful beyond the 200-SMA, close to $1,978 by the press time. On the contrary, a clear upside break of the gold price beyond $2,055 will aim for the yearly high surrounding $2,067. It should be observed that the previous yearly high peak of $2,070 and the year 2020 top near $2,075 are additional challenges for the precious metal buyers to watch during the quote’s further upside. Following that, the XAUUSD bulls could quickly aim for the $2,100 round figure. However, the oscillators signal the need for buyers to take a breather before the next leg up, which in turn highlights each resistance. Apart from the challenging technical details, the recent improvement in the US GDP also hints at firmer US inflation data, which in turn can help the US Dollar recover from the three-month high prod the Gold buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD pullback appears overdue, 1.2560 eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in 12 weeks, printing mild intraday gains during a four-day uptrend, amid early Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable buyers jostle with a one-month-old bullish channel’s top line amid an overbought RSI (14) line. As a result, the quote’s pullback appears imminent. However, an ascending trend line from early November, close to 1.2560 at the latest, puts a floor under the Pound Sterling. In a case where the pair breaks the 1.2560 support, it becomes capable of challenging the short-term bullish channel formation, as well as the 200-EMA, by poking the 1.2370-65 support confluence. It’s worth noting, however, that the bear’s dominance past 1.2365 won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly low of around 1.2100. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need to cross the aforementioned channel’s top line, close to 1.2645-50 at the latest, to defy the odds of witnessing a pullback. In that case, the early August swing high of around 1.2820 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will lure the Cable buyers. However, the run-up will need validation from the US Q3 GDP, PCE Core Price Index and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, not to forget the concerns surrounding the UK’s economic growth and BoE’s hawkish move. Hence, the odds of witnessing the GBPUSD pair’s further upside appear thin but the pullback needs to break 1.2560 to convince sellers.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY extends pullback from 50-SMA despite firmer yieldsAfter multiple failures to cross the 50-SMA hurdle the last week, USDJPY sellers attack the 149.00 round figure amid a sluggish start to the key week comprising US GDP and Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, not to forget Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The pullback move also justifies the bearish MACD signals amid an absence of the oversold RSI (14). With this, the Yen pair is likely to revisit the monthly low of 147.15, marked the last Monday. However, the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from late March, respectively near 146.80 and 146.30, could challenge the risk-barometer pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote breaks the 146.30 level on a daily closing basis, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the five-month-old resistance-turned-support of around mid-143.00s. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 50-SMA hurdle of 149.65 becomes necessary for the USDJPY buyers to retake control. Even so, the 150.00 psychological magnet will play its role in testing the upside momentum. Following that, the monthly horizontal resistance surrounding 151.80 and an upward-sloping resistance line from late June, close to 153.00 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the bears. Overall, the USDJPY is likely to remain weak but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bounces off 200-SMA ahead of UK PMIsGBPUSD snapped a three-day winning streak the previous day as the UK’s Autumn Statement failed to impress Cable buyers despite offering tax cuts and higher wages. The reason could be linked to the mixed economic outlook for Britain and a corrective bounce in the US Treasury bond yields. However, the 200-SMA defends the Pound Sterling buyers so far on the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, as well as ahead of the UK’s release of preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for November. It’s worth noting, that the upbeat RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals enable the pair buyers to keep the reins within a one-month-old rising channel, currently between 1.2330 and 1.2620. However, the RSI conditions are nearly overbought and hence the late June’s low and May’s peak, close to 1.2590 and 1.2680 in that order, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls past 1.2620. Meanwhile, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA level of 1.2450 needs validation from the downbeat prints of the UK PMIs to lure the GBPUSD sellers. Even if the quote slides beneath the 1.2450 key SMA support, the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line of around 1.2330 will challenge the Cable bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the Pound Sterling’s rejection of the bullish chart pattern, by a daily closing below 1.2330, will make it vulnerable to drop towards the previous monthly low of around 1.2035 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet, before targeting the yearly low of around 1.1800.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls prod golden Fibonacci ratio amid overbought RSIEURUSD hovers near the highest level in 14 weeks, recently picking up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October downside, also known as the Gold Fibonacci ratio. Apart from the key Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.0965, the overbought conditions of the RSI (14) line also challenge the Euro buyers. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s successful trading above the 200-SMA and the bullish MACD signals keep the bulls hopeful of crossing the immediate hurdle, which in turn opens the door for the pair’s rally toward the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio and the yearly high marked in July, respectively near 1.1100 and 1.1275. On the flip side, the EURUSD pair’s pullback could aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 1.0865 but the bears need validation from the 200-SMA level of 1.0800. Following that, the early-month swing high of around 1.0750 could test the Euro sellers. Above all, the pair buyers remain hopeful unless they witness a daily close beneath a convergence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a seven-week-old upward-sloping support line, close to 1.0650. Overall, EURUSD bulls approach the key upside hurdle ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders and the weekly employment data, making it the key pair to observe ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.
by MTradingGlobal