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Fibonacci Retracement

Chumtrades XAUUSD Has Wave B finished?GOLD – DAILY PLAN Has Wave B finished? → No confirmation yet. Macro & Market Sentiment US–Iran negotiations have been cancelled. Geopolitical risks remain, but not strong enough to trigger a new bullish wave. Gold experienced a relatively calm trading session, failed to break above the key level around 5,100, and saw a moderate pullback during the US session. The Daily candle formed a Spinning Top, indicating market indecision and consolidation, with a lack of momentum for a breakout. 👉 Macro factors are supporting prices, but not pushing the market into an immediate uptrend. Technical Structure & Outlook Price is still moving within a descending price channel. On the H1 timeframe, price has broken above the 4,888 key level, showing a technical rebound. However, the higher timeframe structure remains bearish, with no confirmed trend reversal. → Therefore, current rebounds are considered pullbacks within a downtrend. Key Levels Support: 4,810 | 4,830 | 4,700–4,750 | 4,650–4,624 Resistance: 4,950–5,000 | 5,100 Trading Scenarios Primary strategy: Sell the rallies within the descending channel. Look for SELL setups near resistance zones, targeting lower lows. Momentum SELL may be considered if price clearly breaks below 4,882–4,890, with confirmation on H2 or H4, targeting around 4,810. No BUY positions while price remains inside the descending channel. 👉 Only if price breaks and holds above 5,100, will we start reassessing a trend-following BUY scenario. 👉 Deeper pullbacks are viewed as potential zones for swing BUY opportunities, not short-term buys at this stage. Note: The market is in a “confidence-testing” phase. Focus on zone-based trading, trend alignment, reduced position size, and avoid FOMO.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
Wave B Has Rebounded 15% Bottom Confirmed at 4,400?Wave B Has Rebounded 15% – Final Bottom or a Trap Before Wave C? After a strong rally in yesterday’s Asian session, gold moved into consolidation during the European and US sessions, with a failed breakout late in the US session. In today’s Asian session, price broke above the 4,882–4,960 range, confirming it as a new buy-side base. Gold has rebounded ~15% from the 4,404 area, driven by dip-buying demand and rising US–Iran geopolitical tensions, which remain a key catalyst alongside this week’s economic data. From an Elliott Wave perspective, 4,400 marks the Wave A bottom. The market is now in a Wave B corrective rebound, with potential upside toward 5,140 – 5,200 – 5,220. Once Wave B completes, Wave C may follow, where signs of weakness and distribution will be watched to identify new swing-buy zones after the correction. Support: 4,990–4,950 | 4,880–4,890 | 4,780–4,750 | 4,650–4,624 Resistance: 5,140 | 5,200 | 5,220 Note: Volatility remains elevated. Trade cautiously with strict risk and capital management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Gold ATH after FOMC: Reaction or New Wave?Before the FOMC meeting, the market shared the same question: would gold rally ahead of the meeting and then face a sharp sell-off afterward, or continue breaking higher and extend the trend? After the FOMC, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged — which was not a surprise. What really mattered was the Fed’s tone, and Powell clearly chose a balanced stance: neither too dovish nor too hawkish. More importantly, the Fed has effectively ruled out further rate hikes, while still maintaining a high interest-rate environment. As a result, gold did not experience a heavy sell-off after the FOMC, and continues to hold its structure near the highs. At this stage, market focus is shifting toward external risk factors: The risk of a U.S. government shutdown U.S.–Iran tensions Ongoing trade war risks with major partners Questions surrounding the independence of the Fed 👉 The current macro backdrop is not bearish for gold. 👉 SELL setups are reactionary, not the core narrative of the trend. ⏱️ H1 Observation Range Lower bound: 5,415 Upper bound: 5,600 Price is consolidating near the highs with a wide range and may gradually push toward higher round-number levels. 🟢 Support / BUY zones 5,505 – 5,410 – 5,310 – 5,250 – 5,100 🔴 Resistance / Key observation zones 5,660–5,665 – 5,700 – 5,800 – 6,000 🧠 Primary scenario Wide volatility → risk management is key. SELLs are only short-term reactions at resistance. BUY pullbacks to support to ride the broader move, not to pick the top. ⚠️ Key notes for the current phase Reading the chart is a skill. Reading the Fed is a strategy. Reading Trump’s statements is survival. Markets don’t reward being right — they reward discipline and alignment with the trend. 👉 SELL to react — BUY to stay in the game. 📌 Follow me to track macro scenarios, key price levels, and the ongoing journey of finding opportunities in the market.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Chum_trades
Gold at ATH before FOMC shakeout first or straight breakout?🧭 Macro Snapshot Donald Trump maintains a hardline stance, increasing military presence in the Middle East → geopolitical risk remains elevated. Tonight’s key focus: Federal Reserve Political pressure and questions around Fed independence. DXY continues to weaken, retesting major historical support (2020–2022) → supportive for gold. 👉 Conclusion: Geopolitics + a weaker USD set the bullish bias, while the Fed determines short-term volatility. 📊 Intraday Range to Watch Upper range: 5,280 – 5,305 Lower range: 5,190 – 5,160 → High probability of range trading and liquidity absorption ahead of the Fed decision. 🟢 Support 5,220–5,225 | 5,150–5,165 | 5,080–5,085 | 5,050–5,060 🔴 Resistance 5,280–5,294 | 5,300 | 5,315 | 5,380–5,385 ⚠️ Strategy Notes Expect possible fake moves / stop hunts within the range. Avoid chasing highs or catching tops without confirmation. Focus on price reaction at key levels and stay disciplined. Summary: Gold is fundamentally supported, but today the key is how price reacts within 5,160–5,305. Be patient — wait for confirmation — trade the reaction.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Next week: Will gold listen to the Fed… or the White House?🔎 Context Next week could be highly volatile as monetary policy and geopolitics converge. Donald Trump signaled a potential 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada moves closer to trade deals with China—raising trade-war risks. At the same time, military assets are being deployed en masse around Iran, heightening concerns that tensions could escalate. 👉 Safe-haven flows may return, with gold potentially opening the week gap-up and early buying. 🧠 Quick take Primary trend: Bullish At elevated prices: a short, sharp shakeout is possible to absorb liquidity No top/bottom calls—watch price reactions at key zones 📌 Key levels to watch 🟢 Supports: 4920–4900 | 4890–4882 | 4850–4830 | 4660–4640 🔴 Observation resistances: 5006–5030–5090 | 5110–5115 | Current ATH 🎭 Weekly scenarios (reference only) Early week: Gap-up / early push Pre-FOMC: Chop & liquidity sweep Then: Deep shakeout or base-building and continuation 👉 Distribution at the top—or just a pause before the next leg higher?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
Chumtrades XAUUSD H2 | Is the Liquidity Sweep Over?Chumtrades – XAUUSD H2 | Has the Liquidity Sweep Finished, or Is There More Downside Ahead? On Friday, the market reacted strongly after Trump’s comments regarding Kevin Hassett, when Trump expressed his preference for Hassett to remain in his current role rather than taking a new position. 👉 As a result, gold printed a long wick liquidity sweep back into the prior ATH zone, around 4530–453X, before closing back above 456X. This brings us to the key question: Was this sweep enough for the BUY side, or is the market still looking to test lower levels? Political developments will be a key driver for gold direction in the coming week. 📰 Key Political Factors to Monitor 1. Trump – Greenland The US has imposed 10% tariffs, with the possibility of increasing them to 25% on countries that do not support the annexation of Greenland No fixed deadline, tariffs remain until Greenland becomes part of the US → This is a supportive factor for gold, especially amid rising geopolitical uncertainty → This news may directly impact the market open → If price reacts strongly, avoid SELLs near resistance 2. Iran – Protests Monitor the risk of Trump returning to direct intervention → A potential headline-driven volatility trigger 🟢 Key Support Zones to Watch 4530 – 4535 4515 – 4510 4480 – 4482 4462 4410 – 4407 🔴 Key Resistance Zones to Monitor 4618 – 4628 4648 – 4650 4655 – 4660 4698 – 4699 ⚠️ Trading Notes Price levels are zones for observation, not instant entry points SELL setups around 462X must be evaluated based on news reaction If momentum accelerates on headlines → stay flat and avoid trading against strength 💬 Question for the New Week Is the market finishing its liquidity collection on the BUY side, or was Friday’s sweep the final test before the next leg higher? 📌 Follow Chumtrades for proactive market analysis, structured trade planning, and risk management insights.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Gold Before CPI: Top or Trap?Catching Gold’s Top Before CPI: A Good Trade or a Psychological Trap? 🧭 1. STRATEGIC CONTEXT Primary trend: GOLD remains in an uptrend; the higher-timeframe structure is still intact. Macro backdrop: CPI tonight may cause short-term volatility. However, geopolitics is currently a stronger driver than CPI. Key geopolitical risks: Greenland tensions → escalating global strategic rivalry. Protests in Iran, power and internet cuts → rising Middle East risks. 👉 Strategic implication: Gold continues to be supported as a safe-haven asset → pullbacks are for buying, not for chasing shorts. 📊 2. CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE Price is: Holding the ascending trendline Consolidating in a box, compressing ahead of CPI Market condition: High probability of false breakouts Top-catching traps are very likely before the news 📍 3. KEY PRICE LEVELS 🔴 RESISTANCE 4,680 – 4,700 → Previous high / ATH zone → Reactive sells only if clear rejection appears 4,655 – 4,660 → Intermediate resistance, easily swept pre-CPI 🟣 CONSOLIDATION BOX 4,595 – 4,630 → Sideways range ahead of CPI → No FOMO inside the box 🟢 SUPPORT 4,545 – 4,550 → Major confluence support 4,480 → Medium-term support, trendline retest 4,420 → Deep support, last bullish structure zone 📝 4. IMPORTANT NOTES Higher CPI: May trigger a technical pullback ❌ Does NOT automatically mean a top Lower / in-line CPI: Gold may consolidate above highs and break ATH Selling before CPI: → Reactive scalps only, no holding Buying: → Only when price reaches key zones with clear reaction 🎯 5. STRATEGIC MINDSET ❌ Don’t force top-catching while geopolitics supports gold ✅ Focus on risk management – wait for zones – wait for confirmation 🧠 Before CPI: survival > profit
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Chumtrades XAUUSD Weekly Key Levels Bias: Still favor BUY with the primary trend, watching for pullbacks to lower levels. Support zones 4307 – 4300 (near-term support, key area to watch) 4260 – 4255 – 4250 (intermediate support) 4178 – 4168 (deep support, strong demand) Resistance zones 4404 – 4413 4445 – 4465 4500 (ATH) Weekly / Intraday scenario Market is likely to trade in a range today. Expected range: Lower bound: 4300 Upper bound: 4513 👉 Overall strategy: Monitor price reaction at support zones, especially 4300 and below.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
AWHCL: Signs of Trend ReversalThe stock of AWHCL has shown signs of recovery after a prolonged downtrend that began in September. Recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum, supported by multiple technical factors across daily and weekly timeframes. The stock has bounced from a long-term support level marked on the chart. The recent retracement from the swing high and higher low aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a zone often considered significant for trend continuation, indicating strong bullish momentum. A bullish MACD crossover occurred on the daily chart last week, and notably, a weekly MACD crossover has been confirmed today. This dual timeframe alignment strengthens the bullish outlook. The RSI readings support the bullish scenario, reflecting improving momentum without entering extreme overbought territory. On the daily chart, the stock has managed to close above the 200DEMA, a key indicator of long-term trend strength which also seen by volume growth. Key Levels to Monitor: Support Zone: Around ₹417 (critical level for trend validation) Resistance Zone: Near ₹632, which coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, often viewed as a potential target in bullish setups. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Market participants should conduct independent research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:AWHCLLong
by NiftyNotion
Parallel Channel, Stubborn Gap & 0.5 Equilibrium RejectionDaily Timeframe Details The left chart on the daily timeframe displays a parallel channel structure forming after an initial one-sided move.​ A significant gap emerged within this leg, which price has approached multiple times—first entering the gap area from below but rejecting sharply to form a higher low, then pushing toward a higher high without fully filling it.​ This illustrates how gaps often resist easy fills from either direction, acting as persistent reference zones that demand confluence for interaction. Weekly Timeframe Context The right chart provides the weekly timeframe for the same instrument, highlighting repeated rejections at the 0.5 equilibrium level.​ These weekly rejections align precisely with the daily gap interactions and channel boundaries, demonstrating how higher-timeframe equilibrium can underpin lower-timeframe price behavior without implying direction.​ Such multi-timeframe alignment offers educational insight into structural references in market analysis. This post serves purely educational and observational purposes and does not constitute buy, sell, or investment advice. Always conduct your own research.
NSE:PNBHOUSINGLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
ChumTrades XAUUSD intraday outlookXAUUSD – Intraday Plan (M15) Market Context Price is currently ranging in a very tight consolidation. Momentum is weak → market favors intraday range trading rather than chasing breakouts. Short-term structure remains intact; focus on price reaction at key levels. Daily Strategy Main approach: trade the range, trade the reaction. Buy at predefined support / Fibonacci zones, sell at clear resistance. If a breakout occurs, wait for a retest before following the move. Avoid entries in the middle of the range. Key Buy Zones 4246 – 4244 (Fibo 0.5) 4236 – 4233 (Fibo 0.618) 4210 – 4208 (deep support reaction) ❌ Bullish structure invalidation: M15 close below 4200 Key Sell Zones 4300 – 4305 (psychological resistance) 4310 (Fibonacci extension – reaction sell) Special Notes (Friday) No major economic news today, but it is Friday – end of week. Price action may become choppy and unpredictable, especially during the US session (a pattern seen in recent weeks). Risk management is key: Focus on short-term trades Take profits early Avoid holding positions over the weekend Good luck Bro !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
Chumtrades XAUUSD Outlook – Will Gold Continue Sideways Today?🎯 XAUUSD – Sideway Day Before FOMC 1️⃣ Market Context H4 is clearly moving sideways: small candle bodies – long upper and lower wicks, indicating hesitation before FOMC (occurring the night of the 11th into the morning of the 12th). The price is currently locked in the H4 range: Lower boundary: 4176–4180 Upper boundary: 4215–4218 Today I am observing the price moving sideways within this range. 2️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy 🟢 BUY low – priority Watch for reactions at the zones: 4180 – 4182 4174 – 4178 (bottom of H4 range) 4155 – 415X (most attractive BUY zone) → Short target: 4200 – 4210 → SL below support zone by 100 pips 🔻 SELL high – priority Watch for reactions at: 4212 – 4218 (top of H4 range) 4230 – 4233 (strong resistance – most attractive sell zone) → Target: return to mid-range 4190 → bottom of range 417X → SL above resistance zone by 100 pips The nearest zone is 4202-4198, this entry can be considered 3️⃣ Expected Movement Today → Sideways within H4 box 4176 ⇆ 4212. Just trade according to the range: buy low – sell high. Expected daily fluctuation range is 50-55 prices. A true breakout may occur tomorrow or the day after, as the market prepares for this week's FOMC. 📌 Note Prioritize candle reactions at price zones. Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range. Divide positions smaller than usual as the market tightens before major news. Find this analysis useful? Press Follow to update the plan daily before trading hours and discuss more effective strategies! Wishing everyone a day of total victory in trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
3
XAUUSD – Weekly outlookXAUUSD – Weekly outlook: structure points towards 4,580 as long as bulls hold the line Brian – Favouring buy-the-dip setups while price holds above 3,996 1. Market overview – triangle break and trend confirmation On the daily chart, gold has finally broken out of the long consolidation triangle, with Friday’s candle closing cleanly above the descending trendline that has capped price for weeks. For me, this breakout is the first proper confirmation that the primary bullish trend is resuming. The next major resistance on the chart sits around 4,246 – a key level I’m watching as a trend-confirmation line. If price can break and hold above 4,246, the path towards the higher zone around 4,580 opens up, in line with the Fibonacci extension drawn on the chart. In short: the structure into next week is bullish, with pullbacks seen as opportunities to position for a potential move towards new highs. 2. Technical structure – from breakout to extension targets The breakout from the triangle comes after a sequence of higher lows bouncing off the rising trendline, indicating accumulation rather than distribution. Below price, we have demand zones clustered around the 4,110 trendline area and deeper supports near 4,040 and 3,920. Above price, the roadmap is fairly clear: First, a test of 4,246 (local resistance & former supply). Then the ATH / prior high region around 4,360–4,380. Finally, the Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects into the 4,560–4,580 zone, which is my medium-term upside objective if bulls can maintain control. As long as daily structure keeps printing higher highs and higher lows and price stays above the key invalidation at 3,996, I will continue to treat gold as buy-on-dip rather than looking for major tops. 3. Key zones & trading ideas for next week I’m not treating this as a signal service, but here’s how I’m mapping the chart for my own trading: Primary idea – Buy the dip into trendline / support Watch zone: around the rising trendline near 4,110. If price pulls back into this area early in the week and shows a clear rejection on H4/D1 (wick rejections, bullish engulfing etc.), I’ll be interested in building long positions. Upside path: First objective: 4,246 – trend-confirmation resistance. If broken and retested from above, the next leg could extend towards 4,360–4,380. Extension target: 4,560–4,580 in line with the 1.618 Fibonacci projection. Secondary idea – Using Fibonacci zones on break above 4,246 If gold breaks and holds above 4,246, the Fibonacci zones between roughly 4,360 and 4,580 become interesting for scaling in / managing positions: Partial profits or tight trailing stops can be considered as we approach 4,360–4,380. Any healthy corrective pullback from that region that respects the rising structure could still offer add-on entries with the 4,580 zone as a medium-term target. Invalidation: A daily close below 3,996 would seriously damage this bullish structure and force me to reassess. Below that, I would step aside and wait for a new pattern rather than trying to force the long idea. 4. Fundamental backdrop – why gold still has a bid From a macro point of view, gold is navigating a mix of: Tariff and trade tensions, which keep hedging demand alive as investors look for protection against policy shocks. Ongoing geopolitical risks and conflict, supporting gold’s role as a classic safe-haven asset. A late-cycle interest-rate environment, where markets are increasingly focused on when and how aggressively central banks will adjust policy after a period of elevated rates and liquidity distortions. This combination tends to limit the downside for gold: even when we see corrections, dip-buyers are never too far away, especially when the technical structure is aligned with the macro story. 5. Strategy & risk management Into next week, my bias is clear: structure is bullish above 3,996, so I prefer buying pullbacks rather than trying to short into strength. The trendline around 4,110 is my first area of interest for fresh longs; anything closer to 4,040–4,000 (if we see a deeper flush) would be considered an even better price, provided the daily structure doesn’t break. As always, position sizing and stop placement are key – one good weekly move is far more valuable than several emotional entries trying to catch every candle. What do you reckon – does this breakout have enough fuel to take us towards 4,580, or do you see a deeper correction setting up first? Feel free to share your view in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
FVG Retracement With EMA, RSI & Fib Confluence📈 Bitcoin Chart – FVG Retracement With EMA, RSI & Fib Confluence in a Bearish Market Structure This chart showcases a sustained bearish sequence on BTC, defined by a clean continuation of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Throughout this decline, multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed both locally and at higher levels — each created by strong institutional sell-side displacement. As price trends downward, these unmitigated FVGs above the market consistently act as magnet zones:price retraces into previous inefficiencies, rebalances them, and resumes the dominant bearish trend. In the current setup, the integration of FVGs + Fibonacci Retracement(Point A to B) + EMA Levels + RSI Momentum provides a highly structured roadmap for anticipating retracements and continuation points. The most significant imbalance sits near the major Fib retracement zone and under key EMAs — making it the highest-probability reaction area. Secondary FVGs below it may still induce a bounce, but carry lower structural relevance. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Key Observations 1️⃣ Prior FVG Mitigation A previously formed FVG under the EMA was cleanly filled, followed by immediate downside continuation. This confirms bearish order-flow control and validates the role of FVGs as efficient retracement targets in a downtrend. 2️⃣ High-Priority FVG (Primary Zone) The upper FVG holds the strongest confluence: Created by strong displacement Sits below the EMA50 Aligns with the 38.2%–61.8% Fib retracement zone This cluster makes it the most likely zone for a meaningful bearish rejection if price retraces into it. 3️⃣ Secondary FVG Reaction Zone A lower FVG also exists beneath the main zone. Although it can cause a minor corrective bounce, it formed during a smaller move and does not align with the key trend or Fib levels — giving it lower probability. 4️⃣ RSI Momentum Context RSI remains below 50, confirming bearish momentum. When RSI stays under mid-line, bearish FVG reactions tend to be more reliable and continuation setups form cleanly. 5️⃣ Structural Context The broader structure remains decisively bearish as long as price trades below the EMAs and below the major upper FVG. Retracements into these zones are more likely to serve as rebalancing moves rather than genuine reversal attempts. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Chart Explanation Symbol → BTCUSDT Timeframe → 1D This visualization illustrates how Smart Money Concepts apply cleanly during strong trending conditions: A clear LH–LL downtrend Several historical FVGs acting as retracement magnets A previously mitigated FVG confirming bearish control A high-confluence FVG aligned with EMAs and Fib levels A secondary imbalance that can still induce short-term reactions RSI showing momentum remains bearish Together, these elements outline a textbook sequence: displacement → inefficiency → retracement → rebalancing → continuation. Price remains under firm bearish control unless it breaks above the upper FVG with conviction. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📘 Using Fib Retracement, EMA50, and RSI With FVGs (Bullish + Bearish) 🔹 1. Fibonacci Retracement + FVG In a downtrend, draw Fib from swing high → low; in an uptrend, draw low → high The 38.2%–61.8% zone is the prime retracement area in both directions. If an FVG forms or sits inside this Fib zone, it becomes a high-probability reaction point (bearish rejection in downtrend, bullish bounce in uptrend). 🔹 2. EMA50 + FVG In a bearish trend, price and FVGs forming below EMA50 act as stronger bearish retracement zones. In a bullish trend, price and FVGs forming above EMA50 act as stronger bullish retracement zones. EMA50 acts as a mean reversion point where price often returns to rebalance before continuation. 🔹 3. RSI + FVG RSI below 50 → bearish momentum → bearish FVG reactions are more reliable. RSI above 50 → bullish momentum → bullish FVG reactions are more reliable. If RSI rises from oversold (or falls from overbought), it often signals a retracement phase toward nearby FVGs. 🔹 4. Combined Logic (Works for Bullish and Bearish) Displacement creates an FVG (inefficiency). Price retraces into the 38–61% Fib zone. Retracement taps EMA50 or stays on the correct side of EMA50 (below for bearish, above for bullish). RSI confirms momentum (below 50 for bearish continuation, above 50 for bullish continuation). Price rejects from the FVG and continues the trend. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ✅ Summary Market structure remains bearish with consistent LHs and LLs. A previously filled FVG under the EMA validated the continuation move. The upper FVG is the highest-strength level due to EMA + Fib + displacement confluence. A lower FVG exists but carries reduced importance. RSI below 50 reinforces bearish momentum and reliability of bearish FVG reactions. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer 📘 For educational purposes only. 🙅 Not SEBI registered. ❌ Not investment advice. 🧠 Smart-Money-Concepts explanation only.
Short
by MarketAlgoBot
3
Possibility Due To Weak TrendTrend Started Became Weak I already for daytime frame this 4h time frame channel breakdown already happened may take support from fib level 0.6 but possible to maybe price come to 0.7 level easily. Reverse Scenario: Break his channel high price level 🧠 Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) ⚖️ This is not financial advice or suggestion 👉 “Risk Is Real 💸 Stay Practical🚀” 💬 Please feel free to ask any questions (It's Free) BINANCE:STRKUSDT
CRYPTO:STRKSUSDShort
by Jatin109
Symmetrical Triangle Structure & Key EquilibriumEditorial Insights - Symmetrical triangles signal a balanced tug-of-war between buyers and sellers; this compression, as mapped here, often precedes significant expansions in volume and volatility. - The triangular structure’s edges—CT (red) and trendline (green)—have been tested repeatedly over months, reflecting both supply absorption and demand resilience. - The hidden white line adds a subtle layer of convergence, useful for traders identifying areas of potential liquidity concentration. - The yellow 50% Fibonacci level frames the equilibrium for this market phase, offering a snapshot of price discovery dynamics within the triangle. - Price positioning relative to all these lines is best seen as a way to monitor evolving order flow and market intent, without any explicit forecasting or directional bias. Key Levels & Reference - CT (Red): Major supply test points. - Trendline (Green): Demand and higher low sequence. - Hidden Line (White): Structural convergence not visibly obvious but influential. - Fibonacci 50% (Yellow): Core equilibrium reflecting price agreement zone. This post is for educational and analytical purposes, respecting the principle that all information is a visual observation—not a prediction or directional signal, but a live structure map to enrich your pattern playbook.
NSE:BHELLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
Sobha- A breakout of consolidation is on cardsRealty sector has been performing well post Q2 results announcements. Sobha has posted stellar Q2 numbers but it might be one off quarter as well. Technically, stock is looking ripe for a good flag breakout of consolidation. We might soon see a breakout coming but sustainment of breakout is crucial for further upmove. Levels are mentioned on chart. We can see upside of more than 50% if breakout sustains. You can also check other realty sector stocks and see if any similar pattern is visible. Please note that I am just NISM certified RA and not SEBI registered. This analysis is not a recommendation but has been shared for educational purposes only.
NSE:SOBHALong
by chartistamey
3
Bullish Fibonacci Retracement Setup📈 Bullish Fibonacci Retracement Setup Intro The chart illustrates a classic Bullish Fibonacci Retracement structure — highlighting key swing points, retracement levels, and potential continuation zones. Price action shows a healthy pullback within a larger uptrend, suggesting accumulation before a possible breakout move. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🟩 Chart Overview • Point A → Represents the Swing Low , marking the starting point of the current upward move. • Point B → Denotes the Swing High , where price faced resistance before retracing. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 📊 Key Fibonacci Levels 1️⃣ Validation Line (78.60%) — Entry is confirmed when any two consecutive candles close above this level, signaling a strong breakout and bullish continuation. 2️⃣ Minimum Retracement (61.80%) — This level has been achieved, and two candles have successfully closed below it, confirming a valid retracement phase within the Fibonacci structure. 3️⃣ Devalidation Line (38.20%) — If any two candles close below this level, the Fibonacci setup becomes invalid. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ 🎯 Trail Levels Trail Levels → • Stop-loss will trail two levels below the current active level. • Each target level is confirmed only when two consecutive candles close above it successfully . ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ✅ Summary • Price is retracing within a strong bullish trend. • A close above the 78.6% Validation Line confirms continuation. • Structure remains valid as long as price holds above the 38.2% Devalidation Line. • Trail progressively with momentum as higher targets activate. ⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: 📘 For educational purposes only. 🙅 Not SEBI registered. ❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation. 🧠 Purely a learning resource. 📊 Not Financial Advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MarketAlgoBot
ChennaiPetro: Wedge & Trendline BO with 61.8%, Chart of the WeekNSE:CHENNPETRO Explosive Breakout: Why This Refinery Stock Could Rally Another 30% After Its Q2 Turnaround. This PSU Refinery Stock Broke Through ₹979 Levels - Here's What Traders Need to Know About the Next Move. Let's Analyse in our Chart of the Week Below. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Trend Structure and Momentum: - The stock experienced a prolonged uptrend from March 2023 to July 2024, rallying from base levels around ₹433 to a peak of ₹1,275, representing approximately 195% appreciation - Post the July 2024 peak, the stock entered a corrective phase characterised by lower highs and consolidation - Recent price action shows a breakout above the descending cyan trendline that had been capping rallies since mid-2024 - Current price of ₹979.35 (as of October 31, 2025) represents a 26.80% gain, indicating strong buying momentum - The stock is trading above all key Fibonacci retracement levels, having reclaimed the 61.8% level at approximately ₹953 Candlestick Patterns and Formations: - The most recent candle shows a strong bullish close with a substantial body, indicating conviction in the upward move - The chart displays a rising wedge/descending channel pattern that was broken decisively in recent sessions - Prior consolidation between ₹700-₹850 formed a re-accumulation base, which has now been breached to the upside - The breakout candle demonstrates strong price and volume expansion, a classic sign of institutional participation Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Recent volume surge to 90.39 million shares significantly exceeds the average volume of 13.46 million, representing approximately 6.7x normal trading activity - The volume spike coincides with the price breakout, validating the move as genuine rather than a false breakout - Historical volume analysis shows similar spikes during major trend reversals, particularly during the March 2023 base breakout - Volume expansion without corresponding price weakness suggests strong demand absorption at current levels Volume-Price Relationship: - The volume profile indicates heavy accumulation in the ₹700-₹800 zone, which now serves as a critical support cluster - Recent sessions show sustained above-average volume, suggesting institutional interest rather than retail speculation - The volume pattern aligns with a classic "breakout with expansion" scenario, increasing the probability of trend continuation Support and Resistance Levels: Key Support Zones: - Primary Support (S1): ₹854 - This represents the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and previous consolidation high - Secondary Support (S2): ₹754 - The 0.382 Fibonacci level and recent breakout point from the descending trendline - Critical Support (S3): ₹631 - The 0.236 Fibonacci level and long-term base support at ₹433-₹450 zone - The grey trendline originating from the 2024 lows provides dynamic support, currently positioned around ₹720 Key Resistance Zones: - Immediate Resistance (R1): ₹1,094 - The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level - Major Resistance (R2): ₹1,275 - The all-time high achieved in July 2024 and psychological resistance - Extended Resistance (R3): ₹1,400-₹1,500 - Projected based on measured move from the consolidation range Technical Patterns and Indicators: Chart Patterns: - Descending Channel Breakout: The stock has successfully breached the cyan-colored descending trendline that acted as resistance since July 2024 - Rising Wedge Resolution: The consolidation pattern between August and October 2025 has resolved to the upside - Base-on-Base Formation: The ₹433 level established in early 2024 served as the foundation for the subsequent rally, demonstrating strong long-term base support - Cup and Handle (Potential): If the stock consolidates between ₹950-₹1,050 and then breaks out, it could form a cup and handle pattern projecting toward ₹1,400+ Fibonacci Analysis: - The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ₹953 has been convincingly reclaimed, suggesting the corrective phase may be complete - Golden ratio support held perfectly during the September-October consolidation - The next Fibonacci target at 0.786 (₹1,094) represents the immediate upside objective - Fibonacci extension levels project Upmove at ₹1,350 (1.272 extension) and ₹1,500 (1.618 extension) if the rally extends Risk Factors and Invalidation Levels: - A close below ₹920 would signal a potential false breakout - Sustained trading below ₹850 would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest resumption of the downtrend - Weekly close below the broken trendline (currently around ₹940) would be a bearish reversal signal - Failure to maintain above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement could trigger another corrective leg Fundamental and Sectoral Backdrop: Company Fundamentals: - Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CPCL) reported Q2 FY26 revenue of ₹16,327 crore with profit after tax of ₹719 crore - The company achieved a crude throughput of 3.013 million metric tonnes (MMT) with a Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of $9.04 per barrel in Q2 FY26 - However, Q1 FY26 saw challenges with a net loss of ₹40 crore compared to a profit of ₹357 crore in Q1 FY25, primarily due to inventory losses and lower GRM of $3.22 per barrel - For H1 FY26, CPCL recorded net profit of ₹689.68 crore versus a net loss of ₹294.45 crore in H1 FY25, with average GRM at $6.17 per barrel - The company achieved a record crude throughput of 11.642 MMT with 111% capacity utilisation Business Operations and Product Portfolio: - CPCL is engaged in refining crude oil to produce various petroleum products, including LPG, Motor Spirit, Kerosene, Aviation Turbine Fuel, High Speed Diesel, Naphtha, Fuel Oil, and Bitumen - The company also produces speciality products like Paraffin Wax, Mineral Turpentine Oil, Hexane, and Petrochemical feedstocks - Most fuel products are marketed by the parent company, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), while CPCL directly markets speciality products - In 2024, CPCL commissioned new infrastructure, including Pharma Grade Hexane production and Sustainable Aviation Fuel Financial Metrics and Valuation: - Market capitalisation stands at approximately ₹14,584 crore, with the company maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 35% - CPCL has demonstrated strong return on equity with a 3-year ROE of 31% and has reduced debt levels - Current price-to-earnings and other valuation metrics suggest the stock is reasonably valued considering sectoral challenges Sector Outlook and Industry Trends: - India's refining capacity increased to 258.1 MMTPA as of FY25, with domestic consumption at 239.2 MMTPA - India is expected to drive global oil demand growth, with consumption projected at 5.74 million barrels per day in 2025 and 5.99 million bpd in 2026 - The country plans to expand refining capacity to 309.5 MMTPA by 2028 - Refinery output has been strong, with manufacturing IIP for refined petroleum products rising 4.24% in June 2025, driven by auto-fuel demand growth of 7.9% year-on-year - However, refining margins are expected to fall below mid-cycle levels in FY25, indicating potential profitability challenges Opportunities and Challenges: Opportunities: - Downstream activities driven by refinery-petrochemical integration are projected to post the highest 5.2% CAGR through 2030 - Growing domestic demand for petroleum products with urbanisation and economic growth - Government initiatives supporting energy infrastructure development - Indian refiners have benefited from processing discounted Russian crude, generating significant margins Challenges: - Net profit declined for the last two quarters, with an average decrease of 108.5% per quarter, and revenue fell 14.1% per quarter - Volatile crude oil prices and fluctuating gross refining margins - India's domestic crude oil production has fallen 26.3% and natural gas by 24.1% during FY12-FY25, leading to increased import dependency - Environmental regulations and pressure to transition toward cleaner energy - Institutional investment in CPCL decreased by 37.83% over the past 30 days Competitive Position: - CPCL is a subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation, providing strategic advantages in product marketing and distribution - The company competes with major refiners, including Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Mangalore Refinery - CPCL's core vision is to be the most admired Indian energy company, creating value through world-class performance and ethical governance - The company's location in South India provides strategic advantages for serving the region's growing energy needs Fundamental Risks: - The stock trades at reasonable valuations with potential upside to fair value estimates around ₹1,050 - Strong Q2 performance suggests earnings momentum is improving after a weak Q1 - Sectoral tailwinds from growing domestic demand support medium-term prospects - Key risks include GRM volatility, crude price fluctuations, and regulatory changes My 2 Cents: - CPCL presents a compelling technical setup following the breakout from a multi-month consolidation pattern - The combination of volume expansion, Fibonacci support, and trendline breach suggests potential for further upside - Risk management is critical given sectoral volatility; strict adherence to stop losses is recommended Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:CHENNPETROLong
by Karanshah137
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