GBPUSD struggles with support-turned-resistanceGBPUSD snapped a two-day winning streak on Thursday while retreating from a previous support line stretched from November 22. It’s worth noting, however, that late Thursday’s corrective bounce in the Cable pair renewed bullish bias about the quote, especially amid the upbeat RSI conditions. With this, the support-turned-resistance line surrounding 1.2650 challenges the Pound Sterling buyers. Apart from that, a convergence of the 100 and 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.2660 by the press time, also acts as a tough nut to crack for the bulls. In a case where the prices remain firmer past 1.2660, a quick run-up toward a one-month-old resistance line, close to 1.2770 at the latest, can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD pair sellers need validation from the previous day’s low of near 1.2570 to take fresh positions. Even so, a two-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 1.2520–2500 will challenge the quote’s downside momentum. Following that, the mid-November 2023 swing low of around 1.2370 will act as the final defense of the Cable buyers before giving control to the bears.
Overall, the GBPUSD pair buyers flex muscles ahead of the key week comprising a slew of UK and US data.
Forex-trading
Gold again retreats from 200-SMA but bears need validationGold price fades bounce off a two-month-old rising support line, failing to cheer the US Dollar’s weakness, as the 200-SMA hurdle again challenges the metal buyers ahead of the second-tier employment clues from the US. Not only the 200-SMA resistance surrounding $2,040 and the pre-data anxiety, steady RSI and sluggish MACD signals also challenge the XAUUSD buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the $2,040 upside hurdle, a five-week-long horizontal resistance zone of around $2,065 will be a tough nut to crack for the bullion buyers before retaking control. Following that, a run-up toward the late December 2023 peak of near $2,088 will be quick to witness on the chart.
Meanwhile, an ascending support line from early December, close to $2,020 by the press time restricts the short-term downside of the Gold price. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $2,020, the mid-January swing low of near the $2,000 threshold will return to the charts. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s weakness past $2,000 makes it vulnerable to slump toward the two-month low of nearly $1,973 before challenging the November 2023 trough surrounding $1,930.
Overall, Gold Price remains pressured on a short-term basis but the sellers need validation from technical and fundamental perspectives.
USDJPY portrays bullish consolidation, further downside expectedOn Tuesday, the USDJPY pair snapped a two-day winning streak while reversing from a 13-day-old horizontal resistance surrounding 148.80-90. The pullback move also justifies the upbeat RSI and bearish MACD signals. With this, the Yen pair is likely to decline further toward the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of nearly 146.60. However, the 100-EMA of 146.20 and the monthly low of 145.90 will challenge the sellers afterward, suggesting another U-turn in the price. In doing so, the quote manages a fortnight-long trading range that consolidates the pair’s gains marked since late December.
Meanwhile, USDJPY buyers remain off the table unless they witness a daily closing beyond the aforementioned horizontal resistance of around 148.80-90. Even so, the late November 2023 swing high of around 149.80 and the 150.00 threshold will test the Yen pair’s upside moves. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 150.00, the odds of witnessing the quote’s run-up toward the previous yearly high of around 151.90 can’t be ignored.
Overall, USDJPY remains in the bullish consolidation mode and hence likely witnessing further downside. However, the yields and the US Dollar moves are telling a different story and may test the sellers, which in turn requires caution on the part of the pair traders.
SELL XAU/USD @ 2031 With objective of 2017 Nose Dive.Today we are short on Gold, The Friday selling impulse after the NFP data should continue today, And looking to match our targets of 2017 soon in the US session.
The second wave was a reversal of that after the Friday jobs data, in which bonds were sold off heavily in the aftermath. That led to 10-year Treasury yields rising back above the 4% mark:
EURUSD slides beneath key support as Fed’s Powell defends hawksEURUSD dropped to the lowest level in two months after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell firmly pushed back the March rate cut. The same allowed the Euro pair to keep the previous day’s downside break of a 1.0810 support confluence comprising the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a four-month-old rising trend line. Additionally keeping the sellers hopeful are the bearish MACD signals. However, the below 50.0 level of the RSI (14) line raises doubts about the downside momentum and hence the bears need validation from December’s low of around 1.0720 to tighten the grips. Following that, October’s high of 1.0695 and early November swing low surrounding 1.0655 will be in the spotlight.
Alternatively, the EURUSD rebound needs acceptance from the support-turned-resistance confluence of around 1.0810 and the US ISM Services PMI. Even so, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0875 at the latest, quickly followed by the 1.0900 threshold, will act as the final defense of the Euro sellers before giving control to the bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s successful trading above 1.0900 enables the buyers to aim for the 1.1000 psychological magnet and November’s peak near 1.1020.
Overall, EURUSD teases bears on hawkish Fed concerns but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
EURUSD tests falling wedge ahead of Eurozone GDPEURUSD stays pressured within a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation as the pair traders await the first readings of German and the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2024 early Tuesday. In doing so, the quote fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off the stated pattern’s bottom line while portraying a third consecutive weekly loss so far. It’s worth noting, however, that the recently downbeat RSI and MACD signals suggest weakness in the bearish trend and hence a quick run-up on the upbeat prints of GDP can’t be ruled out. In that case, the previous support line stretched from early November, now resistance around 1.0880, will restrict the immediate upside of the Euro pair. Following that, the falling wedge’s top line surrounding 1.0900 and the 200-SMA level of 1.0935 will be crucial to watch as the final battle points for the bears before giving control to the buyers.
Alternatively, the aforementioned wedge’s lower line of around 1.0800 puts a floor under the EURUSD price. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near 1.0760, will precede the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.0650 to act as the last defense of the pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0650, the pair’s lows marked in November and October, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0450, will lure the sellers.
To sum up, EURUSD portrays a bullish chart formation ahead of the bloc’s key growth data.
EURUSD fades bounce off 11-week-old support on ECB dayWith the US Dollar’s failure to cheer upbeat PMI details, the EURUSD pair managed to rebound from an upward-sloping support line from early November, especially when the activity data from Germany and the Eurozone came in positive. The recovery moves, however, failed to cross the 50-SMA hurdle on a daily closing basis and tease sellers ahead of the all-important monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). While the bloc’s central bank is likely to keep the monetary policy unchanged, the focus will be on the signals for future rate cuts as market players expect the first rate cut before June but the policymakers appeared hesitant for the same of late.
That said, any hawkish clues will allow the Euro pair to cross the immediate upside hurdle, namely the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 1.0920. However, the support-turned-resistance line stretched from November 01, close to 1.0985 at the latest, will precede the 1.1000 psychological magnet to challenge the pair buyers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, the downbeat RSI conditions and the limited odds of favoring the ECB hawks suggest further weakening of the pair. The same highlights the aforementioned nine-week-old ascending trend line support line, near 1.0830 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of 1.0820 and the previous monthly low of around 1.0720 will act as additional downside filters before a smooth sailing toward the late October swing high of near 1.0700.
USDJPY fades bounce off 100-SMA on BoJ status quoUSDJPY refreshed its intraday high to 148.55, before retreating to 148.00, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) matches market expectations of keeping the monetary policy unchanged. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to keep the late Monday’s recovery from the 100-SMA amid the inactive hours of Tuesday’s trading. It’s worth noting that the hawkish expectations from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech and the US Dollar’s consolidation join the nearly overbought RSI conditions to challenge the pair buyers. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and bottom line of a one-month-old bullish trend channel, around 147.55-45, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Should the quote drop below 147.45, it becomes vulnerable to test 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s July-November upside, near 146.40, ahead of revisiting the mid-December peak of around 145.00.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s recovery needs to surpass Friday’s peak of around 148.80 to activate fresh buying. Following that, the 150.00 round figure and the top line of the aforementioned bullish channel, close to 150.50 at the latest, will test the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 150.50, the previous yearly high marked in November at around 151.90 will be in the spotlight.
To sum up, the BoJ inaction failed to keep the Yen pair buyers on the board as policymakers in Japan appear fed up with the ultra-easy monetary policy.
XAU/USD is clearly bearing after fed affirmation of possible cutToday we can look for sell opportunities around 2031 , For a target of 2009- 2002 , Market has turned bearish yesterday after announcement of the following.
Fed's Waller: Data in the last few months allowing Fed to consider cutting rates this year
Waller Q&A: It will be up to committee on timing of when to start cuts
Also the technical indicators, H4 & D1 charts suggesting further bearish momentum throughout the day. Stops should be above 2042.00
USDCAD jumps to one-month high ahead of Canada inflationUSDCAD rises for the fourth consecutive day while poking the 200-SMA as the pair traders await Canadian inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI. It’s worth noting that the firmer RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals favor the latest bull run. Adding strength to the upside bias is the daily closing beyond the previous resistance line stretched from early November. However, the RSI line is approaching the overbought territory and hence suggests a limited upside room for the quote. As a result, the 200-SMA level of 1.3480 appears a tough nut to crack for the Loonie pair buyers, a break of which will open doors for the quote’s quick run-up toward the previous monthly high of around 1.3620.
Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the resistance-turned-support line of around 1.3400. Should the Loonie pair remain bearish past 1.3400 and gain support from upbeat Canada inflation data, its further declines toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July-November upside, near 1.3260, followed by the previous monthly low of around 1.3180, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting, however, that the year 2023 low marked in July near 1.3090 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet appears as the last defense of the pair buyers.
Overall, the USDCAD pair secures its place on the bull’s radar ahead of the key Canada data.
USDJPY extends pullback from key EMA confluence below 144.00USDJPY drops half a percent to 143.55 during the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair extends Friday’s retreats from a convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-EMA. Adding strength to the downside pressure is the Doji candlestick on the top and the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line, not to forget the sluggish MACD. With this, the sellers appear set to approach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-November upside, near 142.90. Following that, the previous monthly low and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 140.40 and the 140.00 threshold will challenge the bears before directing them to the mid-2023 bottom surrounding 137.35.
On the flip side, the aforementioned EMA convergence stops the USDJPY buyers’ entry near 145.50-60. Also acting as a short-term upside filter is the stated Doji candlestick’s peak of around 146.00. In a case where the Yen pair manages to stay firmer past 146.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of near 148.40 will act as the final defense of the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct buyers toward the previous yearly peak of 151.90.
Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to extend the latest downside, at least until Wednesday’s US inflation data comes out.
EURUSD licks its wounds at fortnight-low ahead of Fed MinutesEURUSD dropped the most in three weeks on Tuesday after a downside break of an ascending trend line from mid-November and the 50-SMA. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) line joins the 100-SMA support of 1.0935 to restrict short-term declines of the Euro pair. Even if the pair slides beneath 1.0935, the bottom line of a two-month-long bullish channel, close to 1.0840 at the latest, acts as the last defense of the pair buyers. Following that, the bears will be able to aim for the previous monthly low surrounding 1.0725.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s recovery hinges on the quote’s ability to stay beyond the 1.1020-25 resistance confluence comprising the 50-SMA and previous support line stretched from December 18. In a case where the Euro bulls keep the reins past 1.1025, the previous monthly high near 1.1140 and the aforementioned channel’s top line, around 1.1160 by the press time, will gain the market’s attention ahead of the year 2023 peak surrounding 1.1275.
Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to recover unless the Fed Minutes bolster the US Dollar strength, which is least expected. It’s worth noting, however, that the upside room appears limited.
Gold price fades upside momentum within bullish channelGold price snaps a three-day winning streak within a fortnight-old rising trend channel while positing mild losses near $2,065 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the overbought RSI (14) line and the sluggish MACD signals. However, the pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the $2,042-41 support confluence comprising the stated channel’s bottom line, 50-SMA and the early month’s peak. Following that, a quick fall toward the $2,000 psychological magnet appears imminent while the monthly low surrounding the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near $1,977, will restrict the quote’s further downside. In a case where the bullion sellers keep control past $1,977, the previous monthly low of around $1,930 will be on their radars.
Meanwhile, the previously stated bullish channel’s top line, close to $2,080 at the latest, challenges the Gold buyer’s re-entry ahead of the $2,100 round figure. It should be noted that the overbought RSI and sluggish MACD will join the $2,100 to offer a tough fight to the bulls afterward. However, the metal’s successful trading beyond the $2,100 will allow the XAUUSD bulls to cross the latest peak surrounding $2,150 while aiming for the $2,200 threshold.
Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam and hence allow the XAUUSD to retreat. Even so, the precious metal’s bullish trend remains intact.
GBPUSD retreats within bullish pennant amid dicey marketsGBPUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly gains as bulls lack incentive amid Christmas and Boxing Day holidays in the UK. As a result, the Cable pair eases within a two-week-old bullish pennant. However, the upbeat RSI (14), not overbought, joins the bullish MACD signals to highlight the 1.2630 support confluence comprising 100-SMA and the stated pennant’s bottom line. Even if the quote defies the bullish chart pattern by breaking the 1.2630 key support, an ascending trend line from early November, around the 1.2600 threshold, precedes the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2545 to restrict the Pound Sterling pair’s further downside. Following that, the monthly low of around 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears.
Meanwhile, GBPUSD pair’s further upside needs validation from the bullish pennant formation, by successfully crossing the 1.2740 resistance. Also likely to challenge the Cable pair buyers is the latest peak of near 1.2800, as well as an ascending resistance line stretched from late November, close to 1.2830 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading beyond 1.2830 allows the buyers to aim for the 1.3000 psychological magnet and then the yearly peak of near 1.3145.
Overall, the GBPUSD bulls can ignore the latest pullback in the quote unless the price slips beneath 1.2500.
AUD/CADIMO my overall bias in this pair remains bearish
- It is currently getting rejected from a valued-based supply which shows more bearish behaviour and reaction
- Retracement is all I expect, however the market can always prove me and my analysis wrong no denial
- Longs can wait for the value zone to be tapped wait for the price on a HTF to build a bigger base and wait for a huge reaction post the consolidation base
Today's gold trading ideaToday, gold on the D1 stochastic chart has fallen sharply and the histogram has begun to shorten. Yesterday, gold formed a marubozu candle. It is likely that today's candle will be a bullish candle. On the weekly chart, stochastic has in the overbought area and starting to show signs of decline, so today we will BUY 1969-1970 and cut short loss at 1967, we will SELL at 1980-1981 and cut loss at 1984 because if gold breaks those 2 stop loss points, then Gold can fall sharply or increase sharply, but if gold falls in 1970-1969, we will cancel the BUY order in 1980-1981 because gold will probably increase strongly again.
DXY: The trend I predict todayLast week, the DXY Index fell below the 106 mark, then continued to fall to the 105.50-105 range. In the short term, the risk of a trend reversal will only appear if the DXY index slips below 105. The decline is driven by the Fed's dovish stance and that will likely cause the greenback to decline. at least for a short while.
GOLD: Gold technical analysis todayYesterday, the D1 gold frame created a spinning candle, it can be seen that the dispute between buyers and sellers is taking place very fiercely. Today there will be very important news about the USD and these nonframe payrolls news will have a very strong impact. big enough to be golden. Yesterday the SPDR fund did not trade and it is possible that they are waiting for news today to buy or sell. The H4 stochastic indicator is going up even though the histogram is growing negative for a very short time. On the daily chart, the stochastic is trending down and the histogram is also getting lower, showing that the buying impulse has begun to weaken. According to today's technical analysis, gold will continue sideways in the range of 1990-1983 and we should close our orders before the news happens.
XAUUSD facing resistance on Fib Golden zoneAs you can see that during this decline cycle gold price faced resistance on golden fib zone previously 2 times on daily time frame,
current price is also trading under this golden zone for current retracement phase , watch this zone carefully if daily candle close above this then we can expect good bullish move but if the price failed again to break above this then we can expect another down move .
EURUSD - Selling OpportunityEURUSD - Selling Opportunity.
Timeframe analysis: 1H.
Selling opportunity in the EURUSD pair after a multi-timeframe analysis revealed the following convergences:
- 4H: Fast-moving average acting as resistance.
- 1H: Slow-moving average acting as resistance.
- 15min: Fibonacci level (-0.236) acting as a point of exhaustion of the bullish momentum (pullback), thus indicating a potential bearish continuation.
In terms of risk management:
- Take Profit: Level 1 will be set at the last trend's low. Level 2 will be positioned at the -0.236 Fibonacci level, this time applied to the larger bearish trend.
- Stop Loss: 0.5 Fibonacci level of the bearish trend. (🇮🇳)