Forex-trading
XAU/USD is clearly bearing after fed affirmation of possible cutToday we can look for sell opportunities around 2031 , For a target of 2009- 2002 , Market has turned bearish yesterday after announcement of the following.
Fed's Waller: Data in the last few months allowing Fed to consider cutting rates this year
Waller Q&A: It will be up to committee on timing of when to start cuts
Also the technical indicators, H4 & D1 charts suggesting further bearish momentum throughout the day. Stops should be above 2042.00
USDCAD jumps to one-month high ahead of Canada inflationUSDCAD rises for the fourth consecutive day while poking the 200-SMA as the pair traders await Canadian inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) CPI. It’s worth noting that the firmer RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals favor the latest bull run. Adding strength to the upside bias is the daily closing beyond the previous resistance line stretched from early November. However, the RSI line is approaching the overbought territory and hence suggests a limited upside room for the quote. As a result, the 200-SMA level of 1.3480 appears a tough nut to crack for the Loonie pair buyers, a break of which will open doors for the quote’s quick run-up toward the previous monthly high of around 1.3620.
Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the resistance-turned-support line of around 1.3400. Should the Loonie pair remain bearish past 1.3400 and gain support from upbeat Canada inflation data, its further declines toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the July-November upside, near 1.3260, followed by the previous monthly low of around 1.3180, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting, however, that the year 2023 low marked in July near 1.3090 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet appears as the last defense of the pair buyers.
Overall, the USDCAD pair secures its place on the bull’s radar ahead of the key Canada data.
USDJPY extends pullback from key EMA confluence below 144.00USDJPY drops half a percent to 143.55 during the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Yen pair extends Friday’s retreats from a convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-EMA. Adding strength to the downside pressure is the Doji candlestick on the top and the absence of an oversold RSI (14) line, not to forget the sluggish MACD. With this, the sellers appear set to approach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-November upside, near 142.90. Following that, the previous monthly low and the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio around 140.40 and the 140.00 threshold will challenge the bears before directing them to the mid-2023 bottom surrounding 137.35.
On the flip side, the aforementioned EMA convergence stops the USDJPY buyers’ entry near 145.50-60. Also acting as a short-term upside filter is the stated Doji candlestick’s peak of around 146.00. In a case where the Yen pair manages to stay firmer past 146.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of near 148.40 will act as the final defense of the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct buyers toward the previous yearly peak of 151.90.
Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to extend the latest downside, at least until Wednesday’s US inflation data comes out.
EURUSD licks its wounds at fortnight-low ahead of Fed MinutesEURUSD dropped the most in three weeks on Tuesday after a downside break of an ascending trend line from mid-November and the 50-SMA. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) line joins the 100-SMA support of 1.0935 to restrict short-term declines of the Euro pair. Even if the pair slides beneath 1.0935, the bottom line of a two-month-long bullish channel, close to 1.0840 at the latest, acts as the last defense of the pair buyers. Following that, the bears will be able to aim for the previous monthly low surrounding 1.0725.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair’s recovery hinges on the quote’s ability to stay beyond the 1.1020-25 resistance confluence comprising the 50-SMA and previous support line stretched from December 18. In a case where the Euro bulls keep the reins past 1.1025, the previous monthly high near 1.1140 and the aforementioned channel’s top line, around 1.1160 by the press time, will gain the market’s attention ahead of the year 2023 peak surrounding 1.1275.
Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to recover unless the Fed Minutes bolster the US Dollar strength, which is least expected. It’s worth noting, however, that the upside room appears limited.
Gold price fades upside momentum within bullish channelGold price snaps a three-day winning streak within a fortnight-old rising trend channel while positing mild losses near $2,065 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the overbought RSI (14) line and the sluggish MACD signals. However, the pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the $2,042-41 support confluence comprising the stated channel’s bottom line, 50-SMA and the early month’s peak. Following that, a quick fall toward the $2,000 psychological magnet appears imminent while the monthly low surrounding the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near $1,977, will restrict the quote’s further downside. In a case where the bullion sellers keep control past $1,977, the previous monthly low of around $1,930 will be on their radars.
Meanwhile, the previously stated bullish channel’s top line, close to $2,080 at the latest, challenges the Gold buyer’s re-entry ahead of the $2,100 round figure. It should be noted that the overbought RSI and sluggish MACD will join the $2,100 to offer a tough fight to the bulls afterward. However, the metal’s successful trading beyond the $2,100 will allow the XAUUSD bulls to cross the latest peak surrounding $2,150 while aiming for the $2,200 threshold.
Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam and hence allow the XAUUSD to retreat. Even so, the precious metal’s bullish trend remains intact.
GBPUSD retreats within bullish pennant amid dicey marketsGBPUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly gains as bulls lack incentive amid Christmas and Boxing Day holidays in the UK. As a result, the Cable pair eases within a two-week-old bullish pennant. However, the upbeat RSI (14), not overbought, joins the bullish MACD signals to highlight the 1.2630 support confluence comprising 100-SMA and the stated pennant’s bottom line. Even if the quote defies the bullish chart pattern by breaking the 1.2630 key support, an ascending trend line from early November, around the 1.2600 threshold, precedes the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2545 to restrict the Pound Sterling pair’s further downside. Following that, the monthly low of around 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears.
Meanwhile, GBPUSD pair’s further upside needs validation from the bullish pennant formation, by successfully crossing the 1.2740 resistance. Also likely to challenge the Cable pair buyers is the latest peak of near 1.2800, as well as an ascending resistance line stretched from late November, close to 1.2830 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading beyond 1.2830 allows the buyers to aim for the 1.3000 psychological magnet and then the yearly peak of near 1.3145.
Overall, the GBPUSD bulls can ignore the latest pullback in the quote unless the price slips beneath 1.2500.
AUD/CADIMO my overall bias in this pair remains bearish
- It is currently getting rejected from a valued-based supply which shows more bearish behaviour and reaction
- Retracement is all I expect, however the market can always prove me and my analysis wrong no denial
- Longs can wait for the value zone to be tapped wait for the price on a HTF to build a bigger base and wait for a huge reaction post the consolidation base
Today's gold trading ideaToday, gold on the D1 stochastic chart has fallen sharply and the histogram has begun to shorten. Yesterday, gold formed a marubozu candle. It is likely that today's candle will be a bullish candle. On the weekly chart, stochastic has in the overbought area and starting to show signs of decline, so today we will BUY 1969-1970 and cut short loss at 1967, we will SELL at 1980-1981 and cut loss at 1984 because if gold breaks those 2 stop loss points, then Gold can fall sharply or increase sharply, but if gold falls in 1970-1969, we will cancel the BUY order in 1980-1981 because gold will probably increase strongly again.
DXY: The trend I predict todayLast week, the DXY Index fell below the 106 mark, then continued to fall to the 105.50-105 range. In the short term, the risk of a trend reversal will only appear if the DXY index slips below 105. The decline is driven by the Fed's dovish stance and that will likely cause the greenback to decline. at least for a short while.
GOLD: Gold technical analysis todayYesterday, the D1 gold frame created a spinning candle, it can be seen that the dispute between buyers and sellers is taking place very fiercely. Today there will be very important news about the USD and these nonframe payrolls news will have a very strong impact. big enough to be golden. Yesterday the SPDR fund did not trade and it is possible that they are waiting for news today to buy or sell. The H4 stochastic indicator is going up even though the histogram is growing negative for a very short time. On the daily chart, the stochastic is trending down and the histogram is also getting lower, showing that the buying impulse has begun to weaken. According to today's technical analysis, gold will continue sideways in the range of 1990-1983 and we should close our orders before the news happens.
XAUUSD facing resistance on Fib Golden zoneAs you can see that during this decline cycle gold price faced resistance on golden fib zone previously 2 times on daily time frame,
current price is also trading under this golden zone for current retracement phase , watch this zone carefully if daily candle close above this then we can expect good bullish move but if the price failed again to break above this then we can expect another down move .
EURUSD - Selling OpportunityEURUSD - Selling Opportunity.
Timeframe analysis: 1H.
Selling opportunity in the EURUSD pair after a multi-timeframe analysis revealed the following convergences:
- 4H: Fast-moving average acting as resistance.
- 1H: Slow-moving average acting as resistance.
- 15min: Fibonacci level (-0.236) acting as a point of exhaustion of the bullish momentum (pullback), thus indicating a potential bearish continuation.
In terms of risk management:
- Take Profit: Level 1 will be set at the last trend's low. Level 2 will be positioned at the -0.236 Fibonacci level, this time applied to the larger bearish trend.
- Stop Loss: 0.5 Fibonacci level of the bearish trend. (🇮🇳)
XAUUSD ,Printed Good Bullish Move...Now what? In Yesterday's trading session, we have seen big bullish spike /short squeeze(correction +Retailer Squeeze + Near to expiry PCR)and gold printed a healthy bullish candle which covered almost 5-session decline.
On the price action note now the main task for bears is to breakdown the daily pivot as bulls now defending daily pivot successfully from last 3 trading day .So if they are able to breakdown the daily pivot then we can expect a decline otherwise now bulls are in good control right now.
For bears the main level to watch is 1925,above this bulls can make another bullish move.
XAUUSD Intra Day Levels Gold Price is still under bearish pressure and bulls are trying hard to break out the 1900 psychological level
in bottomside 1985 is holding well on intraday TF.
If you looking for a sell opportunity then for a Good decline wait it to break down the recent low or wait for rejection on High Volume areas.
Buying is still Limited for scalping only.