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XAUUSD: Weak Bounce, Sellers Still Control XAUUSD: Weak Bounce, Sellers Still Control
Market Context
Gold is attracting some buyers in the Asian session, but the rebound still looks limited. The US Dollar has paused after a two-day recovery, while traders are waiting for the US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension and expectations that the Fed may keep a restrictive policy tone continue to support the USD. This can limit upside momentum for gold, even if price creates a short-term bounce.
The main story is simple: gold is bouncing, but the structure is still weak. Buyers need more than one reaction candle to prove control.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,015 after clearing the weak low and rebounding slightly. The short-term move shows a reaction from the lower area, but the broader structure still leans bearish.
The nearest support is around 3,959 - 3,990. If this area holds, gold may continue a technical rebound toward the FVG rebalance zone around 4,060 - 4,080.
Above that, the 4,100 - 4,120 area is the internal liquidity zone. This is where sellers may start reacting again if the rebound loses momentum.
The stronger resistance remains higher at the Main Sell POI and Premium Supply area around 4,160 - 4,200. As long as price stays below this zone, the recovery should still be treated as corrective.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,015
Near Support: 3,959 - 3,990
FVG Rebalance Zone: 4,060 - 4,080
Internal Liquidity: 4,100 - 4,120
Main Sell POI: 4,160 - 4,180
Premium Supply: 4,180 - 4,200
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,120
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,959
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Technical Rebound
Entry: Above 4,020 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,990
TP1: 4,060
TP2: 4,080
TP3: 4,100
Conditions: Price must hold above the weak low area, reclaim 4,020 with strength, and form a clear bullish reaction on the lower timeframe. This is only a corrective rebound setup, not a full trend reversal.
Sell Scenario: Rejection From FVG
Entry: 4,060 - 4,080 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,100
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 3,990
TP3: 3,959
Conditions: Price rebounds into the FVG rebalance zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Internal Liquidity
Entry: 4,100 - 4,120 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,140
TP1: 4,080
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 3,990
Conditions: Price sweeps into internal liquidity but cannot hold above 4,120. Strong rejection from this area would confirm that sellers are still defending the short-term bearish structure.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,959 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 3,990
TP1: 3,930
TP2: 3,900
TP3: 3,880
Conditions: Price loses the lower support zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the small rebound has failed and gold may extend toward deeper demand.
Overall Bias
Gold is showing a short-term bounce, but the main structure remains weak. The rebound can continue toward 4,060 - 4,080, but buyers still need to reclaim 4,100 - 4,120 to shift the tone.
If price rejects from the FVG or internal liquidity zone, sellers may push gold back toward 3,990 and 3,959. A break below 3,959 would open the door for a deeper downside move.
Best approach: wait for confirmation. Do not chase the bounce while gold remains below the main sell zones.
Will gold reclaim 4,120, or will sellers use this bounce to continue the decline?
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XAUUSD 4023 retest — 3972 still calling XAUUSD 4023 retest — 3972 still calling
That bounce back above 4,000 looks nice for a second.
But yeah. I’m not buying the whole story yet.
Gold dumped hard from the 4,100 zone, broke the short-term channel, then kept sliding under the EMA stack. That is pressure. No need to overcomplicate it.
The small recovery from 3,990 is just a reaction from the low for now. Price is still trading below 4,023, below 4,052, below 4,074, and under the bigger 4,088 area. That whole EMA cluster is sitting above price like a ceiling.
Macro also isn’t clean for bulls. USD only paused after a strong run. Oil and inflation worries are still around. Fed expectations still lean heavy. So gold gets a bounce, sure. But upside looks capped unless buyers reclaim structure properly.
Main bias stays bearish while price holds below 4,052 - 4,074.
The zone I’m watching is 4,023 first. If gold retests there and fails, sellers can hit it again. Below 4,000, the next draw is the discount zone around 3,972 - 3,962. That area makes sense for the next liquidity grab.
Trading scenario:
Sell idea only if price rejects 4,023 - 4,052 or breaks back below 4,000 with clean pressure.
Entry zone: 4,023 - 4,052 after rejection
Alternative entry: below 4,000 after breakdown confirmation
Stop loss: above 4,074
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 3,988
TP3: 3,972 - 3,962
No rejection, no chase.
If gold closes back above 4,074 and holds, this short idea gets messy. Above 4,088, sellers lose control for now.
Until then, this still looks like a weak bounce into resistance.
You selling the retest, or waiting for 4,000 to snap again?
Short
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XAUUSD — 4,092 Broke the Door XAUUSD — 4,092 Broke the Door
Gold started the new week with that heavy feeling again, like Friday’s recovery never really convinced the market.
Price tried to breathe above the lower FVG, but once it failed to hold around 4,092.295, the chart started telling a different story. That level was not just a random line. It was the area buyers needed to protect if the short-term recovery wanted to stay alive. Instead, gold slipped back below it, and now price is pressing into the lower imbalance zone around 4,040 - 4,060.
For newer traders, this is where the structure becomes important. When price returns into an FVG but cannot bounce strongly, that zone can stop looking like demand and start acting like a weak floor. The market taps it, pauses for a moment, then if buyers do not show real strength, sellers often use that pause to continue hunting lower liquidity.
That is why my main view is bearish while gold stays below 4,092.295. The wider backdrop also supports pressure, with price still trading under the short-term moving average and momentum readings not showing strong buyer control yet. Add the stronger USD reaction and renewed geopolitical tension, and the chart has a reason to keep selling rallies instead of trusting every bounce.
The next area I am watching is 4,021.815. If gold reaches that level and only gives a weak reaction, the bigger downside magnet becomes 3,942.100, where deeper sell-side liquidity is still waiting.
This bearish idea only becomes weaker if gold can reclaim 4,092.295 and then push back above the upper FVG around 4,130 - 4,140. Until then, I see the market as hunting lower, not recovering cleanly.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,040 - 4,060
Main supply / failed recovery zone: 4,092.295
Bearish confirmation zone: clean hold below 4,092.295
First downside liquidity target: 4,021.815
Main downside liquidity target: 3,942.100
Upper FVG resistance: 4,130 - 4,140
Major upside liquidity: 4,202.705
Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,140
Do you think gold breaks straight toward 4,021, or does it fake one more bounce into the FVG before sellers return?
Short 
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XAUUSD: Bearish Elliott Wave Indicates Fibonacci TargetsGold is moving under renewed downside pressure after failing to hold the recovery structure above the 4,100 area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that a bearish Elliott wave sequence is developing, and price may continue lower if the sell zone remains defended.
The key idea is simple: gold is still weak below resistance, and the next downside targets are now guided by the Fibonacci structure.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold rejected from the upper recovery area and started forming lower highs again. Price is now trading near 4,055, directly under the sell wave 5 zone, which makes this area very important for the next reaction.
The nearest resistance sits around 4,055–4,060. If gold cannot reclaim this zone with strength, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure.
Below current price, the chart highlights the 4,015–4,025 area as the next wave 4 reaction zone. If that support fails, the larger Elliott Wave End area around 3,950–3,960 becomes the main downside target.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,055–4,060: sell wave 5 zone and current resistance
◌ 4,015–4,025: buy zone wave 4 / first downside reaction area
◌ 3,950–3,960: Elliott Wave End and Fibonacci 2.618 target zone
◌ 4,090–4,105: upper resistance if price rebounds
◌ Above 4,105: area where the bearish wave count weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bearish 5-wave structure after completing the previous corrective rebound.
Wave 1 created the first downside move from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected upward but failed to continue higher.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger momentum.
Wave 4 may form around 4,015–4,025 as a temporary reaction.
If the sell wave 5 zone continues to hold, wave 5 may extend towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target near 3,950–3,960.
This is why Kelly would treat the current rebound carefully. As long as price remains below resistance, the structure still favours a continuation lower.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,055–4,060 sell zone before expecting downside continuation.
Sell zone: 4,055–4,060 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,105 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015–4,025
Take profit 2: 3,980
Take profit 3: 3,950–3,960
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,105 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish Elliott setup weakens. In that case, price may need to rebuild a new structure before the next direction becomes clearer.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a bearish Elliott structure. Gold has not shown enough strength to confirm a bullish reversal, and the market is now reacting under an important sell zone.
The cleanest plan is to follow the Fibonacci roadmap and wait for confirmation from resistance.
Gold remains under pressure.
If the sell zone holds, the next bearish wave may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below.
Share your view below. Short 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD RECLAIMING FROM LOWER VALUE BEFORE CPI BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD RECLAIMING FROM LOWER VALUE BEFORE CPI
Gold is starting to recover from the lower value area after reacting around the buyside liquidity zone near 3,995 - 4,002. The move is not strong enough to confirm a full reversal yet, but price is no longer trading with clean downside continuation.
Today’s CPI release can become the main trigger for the next move. Headline inflation is expected to soften due to lower gasoline prices, but the real focus will be on core CPI. That number matters more because it shows whether underlying inflation is still sticky.
At the same time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first official monetary policy testimony may influence rate expectations and short-term USD direction. For gold, this creates a clear risk event: price can expand quickly once the market receives confirmation.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold has reacted from the lower liquidity base and is now pushing back towards the POC Reclaim Zone around 4,055 - 4,060.
This is the key area I am watching. If price breaks and holds above this zone, buyers can start to rebuild acceptance and open the path towards the golden peak of last week near 4,137.
However, if gold fails at the POC Reclaim Zone, the rebound remains weak and price may rotate back towards the buyside liquidity area.
Important zones
Buyside liquidity: 3,995 - 4,002
Lower reaction zone where buyers stepped in.
POC Reclaim Zone: 4,055 - 4,060
Main value area buyers need to reclaim.
The golden peak of last week: 4,137
Next upside target if price accepts above POC.
Weekly High Resistance: 4,175 - 4,180
Major resistance if CPI triggers stronger bullish momentum.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction after POC reclaim 4,055 - 4,060
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price breaks and holds above 4,055 - 4,060, then retests this zone with clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the POC Reclaim Zone or below the local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,100
TP2: 4,137
TP3: 4,175 - 4,180 if CPI supports further upside
This setup is based on gold reclaiming value after reacting from lower liquidity. Without acceptance above the POC zone, the buy setup remains incomplete.
Final view
Gold is trying to recover before CPI, but the real confirmation is still at 4,055 - 4,060.
If buyers reclaim this POC zone, gold can continue towards 4,137 and possibly 4,175.
If price fails there, the market can rotate back towards 4,000 and the rebound becomes only a weak reaction from liquidity.
Today is not the day to chase candles. Let CPI confirm direction. Let price reclaim value. Then trade the reaction.
Long 
XAUUSD – Gold Rebounds After CPI, But Still Needs Confirmation XAUUSD – Gold Rebounds After CPI, But Still Needs Confirmation
Gold is reacting positively after softer CPI data, but price is still at a key decision zone.
Currently trading around 4,026, gold bounced strongly from the lower liquidity area, showing buyers are stepping in. However, the move is now testing resistance and FVG, so confirmation is still needed.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Softer CPI supports gold by easing rate hike expectations. However, one report is not enough to shift the broader outlook. Traders will continue watching Fed signals, USD, and bond yields.
For now, CPI gives short-term support, but not a full trend change.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
Gold swept liquidity below and reacted strongly from demand, showing seller weakness.
Key support is 4,014 – 4,024. If price holds above this zone, recovery can continue toward resistance.
Resistance levels:
4,040 – 4,055
4,055 – 4,080
4,100
If price breaks below 4,014, gold may drop back to 3,985 – 3,995.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,026
Support: 4,014 – 4,024
Lower zone: 3,985 – 3,995
Resistance: 4,040 – 4,055
FVG: 4,055 – 4,080
Target: 4,100
Bearish below: 4,014
Invalidation: Below 3,985
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,014 – 4,024
Entry: Bullish reaction or CHoCH
SL: Below 4,014
TP1: 4,040 – 4,055
TP2: 4,080
TP3: 4,100
Breakout Buy
Above 4,055 → Target 4,080 – 4,100
Sell Scenario
Sell below 4,014 after confirmation
TP1: 3,995
TP2: 3,985
Invalidation: Reclaim 4,014 – 4,024
MY VIEW
Gold is recovering after CPI, but structure confirmation is still needed.
If 4,014 – 4,024 holds, price can move higher toward 4,055 and 4,100.
If not, the bounce may fade and price could return to lower liquidity.
Gold is recovering — but support must hold.
Do you think gold will hold above 4,014 – 4,024 or drop back lower?
Long 
XAUUSD 4000 sweep — 4080 is the draw XAUUSD 4000 sweep — 4080 is the draw
That bounce from sub-4,000 is not random.
Gold got slammed through the channel, cleaned lows, then snapped back above the liquidity sweep zone around 3,992 - 4,000. Yeah, that looks like a seller trap to me.
But don’t get too excited yet.
Price is still fighting under the EMA stack. 4,045, 4,049, 4,064, then 4,080. That whole area is sitting above price like traffic. So this is not clean bullish continuation yet. It is a recovery setup from discount.
Macro helps a bit too. Softer US CPI gives gold some breathing room because traders start pricing a less aggressive Fed. USD paused after that. Makes sense. But tension around the US-Iran story and rate expectations can still keep upside capped. So I’m not calling for a straight moonshot here.
Main read is this: sweep low first, reclaim later.
If gold holds above 4,000 and starts reclaiming 4,045 - 4,050, then buyers can push into 4,064. Above that, 4,080 becomes the real draw. That’s where I expect the next fight.
Trading scenario:
Buy idea only if price holds the liquidity sweep zone around 3,992 - 4,000 and reclaims back above 4,045.
Entry zone: 4,000 - 4,023 after confirmation
Stop loss: below 3,985
TP1: 4,045
TP2: 4,064
TP3: 4,080 - 4,088
No reclaim, no buy. Don’t chase the bounce in the middle.
If gold breaks hard below 3,985, this trap idea is dead. Then sellers can drag it back toward 3,972 and maybe lower.
For now, I’m watching the 4,000 sweep hold.
You think sellers got trapped here, or does gold need one more low first?
Long 
Gold Structure stays bearishWhere we are: Gold is at 4,030, down about 0.5% on the day, sitting right on the daily support at 3,999 and inside the bottom of the weekly demand shelf.
The inflation report was softer than expected across every line. Core MoM printed 0% against a 0.2% forecast. Core YoY came in at 2.6% versus 2.8% expected. Headline MoM was -0.4% and headline YoY dropped to 3.5% from 4.2%. That is a clean disinflation print. On paper that is fuel for gold.
Gold sold off instead. When a market gets the news it wanted and still falls, that tells you sellers are in control regardless of the story. That is not a small detail. It means the bounce we were watching for off the demand shelf did not get the follow-through it needed, even with the perfect setup handed to it.
Intermarket
The macro read got worse again. The driver split is now 100% bearish, 0% bullish, 0% neutral. Every single driver on the panel is against gold. Real yields at 2.36% and rising, dollar at 100.82 and rising, breakevens falling, gold/silver rising, miners underperforming, gold in euro terms falling, and gold versus the S&P falling. There is nothing left on the bull side of the ledger.
That is the answer to why soft CPI did not help. Yields and the dollar did not care. Until those two turn, gold is swimming against the current no matter what the inflation data says. The only mild positive left is the forward 20-bar probability at 51.8%, which is basically a coin flip.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, lower high and lower low. Resistance sits far above at 4,180 and support is right here at 3,999, less than 1% away. Price is inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, but it is now leaning on the lower half of it rather than bouncing from the top.
The trendline chart is the one worth studying today. Price is sitting right on the long-term rising support line that has held since the move started, and it has already touched it nine times. Above it, the descending resistance line from the February high keeps capping every rally. Those two lines are closing in on each other, and price is being squeezed between them. A trendline tested nine times is not a strong line, it is a tired one. Each touch takes a little more out of it.
H4
Bearish structure, lower high and lower low. Resistance is now 4,076, only about 1% up, and support is 3,993. Look how that ceiling keeps dropping. Last week it was 4,120. Now it is 4,076. Lower resistance on every attempt is the market telling you sellers are getting more aggressive, not less.
Price is jammed under supply at 4,046 to 4,076, with more stacked at 4,096 to 4,131 and 4,178 to 4,195 above that. There is a small fresh demand zone right at 4,014 to 4,034 that price is standing on right now. That is the last shelf before 3,993.
The 4H multi-timeframe read is nearly all red: 15m, 4H, 1D, and 1W all bearish, with only the 1H holding a bullish lean. That single green box is the entire bull case right now.
Today's Data
PPI at 18:00 is forecast at 0%, cooling hard from a 1.1% prior. Another soft inflation reading. But watch what happens, because yesterday proved soft data alone is not enough to lift gold. If PPI comes in soft and gold still cannot rally, that is confirmation that sellers own this market and the demand shelf is likely to break.
Warsh testifies again at 19:30. If his tone leans firm on rates, the dollar and yields go up and gold has no cushion left.
Bottom Line
Gold got the soft CPI it needed and could not rally. That is the read of the week. The macro is 100% bearish, structure is bearish on every timeframe but one, resistance keeps stepping lower, and price is now leaning on the bottom of the weekly demand shelf instead of bouncing off the top.
The 3,999 to 3,884 zone is the last line, and it is looking weaker than it did on Monday. Lose 3,884 on a daily close and there is very little between here and the monthly demand at 3,453. That is a wide gap and the move can come fast.
For the bounce case, you now need more than a soft number. You need to see price reclaim 4,076, then 4,131, with real volume behind it. Until that happens, treat every push up into 4,046 to 4,076 as a place where sellers are waiting, with the descending trendline backing them up.
The plan: sellers have the evidence on their side, so rallies into supply are the cleaner trades. Longs need to wait for proof, not hope. XAUUSD: Breakout Started, But 4,061 Must Hold XAUUSD: Breakout Started, But 4,061 Must Hold
Market Context
Gold is recovering toward the 4,050 area after softer US inflation data increased expectations that the Fed may take a less hawkish stance. This gives buyers short-term support, especially as the US Dollar loses some pressure after the CPI release.
But the market is not fully bullish yet. Gold has broken out of the short-term downtrend channel, but a breakout alone is not enough. Buyers now need to hold structure and reclaim the next liquidity zone before the recovery becomes stronger.
The main story is simple: gold has escaped the downtrend channel, but 4,045 - 4,061 decides whether this becomes a real recovery or another failed bounce.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,039 after breaking out of the descending channel. The breakout is a positive sign, but the price has not yet confirmed a strong bullish continuation.
The short-term decision zone is 4,045 - 4,061. If buyers reclaim and hold this area, gold may extend toward the First Sell Reaction zone around 4,110 - 4,120.
The nearest support is the Buy Reaction Zone around 4,020 - 4,030. As long as this area holds, the short-term rebound remains valid.
If gold loses 4,020, the breakout becomes weak and price may retest the weak low area around 3,980 - 3,990. Above the market, the bigger resistance remains the Premium Supply zone around 4,150 - 4,180.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,039
Buy Reaction Zone: 4,020 - 4,030
Reaction Base: 4,045
Internal Liquidity: 4,061
First Sell Reaction: 4,110 - 4,120
Premium Supply: 4,150 - 4,180
Weak Low Area: 3,980 - 3,990
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,061
Bearish Risk: Below 4,020
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Breakout Continuation
Entry: Above 4,061 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,020
TP1: 4,080
TP2: 4,110
TP3: 4,120
Conditions: Price must reclaim 4,045 - 4,061 with strength, hold the retest, and continue forming higher lows. Buyers need to defend the 4,020 - 4,030 reaction zone. This setup is stronger if gold stays above the broken channel and does not fall back inside the old downtrend.
Buy Pullback Scenario
Entry: 4,020 - 4,030 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,990
TP1: 4,045
TP2: 4,061
TP3: 4,110
Conditions: Price pulls back into the Buy Reaction Zone and shows a clear bullish rejection. This is a support reaction setup, so confirmation is important. Avoid buying if price breaks below 4,020 with strong bearish momentum.
Sell Scenario: Failed Breakout
Entry: Below 4,020 after breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,045
TP1: 3,990
TP2: 3,980
TP3: 3,960
Conditions: Price loses the Buy Reaction Zone, retest fails, and bearish momentum returns. This would confirm that the channel breakout was weak and buyers failed to protect the recovery structure.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,110 - 4,120 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,150
TP1: 4,061
TP2: 4,045
TP3: 4,020
Conditions: Price reaches the First Sell Reaction zone but fails to continue higher. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again. This is a reaction sell only unless gold later breaks below 4,020.
Overall Bias
Gold has started to recover after breaking out of the short-term downtrend channel, supported by softer US inflation data and expectations of a less hawkish Fed.
However, the recovery still needs confirmation. The key area is 4,045 - 4,061. A clean hold above this zone can open the way toward 4,110 - 4,120. If gold loses 4,020, the breakout becomes weak and sellers may drag price back toward 3,980 - 3,990.
Best approach: wait for confirmation around 4,061 or a clean reaction from 4,020 - 4,030. Do not chase the breakout before buyers prove control.
Will buyers reclaim 4,061, or will this breakout turn into another trap?
Long 
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Core of Technical AnalysisCore of Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis is the study of past price movements, volume, and market trends to predict future price direction.
3 Main Principles:
Market Discounts Everything
All news, emotions, and fundamentals are already reflected in price.
Prices Move in Trends
Markets usually move in uptrend, downtrend, or sideways trends.
History Repeats Itself
Human psychology creates repeating chart patterns.
Key Tools:
Charts (Candlestick, Line, Bar)
Support & Resistance
Trendlines
Indicators (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages)
Volume Analysis
Patterns (Head & Shoulders, Double Top, Triangle) 
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Global Financial MarketsGlobal financial markets are systems where people, companies, and governments buy and sell financial assets across the world. They help move money from those who have extra funds to those who need funds.
Main Types of Global Financial Markets:
Stock Markets – Buying and selling shares of companies (e.g., NYSE, NSE).
Bond Markets – Governments and companies borrow money by issuing bonds.
Foreign Exchange (Forex) Markets – Trading currencies like USD, EUR, INR.
Commodity Markets – Trading gold, oil, wheat, etc.
Money Markets – Short-term borrowing and lending.
Derivatives Markets – Contracts based on assets like stocks or currencies.
Importance:
Provide funds for business growth
Support international trade
Create investment opportunities
Help manage financial risks
Affect global economies
Example:
If the US stock market falls sharply, markets in Asia and Europe may also be affected because markets are connected globally. 
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