Gold --> Interest in this metal is growingGold continues to hold strong as the dollar faces a correction, with liquidity gradually diminishing. Friday’s trading in the US could play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics.
On the H1 timeframe, gold remains firmly within the boundaries of a local bullish channel, driven by the dollar's weakness, which stems largely from the ongoing inflationary environment. Adding to this momentum, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance on interest rate policy continues to act as a tailwind for gold prices. However, this factor appears to be taking a backseat for now.
Meanwhile, the market spotlight is shifting toward the policies of the new US administration, which are expected to bring significant changes to the global economic landscape. These shifts could push central banks to bolster their gold reserves, potentially igniting a surge in central bank gold trading activity.
With the fundamentals aligning for a bullish trend—supported by an ascending channel and strong macroeconomic factors—buying opportunities dominate the strategy. Ideal entries lie around the support zone (aligned with FVG levels) or upon a confirmed breakout above the resistance level. Price targets? Gold's climb toward 2678 and 2694 is drawing closer, signaling an exciting rally ahead!
Forex
EUR/USD Unexpected DropThe EUR/USD currency pair has been showing significant volatility recently, with the current trend being bearish, as it has broken above both the 34 and 89 EMAs. This indicates an increase in selling pressure, with the current price at 1.05240, lower than the previous days, and approaching the important support level at 1.05000. Notably, there is also a gap on the chart, indicating a sudden interruption in trading, which is often a sign of sudden important news or events.
Personal opinion: In the current context, although the bearish trend may be worrying for many investors, I believe that this could also be an opportunity to buy at low prices if the euro starts to recover. The fact that the price is currently below both EMAs could further deepen the downtrend, but this could also lead to a strong recovery if there are supporting factors from economic data or from the policies of the European Central Bank.
How to Navigate Gold Investments in the Current Context?In recent days, gold prices have seen a significant decline, currently at $2,630/ounce, down to $18. This reflects clear pressure from investors as they see that US inflation is not yet "hot" enough to expect an early interest rate cut from the Fed, although the core personal spending index has increased by 2.8% over the past 12 months. In correlation with strong economic indicators and current geopolitical sentiment, gold may no longer be the safe haven it has always been.
Looking at the chart, it is clear that gold prices are struggling to maintain the important support level at $2,640, which was clearly broken in the recent trading session. Technical analysis shows that gold is trading below both the 34 EMA and the 89 EMA, which suggests that the short-term downtrend could continue. However, this also opens the door for a price recovery if there are unexpected positive economic signals.
My personal short-term view is that gold prices may continue to be under downward pressure. Stronger-than-expected US economic data and no signs of a change in the Fed's monetary policy are the main factors that are putting pressure. However, in the long term, I remain optimistic about the value of gold as a safe investment, especially in the context of central banks around the world such as Poland and Hungary actively buying gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold Trading Strategy for 02nd December 2024Gold Trading Strategy
Buying Strategy:
Buy Trigger: Initiate a buy order if the price closes above the high of the candlestick at 2661. This suggests a potential upward momentum.
Support Levels:
2632: A minor support level where the price might find temporary support.
2617: A stronger support level, indicating a possible reversal or consolidation zone.
2574: A major support level, suggesting a significant buying interest at this price.
Selling Strategy:
Sell Trigger: Initiate a sell order if the price closes below the low of the candlestick at 2646. This suggests a potential downward momentum.
Resistance Levels:
2682: A minor resistance level where the price might face temporary resistance.
2705: A stronger resistance level, indicating a possible reversal or consolidation zone.
2725: A major resistance level, suggesting significant selling interest at this price.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should perform your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Advanced Trading The intended reason that companies or investors use options contracts is as a hedge to offset or reduce their risk exposures and limit themselves from fluctuations in price. Because options traders can also use options to speculate on price or to sell insurance to hedgers, they can be risky if used in those ways.
In all, it is not gambling but is a type of speculation hence a government employee and PSU servants are not allowed to trade in options.
Data Option Trading with Professionals Options chain can be defined as the listing of all option contracts. It comes with two different sections: call and put. A call option means a contract that gives you the right but does not give you the obligation to buy an underlying asset at a particular price and within the option's expiration date.
While not foolproof, option chains offer insights into market sentiment through implied volatility and open interest. High implied volatility suggests expected price swings, while option volumes can indicate potential support or resistance levels.
RSI Divergence RSI divergence occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction to the RSI indicator. Depending on the type of divergence spotted, this can signal a potential reversal in the market trend, either bullish or bearish.
The best RSI settings are typically a 14-period timeframe with 70 as the overbought level and 30 as the oversold level. These settings can be adjusted based on specific trading strategies.
Technical AnalysisTechnical analysis is a means of examining and predicting price movements in the financial markets, by using historical price charts and market statistics. It is based on the idea that if a trader can identify previous market patterns, they can form a fairly accurate prediction of future price trajectories.
What exactly are the two types of technical analysis? Chart patterns and technical (statistical) indicators are the two main types of technical analysis. Chart patterns are a subjective type of technical analysis in which technicians use certain patterns to indicate regions of support and resistance on a chart.
Option TraderTrading options offers a number of benefits for an active trader: Options can offer high returns and do so over a short period, allowing you to multiply your money quickly if your wager is right. With options, it can cost less to get the same exposure to a stock's price movement than it does to buy the stock directly.
USDJPY: Approaching Key Support at 150.000USDJPY is trading around 150.038, testing the critical support level at 150.000 after a sharp decline. The EMA 34 (152.215) and EMA 89 (150.899) act as strong resistance, limiting recovery momentum. If this support level is breached, the price may continue to drop toward the 148.000 zone, a significant previous low.
Conversely, if the 150.000 level holds and the pair breaks above the EMA 34, USDJPY could target the 152.000 resistance level. News of the ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced safe-haven demand, putting pressure on the Japanese Yen, while the US Dollar remains strong due to high US Treasury yields. Traders should closely monitor these levels to adjust their strategies accordingly.
EURUSD: Bullish Signals but Facing Major ResistanceEURUSD is currently trading around 1.05692, showing a slight recovery from recent lows, with the EMA 34 providing dynamic support and the EMA 89 acting as a key resistance level.
Price action indicates short-term bullish signals, but the strong resistance at 1.06500 could pose a significant challenge. If this level is breached, EURUSD may extend its upward momentum towards higher targets around 1.07000.
Conversely, failure to hold above the EMA 34 could see selling pressure push the price back to test support at 1.05200 or lower.
News of the ceasefire in the Middle East is reducing safe-haven demand, supporting a stronger USD, which in turn is pressuring EURUSD.
Gold--> Trade inside from channel boundaryHi guys,
Gold prices inched slightly higher to $2,650 following a breakout, spurred by political headlines, but the broader fundamental landscape remains clouded with uncertainty. Market liquidity is notably thin today due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, leaving the market ripe for sudden volatility.
Geopolitical tensions continue to play a pivotal role, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict maintaining a strong grip on sentiment. Adding fuel to the fire, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico are creating ripples across the market. “This has amplified concerns about potential fallout for these two nations, which in turn provides a key layer of support for gold,” analysts highlight.
However, any push to elevate gold prices could face significant headwinds. Trump’s tariff policies, while unsettling, are seen as potential inflationary catalysts, which might force the Federal Reserve to rethink its trajectory of interest rate cuts. This tug-of-war keeps gold traders on edge.
From a technical lens, gold is caught in a sideways grind. Traders are eyeing a local H1 channel between $2,660 - $2,618, with the broader D1 range extending from $2,690 (or $2,710) - $2,605.
At this juncture, gold seems to be gravitating toward liquidity clusters above current levels. A potential false breakout at key resistance zones, followed by price consolidation in sell-heavy areas, could spell a sharp pullback toward the lower boundary of the sideways range.
For savvy traders, this moment is not just about watching the charts but anticipating the narrative. A delicate interplay of technical setups and geopolitical uncertainties makes every move in the gold market an opportunity wrapped in risk. Will gold reclaim higher ground, or will it succumb to the gravitational pull of its range-bound rhythm? The answer lies just beyond the next breakout—or breakdown.
Selling Pressure at Resistance, Downtrend Forecasting AheadThe 4-hour chart of USD/JPY shows a clear bearish pattern after the price failed to break above a key resistance level around 152.000. The slight bounce we saw recently may have been a weak attempt to retest this level, but with the lack of strong buying momentum, the price seems to be preparing for a deeper decline.
The rebound and reaction at this resistance area is typical of a distribution market, where previous buyers may be looking to cut their losses, and new sellers are entering the market. The 34 EMA has crossed below the 89 EMA, a sign that the downtrend may continue.
I appreciate the retest of the resistance level and see this as an opportunity to consider short positions. If the price breaks below the current support around 150,280, this could initiate a new bearish phase, towards the next support level around 149,000.
Gold: Turning Point at $2,650, Recovery or Bearish?On the 1-hour chart of gold, we are witnessing a crucial point as the price is trading close to the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, both of which are forming an area of technical support around $2,650/ounce. The convergence of these two EMAs, combined with the current price, provides an indication that the market may be in a decisive phase.
Technically, if the gold price holds and starts to recover above this support level, it will confirm stability and the potential for a short-term rally, towards the next resistance level. Conversely, a clear and sustained break below $2,650 could open a new bearish trend, sending the price further down, testing lower support levels.
Based on the current moves and market structure, my personal view is that gold prices are likely to see short-term stability above the EMAs, setting the stage for a mild recovery.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD capitalizing on the weakening of the US dollar and heading towards the areas of interest and liquidity at 2635 - 2639. But! There are signs that a flag pattern is forming. Theoretically, any attempt for gold prices to rise could be limited. PCE, GDP, and the resistance ahead...
Meanwhile, sellers pause slightly amid concerns about trade wars, geopolitical risks, expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, recently declining US bond yields, and the USD falling overnight to a two-week low. However, ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US, namely PCE and GDP, after a relatively quiet news week, volatility is likely to be unpredictable. The question now is whether the downward momentum will continue as the price reacts to a critical support zone.
Technically, gold remains range-bound and is heading towards areas of interest from which a retracement could form. But this reaction also partly depends on the news....
The focus is on the imbalance zone, fibo 0.618 and fibo 0.5. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
EUR/USD: Breakout from Triangle AccumulationThe EUR/USD 1-hour chart shows a triangle pattern forming, which is a sign of accumulation before a breakout. A breakout of this pattern to the upside, as it has recently done, could signal that the next bullish trend is likely to continue.
The price has broken above the EMA 34 and is approaching the EMA 89, which suggests that the bullish trend may be increasing. If the price sustains above the EMA 89 and continues to break above the previously drawn horizontal resistance around 1.0577, we can expect a significant upside move.
Personally, I would advise traders to closely monitor the price interaction with the EMA 89 and the resistance at 1.0577 in the coming hours to determine a suitable trading strategy. At the same time, it is indispensable to follow economic news that may affect EUR/USD to get a comprehensive view of the current market trend.
EUR/USD: Hot Spot at 1.0594, Opportunity or Challenge?Looking at the 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD pair, I see a few key points that indicate the potential for the trend to develop in the near future. The pair has recently shown a fairly clear recovery from the lows, with the price currently trading near the important resistance level of 1.0594. This level has acted as resistance in the past and could now test the ability of traders again.
From a technical perspective, the price approaching this level could lead to two main scenarios: If EUR/USD can break above 1.0594, we could see the rally continue to higher levels, possibly reaching 1.0650 or higher.
Gold Stabilizes Amid Policy and Inflation WaitLooking at the 4-hour chart of gold, we can see a sideways trend in recent trading sessions, especially during the Thanksgiving holiday when the market lacked strong transactions. The stability of gold prices at $2,636/ounce reflects investors' waiting for new signals from the market and policymakers.
The highlight of the chart is the current support and resistance levels. Gold is trading below both the 34 and 89 EMAs, indicating downward pressure, although not too strong. The recent crossover of these two EMAs suggests some price instability, but not enough to determine a clear trend.
In the current context, there are a number of macro factors affecting gold prices that investors should pay attention to. First, expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2025 based on PCE data showing slowing inflation could weaken the USD and support gold as a safe-haven asset. Second, concerns about new tax policies from the Trump administration could create uncertainty in financial markets, making gold more attractive as a safe-haven option.
Personally, I think gold is likely to remain stable or slightly increase in price in the short term, reflecting its role as a hedge against risk in the current environment.
What People Think About Management In summary, trade risk refers to the potential for financial loss or negative consequences arising from fluctuations in the value of goods or services traded between different countries.
Basically money management in trading is a defensive strategy that is meant to preserve capital. It is a way to decide how many shares or lots to trade at any given time based on your available capital. Successful money management can save you from draining your account when you hit a bad streak of losing trades.
Management TradingTrade management involves a series of tasks and decisions that occur after a trade is executed. These tasks include: 1. Determining Position Size: Before entering a trade, calculate the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size.
Trade Management is the process by which companies plan, execute, and administer payment for trade promotions. Successful trade management includes: Managing trade funds. Maximizing trade promotion profitability. Minimizing claim and deduction costs.
Advanced Trading Trading involves the buying and selling of financial assets, such as stocks, to earn profits based on the price fluctuations of these assets. There are different types of trading, and traders use various strategies, techniques, and tools to decide when to buy or sell different assets.
Trade is the exchange of goods and services between parties for mutually beneficial purposes. People and countries trade to improve their circumstances and quality of life. It also develops relationships between governments and fosters friendship and trust.