EURUSD Forecast, 03 Mar,23At the time of writing, the EUR/USD was up 0.08% to $1.06057. A mixed start to the day saw the EUR/USD fall to an early low of $1.05946 before rising to a high of $1.06148.
The EUR/USD needs to move through the $1.0615 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0654 and the Thursday high of $1.06728. A return to $1.0650 would signal a bullish session. However, the EUR/USD would need the services PMIs and the Fed commentary to support a breakout session.
In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0712. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0808.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0558 into play. However, barring a data-fueled sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.05. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0519 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0423.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The EUR/USD sits below the 50-day EMA ($1.06228). The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.
A move through the 50-day EMA ($1.06228) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0654) and the 100-day EMA ($1.06581) to target the 200-day EMA ($1.06836) and R2 ($1.0712). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1.06228) would leave the Major Support Levels in play.
The US Session
Looking ahead to the US session, it is a busy day on the US economic calendar. The all-important ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February will draw plenty of investor interest.
We expect market sensitivity to the headline PMI and sub-components, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index the one to watch.
Other stats include finalized S&P Global Services and Composite PMI numbers that should play second fiddle to the ISM survey-based numbers.
With the services sector in the spotlight, investors need to monitor FOMC member chatter. FOMC members Logan, Bostic, and Bowman will deliver speeches today. Investors will want to gauge how high and for how long the Fed will push interest rates to curb inflation and return it to target.
On Thursday, FOMC member Bostic favored a 25-basis point rate hike in March.
