Forexsignals
DXY Breakdown After Major Top – Wave v in ProgressThe DXY chart shows that the U.S. Dollar has completed a larger corrective structure and is now moving inside a new impulsive bearish phase. After forming a major top near the 110 area, the index started a clear five-wave decline, indicating strong downside momentum. The recent sideways movement looks like a corrective pause (wave iv / Y) rather than a trend reversal. As long as the price stays below the key resistance zone around 100–101, the overall structure remains bearish. This suggests the dollar is preparing for the final wave lower (wave v / 3), which could push the index toward deeper support levels. Overall, the Elliott Wave structure favours continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar in the coming months.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
GBP/USD Signals Trend Shift – Impulsive Upside ExpectedThe chart shows that GBP/USD has completed a full W–X–Y corrective pattern, with the final wave (y) and its C wave forming a clean bottom near the long-term support line. From that low, price has started a strong upward move, which looks like the beginning of a new impulsive Wave 1. The current pullback toward the 0.382–0.618 Fibonacci zone is typical behavior for a Wave 2 retracement before the next strong rally. As long as the price stays above the invalidation level at 1.30094 (the wave (y) bottom), the bullish scenario remains valid. This suggests that GBP/USD is preparing for a larger Wave 3 push to the upside.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
Bank of Japan Policy Decision: Global Market Impact AnalysisBank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (December 19)
Introduction : Why Japan’s Interest Rate Policy Matters
Japan’s monetary policy plays a critical role in the global financial system. For decades, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained ultra-loose conditions, turning the Japanese yen into the world’s primary funding currency. Global investors borrow cheaply in JPY and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets such as equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.
Because of this structure, even a small shift in BoJ policy can trigger large cross-market reactions. The BoJ’s interest rate decision on December 19 is therefore a high-impact macro event with potential consequences for forex, global equities, bonds, gold, and crypto markets.
Scenario 1: If the Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates
A rate hike would represent a historic policy shift and signal the early stages of monetary normalization.
Impact on Forex (USD/JPY & JPY Pairs)
* The Japanese yen (JPY) is likely to strengthen due to improved yield appeal
* USD/JPY may face strong bearish pressure
* Carry trades funded in JPY could unwind rapidly, increasing volatility
JPY crosses such as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY may also decline as risk exposure is reduced.
Impact on Global Equity Markets
* Japanese equities: Mixed to bearish bias due to a stronger yen hurting exporters
* Asian markets: Short-term weakness as financial conditions tighten
* US & European equities: Increased volatility and pressure on growth stocks
Overall, a rate hike may trigger a short-term global risk-off reaction driven by liquidity repricing rather than economic deterioration.
Impact on Crypto Markets (Bitcoin & Altcoins)
* Bitcoin: Short-term bearish pressure and higher volatility
* Altcoins: Likely underperformance due to higher risk sensitivity
* Macro-driven selling could create longer-term accumulation zones once volatility settles
Impact on Bonds, Gold & Risk Sentiment
* Bonds: Japanese and global yields may rise
* Gold: Short-term pressure from higher yields, medium-term support if risk aversion increases
* Risk sentiment: Shift toward defensive positioning and reduced leverage
Scenario 2: If the Bank of Japan Does NOT Raise Interest Rates
If rates remain unchanged, markets may view the decision as continued policy caution.
Expected Market Reactions
* JPY: Continued weakness
* USD/JPY: Bullish continuation
* Global equities & crypto: Supported by ongoing liquidity
* Risk sentiment: Risk-on behaviour likely to persist
Short-Term vs Medium-Term Outlook
Short-Term
* Rate hike: Sharp volatility, risk-off moves
* No hike: Relief rally in risk assets
Medium-Term
* Gradual tightening allows controlled market adjustment
* Continued loose policy supports assets but increases structural risks over time
Markets typically shift from news reaction to trend confirmation within weeks.
Educational Entry–Exit Examples (Not Financial Advice)
USD/JPY (Rate Hike):
* Bias: Bearish
* Concept: Breakdown → pullback → continuation
* Invalidation: Above recent swing high
Bitcoin (No Hike):
* Bias: Bullish
* Concept: Pullback after impulse
* Risk Note: Reduced size during news volatility
US Indices:
* Rate hike: Sell rallies near resistance
* No hike: Buy dips in confirmed trend
Conclusion: Key Takeaways for Traders
The Bank of Japan’s December 19 interest rate decision is a major global liquidity event. A rate hike would favour the yen while pressuring risk assets, whereas a no-change policy would support equities, cryptocurrencies, and carry trades. Traders should prioritise volatility management, confirmation from price action, and cross-market correlations over predictions and forecasts.
Stay tuned!
@Money_Dictators
Thank you :)
XAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI RiskXAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI Risk
Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective.
Buy zone: 4314 – 4317
SL: 4307
TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370
Technical context:
On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support.
Expected movement:
Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure.
Position management:
If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying.
Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346
SL: 4353
TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290
Technical context:
The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear.
Note:
Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news.
MAIN REASON
Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend.
The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance.
When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles.
MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA
The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346.
Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly.
Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
EUR/USD Decision PhaseEUR/USD Decision Phase
Recent candles indicate a slowdown in upside follow-through, implying that short-term positioning may be crowded. This pause does not immediately invalidate the broader constructive tone but introduces the risk of a corrective rotation as liquidity is rebalanced. The projected move on the chart highlights a scenario where price may seek efficiency before determining the next directional leg.
Overall conditions suggest the market is transitioning from expansion into evaluation. Continuation higher would require renewed participation, while failure to attract follow-through could lead to a deeper reset driven by profit-taking and short-term repricing. Patience is advised as the market reveals whether this phase resolves through continuation or corrective realignment.
Price action reflects a market that has recently expanded after a prolonged phase of balanced participation. The sequence of higher intraday pushes shows growing initiative from buyers, supported by repeated structure continuation and shallow pullbacks, suggesting confidence rather than urgency. Momentum has remained constructive, with price spending more time advancing than correcting, a sign of controlled accumulation rather than emotional buying.
Recent candles indicate a slowdown in upside follow-through, implying that short-term positioning may be crowded. This pause does not immediately invalidate the broader constructive tone but introduces the risk of a corrective rotation as liquidity is rebalanced. The projected move on the chart highlights a scenario where price may seek efficiency before determining the next directional leg.
Overall conditions suggest the market is transitioning from expansion into evaluation. Continuation higher would require renewed participation, while failure to attract follow-through could lead to a deeper reset driven by profit-taking and short-term repricing. Patience is advised as the market reveals whether this phase resolves through continuation or corrective realignment.
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume ProfileXAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume Profile
Gold is moving sideways and consolidating around the 4,300 USD/oz area. The short-term direction remains unconfirmed and requires clear reactions at key liquidity zones.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO
Medium-term trend-following buy strategy at price areas with Volume Profile advantage
Primary buy zone: around 4284 based on VAL
Technical context: this is the lower value area where buying interest is likely to appear as the market continues to consolidate
Price expectation: price holds above VAL, absorbs short-term selling pressure, and gradually rotates back toward the upper balance area
Position management:
If price reacts positively and H1 candles hold above the 4284 level, a medium-term bullish bias in line with the main trend can be maintained.
If price breaks clearly below VAL, caution is required and deeper reaction zones should be monitored.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO
Deeper buy opportunity in the event of additional liquidity sweep
Alternative buy zone: around 4242, based on the VAH of the previous value area
Technical context: this area represents the upper value zone of the prior consolidation and may act as strong support during a deeper pullback
Price expectation: downside liquidity sweep followed by a recovery, restoring market balance
SELL SCENARIO – HIGH RISK
Sell positions should only be considered as short-term trades, not a primary strategy
Short-term sell zone: around 4378, based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension
Note: sells should only be considered if clear price rejection signals appear. Avoid holding short positions for extended periods while the broader trend remains bullish.
KEY REASONS
On the H1 timeframe, price is consolidating, indicating the market needs additional liquidity before confirming the next directional move
Volume Profile clearly highlights high-probability trading zones, particularly VAL at 4284 and VAH at 4242
The 4378 level represents an extended resistance zone suitable for profit-taking or short-term countertrend sells
MACRO CONTEXT AND MARKET SENTIMENT
Gold continues to hold strong near the 4,300 USD/oz level, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and rising safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, silver has faced short-term profit-taking pressure after reaching record highs, reflecting a more cautious market tone.
This week’s focus is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak data may reinforce gold’s bullish trend, while strong data could trigger a short-term correction amid ongoing policy uncertainty within the Fed.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Avoid trading while price remains in the middle of the consolidation range and away from key Volume Profile levels.
The medium-term buy strategy loses its edge if price breaks clearly below 4242 and fails to reclaim the level.
Closely monitor volatility around the Nonfarm release, as sharp spikes and liquidity sweeps are highly likely.
Gold Looks Prime for All-Time High Breakout📈 Technical Analysis of the Chart
The chart shows XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) moving in what appears to be an upward-sloping channel — higher lows are marked by trend-line support.
Price recently revisited the lower boundary (support zone + trendline) and appears to have held firm — a bullish signal (i.e. a “retest & bounce”).
The annotation “POI” (Point of Interest) near that bounce suggests a probable pivot from support → initiating the next leg up.
On the upside, the chart projects a move toward a new all-time high (ATH) — the red horizontal line — implying a breakout of the current consolidation zone.
If gold breaks above current resistance and stays above the channel’s upper boundary, that increase could accelerate with bullish momentum. This aligns with typical breakout + retest strategies often used in gold trading.
Conversely, if price fails to hold this support zone and drops below the trendline, the bullish setup would be invalidated — a risk to watch, especially if sentiment shifts.
Technical conclusion: The chart shows a classic channel-retest setup — if upward momentum continues, a move toward the all-time high is well justified. The current bounce from support provides a favorable entry setup for bulls, with manageable risk if a stop-loss is set just below the channel support.
🌍 Fundamental & Macro Context
Gold’s recent strength is driven by expectations of lower interest rates: as a non-yielding asset, gold tends to benefit when rates fall because the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.
A weaker U.S. dollar — often accompanying potential rate cuts — makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, adding further demand support.
Broad economic context: unsteady global growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising demand for safe-haven assets help maintain strong gold demand.
Market forecasts remain bullish: some analysts see gold reaching as high as $4,950/oz by 2026, with a more likely base-case target around $4,500/oz — assuming rate cuts and continued macroeconomic uncertainty.
That said, the key risk remains in a potential rebound of the U.S. Dollar or abrupt shift in monetary policy (e.g. fewer rate cuts than expected) — either could undercut gold’s rally.
Fundamental conclusion: The macro backdrop — rate-cut expectations, weak USD, and global uncertainty — strongly supports a continuation of gold’s upward trajectory. If these tailwinds persist, gold’s push toward new highs is fundamentally justified.
✅ What This Setup Means & What to Watch
If bullish scenario plays out
Expect price to challenge the all-time high. A breakout may target or even exceed prior ATHs.
A bounce-and-run scenario may attract momentum traders, fueling further upside.
Key triggers to monitor
Keep an eye on announcements from Federal Reserve: rate-cut decisions or dovish signals accelerate gold demand.
Watch USD strength: a strong dollar could cap gains or reverse the uptrend.
Monitor global risk sentiment — geopolitical events or economic slowdown fears tend to push money into gold.
Risk control considerations
Use the channel support / trendline as a stop-loss anchor. A breakdown below could invalidate the bullish bias.
Consider that strong moves in the dollar or surprising inflation data might compress gold’s upside or spark a pullback.
Gold (XAU/USD) 30-Minute: Liquidity Grab Setup with Order Block1. Current Price Structure
Price is trending upward on the 30-min timeframe.
Recent candles show higher highs and higher lows, indicating short-term bullish pressure.
2. Liquidity Zone & Order Block
The grey shaded area marked as “liquidity + orderblock” is a confluence zone where stops and institutional orders are likely clustered.
Expect price to revisit this area for a shake-out of weak hands before moving higher.
The up arrow suggests that this zone could act as a launchpad for the next bullish leg.
3. Potential Pullback and Continuation
The scrawled black path shows a probable scenario:
Minor pullback to liquidity/order block area
Support test on the trendline or zone
Followed by a rejection and bullish continuation
4. Key Indicators
EMA 9 (blue) is below current price — supports short-term bullish momentum.
Ichimoku cloud is mostly supportive, with price above key lines (suggests trend stamina).
5. Resistance Ahead
The horizontal red zone near ~4,353 to 4,382 is a major supply area.
A breakout above this would confirm bullish continuation.
However, failure there could lead to deeper pullbacks.
🔥 Summary Bias
Bullish (higher probability setup)
Price is likely to:
Pull back to the support or order block area
Grab liquidity
Rally toward or above the resistance zone
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Level Significance
~4,353 – 4,382 Major resistance / breakout target
Order Block Zone Liquidity grab & support
Trendline (rising) Dynamic support
EMA 9 Short-term support
Waiting for FVG / Liquidity Pullback, Trend-Following BUY Bias1. Market Context & Structure (H1)
• Gold has completed a liquidity sweep followed by a bullish BOS, confirming that the short-term uptrend remains intact.
• After the strong impulse, price is now entering a rebalancing / technical pullback phase rather than a reversal.
• The overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low, favoring BUY strategies aligned with the dominant trend.
2. Key Technical Zones on the Chart
• Resistance / Supply Zone 1: 4,359 – 4,360
→ A previously strong reaction zone, where short-term corrections may occur.
• Resistance / Supply Zone 2: 4,394
→ Fibonacci 0.786 extension area, prone to profit-taking or upper liquidity sweeps.
• iFVG – Pullback Zone: 4,297 – 4,300
→ Inefficiency left during the bullish impulse, prioritized for the first BUY reaction.
• Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,267
→ Resting liquidity below, where a deeper sweep may occur before trend continuation.
3. Trading Scenarios – Captain Vincent Style
🔹 Primary Scenario – BUY at iFVG / Liquidity Buy (Preferred)
• Expect price to pull back from the 4,35x area toward 4,297 – 4,300 (iFVG) or deeper into 4,267 (Liquidity Buy).
• At the BUY zone, wait for confirmation signals:
– Strong rejection wicks
– Bullish engulfing
– Bullish ChoCH on M15–H1
• Preferred BUY Zones:
– BUY 1: 4,297 – 4,300
– BUY 2 (deeper): 4,267
• Targets:
– TP1: 4,359
– TP2: 4,394
– TP3 extension: continuation if 4,394 is broken.
• Invalidation:
– H1 close below 4,255 → short-term bullish structure weakens.
🔹 Secondary Scenario – Short-Term SELL Reaction at Supply
• If price rallies directly into 4,359 – 4,394 without a clear pullback, a short-term SELL reaction may appear.
• SELLs are scalp / counter-trend only, not the primary scenario.
• SELL target: pullback toward iFVG 4,297.
4. Risk & Management Notes
• Avoid FOMO BUY at high resistance zones.
• Prioritize BUY entries at discounted areas (FVG – Liquidity).
• Main bias remains BUY on pullbacks; SELLs are only technical reactions.
• Adjust position sizing carefully as the market is in an expansion phase.
Gold Weekly Trend: XAU/USD Ready to SurgeGold Weekly Trend: XAU/USD Ready to Surge
Gold closes the week with a steady bullish profile, maintaining a structure that reflects strong positioning from larger market participants. The weekly flow shows a market that continues to rotate upward through liquidity pockets while holding firm during corrective phases.
This week’s behavior indicates that buyers remain active on every controlled retracement, keeping the overall structure balanced and directional. The price continues to move in a sequence of expansion → stabilisation → renewed expansion, which is a common pattern when the market is preparing for sustained upside development.
Underlying order flow suggests that Gold is still within a broad accumulation cycle at higher levels, where the market repeatedly absorbs sell-side attempts and transitions back into bullish pressure. The consistency of this pattern signals confidence from long-term participants and reduces the probability of a structural shift at this stage.
As the week closes, the overall environment remains favorable for continued appreciation. Price is advancing in a measured, orderly fashion rather than showing signs of exhaustion. This steady progression typically precedes multi-week continuation phases, especially when liquidity objectives remain active above current trading levels.
Bullish BOS Breakout, Watching Reaction at OB & Sell-Side Liquid◆ Market Context (H2)
Price has just broken a bullish BOS and closed above the previous equilibrium zone, confirming buyers are in control. After the strong impulse, the market has entered a rebalancing phase, where a short-term pullback often appears before continuation or a liquidity sweep to the upside.
◆ SMC & Price Action
• Bullish structure confirmed by consecutive BOS following the prior CHoCH.
• The 4,274 OB is the nearest demand zone where buyers previously reacted.
• Above lies sell-side liquidity at 4,355, with a further extension toward 4,408 — a potential distribution or short-term reversal zone.
• Price is currently in premium, so patience is preferred over FOMO entries.
◆ Key Levels
• Resistance / Liquidity: 4,355 → 4,408
• Support OB: 4,274
• Deeper OB: 4,217
◆ Trading Scenarios
➤ Scenario A – Pullback BUY (Primary)
• Wait for a pullback into OB 4,274
• Conditions: structure holds (no break of recent lows), bullish reaction appears
• Targets:
▪ 4,319
▪ 4,355 (Liquidity Sell)
▪ Extension: 4,408
➤ Scenario B – Break & Continue
• If price holds above 4,319 with bullish closes
• Monitor reactions at 4,355 for partial profit-taking
• Avoid chasing price in premium zones
➤ Scenario C – Deeper Pullback
• If OB 4,274 is clearly broken
• Price may retrace to OB 4,217 for re-accumulation
• Only consider BUY after a fresh bullish CHoCH
◆ Summary
• Primary trend: Bullish (BOS confirmed)
• Priority: Buy pullbacks, avoid FOMO
• Key decision zone: OB 4,274
• Upside liquidity targets: 4,355 → 4,408
XAU/USD : Buy at OB 4,19x – 4,18x, Targets 4,24x → 4,26x 1. Market Structure (H1)
Gold is retracing back into bullish structure after breaking a series of bullish ChoCH and BoS, forming a new high around 4,24x. The current decline is only a technical pullback because:
• Price is returning to the Buy Order Block at 4,188 – 4,196.
• This zone aligns with trendline support and the demand base that fueled the previous impulse.
• The macro structure remains bullish as long as H1 does not close below 4,188.
→ This is a clear pullback–continuation setup: wait for price to retrace into discount, then target higher zones.
2. Key Levels
🔹 Demand Zone (Buy Zone): 4,188 – 4,196
• Bullish OB
• Trendline support
• Priority BUY area
🔹 Resistance 1: 4,217 – 4,218
• Multiple rejections
• Breakout → next bullish leg
🔹 Resistance 2: 4,238 – 4,239
• 0.5–0.618 Fibo confluence
• Possible mild sell reaction
🔹 Liquidity & Targets:
• 4,259 → Fibo 1.272
• 4,278 → Fibo 1.618 + resting liquidity
3. Trading Plan
🔸 Main Scenario – BUY at OB 4,19x – 4,18x
Conditions:
• Price taps 4,188 – 4,196
• Reversal signals: pin bar, engulfing, or bullish ChoCH
Targets:
TP1: 4,217
TP2: 4,238
TP3: 4,259
TP4: 4,278
Invalidation:
• H1 close below 4,185 → stay out.
🔸 Alternate Scenario – Price goes up without retesting OB
If price holds above 4,210 and breaks 4,217:
• Wait for retest of 4,217
• BUY continuation toward 4,238 → 4,259 → 4,278
Market Outlook
Gold is accumulating and building a base for a stronger breakout. The OB Buy zone 4,19x – 4,18x remains the highest-probability reversal area.
XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis
📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:
• Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
• However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
• Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.
→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.
💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch
🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone
• 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
• 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
• Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.
🔸 Support / Buy Zone
• 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
• If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.
🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170
Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.
BUY Conditions:
• Price touches 4,184–4,170
• Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
• Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear
Targets:
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,215
• TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x
If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:
SELL Conditions:
• Retest 4,243–4,244
• Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
• Must not close H1 above 4,250
Targets:
• TP1: 4,235
• TP2: 4,225
• TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170
Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.
3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261
Only activate when:
• Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
• Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
• Structure forms HL → HH
At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
• SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
XAU/USD H1 Plan: SELL at OB, BUY at Liquidity1. Market Structure (H1)
Gold is in a corrective phase after breaking the previous upward structure. From the nearest peak, the price continuously creates downward BoS waves, confirming that selling pressure is in control in the short term.
Currently, the price is moving within a descending channel and retesting the trendline multiple times but has not been able to breakout. This supports the scenario of the price continuing to complete a deeper decline to gather liquidity before forming a major recovery wave.
2. Important technical zones on the chart
🔹 OB – Sell Zone: 4,190 – 4,197
Confluence of Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 of the most recent decline.
This is the H1 supply zone where the price previously broke the downward structure → prioritize observing SELL when the price retraces.
🔹 Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,154 – 4,163
Liquidity cluster located just below the nearest bottom.
This is the area where the market is likely to create a liquidity sweep before reversing upwards.
🔹 Deep Liquidity Zone: 4,115 – 4,12x
Deep liquidity zone, confirmed by multiple old bottoms formed since the beginning of the month.
If the price is pushed down here, this will be a very strong BUY zone for the next major recovery wave.
3. Trading scenarios according to structure – clear & easy to follow
🔸 Scenario 1 – SELL from OB 4,19x (main scenario)
Activation conditions:
Price retraces to OB Sell zone 4,19x
Appearance of reversal signals M15–H1: strong rejection candles, ChoCH down, engulfing
Targets:
TP1: 4,163 (Liquidity)
TP2: 4,154
TP3 extended: 4,12x – 4,115
Note: This OB zone is a beautiful confluence – if the price reacts strongly, there is a high chance the market will complete the decline according to the model.
🔸 Scenario 2 – BUY according to Liquidity Sweep (priority after SELL)
After completing the decline to liquidity zones:
BUY Zone 1: 4,154 – 4,163
Wait for bottom sweep & ChoCH up → BUY according to recovery wave
BUY Zone 2: 4,115 – 4,12x (strongest Buy)
If the price breaks through the Liquidity zone 4,15x
This is the zone where the largest buying force may appear → expect to create a new H1 bottom
Targets for both BUY zones:
TP1: 4,195 (OB Sell retest)
TP2: 4,210
TP3 extended: 4,23x – 4,24x
Further: 4,25x – 4,27x (Fibo 1.272 – 1.618)
4. Important notes & risk management
Do not BUY when the price is standing in the descending channel – wait for sweep & confirmation.
SELL is only valid when the price hits exactly OB 4,19x, avoid FOMO selling in the middle of the zone.
BUY is invalid if H1 breaks deeply below 4,110.
Strong upward scenario only activates when H1 closes above 4,200.
XAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile & Fed WeekXAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile & Fed Week: prioritize Sell at VAH, Buy only when reaching discount price area
1. Market snapshot
On H1, gold retested last week's peak and then dropped immediately, indicating that buying pressure at high price levels remains cautious – investors are not ready to "chase the price."
The current structure does not clearly show a long-term trend, but in the short term, there are signs of distribution around high price levels, favorable for selling scenarios according to Volume Profile.
Today, Brian prioritizes watching for a Sell after the price fills the FVG and touches the VAH, while also preparing a Buy scenario at a lower area if the market sweeps liquidity strongly.
2. Volume Profile & price structure
The VAH area around 4,233–4,235 coincides with the FVG area above:
This is where large volumes were previously traded, making it easy for profit-taking/sell-off forces to appear.
Below, the sell-side liquidity levels are spread around 4,200 – 4,175 – 4,140, coinciding with the lows of previous sessions.
The area 4,172–4,175 is a good balance zone for the Buy scenario: below it is a cluster of liquidity and just above a broader Buy zone around 4,140 on the chart.
3. Trading plan for this week
Scenario 1 – Sell according to Volume Profile (priority)
Entry Sell: 4,233–4,235 (VAH + FVG)
SL: 4,241
TP1: 4,215
TP2: 4,200
TP3: 4,175
TP4: 4,140
Idea: wait for the price to fill the FVG and touch the VAH, observe the H1/M15 candle reaction. If there is a clear rejection signal (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…), activate the Sell order. This is a short-term play, based on volume & liquidity, not a chase sell when the price is in the middle of the zone.
Scenario 2 – Buy when the price reaches the discount area
Entry Buy: 4,172–4,175
SL: 4,165
TP1: 4,195
TP2: 4,220
TP3: 4,245
TP4: 4,290
Idea: if the price is strongly sold off sweeping through the sell-side liquidity areas, the area 4,172–4,175 can become a good demand zone to catch the rebound, especially when a nice candle reaction appears on H1. This is a "catch the rebound" buy position in the context of this Fed week, requiring disciplined SL.
4. Macro context – Why is the market hesitant?
Last Friday, gold jumped to 4,260 USD and then quickly fell to 4,200 USD, mainly due to the sharp rise in US bond yields as the market awaited the Fed meeting.
Although the market still prices in a high probability of the Fed cutting 25 bps, sentiment is divided by the "hawkish rate cut" scenario:
The Fed cuts but maintains a tough tone on inflation → yields are unlikely to fall deeply, gold is easily sold at high levels.
USD maintains its range, US economic data is relatively stable, causing money flows to "not dare to all-in" on gold before the dot-plot and Powell's speech.
Therefore, this week is the Fed's week: the short-term direction of gold will depend heavily on the policy message, especially the expected reduction path for next year.
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XAU/USD: Buy at 4.19x, Sell Short at OB 4.24x1. Market Context (H1)
Gold is moving within a corrective structure after the previous strong rally. The current price action revolves around two main zones:
Buy Support Zone 4,197–4,200: where the price continuously reacts, with multiple BoS – ChoCH increases → indicating that buying pressure still maintains the base.
OB Zone – Sell 4.24x: confluence of Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 – 0.786, a zone likely to see a decline reaction before forming a larger trend.
The current structure leans towards a recovery to the OB Sell zone, after which the market may continue to adjust deeper to create liquidity before rising again.
2. Important Technical Zones
🔹 Support – Buy Zone: 4,197 – 4,200
This is a strong price base, where BoS + ChoCH continuously form.
Only when breaking below this zone → the short-term uptrend structure weakens.
🔹 OB Zone – Sell: 4,238 – 4,245
Confluence of Fibonacci retracement (0.5–0.618–0.786).
A favorable zone for the market to create a decline reaction, triggering a liquidity sweep to lower lows.
🔹 Strong Low: 4.17x
This is an important low – if the price sweeps here but does not break → expect a strong rebound to higher targets.
3. Trading Scenarios According to Structure
🔸 Scenario 1: Price recovers to OB Sell 4.24x → look for short-term SELL signals
Wait for the price to hit the OB Sell zone and appear:
Strong rejection candle
ChoCH decreases on M15 frame
Volume increases at the peak
Then expect a decline back to the Support Buy zone 4,197–4,205.
Trading idea:
Sell zone 4,238–4,245
Target: 4.20x
If breaking 4.20x deeply → extend to Strong Low 4.17x
🔸 Scenario 2 (high priority): Buy at Support to catch the rise to 4.25x – 4.27x – 4.29x
After completing the decline according to scenario 1, the price may rebound from the strong demand zone.
BUY conditions:
Price sweeps down to 4,197–4,205 or deeper to 4.17x.
Reversal pattern appears + ChoCH increases.
Recreate HL (higher low) structure.
Targets:
TP1: 4,234
TP2: 4,244
TP3: 4,258
Extended TP: 4,276 – 4,299 (Fibo 1.272 – 1.618)
4. Risk Management Notes
Do not chase Buy when the price is in the OB Sell zone – easy to get swept.
Do not Sell deeply when not reaching OB 4.24x zone – price has not entered a nice premium zone.
Always clearly define invalidation levels:
BUY invalid when price closes H1 below 4.17x.
SELL invalid when price breaks strongly above 4,245 and holds.
XAU/USD: Gold Consolidates, Awaiting Pullback for Breakout📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold is moving within a converging triangle pattern – with the bottom being pushed higher by buying pressure, while the top is continuously blocked by the H1 descending trendline.
After the previous strong decline, the market has consecutively created bullish ChoCH , indicating that capital flow is starting to return, but the pivotal supply remains at the OB Bearish 4.23x area – where the price is currently stuck.
Currently, the price is testing the upper edge of the triangle + supply area, which is primarily used for distribution and liquidity sweep. → Not an optimal area for FOMO BUY.
💎 Key Levels – Important Areas
• OB Bearish – 4.23x: confluence with descending trendline → high probability area for strong reaction or Liquidity Sweep.
• FVG – 4.21x: H1 price gap, the market tends to return to fill before continuing.
• OB Bullish – Buy Zone – 4.201: H1 demand + lower edge of current range → priority area to observe BUY according to trend.
• Liquidity Buy – 4.170: lower liquidity area → price may sweep deep before bouncing strongly if the medium-term uptrend remains effective.
• Upper Target – 4.25x: expanded target if gold successfully breaks the converging triangle.
🎯 Trading Plan – Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Priority Scenario: Pullback to OB Bullish
If the OB Bearish 4.23x area reacts (wick rejection, reversal pattern, weakening momentum), expect the price to retreat to:
→ FVG 4.21x
→ OB Bullish 4.201
At the 4.20x area, if a bullish ChoCH / engulfing / strong pin bar appears, this will be a reasonable BUY area according to the trend.
Suggested TP:
• TP1: FVG 4.21x
• TP2: Retest OB Bearish 4.23x
• TP3 expanded: 4.25x area if price breaks the triangle
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4.195 → stay out and wait for reaction at Liquidity 4.170.
2️⃣ Alternative Scenario: Deep Sweep to Liquidity Buy
If OB Bullish 4.20x does not hold and the price breaks down strongly, do not catch the falling knife.
→ Wait for gold to reach Liquidity Buy 4.170
→ Observe reaction: long wick, selling pressure depletes, new HL formation…
Only BUY again when the signal is clear.
If the 4.170 area is broken strongly by an H1 candle → temporary uptrend structure loses effectiveness, reduce volume or stay out until the market stabilizes.
⚠️ Risk Management
This is a trading plan based on an idea – not an immediate entry signal.
Do not BUY directly at the 4.23x resistance area.
Be patient for a pullback to the discount area (4.20x – 4.17x) and always set clear risk.
“Liquidity tells the truth — structure confirms the path.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: H1
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
XAU/USD: Buy Gold on Support Retest, Bullish StructureGold continues to fluctuate within a compression model + ascending support, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and the market wants to accumulate before bouncing to the upper supply zones.
Recent data shows USD cooling as the market increases expectations that the FED will be more dovish → creating a support base for XAU/USD's short-term rise.
📊 Technical Analysis – H1 Frame (MMF Flow)
1️⃣ Key Support:
4,187 – 4,188: BUY zone + lower trendline + strong price reaction.
Price just retested and bounced → confirming active buying remains.
2️⃣ Near Resistance:
4,211 – 4,212: mid-liquidity zone → expected to create HL before breaking the downtrend line.
3️⃣ Main Target Zone:
4,236 → strong resistance, confluence multiple times from the market.
Further: 4,254 → large supply zone, is an extended target if price breaks out.
🧭 Trading Scenario According to MMF
Main Scenario – BUY with Trend
BUY again when price retests 4,187 – 4,188 or
BUY when price breaks 4,212 then retests.
TP Targets:
TP1: 4,212
TP2: 4,236
TP3: 4,254
SL: below 4,182.
Idea: price creates an absorption model + HL on trendline → potential to pull up to the upper liquidity zones.
Secondary Scenario – SELL Reaction
Only for scalp traders:
SELL reaction at 4,236 – 4,238
TP: 4,212
SL: 4,243
🎯 Daily Bias Summary
Bias: Bullish on H1 when price holds 4,187.
Priority: BUY at the bottom – SELL at the top only for scalp.
Wait for the downtrend line to break to extend the target to 4,254.
XAU/USD – Gold Retests Bullish OB, Preparing for a Major Recover📊 Market Structure
After the Liquidity Sweep around the 4,26x highs, Gold shifted into a short-term distribution phase and formed a series of bearish ChoCHs.
However, the entire current decline remains a corrective move, as price is now approaching the Bullish Order Block at 4,155 – 4,158 USD, which is also the primary support of the prevailing trend.
The ascending trendline has not been fully broken → buyers still have structure support.
The main scenario: price may continue sweeping deeper into the Bullish OB, or even tag the Deep OB at 4,129 – 4,130 USD, before initiating a strong bullish recovery.
💎 Key Technical Zones
Bullish OB: 4,155 – 4,158 USD → primary BUY zone
Deep OB: 4,129 – 4,130 USD → safer BUY zone (deep retest)
Bearish OB: 4,211 – 4,213 USD → short-term SELL reaction
Liquidity Above: 4,239 – 4,240 USD
🎯 Trading Plan – Two Clear Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Trend-Following Priority
When price taps the Bullish OB 4,155 – 4,158 and prints a clear rejection candle:
Entry: 4,155 – 4,158
SL: 4,128
TP1: 4,188
TP2: 4,211
TP3: 4,239
TP4: 4,260+
→ A trend-aligned setup: low risk – high reward.
→ If price does not react at the Bullish OB, wait for a deeper BUY at the Deep OB (safer).
2️⃣ SELL Scalp – For Intraday Traders Only
If price retraces into the Bearish OB 4,211 – 4,213 and shows rejection:
Entry: 4,211 – 4,213
SL: 4,225
Short TP: 4,188 → 4,175
→ This is only a reaction play. Do NOT hold long-term since the main trend remains bullish.
🧠 Vincent’s View
Gold is likely in its final corrective phase before starting a new bullish leg.
As long as 4,129 remains intact, buyers maintain full control.
Smart money is likely accumulating around the Bullish OB before pushing price back toward 4,239 – 4,260.
⚡ “Smart money always returns to where strength began — buy where the market was born.”
⏰ Timeframe: H1
📅 Updated: 04/12/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
XAUUSD –| watch reaction at POC – VAL – VAH according to VolumeXAUUSD – Brian | watch reaction at POC – VAL – VAH according to Volume Profile
1. Market snapshot
Gold is entering a redistribution phase in the high price range, with fluctuations mainly revolving around large volume clusters on the Volume Profile. In this context, Brian's current priority scenario is to watch for a Sell when the price approaches the POC / VAL / VAH areas – where the market previously traded heavily.
2. Volume Profile – Notable price areas
POC – VAH area 4.217 is the price area where buyers/sellers previously "struggled" strongly, suitable for looking for sell signals if there is a rejection reaction.
VAL & the support area below around 4.134 is where short-term buying force may appear, suitable for a technical rebound buy scenario.
3. Trading plan (this week)
Scenario 1 – Sell according to Volume Profile (priority)
Sell: 4.217
SL: 4.125
TP: 4.200 – 4.182 – 4.150
Idea: wait for the price to rebound to the POC/VAH area around 4.217, observe the H1/M30 candle reaction. If a clear rejection signal appears (long upper tail, reversal candle...), the sell order can be activated according to the plan.
Scenario 2 – Short buy at VAL/support area
Buy: 4.134
SL: 4.125
TP: 4.155 – 4.180 – 4.200
Idea: if the price adjusts deeply near the VAL area and holds above 4.125, a technical rebound may occur. This is a short buy, not going too far against the trend, prioritizing partial profit-taking when the price returns to the upper POC area.
4. News to watch – Unemployment Claims
Today there are US Unemployment Claims figures, which are quite sensitive data for gold because:
The market will assess the strength/weakness of the US labor market.
Worse-than-expected figures → increase the likelihood of Fed easing → positive for gold.
Better-than-expected figures → support USD, may cause gold to face adjustment pressure.
Therefore, it is advisable to limit new orders close to the news release time, wait for the post-news candle to stabilize, and then reassess the structure.
5. Risk management (user-friendly for phone users)
Sell is the priority scenario but do not overlook SL 4.125, to avoid the case of a strong breakout above the current volume cluster.
With the Buy 4.134 scenario, it is advisable to split TP, move SL to breakeven when the price hits TP1 to reduce the pressure of having to "watch the chart" continuously on the phone.
If D1/H4 closes below the 4.125 area with large volume, Brian will consider it a signal to reduce short-term buying expectations and wait for a clearer new structure.
XAU/USD – Gold Accumulating Before Rising, Monitor BUY at📊 Market Structure
Gold is in an accumulation phase after a short-term drop creating ChoCH at lower price levels.
The current structure shows that the price has formed an Equal High (EqH) around 4,235 – a sign that the market may be holding liquidity above to support the next push.
The price returns to test the area 4,192 – 4,193 USD — this is the nearest support zone, and also the point where previous buying pressure created an upward BoS . If this area continues to hold, the short-term upward structure will be reactivated.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Support Zone (Buy Zone): 4,192 – 4,193 USD
• Invalidation: below 4,170 USD
• Target 1: 4,237 USD
• Target 2: 4,249 USD
• Target 3: 4,264 USD
• Target 4: 4,284 USD
• Liquidity Zone: 4,323 USD
🎯 Trading Plan – BUY Priority
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Retest Support 4,192
If the price retests the area 4,192 – 4,193 and a bullish candlestick signal appears (rejection / engulfing):
• Entry: 4,192 – 4,193
• SL: 4,170
• TP1: 4,237
• TP2: 4,249
• TP3: 4,264
• TP4: 4,284
• TP5: 4,323 (sweep liquidity EqH)
→ This is a setup in line with the short-term trend, as liquidity above the EqH peak remains and is likely to be swept.
2️⃣ SELL Scalp – For Intraday Traders Only
If the price retests higher resistance zones and reacts with a strong decline:
• Waiting SELL Zone:
– 4,249
– 4,264
– 4,284
• Short TP: back to 4,225 – 4,216
→ This setup only trades against the trend when clear rejection is observed.
🧠 Vincent’s View
The current trend still supports the continuation of the upward expansion.
The 4,192 USD area is crucial: holding this area → prioritize BUY; losing this area → the market will need to sweep deeper before rising again.
⚡ “Follow the liquidity — the market always returns to collect what it left behind.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 03/12/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
XAU/USD: Peak Sweep Done, Price Distributing in Premium📊 Market Structure
• After a strong bullish leg, Gold formed a clear Liquidity Sweep at the highs around 4,261 USD (Fibo Sell) , taking out all liquidity above that zone.
• From that high, price gradually weakened and printed a bearish ChoCH (loss of buying pressure; short-term structure no longer clean).
• Price is currently trading inside the premium zone between 4,190 – 4,241:
– 4,241 = Fibo Sell / liquidity extreme .
– 4,225 – 4,216 = lower premium zone , likely to react before retesting the highs.
– 4,190 = Liquidity Sweep + short-term support : only if price breaks below and retests from underneath will this zone flip into resistance for SELL continuation.
⇒ Current picture: short-term bearish bias , but sells should come from the premium zones (4,216–4,241) or only after a confirmed break of 4,190 — avoid chasing mid-range.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Fibo Sell Zone: around 4,241.451 → optimal extreme for hunting SELL setups.
• Reaction Levels:
– 4,225.474
– 4,216.171
• Liquidity Sweep Support: 4,190.485 → main short-term support.
• Support / TP Zones:
– 4,163.586
– 4,155.294 (old OB)
– 4,142.755
– 4,116.058 (deeper low – extended target)
🎯 Trading Plan – SELL Priority From Premium
1️⃣ Primary SELL – Fibo Sell 4,241 & Premium 4,225–4,232
Ideal scenario: price retraces into the upper premium zone and prints a clear rejection signal (pin bar / engulfing / rejection volume).
• Entry 1: 4,225 – 4,232 (first scale-in)
• Entry 2: 4,235 – 4,241 (add if price sweeps higher)
• Stop Loss: above 4,250
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,163
• TP3: 4,155
• TP4: 4,142
• TP5: 4,116
→ Classic “sell the premium” setup: wait for price to return to the swept highs — avoid FOMO in the middle.
2️⃣ SELL Continuation – After Breaking 4,190
Only valid if we get a clear H1 close below 4,190 , confirming the Liquidity Sweep zone has been violated and flipped into resistance.
• Condition: H1 close below 4,190 → wait for a retest of 4,190–4,195 from underneath
• Entry: 4,190 – 4,195
• SL: above 4,205
• TP1: 4,163
• TP2: 4,155
• TP3: 4,142
• TP4: 4,116
→ This setup is only for traders who prefer clean continuation after a confirmed break of support.
3️⃣ Countertrend BUY – Only From Deep Zones
• Aggressive: watch for reactions at 4,163 – 4,155 . If strong rejection appears, consider a technical BUY retracement toward 4,190 – 4,216 (scalp).
• Conservative: wait for a deep test of 4,116 (stronger demand zone) before searching for BUY setups.
→ This is strictly countertrend; only take it if strong confirmation appears. Otherwise, skip and focus on SELL opportunities in premium zones.
🧠 Vincent’s View
Gold is currently “hanging” within premium after a very clean top sweep.
The safest strategy is to let price return to 4,225–4,241 before selling, or wait for a confirmed break of 4,190 to play continuation. Avoid selling directly at 4,190 while it still acts as support.
“Sell the premium, respect the levels – liquidity never lies.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 02/12/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
