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Fundamental Analysis

Economics Cycle | Business Cycle |The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product around its long-term growth trend. The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence. The economic cycle is the fluctuation of the economy between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession). Factors such as gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, total employment, and consumer spending, can help to determine the current stage of the economic cycle FOLLOW & COMMENT & LIKE
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by ReviveTraders
4
Rarest of Rare Double Rounding Bottom with Break n Retest PattrnNSE:GMRINFRA INVESTMENT IDEA // MULTI-BAGGER DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER ➢ AT CURRENT PRICE LEVELS THIS IDEA IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY. DEPENDING ON THE FURTHER PRICE MOVEMENT IN COMING WEEKS OR MONTHS, I MIGHT POST A BUY RECOMMENDATION, ONCE IT FULLY MEETS MY CRITERIA. YOU CAN FOLLOW ME FOR ANY SUCH POST IN FUTURE. ➢ ALL MY IDEAS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET CONDITIONS. PLEASE TRADE / INVEST / FOLLOW / COPY THE IDEA AT YOUR OWN RISK. I DO NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY OF YOUR LOSS OR CREDIT FOR YOUR PROFIT. ➢ I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE ANY PERSONAL INVESTMENTS IN THIS SCRIPT. ➢ AS THE IDEA IS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT AND NOT FOR TRADING. THE IDEA BASED ON BOTH STRONG TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL (QUANTITATIVE) ANALYSIS OF THE STOCK. ➢ ROUNDING BOTTOM STOCKS TEND TO GIVE FALSE BREAKOUTS AT DIFFERENT LEVEL AS THEY TRY TO CROSS MULTIPLE RESISTANCES AT MULTIPLE INSTANCES. THOUGH THE RISK REWARD IS VERY HIGH FOR THESE PATTERNS, IT’S VERY IMPORTANT TO FOLLOW STRICT PRICE LEVELS FOR ENTRY AND EXITS. So let’s begin.... What is a rounding bottom pattern and how it works? In general, as the name suggests, when the stock chart has a curve or rounding shape as marked in the above chart it can be called Rounding Bottom Pattern. This pattern can occur anywhere in a chart and on any type of chart (Intraday, Daily, Weekly, Monthly etc). Though its not simple to use with a thumb rule per say, but an experienced technical trader can easily identify and use it effectively for his trading after several confirmations and combinations, such as price volume breakouts, DEMA crossovers or several other technical indicators. How to identify a multi-bagger with rounding bottom pattern? Just for the beginners, Multi-baggers are generally referred to investment grade stocks that gives returns that are multiple times of the buying price. So if you invest in a stock Rs. 100,000 in XYZ stock and over the period of 2-3 years it is worth of 500,000; The XYZ stock can be called as 5X bagger. So now let’s see what is a Double Rounding Bottom Multi Bagger (DRBMB) with a retest. An DRBMB stock must meet certain criteria, which I am listing as below: (Please select and refer the monthly chart of the stock with full history available) - The stock should have a history of at least 10 years. - In the past, stock price must have performed at least 5 times of the current price levels and fallen from that peak gradually over months / years. - Stock must have made 2 rounding bottom patterns in the time frame of 2-3 years each. - Consolidation breakout as shown in the chart herewith. - Confirmation on fundamentals (as below) Do I need to check Fundamentals of company? - Further to above confirmations, above chart pattern must be backed by the quantitative and qualitative fundamentals of the company. For example, once the consolidation breakout happens the company should start posting positive quarterly earnings every quarter consistently for 2-3 years minimum. - Company should continuously doing reforms such as debt reductions, bagging new orders, promoters releasing their pledging and buying back more stake in the company etc. (If you are not confident of doing the above yourself, for both the above confirmations, you can watch news channels (which I don’t recommend otherwise) and follow the renowned fundamental analysts who will definitely post their views on the stock time to time as it progresses.) Why GMR INFRA? In my view, GMR INFRA is a potential DRBMB which can qualify all the above criteria and can become a wealth creator over the period of 3-5 years. When should I start and stop tracking? Easiest way is to follow me, as I will be posting updates on this post so you can be well aware about the entry point and exit points. Other option is to follow the below quick price level summary by putting level alerts: LTI Educational Call // Dated: 21 / 09 / 2020 NSE: GMRINFRA LTP: 23.95 ENTRY: When Monthly closing is above 30.00 EXIT (STOP LOSS): When Monthly closing is below 25.00 (@20%) (If you need accurate SL / Exit when MONTHLY 5 EMA crosses below MONTHLY 26 EMA) TARGET 1: 80.00 (3x times of Entry Price within in 1 Year) TARGET 2: 120.00 (3x times of Entry Price within 2 Years) TARGET 3: Follow me... :-) Are there any references or examples of such patterns? Check out the stock TANLA SOLUTIONS (NSE: TANLA) for the similar chart pattern. Would there be any opportunities of short term / swing trading in this stock? Yes, once the stock is closed above 200 Monthly EMA there will be ample opportunities of swing trading and short term trading as well. HAPPY INVESTMENTS & TRADING!!
NSE:GMRAIRPORTEducation
by Amit_Padishalwar
4
GOLD BULLISH Gold Price Outlook: FOMC Rate Decision May Ignite XGold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Most commonly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by mufspm999
SGXNifty vs Nifty50The difference is mentioned on the chart. As you can see the white line which represents Nifty50 is flushed together against the price movement of the SGXNifty. Traders use this instrument to gather a sense of the direction of the market for the day. This is not a sure shot method of determining the open or the direction, but it offers a good indication. Today, the SGXNifty is trading about 20 points lower (7:45am), indicating a flat open for the day. When you come into the market with a bias, this can either confirm or reject that bias and help you create a more accurate trade plan for the day.
NSEIX:NIFTY1!Education
by ArcherDAVIS
2
A LOW RISK - MULTI-BAGGER - PENNY STCK AT BOTTOM?? Techno Funda Weekend Educational Idea: Indian Overseas Bank // FIBONACCI AND 8 EMA Band Combo I have been tracking this stock for quite some time now and today finally it has given me a Techno-Funda Buy Signal on my Algos. This makes me post this Educational Idea. I don't recommend to buy penny stocks just because of their ticket size, but looking at the charts indicators and the basic fundamental analysis of the stock, this particular scrip can propel to the higher levels pretty fast and makes a perfect candidate for swing trading and short term trading. Moreover the Risk Reward is excellent (1:3), which I consider as the most important parameter in a trade and investment. At this moment, this is purely an EDUCATION IDEA and NOT A BUYING RECOMMENDATION . In coming days I will post more precise Targets and Stop Loss for recommending firm trades. Traders who love to invest / trade in penny stocks, can take paper trade or trade with small capital (1% of your trading capital) to learn the technique. EDUCATIONAL / PAPER TRADE: Call for Monday August 24th 2020 // This is a swing trade call and not an intra-day trade // NSE: NSE:IOB CMP / LTP: 11.7 IDEAL BUYING RANGE*: 11-12 1st TARGET: 13+ (10% Around) In 5-10 Trading Sessions // 2nd TARGET: 17+ (45%) In Short Term 3-4 Months STOP LOSS: 9.9 (15 % Max) HAPPY TRADING AND INVESTING!!
NSE:IOBEducation
by Amit_Padishalwar
1
POSITIONAL STOCKS FOR 2-3 MONTHWe have shortlisted some stocks as per the fundamental analysis for the positional trading but we do not enter into any trade with only fundamental. We use our trading strategy to enter into the trade and the strategy based on price action technical analysis. We always wait for our setup to enter into the trade. We take the trade only if the particular stock meets all our entry criteria, Most of the time we take entries in a lower timeframe like 15 minute or 1-hour timeframe. There are lots of research behind the stock selection and the trading strategy, So please do not invest without proper knowledge, Do your own research before investing or trading. And this list will be updated according to the market movement. These are the stock list for the month 1  - SPENCERS RETAILS 2 - CESC 3 - GRUH FINANCE 4 - CHALET HOTELS 5 - PAGE INDUSTRIES 6 - BERGER PAINTS
NSE:CESCEducation
by MarketNeeti
NIFTY OVERVALUED: Fundamental Approach.Is NIFTY' OVERVALUED? Fundamental View Based on P/E, P/B, Div'. Yld. (A) Nifty' 50’s Price to Earnings (P/E) Price-to-Earnings ratio (P/E) of the NIFTY' is a simple market-valuation ratio. A general guideline to help understand the valuation is: P/E > 24 = Dangerously overvalued P/E > 20 < 24 = Overvalued P/E > 16 < 20 = Fairly valued P/E > 12 < 16 = Undervalued P/E < 12 = Highly undervalued (mouthwatering valuations) Current: 28.11 (MAX was 28.26 on 06 & 07th aug '18) (B) Nifty' 50’s P/B (Price to Book value) Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B) tells us how many times an investor is ready to pay for a rupee of net assets. Since book value is stable and less volatile than earnings, some consider it better than the P/E as a measure of valuation. If P/B > Median P/B = Overvalued P/B < Median P/B = Undervalued Current: NIFTY' 50's P/B: 3.74 > Median P/B: 3.4 (OVERVALUED) (C) Nifty' 50’s Dividend Yield (Div'. Yld.) Dividend Yield (Div'. Yld.) is nothing but the return an investor gets in the form of dividend on his investment. It is measured as dividend per share divided by price per share. General Interpretation: When stocks are cheap, dividend yields are high. #1. Div'. Yld > Median dividend yield => Undervalued #2. Div'. Yld < Median dividend yield => Overvalued Current Scenario: 1.17, Median Div' Yld: 1.31 Fulfill Criteria #2. Hence Verdict: "OVERVALUED" Historical Ref.: MAX - 2.24%, Min - 0.90% Technical View: Nifty'50 seems to have exhausted its momentum in the near term. Time cycle suggests a sharp correction is overdue. The upward channel is acting as a strong resistance and it seems that the market will respect the same. The oscillators have turned distinctly negative (mentioned "MACD" in Chart), suggesting loss of momentum on the upside. For Intra / Weekly levels refer "NIFTY: Week Ahead, Spot & FUT Levels Weekly(20/08/18) Basis" If useful, don't forget to to Click in Like button.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by DSKF16
8
INDIA Vix and Options - Theoretical ApproachINDIA VIX and Options - Theoretical Approach. What is relation between the volatility index (VIX) and the options pricing. In Black Scholes model of options pricing, the call and put options pricing is dependent on following 5 factors: 1) Price of the underlying 2) Strike price 3) Risk free rate of interest 4) Time to expiry 5) Volatility Out of these five factors, first four are factual in nature. We all know the price of the underlying, strike price, risk free rate of interest, time to expiry at the time of writing an option. What you don’t know is the Volatility in the near future and thus it is somewhat subjective in nature and derives from the anxiety or fear of the option writer. This volatility is called implied volatility and it reflects the sentiment of a option writer. If the option writer thinks that in the near future the volatility is going to be high, he would demand higher premium for writing an option and thus the prices of the options will be higher. On the other hand if he thinks the volatility is going to be lower, he will demand lesser premium for the options and thus lower option prices. Now if we consider all the option writers present in the market. There would be millions of such people and if we try to calculate the average volatility from the options they have written, we can get a value which can describe the overall sentiments of the market about volatility. This is what Volatility Index really tells us. It uses the prices of the options to guess the future volatility, ofcourse, after doing several other operations as well but in a nutshell, it is the reverse process of option pricing taken all the options being traded into account and thus calculating the sentiment of the entire market. We can read the exact method of calculating India VIX here. Now what does a particular value of the India VIX indicates? Value of India VIX at the time of writing this article (24/08/17) is 12.5725 which means people are thinking that over the next 30 days markets can move up or down by 3.6293% and demanding premium as per this value. Low value of VIX indicates stability in the market while higher value indicated stress, fear and anxiety. Since, the investors are more fearful of the downside, VIX is negatively correlated to the stock market index like Nifty or Sensex which means as the market index drops the VIX value increases & vice-versa. Try to post another article, discussing the correlation between India VIX and Nifty and how VIX can be used as a hedging tool once India VIX futures and options are introduced.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by DSKF16
4