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Fundamental Analysis

potential turnaround stockReasons to consider investment 1. Promoter group is going to subscribe to warrants that will take its shareholding up from 27% to 41% 2. Company is set to receive 5000 crores INR from a decade long legal battle with Longshen/Senda over its minority shareholding in Dystar. 3. Company is going to enter into an unrelated sector of copper rod mfg and fertilizer mfg. 4. Promoters have executed a loan facility to most likely start the construction of the copper rod and fertilizer plant after execution of an MOU 2 years back with the gujarat state govt. However, the EC for the project maybe still hanging in the balance. 5. Dystar enbloc sale process has started by Deloitte on courts directive and is expected to close in 6 to 9 months.. the aggrieved party has approached the supreme court of Singapore for challenging priority payment to Kiri out of the sale proceeds of Dystar..therefore there will not be rollback of liquidation of Dystar..it is a question of how the cake is to be divided between the owners if the sale price is below a certain value. Fair warning: Promoter integrity is something that we have to take individual call on. If Dystar sale is delayed the payout to Kiri will be delayed. Other legal wrangles that can comeup. Clarity on the EC to the greenfield project of copper rod and fertilizer. Even if all of the above happens this is a long term investment idea, i.e., 4 to 5 years
NSE:KIRIINDUSLong
by Rocky_Chow
Turning Bullish: Karur Vysya Bank (KVB)KVB has turned bullish by taking strong support from 206 levels. It broke the previously held strong resistance of 215 and trading near 219 levels. Strong bullish momentum is visible in short, medium, and long-term moving averages. Pros based on the research from fundamental analysis: Increasing Net Cash Flow and Operating Cash. High TTM EPS Growth company. Recent quarters showed good growth. In the last two years, RoCE has improved. Effective use of shareholders funds—ROE up in previous two years. ROA has increased over the past two years due to efficient asset management. Increased Quarterly Net Profit and Profit Margin. Low-Debt Company. Revenue growth every quarter for 4 quarters. Profit growth every quarter for 4 quarters. Solid core business cash generation—improving cash flow from operation for 2 years. The company has improved its net cash flow for 2 years. Two years of rising annual net profits. 2 years of increasing book value per share. Declining Promoter Pledge Company. Revised Target: 270
NSE:KARURVYSYALong
by shanmurali
Turning Bullish: CDSLCDSL has turned bullish by taking support around 1485 levels. It has bullish momentum Above Short, Medium and Long Term Moving Averages. The stock has a strong resistance around 1665 levels. Support levels: 1485, 1390, 1290, 1193 levels. Target levels: 2000 - 2370 (one year) based on fundamental analysis. Pros: * FII/FPI have increased holdings from 11.38% to 14.00% in Jun 2024 qtr. * Institutional Investors have increased holdings from 34.52% to 38.92% in Jun 2024 qtr. * Reported high TTM EPS Growth. * Strong growth in Quarterly Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (YoY).
NSE:CDSLLong
by shanmurali
E-Waste Management Stock:Eco Recycling LtdEco Recycling Ltd is India's premier E-waste management company providing comprehensive solutions including Reverse Logistics, Data Destruction, Information Technology Asset Disposition (ITAD), E-waste Recycling, Lamp Recycling, Precious Metal Recovery, and the implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, as well as Recycling on Wheels-SmartER. You can enter if the support level 927 is retained on weekly closing. Key Points: ECORECYCLING has significantly (24%) fallen from the all-time high of 1214. It is currently trading around 927 levels. Resistance levels: 1045 Support zones: 899, 820,749 levels Pros: * Company with high TTM EPS Growth * Strong Annual EPS Growth * Increasing Net Profit and Profit Margin QoQ * Company with No Debt, Increasing Revenue for the last four Quarters, and Zero Promoter Pledge. * YoY operating profit growth with higher margins
BSE:ECORECOLong
by shanmurali
Turning Bullish: COAL INDIACoal India has turned bullish recently. The stock is trading around key level of 506. Resistance levels: 521, 537 Support levels: 484, 459, 436, 408. You can enter for long-term partially. However, if 20 EMA (Black line) crosses above 50 EMA (Orange trend) along with good volume, we can confirm the bullish trend. Pros: The company is almost free of debt. The stock offers a commendable dividend yield of 5.03%. The company has an excellent return on equity (ROE) history. Three-Year Return on Equity: 52.8% The company has maintained a robust dividend distribution of 49.8%.
NSE:COALINDIALong
by shanmurali
Dividend Star: Chennai Petroleum Corporation LtdCPCL has taken strong support from 872 levels. It is trading near 20 EMA levels of 923. Resistance levels: 1002, 1072, 1217 Support levels: 899, 797 One can accumulate for the long term for a good dividend yield. Pros: The company has decreased its debt. The stock offers a commendable dividend yield of 5.98%. The company has achieved a commendable profit increase of 71.2% CAGR during the last five years. The company has a commendable history of return on equity (ROE). Three-Year Return on Equity: 53.9%
NSE:CHENNPETROLong
by shanmurali
1
Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances. Technical levels to watch With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out. Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders. What next? A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
XAUUSD - Financial Insights 26/09/2024Summary: Things are getting worse, slowly but worse, XAUUSD will reach 3K at the end of this year 1. Title: Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time Source: Bloomberg Problem: China's economy faces a deflationary slump due to a property market crash, weak consumer demand, and trade tensions. Solution: The central bank launched aggressive easing measures, including interest rate cuts, more liquidity, and housing incentives. Result: Markets surged, but economists warn these actions provide only temporary relief without deeper reforms. Prediction: Further fiscal policies and structural reforms are needed to avoid long-term stagnation and drive sustainable growth. 2. Title: China Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Ever in Stimulus Drive Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Chinese economy faces potential deflationary pressures, prompting the need for significant monetary stimulus. Solution: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the medium-term lending facility rate by 30 basis points to 2%, initiating a broader stimulus package to boost economic confidence. Result: The yuan strengthened, and Chinese stocks gained, with expectations for further monetary easing, including future rate cuts on reverse repurchase notes. Prediction: Analysts anticipate additional rate reductions and liquidity measures to support the economy, aligning funding costs more closely with market rates in the coming months. 3. Title: OECD Upgrades UK Growth by Most in G-7, Warns on Inflation Source: Bloomberg Problem: UK faces high inflation, with the BOE struggling to meet its 2% target. Solution: The government plans to increase investment, focusing on infrastructure and the green transition. Result: UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but inflation remains high. Prediction: BOE may delay interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and wage pressures. 4. Title: Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth Source: Bloomberg Problem: The global economy faces risks from geopolitical tensions, soft labor markets, and potential financial market upheaval as inflation eases. Solution: Central banks can cautiously cut interest rates while monitoring data closely, avoiding rapid reductions. Result: OECD projects global growth to stabilize at 3.2% for 2024, with moderating inflation expected in G20 nations by the end of 2025. Prediction: While growth forecasts for the US and euro area remain steady, the OECD warns of significant risks that could impact the global economic outlook. 5. Title: Danish Central Bank Slashes Inflation Forecasts as Wages Cool Source: Bloomberg Problem: The Danish labor market pressure has eased, but there are concerns about potential inflationary risks from the government's proposed 2025 budget. Solution: The central bank has reduced its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, anticipating slower wage growth due to a less tight labor market. Result: Inflation is now forecasted at 1.3% for 2024 (down from 2.2%) and 2.1% for 2025 (down from 2.6%), indicating a more stable economic environment. Prediction: The central bank warns against loosening fiscal policy too soon, as it could destabilize the current balance in the labor market. 6. Title: BOE’s Greene Calls for ‘Cautious’ Approach to Rate Cuts Source: Bloomberg Problem: Strong wage growth and resilient economic activity pose risks, prompting concerns about inflation remaining sticky in the UK. Solution: BOE policymaker Megan Greene advocates for a cautious and gradual approach to interest rate cuts, ensuring that inflationary pressures have subsided before making significant changes. Result: The market reflects skepticism about immediate rate cuts, with current pricing suggesting a cut in November but a 60% chance of a follow-up in December. Prediction: Greene emphasizes the need for ongoing observation of wage trends and consumer spending to gauge future monetary policy adjustments. 7. Title: Fed's Bumper Rate Cut Revives 'Reflation Specter' in US Bond Market Source: Reuters Problem: The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts raise concerns about re-igniting inflation in the U.S. economy. Solution: The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut aims to recalibrate its approach, focusing on maintaining a strong labor market while managing inflation. Result: U.S. bond yields have risen as investors reassess inflation expectations, reflecting uncertainty over future economic conditions. Prediction: A gradual return to higher inflation could impact bond markets, and the central bank may need to adjust its strategy if inflation does not remain subdued. 8. Title: Investing.com Poll: Where do you see gold prices by the end of 2024? Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices have recently surged, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and investor sentiment. Solution: Analysts expect ongoing rate reductions, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset. Result: Gold prices have rallied over 5% this month, defying historical trends for September. Prediction: While traders anticipate potential cooling in gold returns, any downside is likely to be limited, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for the metal. 9. Title: With Fed Easing Underway, What's Next for Markets? UBS Weighs In Source: Investing.com Problem: The recent rate cut by the Fed raises questions about future economic conditions and market stability. Solution: UBS believes the rate cut signals a willingness to support the economy, but emphasizes the need for clear labor market data to ensure a soft landing. Result: Markets have reacted positively to the rate cut, but uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate impact on growth and inflation. Prediction: A "Roaring '20s" scenario is considered an upside risk, but market volatility could re-emerge as investors seek clarity on the economy's trajectory. 10. Will Fed policy trigger a US recession? Claudia Sahm: Does not believe the US is currently in a recession, despite her namesake "Sahm rule" being triggered. Is concerned about the direction of economic indicators, with payroll gains slowing and unemployment rising. Puts higher odds of recession now than earlier in the cycle, but doesn't provide a specific percentage. Believes the Fed is at risk of making an "unforced policy error" if they don't cut rates soon enough, potentially leading to an unnecessary recession. Bill Dudley: Puts 50-60% odds of a recession in the next 12 months. Believes the Fed is "a bit behind the curve" in reducing interest rates given increased economic risks. Thinks a soft landing is possible but historically difficult for the Fed to achieve. Expects any potential recession to be mild due to strong household and business balance sheets. Rob Kaplan: Seems less concerned about recession risk than Dudley. Believes the job market is softening as intended, but not "falling out of bed." Thinks the Fed may be tactically behind by "a meeting or two" but not strategically behind. Expects the Fed to likely cut rates in September, November, and December, despite potentially hawkish rhetoric. 11. Title: Powell Emerges Stronger After Leading Fed to Big Rate Cut Source: Bloomberg Problem: Federal Reserve officials were divided on how aggressively to cut interest rates, amidst weak jobs data and inflation pressures easing. Solution: Chair Jerome Powell advocated for a significant 50 basis point rate cut to safeguard against potential risks to the labor market. Result: The majority of Fed officials supported the larger cut, reflecting Powell's strengthened leadership and consensus around his approach to manage economic risks. Prediction: If labor market data continues to disappoint, another substantial rate cut could occur in the future, as Powell aims to ensure a soft landing for the economy. 12. Title: Gold price consolidates below all-time peak, awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech Source: Investing.com Problem: Gold prices are confined below their all-time peak due to rising US yields and a strong USD, creating uncertainty in the market. Solution: Traders are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other influential FOMC members, which may influence expectations for another 50 bps rate cut in November. Result: Current gold prices are stable around $2,650, supported by dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions. Prediction: Upcoming economic data and Powell’s speech will be critical in determining gold's direction, with potential fluctuations as traders evaluate the likelihood of further rate cuts and their impacts on market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheChartist_Code2trade