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Can you predict such falls? Fibonacci Retracements - (bad audio)Market fall may have taken few by surprise, but followers of price action techniques should have this scenario in their plan. Trend analysis (or Elliot wave analysis) along with Fib Retracements could be of enormous help if used in tandem with price action. They at least give you minimum target and levels, so that you are able to ride the trend and also do not make impulsive entry decisions. (Disclaimer: the audio quality is really bad. Somehow the system is not allowing external mic and using internal mic which is capturing lot of noise. Tried typical methods but not working. If you have solution let me know)
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by jay21shah
HDFC Bank - Options Strategy Executed in my Account -- Outcome HDFC BANK - OPTIONS STRATEGY EXECUTED IN MY ACCOUNT --OUTCOME Lessons: Even though the max loss was only 4500, I ended up registering almost 4 times the loss. This indicates that there is no fixed risk thing in trading especially when exiting a trade is an issue. My view on the scrip and the Bull CE spread was a hit as HDFC Bank hit a high of 1725 on 18-10-21. When I looked at the spot, I checked the Strategy PNL and it was giving me close 5600-5700 gain. So without much thinking, I exited the Short Call as that is the SOP. The exit was almost immediate and I was happy as the liquidity was in place which is a must for exits. My intended exit was at 81 when the Long CE was around 93. However, I had to make one adjustment to exit the Short CE. By this time, the price had started the free fall. The next I did was I placed an order at 81 as that is where the last trade was made. I was unsuccessful as the premium fell further. I placed another Limit Sell Order at 77, 74, 71, and 67 but of no use. None of my orders got executed and I was already in a loss by then. HDFC Bank then started recovering and I held on to the Long CE - "In the Hope of it giving me at least a modest gain". I held on to the CE only because the EOD prices were higher than the day low. Even when Nifty fell on 20-10-21, this Option was doing alright and it appeared that I may be able to get a break-even exit. Even on 21-10-21, there was no issue as such but then as Nifty was recovering, HDFC Bank started to fall. This drove the premium down sharply and I had to make a tough call to place a Limit Sell Order at the Bid price to get "rid" of the CE. On 18-10-21 itself, I had tried to exit at the market price, but Zerodha did not allow stating that it is an illiquid option. So I learned very expensive lessons on the strategy. I have been quite successful in executing strategies so far. This trade was taken by me after a gap of 9 months. This trade was done with the results and I have till now not done such a trade. So I guess, I paid the price for it. In hindsight, so many things could have been done. However, I have presented to you the reality as it hit my PNL. With this dent, I am in no mood to take a real trade related to results-based Option Strategies. I will now do a better job when Q3 results are announced in Jan 2022. And as if what I endured was not enough, come Friday the 22-10-21 and HDFC Bank shot up to 1708 and the corresponding high of the CE that I was struggling to exit was 88!! So I was hit for not being able to hold on to a position for one more night and by 35*550 = 19250INR. This means I would have banked around 3K gains. All this is the 20/20 vision in hindsight and what happened was like - the water down the bridge. I can only keep learning and improving. What do you feel about this? How you would have handled this situation? Please share your thoughts as I am all ears and eyes open to learn and understand different perspectives. I wish you greater success in trading! Umesh 23-10-21
NSE:HDFCBANK
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
HDFC Bank - Real Options Strategy ExecutedHDFC BANK - OPTIONS STRATEGY EXECUTED IN MY ACCOUNT While I was getting ready to write a post cum video on the Infosys Strategy, I looked at my holdings and realized that HDFC Bank was once again at a make-or-break juncture - 1630. It has turned down from this level quite a few times. So exited half my position at the price and banked the gains. This helped me regain objectivity related to the scrip. And immediately, I thought of checking if I could fund a Bull Call Spread in HDFC Bank with the proceeds that I received from the sale of equity in part. I know smart readers are now calculating how many shares I would have sold and that is OK! I like that kind of approach as it would help you develop your mind to your benefit. I also do such things so I know this is a natural reaction. HDFC Bank is behaving like TCS as it is trying to scale higher highs as it gets ready to face the results that are due on 15-10-21. I know it is a bit too early to execute a strategy for the results but I had the funds today so for me, today was a good day. I chose to create a Bull CE Spread as under:-- Long 1620 CE at 44.30 Short 1640 CE at 36.05 When I executed the strategy, the spot was at 1629.65-1630. EOD is at the same level and my strategy is at cost. Please have a look at the video to know more about the details. In case you are reading this on your mobile App, you may not see the link. Please use a web version and you will see the video link in it. This issue has been flagged with Investing.com already. I will get back to you on 18-11-21 as that is when the scrip would react to the Q2 results. If you want to test a strategy like this, please remember that I am sharing this only for educational and informational purposes only. I believe that by sharing to the extent I can via such posts and videos, even I am able to improve my learnings and readings of the market. Please take good care of you capital as you would be in the game as long as your capital is alive - money would eventually come in once you are good at the process that you end up developing for yourself. Till we meet again, Please keep learning, implementing & making money! Best wishes, Umesh 12-10-21
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
4
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post. TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach. Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+. I have chosen to track the following strategies: Bull Call Spread: In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events. Outcome: At 1100hours = Spread Value When Created = 14 At 1100h = 03 Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000 ROI = -4% ATM Short Straddle: In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video. The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level. Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event. At 1100hours = Straddle Value When Created = 225 At 1100h = 293 Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money. Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400 Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000 ROI = -5.83% I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned! Till then, Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it! Best wishes. Umesh 8-10-21 & 11-10-21
NSE:TCS
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17810.55 H 17857.55 L 17763.80 C 17790.35 EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82% SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle. The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively. It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800. The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20 Net = +78 POSITIVES Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do. ICICI Bank closed above 700. Reliance held on to the greener zone. HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels. NEGATIVES HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750. Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21 Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday. The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods. Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 7-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
BANK NIFTY heavyweights drag NIFTY in to a Red CloseNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -22-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17580.9 / 17610.45 / 17524 / 17546.65 H-L = 86 points VIX 16.49 / -0.18% FII DII: Not available till 1845h. May be flat to negative. SGX NIFTY at 1830h - 17587 +33points Likely open: Flat to mild positive. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and then around 17530, buying stated and then the index was on a choppy ride for rest of the day. It was a very narrow range day - 86 points only. Late sell-off in BANK NIFTY dragged the index below P Close and ended the day just below 17550. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 20 TECH MAHINDRA 10 TATA MOTORS 08 JSW STEEL 07 HINDALCO 05 TOTAL 50 The Draggers HDFC BANK 24 HDFC 22 ICICI BANK 18 NESTLE 08 KOTAK BANK 08 TOTAL 80 Lifter - Draggers = -30 POSITIVES RELIANCE and MARUTI also helped NIFTY. Despite NIFTY being choppy, RELIANCE was level-headed and that saved the day for NIFTY. 17500 levels were held on for the day despite severe selling in the banks. NIFTY made a higher high and a higher low. NEGATIVES BANK NIFTY easily gave up 37000 on a closing basis. Private banks were under severe pressure. HDFC is under serious selling pressure as every rise is sold in to. TRADING RANGE FOR 23-09-21 17300-17350 is now restored as the support line. Resistances at 17600-30-700. BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37000-200-500. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag today as well. I now feel that the scrip would go up only late on Friday or next week. Tomorrow is the last day for Option Buyers to exit trades in Stock Options without attracting additional margins. This is what I have been observing for some time now - I myself being one such trader. NIFTY 17500 CE is now priced in line with the underlying. Usually, this should happen closer to the EOD on the weekly expiry day. The range for NIFTY was quite narrow and if someone was able to make even modest gains in CE / PE long, the person is quite good at picking the levels. BANK NIFTY and HDFC BANK charts look more or less similar on 5 minutes chart. I was trading both so I know. It was interesting to see how a scrip can move the index on its own weight. After 1515h, I could see that there was some adjustment in the Option prices of 37100 CE as even though BANK NIFTY went down and then recovered, the corresponding premium appreciated instead of going down. Most interestingly, even though the European markets are good green, our markets ended in the red. So will the indices play a catch-up game tomorrow? What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 22-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT