Reversal pattern with smc techniquehow market get reverse from a downtrend to uptrend with a liquidity sweep + with mss & ob retest with fvg fill of 0.78 fib level
a trend change reversal
Htfanalysis
HTF - GOLD - HAS LOST ITS SHINE?My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular precious metal "GOLD / XAU" could look like.
For this I have carried out a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month - week - day) and thus makes the big picture visible.
Normally, all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.
> We traders know that nobody can predict the future, and that's exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.
> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.
> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.
> I have explained in detail which levels are RELEVANT in the following pages. .
table of contents
1st part = INTRODUCTION
2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame
= Dayly - Time frame
3rd part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"INTRODUCTION"
After "XAU/USD" formed a double top between 2020-2022, a strong sell-off has been unleashed thereafter.
> This sell-off paused in October this year to test the strength of it.
> With a subsequent bullish monthly candle, many retail investors now feel on the safe side that new highs will be reached.
> Here I do not want to take away the joy, but the big picture does not suggest anything like that.
> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher timeframes, the following sell-off in gold is "indirectly" confirmed.
(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)
GOLD SAFE HARBOUR .
If you follow popular wisdom, GOLD is classified as a safe and reliable haven.
SPEAKING LIKE ...
> "All that glitters is not gold."
> "Talk is silver, silence is gold."
> "Much gold, much future."
That, the precious metal gold got such a high value awarded - HAD - its reasons.
> Inflation protection and security - are definitely the two most associated words with this precious metal.
Unfortunately, at the latest, since the year 2021, this no longer seems to apply.
> If one compares the loss of inflation and the gain in value of gold, a significant gap can be seen, at which there can no longer be any talk of "inflation compensation".
> Gold will therefore no longer live up to its reputation and a rethinking of its value will have to take place in the future.
SECOND PART
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.
> MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level
These are divided into
> SUMMARY > CHARTS
The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.
1st MONTH – Time frame
SUMMARY
The trend channel plotted on the chart formed in March|2007 and has since maintained its position as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.
> Price is in the area below the mean line and had last touched the channel in 2018.
> September|2020 the price ran into the mid-line but was not strong enough. This becomes very clear when looking at the moving away middle line despite the "double top".
> The trend arc is another resistance, which should be taken into account for a future downward movement.
If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at two zones in the chart.
> The "SUPPLY" zone is VERY STRONG because it is a RBD (Rally Base Drop).
> The "DEMAND" zone is VERY WEAK, as it is a DBD (Drop-Base-Drop).
> If we get another rise in the DXY, the drawn "DEMAND" zone will break and the sell-off will continue.
The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been proved in past moves (last decades) .
> Should the price rise even further, FIB (1) will serve as a Strong Resistance Zone, although the "FIB Zone = 0.75-0.88 - is the Strongest Resistance. (1)
> If the sell-off continues, FIB (2) cannot do much in the monthly chart, but if necessary there will be a reaction on the "smaller" time levels.
> The FIB (3) = 1.618 level, will resemble a large magnet and in combination with the FIB (4), will trigger a large resistance reaction in the market.
Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance / support, of which we have three.
> HIGH | 08/20 - Already showed a reaction (double top).
> HIGH | 09/11 - Point of Control
> LOW | 03/21 - Broken and recaptured
Points and levels of interest are in front of us, which have played a strong role for the market since 2011 .
> The most significant resistance, represents the plotted - POI (1800 USD), which is still contested at the time of this analysis.
> The other POIs have non-negligible resistance and support characteristics and should be kept in mind.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Trend lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Market Structure Break
XAU - Fibonacci
XAU - POI
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
2nd WEEK – Time frame
SUMMARY
In addition to the already mentioned trend channel, now three more become visible, which may have escaped the one or the other.
> The "Purple" trend channel formed at the same time as its big brother (monthly channel) and thus represents a major significance for the market.
We are at the middle line of the channel and the market seems to have used it as support.
> The "Turquoise" trend channel accompanies us since the last high and has a big say with its many interactions.
My guess is that its resistance line will decide whether the sell-off will continue or be broken with confirmation.
> The "Earth-colored" trend channel is a small sideways accumulation and accompanies us in this area.
Currently, the price has fought its way back into the channel, confirmed it and is now targeting the top of the sideways channel.
> The "Orange colored" trend line , has been respected since 2018, 07|2022 broken.
The price suggests that the trend line is approaching for a final retest.
The additional "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones join the two existing ones and remain untouched.
As additional Fibonacci additions, we have:
> The 0.88 FIB (1), combined with the levels from the FIB (2). This represents with the 0.88 levels from FIB (2) - two very relevant resistance ranges.
> FIB (3) is only valid if the price does not rise further and therefore the input values do not change. Should this be the case, the 0.786 + 0.88 area is the most important to watch out for.
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture
XAU - Overall picture + Month
XAU - Trend Channels + Trend Lines
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES
XAU - Fibonacci
ATTENTION
In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. .
3rd DAY – Time frame
SUMMARY
The chart shows a falling triangle which has been broken .
> As a result, the price has confirmed this break, with a close at the break point.
> At this time level, there will be a sell-off, especially if the DXY rises.
To give a little comment on the "Supply & Demand" zones:
> The upper two "SUPPLY" zones are definitely very strong. 1800 + 1980.
> The bottom "DEMAND" zone is very strong, as it is a DBR (Drop-Base-Rally) zone. (ca. 1640 - ca. 1615)
> The "DEMAND" zones in between are incidental, will trigger small reactions on the lower time frames, but nothing significant. (ca. 1760 - ca. 1660)
CHARTS
XAU - Overall picture + Month + Week
XAU - Supply & Demand ZONES + Trend Lines
THIRD PART
CONCLUSION
"The central banks, themselves, are behind the gold price manipulation. What should you get out of it?"
Run this question through your head and let me know in the comments what you think is more likely.
> Another sell-off or a positive gold price for now?
In summary, based on technical analysis, there are a few reasons for a weak GOLD price .
> If you look at the area between 1,950 USD - 1,840 USD, it almost seems like an arm guarding the upper levels.
> To bring down this defense, I think, needs more momentum than what we have and are getting right now. (Christmas, New Year, Chinese New Year)
For this reason, I expect a weak gold rate and a strong USD, and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT .
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and happy trading!
Nifty HTF CHart - Use this with DTF BLUEPRINTUse this in conjunction with DTF blue print. Link below
Nifty Trading Plan - 29th JulySummary
► DTF is in area with "BEARISH HAMMER", which infers "sellers dominant" bias".
► Pivot analysis infers TRADING RANGE bias.
► CPR is in "LOWER VALUE WIDE RANGE" relationship.
► Support levels 15605/15578
► Resistance levels 15778/15735.
FII have sold total of 18300 crores in total for this month. SO, my suggestion it would be better if we take short trades.
► TRADING PLAN ACCURACY DATA SHEET - docs.google.com
**********************************************************************************
Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15714 is stop of 15692 and target of 15753. (Scalp)
2. Any bullish PA above 15586 is stop of 15559 and target of 115626745.
3. Any bearish PA below 15740 is stop of 15762 and target of 15705. (Scalp)
4. Any bearish PA below 15635 is stop of 15657 and target of 15599.
Two rules that I follow religiously while trading
► Don’t trade until 9:30, unless it’s a trending day.
► Once you Reach 1:1 RR ratio move u SL to cost and book 50% if you are conservative trader.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey.
Nifty Trading plan - 28th july
Summary
► DTF is in area with "MARUBUZZO", which infers "sellers dominant" bias".
► Pivot analysis infers TRADING RANGE bias.
► CPR is in "LOWER VALUE WIDE RANGE" relationship.
► Support levels 15696/15656
► Resistance levels 15793/15778.
Don't rush into taking trades. since, its trading range day. wait for extra confirmation.
Most of traders make money on TRENDING DAY and lose on TRADING RANGE DAY. Don't be that guy!
TRADING PLAN ACCURACY DATA SHEET - docs.google.com
**********************************************************************************
Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15796 is stop of 15774 and target of 15818. (Scalp)
2. Any bullish PA above 15716 is stop of 15695 and target of 15745.
3. Any bearish PA below 15815 is stop of 15829 and target of 15792. (Scalp)
4. Any bearish PA below 15688 is stop of 15662 and target of 15707.
Two rules that I follow religiously while trading
► Don’t trade until 9:30, unless it’s a trending day.
► Once you Reach 1:1 RR ratio move u SL to cost and book 50% if you are conservative trader.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey.
Nifty Trading plan - 27th July Summary
► DTF is in area with "Bearish Doji", which infers "sellers being dominant" bias".
► Pivot analysis infers sideways/breakout bias. But, ADR is pretty high hence, big whipsaws are possible, but one sided moves are of low probability.
► CPR is in "UNCHANGED VALUE" relationship, which suggests breakout or sideways tomorrow.
► Support levels 15735/15700
► Resistance levels 15895/15941.
► FII sold 2376 crores, second highest in this month. So, below point is kind of getting true.
► I am repeating what I said on 14th July. " Market in DTF market is moving sideways which infers STAGE 3 as per Stan Weinstein methodology, which means all big folks are selling their shares to retail folks hence, expect correction".
► I may think of creating a strategy to go short on positional in INDEX with proper hedge. This is just a plan and not in motion yet.
**********************************************************************************
Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15908 is stop of 15887 and target of 15941. (Scalp)
2. Any bullish PA above 15946 is stop of 15923 and target of 15991.
3. Any bearish PA below 15825 is stop of 15847 and target of 15799. (Scalp)
4. Aggressive short below 15807 is short with stop of 15822 and target of 15756.
Two rules that I follow religiously while trading
► Don’t trade until 9:30, unless it’s a trending day.
► Once you Reach 1:1 RR ratio move u SL to cost and book 50% if you are conservative trader.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey.
HINDUNILVER - Trading plan 27th JulySummary
► DTF is in area with "Bearish Hammer", which infers "sellers being dominant" bias".
► Pivot analysis infers TRENDING DAY bias and ADR is below 0.50 which suggests high probability of TREND DAY.
► CPR has "narrow range LV" relationship, which suggests breakout tomorrow.
► Support levels 2332/2319
► Resistance levels 2371/2356.
**********************************************************************************
Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 2350.75 is stop of 2345.50 and target of 2359. (Scalp)
2. Any bullish PA above 2356.65 is stop of 2350.75 and target of 2370.
3. Any bearish PA below 2351 is stop of 2361 and target of 2340. (Scalp)
4. Aggressive short below 2345 is short with stop of 2353 and target of 2331.
Two rules that I follow religiously while trading
► Don’t trade until 9:30, unless it’s a trending day.
► Once you Reach 1:1 RR ratio move u SL to cost and book 50% if you are conservative trader.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey.
Nifty Trading plan - 26th July
Summary
► HTF is in uncharted area with "Pin bar", which infers "highly negative" bias".
► I believe sellers are still dominant. Nifty heavyweights Reliance and ICICI earnings are mixed, hence be cautious.
► I am repeating what I said on 14th July. " Market in DTF market is moving sideways which infers STAGE 3 as per Stan Weinstein methodology, which means all big folks are selling their shares to retail folks hence, expect correction".
► Another thing I noticed is large caps are on downward trend while small caps are in uptrend, which is not a good sign.
► Pivot analysis infers TRENDING DAY bias. But, ADR is pretty high hence, big whipsaws are possible, but one sided moves are of low probability.
► During these kind of market ensure to trade at "KEY LEVELS" only.
► Support levels 15735/15700
► Resistance levels 15895/15941.
**********************************************************************************
Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15851 is stop of 15833 and target of 15898.
2. Any bullish PA above 15882 is stop of 15864 and target of 15903. (Scalp)
3. Any bullish PA above 15924 is stop of 15903 and target of 15965.
4. Any bearish PA below 15829 is stop of 15851 and target of 15806. (Scalp)
5. Aggressive short below 15772 is short with stop of 15794 and target of 15733.
Please let me know if everyday trading plan is working or not for you, by leaving a comment on comments section or personal message and also, please share your honest feedback.
I am also sharing my google sheet with all the traded plans till date and its returns in a google sheet link below. Hope this inspires confidence in you to manage your trade well.
Link - docs.google.com
Lastly, am held up usually in personal commitments hence, I may be off a few days. But, if you really like my work and use it everyday let me know, I will publish it by squeezing sometime of my busy schedule.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey
V Guard - BULLISH1. V- Guard has consolidated for month and half in 250 - 270 zone and it's now in strong support zone.
2. It's also above 200, 150 and 50 EMA which shows good trend.
3. ADR is contracting significantly, which shows an impulse is pending soon.
4. 16th July has inside CPR with contracted CPR, which infers a high probability of trending day.
5. Also, since many states have unlocked, expect demand to surge soon.
6. Earnings is in July which should show good signs.
7. Can buy at CMP or 251 or 284 for conservative traders with SL of 8% from entry price. Target will be 300 in short term and medium term target is 330-340.
8. Lastly Monthly pivot has HV relationship with narrow CPR. So, chances of trending is high.
9. Fundamentally stock is overpriced.
10. D/E ratio is 0.7 which is very good.
11. Very good cash flow company.
12. FII and MF has high investments into company ( BLACKROCK has increased from 0.4% to 5% holdings) and promoters have increased shareholdings.
13. Finally, invest wisely with strict SL and position size.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey
Nifty trading Plan - 16th JulySummary
► HTF is in uncharted area with a Bullish candle, which infers "Positive" bias". If sellers can push market below 15760 then we may see sellers upper hand, else Bulls will take control.
► Pivot analysis infers TRENDING DAY bias.
► Support levels 15895/15858
► Resistance levels 15941.
► If market can hold off tomorrow and close above 15850, we may see bullish momentum for few week/medium term.
► I don’t know how many of you noticed, but OPEN INTEREST went way too high today for the month July. So, can we expect a momentum play in this month? Do, let me know in comments.
► PS: I am not into OI readings, but since it’s a significant change bought this to attention, would love to know from some experts here.
**********************************************************************************
Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive .
l PPT.
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15900 is stop of 15881 and target of 15936.
2. Any bullish PA above 15925 is stop of 15905 and target of 15952 . (Scalp)
3. Aggressive long above 15968 is stop of 15951 and target of 16000.
4. Any bearish PA below 15883 is stop of 15901 and target of 15861. (Scalp)
5. Aggressive short below 15852 is short with stop of 15869 and target of 15815.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey
Nifty Trading Plan - 15th July Summary
► HTF is again is crucial demand zone. DTF has a "Bullish Doji" candle, which infers "Positive" bias" but, we may see loss of momentum hence, sellers/buyers will fight it out.
► Pivot analysis infers Trading Range DAY bias.
► Support levels 15793/15735
► Resistance levels 15895/15850
► We are in sellers zone, expect it to be closely fought area. Unless, market opens gap up and takes support and PDH.
► Keep your positions size under control. Since, we may see whipsaws and if you lose on trading range days, u end up lose big profits made on TRENDING days.
**********************************************************************************
Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive .
l PPT.
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15835 is stop of 15815 and target of 15872.
2. Any bullish PA above 15792 is stop of 15773 and target of 15830.
3. Aggressive long above 15903 is stop of 15882 and target of 15944.
4. Any bearish PA below 15816 is stop of 15835 and target of 15788.
5. Aggressive short below 15774 is short with stop of 15792 and target of 15750.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Bonne chance!!
@Sacredmonkey
Nifty Trading Plan - 14th JulySummary
► HTF is again is crucial demand zone. DTF has a "Hammer" candle, which infers "Positive" bias".
► Pivot analysis infers Trading Range DAY bias.
► ADR levels are below 0.50 hence, it infers trending day but, CPR width is not encouraging. So, be ready for double distribution day or mild trending day.
► Support levels 15793/15735
► Resistance levels 15895/15850
► Support levels has Multiple pivot point zones, which infers good support. Above 15760 we may see some buying. So, keep a watch, unless market gaps up or down.
► I want to highlight one thing, in DTF market is moving sideways which infers STAGE 3 as per Stan Weinstein methodology. Hence, expect some correction in medium term.
**********************************************************************************
Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive .
l PPT.
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15800 is stop of 15781 and target of 15830.
2. Any bullish PA above 15768 is quick scalp with stop of 15749 target of 15790.
3. Any bullish PA above 15749 is stop of 15729 and target of 15789.
4. Any bearish PA below 15840 is short with stop of 15860 and target of 15800.
5. Any bearish PA below 15790 is short with stop of 15809 and target of 15764.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Have a nice day!!
@Sacredmonkey
Nifty HTF S/R levels - Update 2 Use this in conjunction with everyday trading plan , that I publish.
Nifty Trading Plan - 08th JulySummary
l HTF is again is supply zone. DTF has a "WRC" candle, which infers "Positive" BIAS".
l Pivot analysis infers TRADING RANGE DAY bias and due to overlapping wide range CPR.
l 15916 to 15885 is a resistance level and any weakness at this zone should be a selling opportunity.
l Support levels 15793/15735
l Resistance levels 15916/15879.
l Market is moving in a very tight range and volatility is getting contracted every day, which infers there is huge move coming.
l As long as price is above MPP, scalp for short positions. I am majority bullish from 2 weeks. Any selling is a short term move and should be used as an opportunity to scalp only. Start accumulating to go LONG from support zones.
**********************************************************************************
Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive rejection.
l PPT.
l Evening star.
l RCR
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15850 is quick scalp with stop of 15831 and target of 15882 .
2. Any bullish PA above 15895 is long with stop of 15875 target of 15926.
3. Any bearish PA below 15920 is short with stop of 15941 and target of 15889.
4. Any bearish PA below 15837 is short with stop of 15856 and target of 15808.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Have a nice day!!
@Sacredmonkey
July HTF - Update 1 Please use this HTF analysis in conjunction with everyday trading plan I publish.
Nifty HTF Trading chart - 29th JuneUse this in conjunction with trading plan I publish everyday.
We are in a 15735 zone from where market gapped up, hence we can expect reversal else a further fall. So, don't rush into trades.
Nifty Trading Plan - 29th June HTF ChartPublishing this Nifty HTF chart to help in everyday trading plan. This should be the basis for entry and exit.
I will publish same chart again if i update my chart.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Have a nice day!!
@Sacredmonkey
Nifty Trading Plan - 28the JuneSummary
l HTF is again in a make or break zone. DTF has a "Hammer" candle hence, probability of breakouts is high.
l 15901 is a critical level and if breakout fails again, we may see bearishness to test support again.
l 15439 is critical level and unless its breached in convincing manner my view will be bullish in medium term.
l Pivot analysis infers MILD-TRENDING bias and expect big move if market sustains above 15901.
l Support levels 15833/15795
l Resistance levels 15901.
l Stay out and watch unless you are breakout trader.
**********************************************************************************
Step 1 - Strategies to be deployed -
l Open drive
l PPT.
l Evening star.
l RCR
l CPRRVL
Step 2 - Trading Plan
1. Any bullish PA above 15830 is long with stop of 15805 and target of 15885.
2. Any bullish PA above 15877 is a quick scalp with stop of 15857and target of 15900.
3. Aggressive long above 15915 with stop at 15891 and target of 15969.
4. Any bearish PA below 15817 is short with stop of 15847 and target of 15765.
5. Aggressive short below 15767 is short with stop of 15795 and target of 15726.
This information is for education purpose only. So, please consult your financial advisor for any investment/trading advise.
Have a nice day!!
@Mockingbanana
