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AUDUSD keeps door open for bears targeting 0.6800Despite the recent rebound, AUDUSD holds onto the downside break of fortnight-old support amid an absence of oversold RSI, which in turn hints at the pair’s likely to rush towards refreshing yearly low. However, the latest bottoms surrounding 0.6850 and 0.6830 may act as intermediate halts during the fall. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 03-16, at 0.6800, will be in the spotlight. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6800, the late 2018 lows near 0.6745 could become a buffer before directing the bears towards the 2019 trough close to 0.6670. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may poke the support-turned-resistance line from mid-June, at 0.6900 by the press time, a break of which could escalate the recovery towards the weekly resistance line close to 0.6955. It should be noted, however, that the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA, respectively near 0.6990 and 0.7035, could challenge the AUDUSD bulls afterward. Should the prices rally beyond 0.7035, the June 16 peak of 0.7069 might act as the last defense for bears. To sum up, AUDUSD has already flashed a bearish signal to refresh yearly lows, mainly due to its risk-barometer status.
by MTradingGlobal
Nifty Weekly Outlook for the Expiry Week ( Jun27th - July01 )Falcon Analytics Outlook Nifty 50 for the Expiry week ( Jun 27 – July 01 ) Last Weekly Nifty witness resistance @ 15722 , while the pivot @ 15454 was held almost throughout the week. Technically for this week on the daily charts minor support on the downside for Nifty50 index lies at 15546 levels, whereas minor resistance on the upside is capped around 16104 levels. If Nifty50 index breaches minor support on the downside and closes below it, we may see fresh break down and index can drag towards major supports on lower side around 15333/15201 and and if breaches minor resistance on the upside and closes above it, we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 16314/16447 . Currently Nifty50 index is trading Below Red Line 200 day EMA @ 16609 suggests long term trend is Bearish . Range for the week is seen from 15387 on downside and 16104 on upside. Weekly Chart Suggest closing below 15454 Downward Momentum can be fast. Below Mentioned Spot Levels can be used to trade Long Or Short during the week ahead. ( All Spot Levels) RESISTANCE 4: 16317 RESISTANCE 3: 16104 RESISTANCE 2: 15891 RESISTANCE 1: 15759 WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS: 15546 SUPPORT 1: 15333 SUPPORT 2: 15201 SUPPORT 3: 14988 SUPPORT 4: 14775 All above views for education purpose only. Regards, MD .
NSE:NIFTYShort
by miraldesai
EURUSD stays on the way to sub-1.0300 regionEURUSD again bounces off the monthly low as sellers flirt with a horizontal area surrounding multiple levels marked since April. That being said, RSI and MACD back the major currency pair’s mid-week retreat, which in turn hints at the break of the immediate support zone near 1.0490-80. The following downturn could aim for the yearly low close to 1.0350 before allowing a chance for the bears to breathe. In a case where the quote fails to rebound from 1.0350, the odds of witnessing an extended south-run towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May move, around 1.0265, will be in focus. On the contrary, a 21-DMA and 50-DMA confluence of 1.0610 appears to be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Even if the EURUSD rises past 1.0610, a downward sloping resistance line from March, close to 1.0620, could act as an extra filter to the north before giving control to the bulls. Following that, a run-up towards the monthly high of 1.0773 can’t be ruled out. However, May’s peak near 1.0785 could challenge the pair’s upside moves afterward. Overall, EURUSD has more downside scope than the otherwise but the US dollar’s dormancy probes bears.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold retreats towards $1,805 as bears await Fed’s PowellGold fades bounce off monthly horizontal support ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s key testimony. That said, gradually declining RSI (14) and bearish MACD signals add strength to the downside bias. Should the gold sellers manage to conquer the aforementioned support around $1,805, a downward trajectory towards the yearly low of $1,786 appears imminent. However, the metal’s weakness past $1,786 could make it vulnerable to testing the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-June moves, around $1,748. Meanwhile, recovery moves need a successful break of the 100-day EMA level of $1,868 to convince gold bulls. Following that, the $1,900 threshold acts as a validation point before directing the run-up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May fall, near $1,917. It’s worth noting that gold’s upside past $1,917 enables the buyers to aim for April’s peak surrounding the $2,000 psychological magnet. To sum up, gold is set for further downside but Fed Chair Powell need not spoil the mood by taming the hawkish hopes of the US central bank.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the way to mid-1.3000sEURUSD holds onto its bearish bias, despite bouncing off an immediate support line. That said, a sustained trading below the 200-SMA and previous support line from late May keeps bears hopeful of breaking the nearby trend line support, around 1.0450. Following that, multiple levels surrounding 1.0400 could test the downside momentum before directing the quote towards the previous monthly low near 1.0350, also the lowest level since 2017. In a case where the pair refreshes its yearly bottom, the year 2017’s trough close to 1.0340 could act as the last defense of the bulls. On the upside, further recovery may eye 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 13-30 upside, near 1.0570. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the descending trend line from May 25 around 1.0600 appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD buyers. Even if the quote successfully crosses the 1.0600 hurdle, the June-start low around 1.0630 will be a crucial challenge for the bulls before retaking the control. Overall, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar even after teasing a double-bottom bullish chart pattern.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold teases bears inside rising wedge ahead of US CPIGold prices remain sustainably below 200-SMA since late April, pressured inside a three-week-old rising wedge of late. Given the steady RSI and sluggish MACD, the bearish bias is likely to prevail. However, a clear downside break of the stated wedge’s support, around $1,844, becomes necessary to confirm the downward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in May, near $1,786. It’s worth noting that $1,830 and $1,810 are likely intermediate halts before directing bears towards $1,786. On the contrary, an upside break of the 200-SMA, close to $1.,856, isn’t an open invitation to the gold buyers as a six-week-old descending resistance line and the upper line of the stated wedge, respectively around $1,865 and $1,875, could test the advances. In a case where the precious metal rallies beyond $1,875, May’s high of $1,910 and late April top surrounding $1,920 could lure the bulls. Overall, gold buyers appear to have run out of steam but the bears need validation from both $1,844 and US inflation data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears attack 1.2480 support confluenceGBPUSD not only snapped a two-week uptrend by the end of Friday but also jostles with short-term key support around 1.2480, comprising 100-SMA and a fortnight-long support line. Descending RSI and sluggish MACD also suggest that the bulls ran out of steam, suggesting further downside ahead. Hence, bears appear hopeful of revisiting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downside, around 1.2385, with the immediate battle to be won against 1.2480. Following that, 1.2330 and 1.2260 may entertain sellers before directing them to May’s low of 1.2155. Any corrective pullback, however, needs validation from a downward sloping trend line from mid-April, surrounding 1.2600 by the press time. Also acting as an upward filter is May’s peak of 1.2666, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2770. In a case where GBPUSD buyers remain dominant past 1.2770, an upward trajectory towards April 19 swing low close to 1.2980 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD signals further downside but sustained trading below 1.2480 becomes necessary.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays bullish above 1.0640 support, US PCE Inflation eyedEURUSD remains firmer inside a fortnight old bullish channel ahead of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also staying beyond the key SMAs. Currently, the channel’s upper line surrounding 1.0800 lures the pair buyers, a break of which will direct them towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April 21 to May 13 fall, near 1.0820. It’s worth noting that the RSI is speedily approaching the overbought territory and hence the run-up beyond 1.0820 appears difficult. However, a successful rise past 1.0820 won’t hesitate to challenge the latest peak close to 1.0935 with eyes on the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive unless breaking the 1.0640 support confluence, including 200-SMA and support line of the stated channel, also comprising the early May swing high. In a case where EURUSD drops below 1.0640, the 100-SMA level near 1.0550 will test the pair sellers, a break of which will allow them to revisit the monthly low of 1.0348. To sum up, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar ahead of the key inflation data but the upside room is limited and hence buyers need strong numbers to dominate further.
by MTradingGlobal
BankNifty Spot Weekly Outlook For Expiry Week Falcon Analytics Outlook Bank Nifty for the week (May 23 – May27) Technically on the daily charts we see major support on the downside for BankNifty index lies at 32955 levels, whereas major resistance on the upside is capped around 35000 levels. If BankNifty index breaches minor support on the downside and closes below it, we may see fresh break down and index can drag towards major support on lower side around 32323/31691 and and if breaches major resistance on the upside and closes above it, we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 35631/36263. Currently BankNifty index is just trading above 200 day EMA @ 35947 suggests long term trend is Bearish . Falcon Analytics predicts range for the week is seen from 32323 on downside and 35631 on upside. Below Mentioned Spot Levels can be used to trade Long Or Short during the week ahead. ( All Spot Levels) RESISTANCE 4: 36263 RESISTANCE 3: 35631 RESISTANCE 2: 34999 RESISTANCE 1: 34609 WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS: 33977 SUPPORT 1: 33345 SUPPORT 2: 32955 SUPPORT 3: 32323 SUPPORT 4: 31691 All above views for education purpose only. Regards, MD .
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by miraldesai
2
Nifty 50 Outlook for the Expiry week May 23 – May27Falcon Analytics Outlook Nifty 50 for the Expiry week ( May 23 – May27 ) As Discussed in Last Weekly Analysis Nifty sold off from major resistance @ 16387 while the major support for the week @ 15560 was not breached. Technically for this week on the daily charts we see major support on the downside for Nifty50 index lies at 15726 levels, whereas major resistance on the upside is capped around 16386 levels. If Nifty50 index breaches major support on the downside and closes below it, we may see fresh break down and index can drag towards major support on lower side around 15474/15222 and and if breaches major resistance on the upside and closes above it, we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 16542/16794. Currently Nifty50 index is trading Below 200 day EMA @ 16783 suggests long term trend is Bearish . Range for the week is seen from 15222 on downside and 16794 on upside. Below Mentioned Spot Levels can be used to trade Long Or Short during the week ahead. ( All Spot Levels) RESISTANCE 4: 17046 RESISTANCE 3: 16794 RESISTANCE 2: 16542 RESISTANCE 1: 16386 WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS: 16134 SUPPORT 1: 15882 SUPPORT 2: 15726 SUPPORT 3: 15474 SUPPORT 4: 15222 All above views for education purpose only. Regards, MD .
NSE:NIFTYShort
by miraldesai
Gold stays below 200-DMA, signals more downsideGold prices hold lower grounds below the 200-DMA so far during the week, backed by downbeat MACD and RSI (14). The recovery moves, if any, also need to cross a downward sloping trend line from April around $1,845, in addition to remaining beyond the 200-DMA level surrounding $1,837, to be appealing to the bulls. Following that, an upward trajectory towards the November 2021 peak surrounding $1,877 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of September 2021 to March 2022 upside, close to $1,895, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,795 offers immediate support to the quote before the yearly horizontal support zone near $1,782. It’s worth noting that the nearly oversold RSI conditions may restrict the metal’s downside past $1,782, if not then the December 2021 low near $1,751 and September 2021 bottom of $1,721 could lure the bears. Overall, gold remains on the bear’s table with a limited downside gap on hand.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD remains vulnerable to more downside ahead of Canada CPINot only a downside break of the monthly bullish channel but sustained trading beneath the 100-SMA also keeps USDCAD sellers hopeful ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the downward sloping RSI (14) since the last week. That said, the 1.2800 appears immediate support for the quote ahead of directing it towards the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2720. Any further downside, however, hinges on the pair’s ability to conquer the 1.2660-65 horizontal area comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of April-May upside, as well as mid-April tops. Meanwhile, the 100-SMA level near 1.2875 limits the USDCAD pair’s immediate recovery moves before highlighting the lower line of the aforementioned channel, previous support around 1.2930. In a case where the pair rises past 1.2930, the weekly high of 1.2981 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet could test the buyers prior to highlighting the north-run towards the monthly peak close to 1.3075. Overall, USDCAD has already flashed bearish confirmation on the chart but today’s data also needs to back the move.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need validation from $1,835 to take controlGold’s failure to rebound from $1,850 joins bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful as markets await the key US inflation numbers. However, a convergence of an ascending support line from August 2021 and 200-DMA appears a tough nut to crack for bearish as RSI nears the oversold territory. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside past $1,835 will make the metal vulnerable to drop towards the yearly low surrounding $1,780. During the fall, the $1,800 threshold may act as an intermediate halt. On the contrary, recovery moves may again aim to cross an 11-week-long horizontal hurdle of around $1,890. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August 2021 to March 2022 upside, near $1,916, will be on the gold bull’s radar. In a case where gold prices remain solid past $1,916, an upward trajectory towards $1,980 can’t be ruled out. Overall, gold approaches crucial support ahead of the all-important US CPI and a strong reading will suggest escalating price pressure, which in turn could solidify the USD while likely negatively affecting the quote.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
1
EURUSD’s bear flag hints at further fall in pricesAlthough the weekly channel restricts EURUSD moves while other major currency pairs portray heavy selling against the USD, the bearish flag formation joins downbeat MACD and RSI signals to keep sellers hopeful. Additionally favoring the pair bears is the sustained trading below a descending trend line from March, as well as the 200-SMA and a six-week-old horizontal resistance. However, the south-run needs a trigger and 1.0500 is the same to activate a theoretical slump targeting the 1.0000 psychological magnet. Though, lows marked during 2017 and mid-1999, respectively around 1.0340 and 1.0100, may act as intermediate halts during the anticipated fall. Alternatively, the upper line of mentioned flag, around 1.0650, acts as an immediate upside barrier during the corrective pullback. Following that, the previously stated descending resistance line and the 200-SMA, near 1.0730 and 1.0810 in that order, will act as additional barriers for the EURUSD bulls. It’s worth noting that the pair bears remain hopeful until the quote rallies beyond the multi-day-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 1.0950. To sum up, the EURUSD pair’s hesitance in declining isn’t an early sign of recovery in prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls need 1.2830 breakout for conviction, BOE in focusGBPUSD stays near the two-year low, despite the post-Fed rebound, as cable traders brace for the Bank of England’s (BOE) 0.25% rate hike. Given the latest hawkish moves from the RBA and the Fed, the “Old Lady’s” heavier-than-expected measures to tame inflation won’t be a surprise. In that case, the pair will witness the much-awaited rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of March 2020 to May 2021 upside towards September 2020 bottom surrounding 1.2675. However, a convergence of the previous support line from March 2021 and 50% Fibo, around 1.2830, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers, a break of which could escalate the recovery moves towards the 200-week SMA surrounding 1.3100. Alternatively, a disappointment from the BOE will need a clear break of the aforementioned key Fibo support level, near 1.2500, to direct bears towards the June 2020 bottom of 1.2250. In a case where GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.2250, the May 2020 swing low around 1.2075 will act as the last defense for the buyers as a break of which won’t hesitate to call the 2020’s yearly trough of 1.1409. To sum up, GBPUSD remains in the hands of bears ahead of the BOE’s monetary policy decision.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays on the way to sub-0.7000 region despite recent bounAUDUSD rebounds from a two-month low, also snapping a four-day downtrend, by cheering a strong quarterly inflation data at home. The recovery moves could also be linked to the oversold RSI and a U-turn from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April upside. However, the Aussie remains below the key moving averages and the Fibo levels and the MACD signals are firmly bearish, which in turn suggests that the bears aren’t out of the woods. Hence, fresh selling pressure can’t be ruled out with the first support around 0.7110, comprising 78.6% Fibo. Following that, 0.7050 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet can lure the sellers ahead of directing them to the yearly low surrounding 0.6965. Meanwhile, further recovery hinges on the pair’s ability to close beyond the previous month’s low surrounding 0.7165. Should the AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7165 hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-DMA, respectively around 0.7230 and 0.7290, will be on their radar. Even so, the 50-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line from January, close to 0.7355 and 0.7385 in that order, will test the pair buyers before giving them control. Other than the technicals, the market’s risk-off mood and firmer USD also challenge the AUDUSD buyers.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need validation from $1,980Gold refreshed its monthly high as strong US inflation underpins the safe-haven demand for the metal. In doing so, the bullion also justifies late March’s rebound from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-March upside, as well as the ability to stay beyond the 21-DMA. However, the precious metal is yet to cross a seven-week-old horizontal resistance zone, around $1,975-80, which in turn requires the bull’s caution. Also acting as an extra upside filter is the 23.6% Fibo level surrounding $2,001, a break of which will highlight the latest peak of $2,070. Meanwhile, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,960 and the 21-DMA of $1,937 could test the short-term sellers of gold. However, the bulls remain hopeful until the quote stays beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,891. Should the commodity drop below the key Fibo level, late January’s swing high around $1,853 and the $1,800 threshold can offer additional support to the prices before directing them to the yearly low of $1,780. Overall, gold buyers are in the form but they must overcome the crucial barrier before eyeing further ruling.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
1
EURUSD bears eye 1.0800 ahead of US inflationEURUSD fades Friday’s rebound ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Steady RSI and bearish MACD signals also support the bearish bias. That said, the 1.0845-35 region offers immediate support to the currency major ahead of directing it to the latest multi-month low surrounding the 1.0800 threshold. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.0800, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of February-March moves, near 1.0755, will be in focus. On the flip side, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo.) and 21-DMA, respectively around 1.0970 and 1.0990, restrict the short-term recovery of the EURUSD pair. However, bulls remain cautious until the quote stays below the 50-DMA level of 1.1125. Also acting as an upside filter is the previous month’s peak around 1.1185. It’s worth noting that the pair’s successful trading above 1.1185 enables the buyers to retake control. Overall, US inflation data is likely to exert downside pressure on the EURUSD prices.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls need validation from 21-DMA to retake controlsEURUSD’s corrective pullback remains below 21-DMA, as well as a two-week-old ascending trend line, suggesting a further downside towards the lower end of the latest range between 1.1120 and 1.0900. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of February-March downside acts as an intermediate halt around 1.0980. While the bearish MACD and downward sloping RSI favor the bears of late, the prices have little room on the downside before the RSI turns oversold. As a result, the 1.0900 support is likely acting as a trigger for fresh buying, if not then the quote’s south-run towards the monthly low near 1.0800 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 21-DMA level surrounding 1.1035 guards the quote’s short-term rebound ahead of the previous support line from early March, near 1.1045-50 at the latest. In a case where the EURUSD prices rally beyond 1.1050, the upper end of the aforementioned trading range, close to 1.1120, will lure the bulls. It should be noted, however, that the pair’s successful break of 1.1120 will enable the buyers to challenge the 50-DMA level surrounding 1.1200. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further but the south-run has a limited horizon to cover.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD keeps bearish megaphone breakout on ECB dayEURUSD extends the early week rebound from a 22-month low, also holding the previous day’s break of a bearish broadening pattern as traders brace for the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. Given the recently improving MACD and RSI, the pair’s recovery moves are likely heading towards a six-week-old horizontal area between 1.1100 and 1.1125. However, the 100-SMA and multiple levels marked since January 25, respectively around 1.1190 and 1.1270, will challenge the pair buyers. Meanwhile, the resistance-turned-support line of the stated megaphone pattern, around 1.1015 at the last, will direct EURUSD towards a three-day-old ascending support line, close to 1.0920. In a case where the pair sellers conquer the immediate support, the latest multi-month low near 1.0800 and April 2020 bottom surrounding 1.0725 could flash on their radars. It should be noted, however, that the bears will have a tough time breaking the 1.0700 level, comprising the lower line of the megaphone and may bounce from the same should the fundamentals support. To sum, ECB is widely anticipated to keep the current monetary policy unchanged and may accept the fear of stagflation, mainly due to the Russia-Ukraine tussles. However, any positive surprises may trigger the short-covering moves as the quote trades near the multi-month low.
by MTradingGlobal