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GBPUSD fades bounce off 21-SMA, UK inflation, US inflation eyedGBPUSD snaps a two-day winning streak with mild losses around 1.2270 as traders await the UK employment and the US inflation data on early Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable pair fades bounce off the 21-day SMA. However, the absence of an overbought RSI (14) line, bullish MACD signals and the quote’s defense of the early-month resistance breakout keeps the buyers hopeful. With this, the tops marked in October around 1.2290 and the monthly high of near 1.2340 could lure the Pound Sterling bulls during a fresh run-up. However, the 200-day SMA level surrounding 1.2440 appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct the prices toward the August month’s swing low of around 1.2550. It’s worth noting, however, that the fundamentals are against the bullish technical signals considering the UK’s economic weakness vis-à-vis the US. Even so, the 21-day SMA and the previous resistance line, respectively near 1.2200 and 2120, restrict the short-term downside of the GBPUSD pair. In a case where the Pound Sterling bears dominate past 1.2120, a five-week-old horizontal support near 1.2070, the previous monthly low of near 1.2035 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet could test the sellers before giving them full control. Overall, the GBPUSD pair is likely to edge higher unless the scheduled data posts too disappointing numbers.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls eye another battle with 4.5-month-old resistanceUSDJPY rises for the sixth consecutive day while poking the yearly high marked in October, mildly bid near 151.70 during early Monday. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies an upbeat RSI (14) line while signaling the fourth attack to cross an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from June 30, around 152.50 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the previous yearly peak of near 152.00 guards the quote’s immediate upside. That said, the pair’s successful trading beyond 152.50 enables buyers to aim for the June 1990 high of 155.80. Meanwhile, the 150.00 round figure and the 50-day SMA surrounding 149.20 restrict the USDJPY pair’s short-term downside. Following that, the 100-day SMA and an upward-sloping trend line from late March, respectively near 146.20 and 145.30, will act as the final defense of the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the bears dominate past 145.30, June’s high of near 145.00 can test the downside moves targeting May’s high near 141.00 and then toward the 140.00 psychological magnet. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains in the bullish trend but the upside room appears limited as the multi-month-old rising trend line joins nearly overbought RSI conditions to suggest one more retreat of the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD challenges bullish channel formation on Fed daySofter prints of the Eurozone inflation joined the overall risk-off mood and slightly upbeat US data to drag the EURUSD pair down on Tuesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias are the hopes of witnessing one more rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) during 2023, as well as the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI. However, a one-month-old ascending trend channel, currently between 1.0710 and 1.0540, provides headwinds to the Euro sellers. In a case where the major currency pair breaks the 1.0540 support and defies the bullish chart pattern, the yearly low marked in October 1.0450 and the August 2022 peak of around 1.0370 will lure the bears afterward. On the flip side, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding 1.0615 guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the stated channel’s top line, close to 1.0710. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s August-October downside, near 1.0750, will act as an additional upside filter for the bulls before taking control. Following that, a quick run-up towards the late August month’s high of around 1.0950 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD challenges the four-week-old recovery as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting results on Wednesday.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays pressured on UK inflation dayGBPUSD prints mild losses below 1.2200 during early Wednesday as market players await the UK inflation data while consolidating the week-start gains of the Cable pair. That said, a likely easing inflation pressure in Britain joins the downbeat RSI (14) and the impending bear cross on the MACD keeps the pair sellers hopeful. With this, the quote’s fall toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of March-July upside, near 1.2090, becomes imminent. However, a seven-month-old upward-sloping support line surrounding 1.2070 appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the bears manage to conquer the 1.2070 support, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and March’s bottom of around 1.1800 will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, GBPUSD recovery needs validation from the strong UK inflation data and the US Dollar’s weakness to convince intraday buyers. Additionally, a three-month-long descending trend line, close to 1.2280 at the latest, holds the key to the bull’s conviction. Following that, the Cable pair’s run-up toward the 200-day SMA level of around 1.2445 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth observing that the Pound Sterling’s successful trading above 1.2445 will aim for August month’s low of around 1.2550 while May’s high of 1.2680 could lure the optimists after. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to witness further downside but the road toward the south is long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold eyes the first weekly gain in three, focus on $1,885Gold Price reverses the post-US inflation retreat from a two-week high as market players await more consumer-centric details on early Friday. In doing so, the XAUUSD bounces off 100-SMA and justifies the firmer RSI (14) line. However, bearish MACD signals will join a two-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,880-85 to provide a tough fight to the metal buyers. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October downside, near the $1,900 round figure, will be the final defense of the bears before giving control to the bulls. Meanwhile, stronger US data may drag the Gold price beneath the 100-SMA support of around $1,869, which in turn highlights the $1,860 and $1,855 as the following barriers for the XAUUSD bears. In a case where the bullion prices remain weak past $1,855, the $1,830 and the latest bottom of around $1,810 could test the commodity sellers ahead of the $1,800 psychological magnet. It’s worth mentioning that the metal’s sustained decline below the $1,800 threshold will make it vulnerable to test the late December 2022 swing low of around $1,770. Overall, the Gold price slips off the bear’s radar and braces for the first weekly gain in three but the buyers need to remain cautious unless the metal stays beneath the $1,900 resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
12th Oct ’23 - BN hides the NiftyIT fall today - PostMortem BankNifty Analysis Banknifty also had a perfect flat day today. Since we did not have an attempt to fall, I assume the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. Its inability to take out the 44738 resistance was also quite worrying. But there was something strange and heroic by BN today. NiftyIT was falling pretty sharply today on the back of results from TCS. INFY also started falling even though the results came after market hours. NiftyIT fell 1.67% today but had a total swing range of 2% today. The major reason why it was not reflecting on Nifty50 was due to BankNifty’s counter-performance along with RELIANCE & ITC. Will try to write an article this weekend on why NiftyIT should have Futures & Options enabled and an independent expiry day. The only volatile index out there is IT and since we have a VIX collapse the option sellers are making only peanuts these days (me included). NiftyIT if enabled for FnO will have attractive premiums as it is quite expected to move 1.5 to 2% intraday. On the 1hr chart, BN shows a sideways pattern. I wish to continue my neutral stance till the resistance of 44738 is taken out. And wish to change to bearish if we break the 44380 levels. After the market closed we got the CPI inflation data and it came at 5.02% - source. This should give a positive boost for tomorrow. Also, the US CPI came at 3.7% - source - but as it stands SPX is trading flat.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD recovery fades below key resistance surrounding 1.0630EURUSD bulls struggle at a weekly high while waiting for inflation clues from Germany and the US, as well as the Fed Minutes, on Wednesday. That said, an upside break of the 21-day SMA and bullish oscillators keep Euro buyers hopeful. However, a three-month-old falling resistance line and a horizontal region comprising multiple levels marked since late May, around 1.0620-35, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Should the upcoming data fail to inspire the US Dollar bulls and allow the quote to cross the 1.0635 hurdle on a daily closing basis, a run-up toward the mid-September swing high of near 1.0770 can’t be ruled out. Following that, the 200-day SMA surrounding 1.0825 will be the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, the EURUSD pullback needs validation from the 21-day SMA level of 1.0600 and the scheduled data/events. Should the Euro sellers return, a fortnight-long horizontal support zone of around 1.0500 can test the bears before directing them to the yearly low of near 1.0450. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.0450, the August 2022 peak of near 1.0370 and the late November 2022 low of near 1.0220 can lure the sellers. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to consolidate the previous monthly losses but the road towards the north is long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
6th Oct ’23 - RBI meeting status quo - PostMortem BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis I had a bearish view for today, but it played out as a bad day for the bears. The RBI MPC meeting at 10 am did not move the needle that much. Usually, the RBI Governor’s speech drives up the volatility and we have some adverse moves. There was one strong move of 250pt from 10.50 to 11.20 where we pulled back from 44500 levels. Even then the options data did not get excited - and we knew that the fall was not going to last. Rightly so, Banknifty recovered quite decently and ended the day with good gains. Let us look at some points discussed by RBI Governer today - source Keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% Continuing the withdrawal of accommodative stance GDP growth is projected at 6.5% Inflation is projected at 5.4% The US Fed rate is 5.5% and ours is still at 6.5%, keeping the rates lower is not good for a country that needs to attract foreign investments. Although he started talking about the USDINR - that conversation did not last long. If the US decides to hold these rates for a longer tenure - a major chunk of emerging market investors could flee back and invest in dollars. An accommodative stance is usually provided to stimulate growth in the economy. RBI is just withdrawing the accommodation. Its fight is not removing liquidity with full intensity, as it may impact growth. If removing liquidity was a top priority - the stance should have been more hawkish. GDP growth at 6.5% is very good - no comments on this. Inflation at 5.4% is still bad. In his speech, he said he is very particular that inflation returns to the 4% band and then he forecasted the next FY inflation around 5.2%. By Shaving off 0.2% a year - how long will it take to reach back at 4%? He also said about removing liquidity by selling Government Bonds - I am not sure how that will work. Will have to burn my midnight oil to dig deeper into it. I am changing my stance from bearish to neutral as we have managed to break the 44068 resistance. Today’s price action imparts some stability to the current levels. The next levels to watch for will be 44702 if we are going up and 44136 if we are falling.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD pares losses within five-week-old bearish channelEURUSD stays defensive within a short-term bearish chart pattern after recovering from the Year-To-Date (YTD) low in the last two consecutive days. The corrective bounce also crossed a two-week-long falling resistance line and gains support from the bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14) conditions, to suggest the Euro pair’s further advances. However, the top line of a downward-sloping trend channel established since August 30, close to 1.0575 by the press time, guards the immediate recovery of the pair. Following that, an 11-week-old descending resistance line and the 200-SMA, respectively near 1.0660 and 1.0700, will act as the final defense of the bears before giving control to the buyers. Meanwhile, the resistance-turned-support line stretched from September 20, surrounding 1.0530, puts a floor beneath the EURUSD price for the short term. In a case where the Euro pair drops below 1.0530, the 1.0500 round figure and the yearly low marked on Tuesday around 1.0450 will test the bears. Also acting as a downside filter is the bottom line of the aforementioned bearish trend channel, close to 1.0420 at the latest. Should the major currency pair remain bearish past 1.0420, and also break the 1.0400 threshold, a gradual south-run toward the late November 2022 swing low of around 1.0220 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further recovery but the bearish trend prevails unless the quote stays beneath 1.0700.
by MTradingGlobal
5th Oct ’23 - Bearish despite gap-up - PostMortem BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a similar chart pattern as that of Nifty. An opening gap-up of 272pts ~ 0.6% and then a 2nd leg of rally from 10.30 of 279pts ~ 0.63%. The only difference I saw was that after the day’s high was hit - BankNifty started falling gradually whereas Nifty went flat. Tomorrow’s RBI MPC outcome at 10.00 might be interesting. We would like to see how RBI governor is planning to suck the liquidity out. The I-CRR implementation and then its withdrawal created a ruckus last time. Markets fell first and then recovered equally. If the liquidity is left unchecked - the costs of goods & services will keep getting inflated. Unlike other developed countries - we do not want to hurt the growth and the growth in inflation is not hurting us that badly. I do not wish to change my bearish stance on BankNifty despite an up day today. The M pattern at 44650 levels are looking quite strong for me and until BankNifty takes them out - I do not even plan to go neutral as well. The biggest enemy of the bears is the implied volatility - the options premiums are not expecting a massive move this week even though we have an RBI event. Option sellers are having a tough time these days - I still think it's much better not to trade than sell strikes cheaply.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
EURUSD bounces off 10-month-old support but remains bearishEURUSD pares weekly losses ahead of the key inflation data from the Eurozone and the US. In doing so, the Euro pair rebounds from horizontal support comprising lows marked since November 2022, around 1.0485-80, as the RSI (14) takes a U-turn from the oversold territory. The same joins the looming bull cross on the MACD to direct the pair towards the nine-month-old previous support line, close to 1.0650 at the latest. However, the mid-September highs of around 1.0765-70 and the convergence of the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA, surrounding 1.0830, will act as tough nuts to crack for the buyers before retaking control. On the contrary, the EURUSD pullback remains elusive beyond the immediate horizontal support line surrounding 1.0480. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of September 2022 to July 2023 upside of near 1.0400 will precede the late November 2022 bottom of around 1.0220 to test the Euro bears. In a case where the major currency pair remains bearish past 1.0220, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of around 1.0200 will act as the final defense of the pair buyers. Overall, EURUSD remains bearish below 1.0830 but the corrective bounce may recall 1.0650 for a while on the chart.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD eyes yearly low despite upbeat Australia inflationAUDUSD breaks a three-week-old rising support line even as Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) matches upbeat market forecasts for August with 5.2% YoY figures. The trend line breakdown joins bearish MACD signals to keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful. However, the RSI (14) line is approaching the oversold territory and hence suggests a limited room towards the south. The same highlights the yearly low marked earlier in September around 0.6360. In a case where the pair bears ignore the oversold RSI and refresh the yearly low, the 0.6300 round figure and November 2022 bottom of around 0.6270 will be on their radars ahead of the year 2022 low of 0.6170. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance line of around 0.6415 guards the immediate recovery of the AUDUSD pair. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and the 50-SMA, around 0.6440 by the press time, will challenge the Aussie bulls. Should the quote remain firmer past the key SMA confluence, the 0.6500 round figure and a six-week-long horizontal resistance around 0.6530 will be crucial to watch for clear directions as a sustained break of them will welcome the buyers with open hands. Overall, AUDUSD remains in the bearish trend despite upbeat Australian inflation data.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD jostles with multi-month-old support around 1.2200GBPUSD stays depressed at the six-month low even as bears struggle with a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early February. Also challenging the downside bias is the oversold RSI (14) line. With this, a corrective bounce toward May’s bottom of around 1.2310 can be witnessed. However, the 200-SMA on the daily chart, around 1.2435 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the Cable pair buyers afterward. Even if the Sterling manages to cross the 1.2435 hurdle, a downward-sloping resistance line from July, close to 1.2540 by the press time, will act as the last defense of the pair bears. On the contrary, the Pound Sterling’s sustained weakness beneath the 1.2200-2190 key support zone could quickly drag it to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of September 2022 to July 2023 upside, near 1.2090. Following that, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and a 10-month-old broad support area surrounding 1.1900-1860, adjacent to the yearly low of around 1.1800, will be in the spotlight. Overall, GBPUSD bears appear running out of steam but the bulls have a long and bumpy road to travel before taking control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls struggle within rising wedge, focus on 147.30USDJPY stays defensive at an 11-month high, losing upside momentum after a three-week winning streak, as market players await this week’s key Japan inflation data, as well as the US Durable Goods Orders. Also, sluggish RSI (14) line and MACD signals add restrictions to moves and challenge the Yen pair buyers. Furthermore, a rising wedge bearish chart formation comprising levels marked since early August also keeps the pair sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the stated wedge’s bottom line, close to 147.30 at the latest, becomes necessary for the sellers to retake control. Even so, the 200-SMA and the monthly low, respectively around 146.40 and 144.45, may test the buyers ahead of highlighting the rising wedge’s theoretical target of 140.30 and 140.00. On the contrary, the latest high of around 148.50 guards the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair ahead of the stated wedge’s top line of around 149.00. In a case where the Yen pair remains firmer past 149.00, the 150.00 round figure and the previous yearly high of around 152.00 could lure the pair buyers. Following that, the June 1990 peak of around 155.80 will act as the last defense of the bears. Overall, USDJPY bears appear tiring but the buyers seem determined to give a tough tight before leaving the throne.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays defensive near key support line on Fed dayEURUSD fades bounce off an ascending support line stretched from early January as market players brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is nearly oversold and the MACD flags bull cross, which in turn favors the Euro pair’s sustained trading beyond the stated support line, close to 1.0640 by the press time. That said, the quote’s weakness past 1.0640, will make it vulnerable to decline towards March’s bottom surrounding 1.0515 before testing the yearly low of around 1.0480. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery moves will initially aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-July upside, near 1.0790. However, a two-month-old descending resistance line and the 200-day SMA, respectively near 1.0815 and 1.0830, could challenge the Euro buyers past 1.0790. In a case where the pair manages to remain firmer past 1.0790, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the late August swing high of around 1.0940 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD remains bearish even if the oscillators challenge the downside bias.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD sellers need validation from 1.3430 and Canada inflationUSDCAD stays pressured at the lowest level in a month after breaking a six-week-old horizontal support. Adding strength to the downside bias is the Loonie pair’s sustained trading below the 200-SMA. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals prod the bears, which in turn highlights a two-month-old ascending support line, close to 1.3430 at the latest. It should be noted, however, that a downside break of the 1.3430 support will make the quote vulnerable to drop towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of July-September upside, near 1.3390, and to the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of 1.3320 ahead of directing the bears toward multiple tops marked in July and August around 1.3230. Meanwhile, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early August, between 1.3490 and 1.3500, guards the immediate recovery of the USDCAD pair. Also acting as the nearby upside hurdles for the Loonie pair is a one-week-old descending trend line and 200-SMA, respectively near 1.3510 and 1.3530. It should be noted that the quote’s run-up beyond 1.3530 will aim for the 1.3600 and the double tops marked in late August around 1.3635-40. In a case where the bulls manage to keep the reins past 1.3640, the monthly high surrounding 1.3700 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the USDCAD pair is likely to decline further but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pares US inflation-induced losses ahead of ECBEURUSD braces for the first weekly gain in nine as markets await the key European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate announcement. In doing so, the Euro pair extends the previous week’s rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of March-July upside, near 1.0680 by the press time. The corrective bounce also gains support from a looming bull cross on the MACD indicator, as well as the gradually rising RSI (14) line from the oversold territory. It’s worth noting, however, that the 1.0800 appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers as it comprises the six-month-old previous support line, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from late July and the 100-EMA, respectively near 1.0855 and 1.0865, will act as the final defenses of the pair sellers. On the contrary, the EURUSD pair’s fresh downside could aim for the latest swing low of around 1.0700 before poking the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 1.0680. In a case where the Euro pair remains bearish past 1.0680, May’s bottom of 1.0635 may act as a buffer during the quote’s slump targeting March’s low of 1.0516. It’s worth observing that the yearly low marked in January around 1.0480 could test the pair sellers past 1.0516 before giving them control. Overall, EURUSD builds upside momentum but the recovery moves need validation from the hawkish ECB signals, especially after the previous day’s US inflation numbers challenged the pair buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears prepare for another stunt as US inflation loomsGold Price again prods the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support, after failing to break the same during late August, within a 2.5-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation. The sluggish MACD signals and a downward-sloping RSI (14), not oversold, also favor the XAUUSD bears in breaking the 200-EMA support of around $1,910, which in turn will allow the precious metal to test the $1,900 threshold. However, the stated wedge’s bottom line of around $1,880 could challenge the commodity sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past $1,880, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its February-Mary upside, close to $1,860, will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing the prices toward the early 2023 low of around $1,805. On the contrary, the Gold Price recovery will aim for the 100-EMA hurdle of surrounding $1,930. Following that, the aforementioned bullish chart pattern’s top line, close to $1,945, and the monthly high of near $1,953 could challenge the XAUUSD buyers. In a case where the bullion remains firmer past the $1,953 hurdle, the odds of witnessing a rally towards July’s peak of $1,987 and then to the theoretical target of the wedge formation, close to $2,045, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that the $2,000 psychological magnet acts as an extra filter toward the north. Overall, the Gold Price appears to decline further but the downside room seems limited unless the US CPI offers an extremely strong figure for August month.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge lures USDJPY sellers amid hawkish BoJ concernsUSDJPY begins the week on a negative note while extending a downside gap during the early hours of Monday. Adding strength to the bearish bias about the Yen pair are the concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy easing and a five-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. It should be noted, however, that multiple supports stand tall to test the pair sellers on their way to the theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation, around 139.20. That said, the stated wedge’s bottom line of around 145.60 acts as an immediate challenge for the bears to retake control. Following that, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from mid-July, close to 144.70 and 143.40 in that order, will precede the 140.00 round figure to also check the pair’s downside momentum ahead of highlighting the 139.20 mark. On the contrary, another rejection from the BoJ policymakers to the hawkish bias and strong US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, could renew the upside bias about the USDJPY pair. In that case, the tops marked since last Tuesday around 147.90 will provide headwinds to the Yen pair’s recovery. It should be noted that the stated wedge’s top line, around 148.10 by the press time, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. In that case, the north run will aim for the 150.00 psychological magnet ahead of targeting the previous yearly high surrounding 151.95, as well as the 152.00 threshold. To sum up, USDJPY bulls appear to run out of steam but the bears need validation from 145.60, BoJ officials and the US inflation to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold has limited downside room unless it breaks $1,900Gold price appears well set to print the first weekly loss in three as it defends the previous Friday’s U-turn from a key resistance line below the important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the 50-EMA pierces the 200-EMA from below and prints a “Golden Cross” bullish moving average crossover suggesting a corrective bounce in prices. Additionally, the RSI (14) also rebounds from the oversold territory and hence increases the odds of witnessing a corrective bounce towards the EMA convergence surrounding $1,930. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August downturn, near $1,937, may please the XAUUSD buyers before testing them with a seven-week-old descending resistance line surrounding $1,950. Adding strength to the stated trend line resistance is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”. Meanwhile, the Gold buyer’s failure to defend Thursday’s corrective bounce needs to break $1,915 support to recall the sellers. Even so, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since late June, close to $1,900, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAUUSD bears afterward. It should be observed, though, that a clear downside break of $1,900 won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly low of around $1,884 while targeting the early March swing high of around $1,858 and then to the yearly bottom of $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 round figure. To sum up, the Gold price remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest recovery.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD recovery remains unconvincing below 1.1040EURUSD extends recovery from the 200-DMA, as well as an upside break of a fortnight-old descending resistance line, as markets await the Eurozone inflation data and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index. That said, the looming bull cross on the MACD and upbeat RSI (14), not overbought, also keep the Euro buyers hopeful. However, a clear run-up beyond the previous support line stretched from October 2022, now resistance around 1.1040, becomes necessary to confirm the bullish trend. Following that, the yearly high of 1.1275, marked earlier in the month, will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, the two-week-long resistance-turned-support of around 1.0880 restricts the immediate downside of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 200-DMA level of 1.0810. In a case where the Euro pair drops below 1.0810, and also breaks the 1.0800 round figure, sellers can aim for May’s bottom of 1.0635 before targeting the yearly low marked in January surrounding 1.0480. It’s worth noting that the downside moves need strongly disappointing Eurozone HICP and CPI numbers, as well as an extremely positive US Core PCE Price Index, to reverse the latest uptrend. Overall, EURUSD remains in the recovery mode as the key Eurozone and the US data loom.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD appears ready for further downside towards 200-SMAGBPUSD remains on the back foot while justifying a downside break of a 5.5-month-old rising support line and the 100-SMA. Also keeping the Cable bears hopeful are the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI conditions suggest limited room towards the south, which in turn highlights the 200-SMA level of around 1.2400 as the key support. It’s worth noting that the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July fall, close to 1.2470, acts as an immediate check of the sellers while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of near 1.2310, also known as the golden ratio, will challenge the sellers past 200-SMA. On the contrary, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from the 100-SMA hurdle of 1.2645. Following that, a convergence of the 21-SMA and the previous support line from mid-March, surrounding 1.2700, appears a tough nut to crack for the Cable buyers. In a case where the Pound Sterling remains firmer past 1.2700, the gradual upside toward June’s peak of 1.2848 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD appears well set for further downside even if the road towards the south appears bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls run out of steam around mid-146.00sUSDJPY again flirts with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn within a five-month-long bullish channel. Though, the overbought RSI (14) and looming bear cross on the MACD signal pullback of the Yen pair. That said, the tops marked in late June and early July join the 21-DMA to highlight the 144.60-50 zone as a short-term key support. In a case where the risk-barometer pair drops below 144.50, the late July swing high around 142.00 might stop the sellers before challenging them with the 140.00 support confluence comprising 100-DMA and the bottom line of the stated channel. Meanwhile, a daily closing beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 146.50 will direct the USDJPY buyers toward the November 2022 peak of around 148.85 and then to the 149.00 round figure. Following that, the 150.00 round figure might test the Yen pair’s upside before highlighting the previous yearly high of around 152.00. To sum up, the USDJPY pair’s pullback appears overdue but the downtrend appears off the table beyond 140.00.
by MTradingGlobal