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EURUSD tests sellers by bouncing off 1.0970 supportEURUSD dropped in the last two consecutive weeks as it fades bounce off a two-month-old rising support line. The recovery previously gained support from the RSI’s rebound from the overbought territory, as well as the looming bull cross on the MACD. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA and a fortnight-long falling resistance line, close to 1.1100-1105 at the latest, restricts the immediate upside. a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since July 21, close to 1.1150, also likely to challenge the Euro buyers should they manage to keep the reins past 1.1105. Following that, a run-up towards the yearly top marked during mid-July around 1.1275 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, fresh selling needs validation from the aforementioned multi-day-old rising support line, close to 1.0970 at the latest. In a case where the EURUSD bears manage to break the 1.0970 support, it can quickly drop to the monthly low of around 1.0835. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July upside, near 1.0780, will check the Euro bears afterward, a break of which will direct the price towards May’s low of near 1.0635. Overall, EURUSD signals a corrective bounce but the bullish trend remains elusive unless the quote remains below 50-SMA and immediate trend line confluence, near 1.1100-05.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY breaks immediate support despite BoJ inactionUSDJPY appears well-set to reverse the previous weekly gains as it reverses from a three-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 141.00. Also adding strength to the downside bias could be the pair’s break of a fortnight-old support line’s break, as well as bearish MACD signals. However, the below 50.0 levels of the RSI challenges the Yen pair as US Dollar bulls flex muscles ahead of the Fed’s favorite inflation clue, namely the Core PCE Price Index. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s recovery remains elusive below 141.00 while the 200-SMA and multiple technical levels marked since June 19 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July downside together constitute the 142.00-10 area as a tough nut to crack for the bulls. On the contrary, USDJPY sellers need validation from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 139.00 to rule further. Should the Yen pair remains bearish past 139.00, tops marked in March and May around 137.70 and the monthly low near 137.25 will act as the final defenses of the major currency pair. If at all the quote drops beneath 137.25, May’s bottom of near 133.50 and the 130.00 threshold will lure the sellers. Overall, USDJPY is likely to add to the weekly gains but US data appears crucial to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD portrays bearish triangle on Australia inflation, Fed decAUDUSD fades bounce off 200-EMA, reversing from a one-week-old falling resistance line, as Australian inflation and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision decorate the calendar. Given the downbeat oscillators, as well as the Aussie pair’s placement within a two-month-old bearish triangle, the quote stays on the seller’s radar. However, a clear downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, close to 0.6690, becomes necessary to convince bears, not to forget the need for a sustained close beneath the 200-EMA level of 0.6730. Following that, the late June low surrounding 0.6595 and the previous monthly bottom of near 0.6485 will gain the market’s attention. In a case where the Aussie pair remains bearish past 0.6485, the theoretical target of the bearish triangle confirmation, near 0.6240, should be logical to expect as the target for the short positions. On the contrary, an upside break of the seven-day-old resistance line, around 0.6790 at the latest, will precede the 0.6800 round figure and the last weekly high of near 0.6850 could test the AUDUSD buyers. However, major attention will be given to the triangle’s top surrounding 0.6900, a break of which won’t hesitate to propel the Aussie pair toward the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Should the quote stays firmer past 0.7000, the mid-February peak of around 0.7030 may check the upside momentum ahead of directing the bulls to the yearly top close to 0.7160. Overall, AUDUSD appears slipping off the bull’s radar but the sellers need validation from the triangle breakdown and the fundamentals.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears have further downside to track, focus on 1.1000 EURUSD stays on the back foot ever since it reversed from a multi-month high the last week, despite the latest corrective bounce. The Euro pair’s south run also conquered the resistance-turned-support stretched from early February and gains support from the RSI’s pullback from overbought territory. Adding strength to the downside bias is the looming bear cross on the MACD. With this, the major currency pair is likely to decline further, suggesting a retest to the previous monthly high of around 1.1010. Following that, the 1.1000 psychological magnet and a two-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0940 by the press time, will test the bears. It should be noted that the 100-DMA acts as the final defense of the short-term pair buyers around 1.0885. On the contrary, the ascending trend line from February, near 1.1140 at the latest, restricts the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair. Following that, 1.1200 and 1.1250 may check the Euro bulls before directing them to the latest peak of around 1.1275. In a case where the buyers remain dominant past 1.1275, the 1.1300 round figure may act as a validation point for the rally targeting the previous yearly of around 1.1500. During the run-up, the 1.1400 threshold can also provide an intermediate halt. Overall, EURUSD is likely to remain bearish as markets await the key central bank meeting decision, including the ECB and the Fed.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls still in the game as markets await Fed, ECB playAlthough the EURUSD is all set for the first weekly loss in four, despite refreshing the 17-month high, the buyers aren’t off the board as multiple supports stand tall to challenge the downside ahead of the key week comprising monetary policy meeting from the Fed and the ECB. That said, a three-month-old horizontal support area surrounding 1.1100-1090. Following that, a broad support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early May can challenge the Euro bears between 1.1030 and 1.1000. Even if the quote breaks the 1.1000 psychological magnet, a seven-week-long rising support line near 1.0920 will act as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, the EURUSD rebound may initially aim for the support-turned-resistance line near 1.1180 and then to 1.1230 ahead of confronting the 1.1275-80 resistance region comprising levels marked during early 2022. In a case where the Euro pair manages to remain firmer past 1.1280, the previous yearly high of near 1.1500 will be in the spotlight. It should be noted that the pair’s run-up beyond 1.1500 needs to gain support from the hawkish ECB, as well as the dovish Fed, to aim for the late 2021 peak around 1.1700. On a different note, the RSI line slides below the 50 level suggesting brighter chances of a bottom-picking even if the MACD flashes bearish signals. To sum up, EURUSD remains on the buyer’s radar despite the latest retreat as the key event remain on the docket to shake the markets next week.
by MTradingGlobal
UK inflation and 1.3170 need to vouch for GBPUSD bullsGBPUSD extends pullback from a 15-month high, marked the last week, as it awaits the UK’s headline inflation data for June, per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) gauge. The pair previously cheered the US Dollar weakness to refresh the multi-month high before the fears of British recession weighed on the prices. The upside momentum also took clues from a clear break of a downward-sloping resistance line from May 2021 and the 200-week SMA. However, the overbought RSI highlights a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since December 2021, near 1.3170, as the immediate key hurdle to cross for the Cable buyers to keep the reins. Following that, the pair’s run-up toward the January 2022 low and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its May 2021 to September 2022 downturn, respectively near 1.3360 and 1.3440, can’t be ruled. On the contrary, downbeat UK inflation data and a failure to cross the 1.3170 resistance can trigger the GBPUSD pair’s pullback toward the 1.3000 psychological magnet before highlighting the 200-week SMA support, close to 1.2885 by the press time. In a case where the Pound Sterling falls below the 200-week SMA, the previous monthly low of around 1.2760 and the broad resistance-turned-support line, near 1.2520, will be in the spotlight for the pair sellers. Overall, GBPUSD bulls are near the testing point as the UK inflation data looms.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold price pullback remains unimpressive beyond $1,900Gold price reverses the previous week’s retreat from an eight-week-old descending resistance line, grinding higher past the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the nearly overbought RSI (14) suggests another pullback from the aforementioned immediate resistance line, near $1,962 at the latest. With this, the XAUUSD is likely to break the immediate support surrounding $1,935, comprising the 100-EMA. However, the 200-EMA, close to $1,900 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the metal bears to break before retaking control. In a case where the price remains bearish below the $1,900 mark, the odds of witnessing a quick slump toward the early March high of around $1,858 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the aforementioned descending resistance line, close to $1,962, could renew the Gold Price upside towards challenging the previous monthly high of around $1,983. Following that, the $2,000 round figure and April’s peak of around $2,048 will be in the spotlight before directing the XAUUSD bulls toward the yearly high of near $2,067. Overall, multiple hurdles toward the north and the latest retreat from the key resistance line teases the Gold sellers but crucial EMAs stand tall to challenge the commodity bears.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebound appears overdueUSDJPY dropped in the last two consecutive weeks but ended Friday on a positive note as it bounced off a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA. Adding strength to the hopes of recovery is the oversold RSI and the pair’s closing beyond a seven-month-old horizontal support zone, around 137.90-138.20. That said, the 140.00 round figure appears immediate hurdle to cross for the Yen pair buyers to retake control, a break of which needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to January 2023 downside, near 142.50, to confirm a bullish trend. In that case, the previous monthly high of 145.00 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 146.70 hold the key for the run-up targeting the 150.00 psychological magnet and then toward the last yearly high of near 152.00. Meanwhile, the aforementioned DMA convergence, surrounding 137.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. Following that, an ascending support line stretched from mid-January 2023, near 135.30, will act as the last defense of the Yen pair buyers. Should the risk-barometer pair remains bearish past 135.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and March’s low, respectively near 133.00 and 129.65, will be in the spotlight. Overall, USDJPY bears seem running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls have multiple challenges in keeping the reinsEURUSD braces for the biggest weekly gain since November 2022 while poking the 16-month high as markets await more clues to confirm the nearness of the Fed’s policy pivot. It’s worth noting, however, that the overbought RSI conditions and an ascending resistance line from November 2022, around 1.1250 by the press time, challenge the buyers of late. Even if the quote remains firmer past 1.1250, the 1.1300 round figure will act as additional checks during the further upside. Following that, the Euro bulls will put their eyes on the previous yearly high of around 1.1500. On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive unless the EURUSD remains firmer past the previous resistance line from February, near 1.1180 at the latest, as well as the April 2023 high of around 1.1100. A clear break of which can direct the Euro sellers towards February’s high of around 1.1030 and then to the previous monthly high of around 1.1010, quickly followed by the 1.1000 psychological magnet. In a case where the Euro bears dominate past 1.1000, a convergence of the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA, near 1.0850, will be a tough nut to crack for them. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar despite witnessing bullish exhaustion.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers appear well-set to visit $1,985 hurdleGold price rises to the highest level in a month after crossing a convergence of the 200-SMA and a six-week-old descending trend line, around $1,940 by the press time. The breakout joins bullish MACD signals to keep XAUUSD buyers hopeful. However, the overbought RSI (14) conditions suggest limited upside room, which in turn highlights a horizontal resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since May 18, close to $1,985. It’s worth noting that the metal’s upside past $1,985 appears difficult as the $2,000 psychological magnet and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-June downside, near $2,030, could challenge the bulls before directing them to the yearly top marked in May around $2,067. On the contrary, Gold price pullback remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the $1,940 resistance-turned-support comprising the 200-SMA and a 1.5-month-long falling trend line. Following that, the early-month swing high of around $1,934 and the previous resistance line stretched from May 04, close to 1,916, at the latest, will challenge the XAUUSD sellers. In a case where the bullion bears keep the reins past $1,916, the $1,900 will act as the last defense of the bulls. Overall, Gold Price is likely to rise further towards the short-term key resistance as the US Dollar drops heavily.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
12 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty | Will the bulls be We had 2 downward selling momentum, the first one mainly due to the gap up opening - which saw a loss of 106pts by 12.00 and then the 2nd one between 14.40 to close which erased 99pts. Technically Nifty has fallen only 55pts today, the gap-up messed up the numbers. So we had a dip below the yesterday's swing low and retraced all the way to the close of 10th July. The 19504 level is proving to be quite a resistance, rightly so because its the ATH levels. To break free Nifty needs more momentum & the only way to do that is reverse from a sharp fall. Well it made a try on 11th but failed. The 1hr TF has still not turned bearish, for that to happen we should fall below 19301 within the opening hour tomorrow or close the day below 19338. There will be 3 things to watch out tomorrow. 1. India's MoM CPI comes in higher at 4.81% 2. US CPI comes in lower at 3.0% 3. HDFC gets delisted on 13th July Trades Taken & Rationale I was quite surprised to see the gap up open today and the 19300/19400 CE bullish debit spread was trading profitably. I almost had complete belief that N50 will not fall that much. Even when we hit an intraday low by 12.03 my position was deep in losses & did not square off. You wont believe I got panicked by seeing the 13.35 candle, somehow it did not feel right & eventually I closed the position at loss by around 13.42. The prices were 19300 @149.7 & 19400 @72.25. By around 13.50 I started feeling guilty to have over reacted and thought of entering into another bullish spread in the 20th July series. But seeing the 15.00 and 15.05 candles, my guilt turned into relief. Had I held onto those trades the losses would have been 3 times more.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
NZDUSD crosses 200-EMA within bearish channel despite RBNZ inactNZDUSD jumps to a three-week high while piercing the 200-EMA even as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) refrains from lifting interest rates for the first time since October 2021. It’s worth noting, however, that the Kiwi pair remains within a five-month-old bearish channel while approaching the immediate hurdle, namely the previous monthly high of around 0.6250. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 0.6250, the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6290, quickly followed by the 0.6300 round figure, will be crucial to watch as a clear break of the same won’t hesitate to challenge the yearly peak marked in February around 0.6540. On the flip side, a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA, around 0.6220 at the latest, can trigger NZDUSD pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 run-up, near 0.6150. Following that, a six-week-old rising support line surrounding 0.6085 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6030 can test the Kiwi pair sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6030, the 0.6000 psychological magnet precedes the stated channel’s bottom line, near 0.5930, to act as the last defense of the buyers. Overall, NZDUSD shrugs off RBNZ’s status quo and is on the way to challenging the bearish chart pattern.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD retreats from 0.6700 as China inflation easesAUDUSD consolidates the first weekly gain in three as softer inflation numbers from the biggest customers, namely China, drag the quote from a fortnight-old falling resistance line, around the 0.6700 round figure. The pullback move also retreats as the RSI eases from the overbought territory, which in turn suggests the Aussie pair’s further weakness towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-Jun upside, near 0.6630. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 01, close to 0.6585-95, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. In a case where the sellers dominate past 0.6585, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the late May swing low of around 0.6458 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the aforementioned two-week-long descending resistance line around 0.6700 guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the 100-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the late June high of near 0.6720 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6800 can challenge the risk-barometer pair’s upside before directing the bulls toward the previous monthly high of around 0.6900. Overall, AUDUSD’s previous weekly gain appears a one-off affair unless the US inflation signals keep softening.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers must break $1,895 to show dominance on NFP dayWith a clear U-turn from the 100-EMA, Gold price again hits the key support around $1,895 comprising the 200-EMA and an upward-sloping trend line from late November 2022. That said, bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI join the market’s risk-off mood to offer extra incentives for the XAUUSD bears. With this, the Gold sellers are more likely to take out the $1,895 support, which in turn could direct the prices toward the early March swing high of around $1,858. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,845, will precede the yearly low marked in February around $1,805 and the $1,800 round figure to limit the metal’s further downside. On the contrary, a successful daily closing beyond the 100-EMA level of around $1,935 needs support from the downbeat US jobs report to recall the Gold buyers. In that case, February’s peak of around $1,960 and the previous monthly high surrounding $1,983 could check the XAUUSD bulls before allowing them to visit the $2,000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the bullion remains on the front foot once it closes beyond the $2,000 mark, which in turn helps it challenge the tops marked in April and the multi-year high registered in May, respectively near $2,050 and $2,070. Overall, the Gold price is all set to break the key support and recall the bears but the short positions should be taken with care ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Falling wedge highlights EURUSD as markets await FOMC MinutesEURUSD pares weekly losses within a fortnight-long falling wedge bullish chart formation ahead of Fed Minutes. The major currency pair’s rebound appears more interesting as it stays beyond the 200-EMA amid a steady RSI (14) line, suggesting further upside. However, the Euro bulls need to carve out the 1.0920 hurdle to confirm the bullish pattern pointing towards the theoretical target of 1.1100. However, the late June high of around 1.1010 and the yearly peak of around 1.1095 may act as an intermediate halt during the anticipated rise. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-EMA, around 1.0865 at the latest, will direct the EURUSD bears toward confronting the 1.0835-30 support confluence comprising the stated wedge’s bottom line and an ascending trend line from late May. It’s worth noting that a clear downside break of 1.0830 will make the Euro pair vulnerable to testing the early June swing high of around 1.0780. Additionally, the quote’s weakness past 1.0780 could direct it to the previous monthly low of near 1.0660. Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely preparing for a bullish move but the upside needs to cross the 1.0920 resistance and gain support from the dovish Fed Minutes to convince the buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears have a long road ahead before taking controlEURUSD holds onto the previous week’s U-turn from a five-month-old horizontal resistance while bracing for the second weekly loss, targeting the 50-EMA support of around 1.0850 of late amid a looming bear cross on the MACD. That said, the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought RSI also suggests the Euro pair’s further weakness and hence the pair’s fall past the 50-EMA to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of January-April upside, near 1.0785, can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.0715-10, appears a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Even if the quote manages to break the 1.0710 support confluence, an upward-sloping support line from January, surrounding 1.0670, will act as the final defense of the buyers before giving control to the bears. It should be noted, however, that the EURUSD pair’s recovery from the 50-EMA support will be difficult unless crossing the multi-month-old horizontal resistance area around 1.0990. Also acting as the short-term upside hurdle is the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Following that, the yearly high marked in April near 1.1095 holds the key to the major currency pair’s rally toward the March 2022 peak of 1.1185. Overall, the EURUSD is likely to witness further downside but the road towards the south won’t be smooth.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers are ready to break $1,900 but road to the south is Gold stays on the way to post the third consecutive weekly loss even as the one-month-old falling trend line prod XAUUSD sellers around $1,900 of late. Also challenging the quote’s further downside is the nearly oversold RSI (14) line. However, the bullion’s sustained trading beneath the fortnight-long falling trend line and the 200-SMA, respectively near $1,918 and $1,956, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful of witnessing further downside. In a case where the quote crosses these hurdles, the monthly top will join the late May’s swing high, around $1,983-85, to act as the last defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the Gold seller’s dominance past the $1,900 round figure will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its June 09-23 moves, near $1,898. Following that, the 78.6% and 100% FE, close to $1,887 and $1,873, should be quick to lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth observing that the precious metal’s weakness past $1,873 will have the early March high of $1,856 as an intermediate halt before dragging prices toward the yearly low marked in February around $,804. Overall, Gold price is likely to remain bearish but the south run is less likely to be smooth.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on Nifty50 Today & Analysis of 28 JUN 2023Quarterly Analysis of Nifty50 — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023 N50 also rose 11.06% ~ 1888pts, percentage wise same as BN. The price action of N50 was much more healthy with 2 proper legs & occasional retracement that gave it further thrust. If you analyze the pattern from 01 Dec to 28 Jun it looks like a perfect V shape. 16962 support which provided the crucial turn around will be remembered for the next 2 quarters. -- Daily Analysis Nifty50 N50 came prepared today to take out the ATH. During the report yesterday — we did seriously consider this possibility. The momentum really favored the bulls and once RELIANCE started contributing — gains started flowing like a song! Gap up gave N50 a head start of 0.38%, intraday it swung 1% & finally closing with 0.82% gains. Whats Next? would be an ideal question now. Indian stock markets are at euphoric levels even without strong retail participation. Once the news hit the common people, will the FOMO kick in? Stock markets are no way a reflection of what is happening in the economy. The prices of groceries, vegetables, eggs etc are rising day by day — straining the budget of common people. Will the economy rise to match the stock market or will the market falls to be in sync with the economy — only time will tell !
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
AUDUSD bulls have tough time regaining control on Australia inflAUDUSD remains on the back foot at the three-week low after posting the biggest weekly loss since August 2022 on Australia inflation day, breaking convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late May to early June run-up on downbeat Aussise Monthly CPI. Having breached the stated key support, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements, respectively near 0.6625 and 0.6550, act as the final defense of the bulls before directing the downside towards the year-to-date (YTD) low marked in May around 0.6460. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance confluence around 0.6670, comprising the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of an eight-day-long falling resistance line surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the 100-SMA level of around 0.6750 will restrict the AUDUSD pair’s further upside. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6750, a broad resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 10, near 0.6805-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD has more downside room as Canada inflation loomsUSDCAD remains depressed at the year-to-date levels ahead of Canada inflation and US Durable Goods Orders. It’s worth noting that the Loonie pair bears have little fundamental, as well as technical support unless witnessing a corrective bounce. That said, the oversold RSI appears the first catalyst suggesting a rebound in the pair price. With this, a one-month-old falling trend line, around 1.3165 by the press time, precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3210, to restrict the short-term upside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3210, the previous support line stretched from November 2022, close to 1.3350, and the piercing of the 50-EMA to the 200-EMA from above near 1.3400, will act as the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, strong Canada inflation and the downbeat US data may allow the USDCAD bears to keep the reins despite an oversold RSI. The same highlights the 1.3000 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2990 as the next targets for the Loonie pair bears. Should the pair sellers keep dominating past 1.2990, the September 2022 bottom of near 1.2950 will challenge the sellers before directing the pair towards the late 2022 trough close to 1.2725. Overall, the USDCAD bears are likely to stay in the driver’s seat even if a short-term bounce is very much likely.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold Price gradually declines towards $1,900Gold Price breaks a month-old bearish channel towards the south and suggests further downside past the latest three-month low surrounding $1,920. However, the oversold RSI conditions keep offering intermediate bounces as the bullion drops towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 15 to June 16 moves, near $1,907. Following that, the $1,900 round figure may test the XAUUSD bears before highlighting the 78.6% FE level of around $1,890. In a case where the precious metal remains weak past $1,890, the June 2022 peak of near $1,880 and early March 2023 high close to $1,858 will act as the last stops for the bulls to leave the throne and give control to the bears. On the contrary, the bottom line of the stated bearish channel, close to $1,925 at the latest, can escalate the corrective bounce toward the $1,940 hurdle. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and a three-week-old descending trend line, near $1,960, appears a tough nut to crack for the Gold buyers afterward. Even if they manage to cross the $1,960 resistance, the top line of the aforementioned falling trend channel, close to $1,970, will be the final battle before welcoming the bulls. Overall, the Gold price is likely to decline further but the downside appears slow and steady.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays on bull’s list despite pre-BoE retreatGBPUSD dropped in the last three consecutive days and is on the way to posting the first weekly loss in four as the Cable traders prepare for the Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision, despite the latest rebound. Even so, the Pound Sterling remains beyond the 50-SMA and a three-week-old rising support line, respectively near 1.2690 and 1.2655 at the latest. Even if the quote breaks these immediate supports, the monthly swing high of near 1.2540 and the 200-SMA surrounding 1.2520 can act as the last defenses. It should be noted that the RSI is below 50.0 and suggest bottom-picking while the strong UK inflation also increases the hawkish hopes from the BoE. In that case, the weekly resistance line of near 1.2770 and the latest multi-month high marked the last week around 1.2850 will be in the spotlight. However, an upward-sloping trend line from mid-April, close to 1.2870 at the latest, will challenge the GBPUSD bulls afterward. In a case where the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2870, multiple hurdles near 1.2970 and the 1.3000 threshold may test the upside momentum before directing the Pound Sterling prices toward the April 2022 peak of near 1.3150. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to grind higher unless the BoE disappoints markets.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold hovers above $1,940 critical support on Fed dayGold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD buyers and the Fed also can surprise markets, amid dovish hopes and softer US inflation. As a result, the probabilities favoring the metal’s fall to $1,914 and the $1,900 round figures are high, a break of which could recall the early March swing high of around $1,858 and the latest February lows of near $1,804 that act as the last defense of the buyers. On the flip side, another recovery by the Gold price remains elusive unless it breaks the lower-high pattern established since late May. To do so, the bullion needs a daily close beyond the $1,984 mark. Even so, the 50-DMA hurdle of around $1,990 and the $2,000 threshold could play their roles to challenge the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, multiple levels around $2,020 and $2,050 can challenge the metal’s upside momentum before crossing the latest peak of around $2,080. Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision looms.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal