Get started

Inflation

USDCAD appears well-set for further downside towards 1.3500USDCAD justifies a downside break of a five-week-old ascending trend channel, as well as downbeat RSI and MACD signals, despite marching towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November 2022 downside, near 1.3690 ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. Should the inflation gauge suggests further rate hikes from the BoC, as it reiterated the readiness to resume the rate hike trajectory if needed, the Loonie pair will have a further downside to trace. In that case, a convergence of the 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, close to 1.3500, will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers. Following that, the previous resistance line from October 2022 and the 200-DMA, respectively around 1.3430 and 1.3340, may lure the bears. Alternatively, softer inflation data may trigger the USDCAD pair’s corrective bounce. However, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to 1.3800 at the latest, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. Should the quote rises past 1.3800, the monthly peak surrounding 1.3865 and the 2022 peak of 1.3977 may test the bulls ahead of directing them to the stated channel’s top line, near the 1.4000 round figure. To sum up, USDCAD is likely to decline further as the key Canadian inflation data looms. Even if the statistics disappoint the Loonie pair bears, the life of a corrective bounce appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
1
GBPUSD buyers struggle on UK employment, US inflation dayDespite rising in the last four consecutive days, the GBPUSD bulls take a breather ahead of the key UK jobs report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. That said, the three-week-old descending resistance-turned-support-line, around 1.2140 at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the Cable pair. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2100 precedes the one-week-old ascending trend line and the 100-SMA, respectively near 1.2040 and 1.2000, to challenge probe the Cable pair sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.2000, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since February 17, between 1.1915 and 1.1925, could try to prod the Cable bears. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the GBPUSD pair’s January-March fall, around 1.2200, caps the immediate upside around 1.2100. Following that, a run-up towards the mid-February swing high of around 1.2270 appears safe to expect. It should be noted that the quote’s run-up beyond 1.2270 will be crucial to watch as it holds the key to the pair’s run-up toward the previous monthly peak of 1.2400. Overall, the pre-data anxiety joins nearly overbought RSI conditions to probe GBPUSD buyers. However, the bullish MACD signals and hopes for further US Dollar weakness keep the bulls hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar despite recent reboundEURUSD began the month of March on a positive note by crossing a one-month-old descending trend line, as well as poking the 1.0690 resistance confluence including the 200-EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February upside. The recovery also justified bullish MACD signals. However, the RSI (14) retreated from the overbought territory and triggered the quote’s pullback from the key upside hurdle. Even if the pair crosses the 1.0690 immediate resistance, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since January-end, around 1.0788-805, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. It’s worth noting that the quote’s successful run-up beyond 1.0805 won’t hesitate to challenge January’s high of near 1.0930. Meanwhile, pullback moves could aim for the previous resistance line from early February, close to 1.0585. Following that, lows marked during the previous month and January, near 1.0530 and 1.0480 in that order, could lure the EURUSD bears. Should the pair remains bearish past 1.0480, bottoms marked in late November around 1.0290 and 1.0220 may act as the last stops for the sellers before highlighting the parity level of 1.0000. Overall, EURUSD is likely to grind higher for the short term but the medium-term bearish trend remains intact.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD turns bearish but road to the south is long and bumpyEven if sustained trading below the 100-DMA and a three-month-old ascending trend line become necessary for the AUD/USD bears, a daily closing below the 200-DMA and an upward-sloping previous support line from October 2022 signals the pair’s further decline. Further, the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI adds strength to the downside bias. Hence, the sellers should wait for a clear downside move below 0.6720 to aim for the lows marked in late December and November of 2022, respectively around 0.6630 and 0.6585. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Aussie pair’s October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6550, appears the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains elusive unless the quote stays below a convergence of the 200-DMA and four-month-old previous support, close to 0.6800. Adding to the upside filters is the December 2022 high near 0.6895 and the mid-month peak of 0.7030. In a case where the Aussie buyers keep the reins, the monthly high surrounding 0.7160 could lure the bulls. Overall, AUDUSD is ready to witness further downside but the downturn is less likely to be smooth.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold pokes key support surrounding $1,820Gold extends the early February fall towards two-month-old horizontal support near $1,825-23, despite posting the indecisive closing in the last week. The bearish bias also gains strength from the clear downside break of an ascending trend line from early November and the 50-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) hints at the grinding of the metal prices near the stated crucial support. Should the quote drops below $1,820, early December peak near $1,810 and the $1,800 round figure may probe the gold sellers before directing them to the 200-DMA support level of around $1,775. It’s worth noting that the November 2022 high of $1,786 acts as an extra filter toward the south. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA and the previous support line from the last November, respectively around $1,860 and $1,883, could challenge the Gold price recovery. Following that, the $1,900 round figure will be important to the metal buyers. In a case where the bullion remains firmer past $1,900, the monthly high of $1,960 and the late March 2022 top near $1,966 should challenge the run-up targeting the $2,000 psychological magnet. Overall, Gold is likely to decline further only if it manages to break the $1,820 level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD recovery remains unconvincing ahead of UK inflationGBPUSD holds onto the recovery from an early February rebound from a three-month-old ascending support line, staying beyond the 100-day EMA to lure more bids. Adding strength to the upside bias is the upward-sloping RSI (14) line and the recently upbeat MACD signals. However, the previous support from early November, near 1.2265, acts as an immediate hurdle to challenge the bulls. Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since December, near 1.2450, appears crucial for the Cable buyers to tighten the holds, a break of which could propel prices towards May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2665. On the flip side, the 100-day EMA level surrounding 1.2040 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet challenge short-term pullbacks of the GBPUSD. That said, a clear downside break of the 1.2000 mark needs validation from the aforementioned support line from November 17, close to 1.1965 at the latest, to convince bears. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.1965, the odds of witnessing a slump towards January’s low near 1.1840 and the mid-November 2022 bottom surrounding 1.1760 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest run-up, which in turn highlights today’s UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound appears shallow ahead of important EU, US dataBe it sustained trading below the 3.5-month-old ascending trend line or the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, the EURUSD pair has it all to lure bears as first readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP and US CPI for January loom. Even so, the pair’s latest run-up beyond the 50-DMA hurdle seems to challenge the bears. That said, the quote’s fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the 50-DMA support of 1.0700 to aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0530. However, the previous monthly low near 1.0400 and the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.0370 could act as the last defense of the bears afterward. Alternatively, the late 2022 peak around 1.0740 and the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to 1.0950, could probe the EURUSD buyers in case the data favors Euro buyers and the US Dollar sellers. It’s worth observing that the 1.1000 round figure and the current monthly high of 1.1033 are likely to act as additional upside filters during the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0950. Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await important catalysts. It should be observed, however, that the volatility around the scheduled events is likely to be high and hence traders should wait for markets to stabilize after the data before taking any major positions.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD sellers need to conquer 1.0670 to retake controlEURUSD fades bounce off the 10-week-old ascending support line as the weekly resistance line and the 200-SMA challenge buyers. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14). As a result, the quote is likely to return to the bear’s table after a four-month absence. That said, a downside break of the stated support line, close to 1.0670, could act as a trigger for the downside targeting the previous monthly low surrounding 1.0480. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s November late November 2022 to early February peak, respectively near 1.0570 and 1.0450, could act as extra downside filters to watch before targeting the late November swing low of 1.0290. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 200-SMA, around 1.0765 at the latest. Following that, the EURUSD pair’s run-up towards 1.0800 and then to 1.0930 can’t be ruled. In a case where the prices remain firmer past 1.0930, the 1.1000 psychological magnet and the monthly high of 1.1033 should gain the market’s attention. It should be observed that the rally beyond 1.1033 enables bulls to aim for a March 2022 peak of 1.1185. To sum up, EURUSD buyers appear running out of steam but the bears must conquer the multi-day-old support line to return to the driver’s seat.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eases inside two-month-old bullish channelBetter-than-expected US growth numbers triggered the much-awaited pullback in the EURUSD prices from the eight-month high. The retreat, however, stays inside a two-month-long ascending trend channel, which in turn suggests less incentive for the bears. Even so, the previous weekly low surrounding 1.0765 and December’s peak of 1.0736 could lure short-term sellers. Following that, an upward-sloping support line from early November, close to 1.0730 might probe the further downside. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 1.0730 could make it vulnerable to testing the 1.0610-600 support confluence comprising the 50-DMA and lower line of the stated bullish chart formation. In a case where the pair stays weaker past 1.0600, the bears could have an easy battle to retake control. Meanwhile, EURUSD buyers could drill the aforementioned channel’s top line, around 1.0950 by the press time, during the fresh advances. Following that, the 1.1000 round figure could probe the upside momentum. It’s worth observing that the tops marked during March 2022 around 1.1140 and 1.1185 appear the easy reach for the pair bulls in case of its successful trade beyond 1.1000 psychological magnet. Overall, EURUSD bulls aren’t off the table but are tired enough to trigger a pullback.
by MTradingGlobal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JAN 2023 ExpiryWell for starters - yesterday's bullish call didnt go that well. NSE:BANKNIFTY ended 0.21% lower. Luckily its only down 37 odd pts because at 13.35 we were 595pts ~ 1.41% from the HOD. If you had read by bullish call before that - you would have thought i am crazy. From an expiry trading perspective today proved to be an ideal day for traders both bulls & bears, thats because we had 2 swings today. Bears till 13.30 and Bulls in the last 1hr. But i think more traders would have lost money today, thats because by the trend set in the day - no one would have anticipated the recovery in the last 1 hr. So ATM option writers of call options would have hit into stop losses. Also there is an equal probability that buyers of PE option 42000 to 41500 would have lost much more - like i did. Anyways its not our cup of tea to tame the beast bank nifty is - we just need to survive to fight another day! I guess i should start trading US markets as my predictions are more accurate there, well it could also be because i dont have skin in the game there as i paper trade there. And here in India - since i deploy funds, my emotional aspect also comes into play ! --- US CPI data has come at 6.5%, last year it had increased 7.5%  Lets say the inflation value is say 1000 in Jan 2021, then by Jan 2022 it became 1075 and in Jan 2023 it became 1144.87 - i dont understand why people feel inflation is cooling down. Or is my math wrong? SP:SPX --- Looking at the bank nifty components, you would believe that we fell only 37pts today NSE:HDFCBANK was the only bank that fought for the bulls - up 0.53% NSE:ICICIBANK was the major contributor that helped BN cut its losses last 2hr. because it moved up 8pts ~ 1% NSE:SBIN was showing trend continuation pattern from yesterday, but the reversal from 13.45 helped it cut the losses to only 0.3% NSE:AXISBANK also had the last 2 hr recovery, but its pattern is still bearish. NSE:KOTAKBANK had some deep cuts earlier in the day, was down 1.84% by 11am a near vertical drop. Although there was some stability afterwards the chart pattern is still bearish. NSE:INDUSINDBK was just continuing from yesterday's trend. Prefer to say that volatility was relatively lower for this bank today comparing peers. --- 15mts chart may prompt most analysts to go bearish, but for me i would like to see the support level taken out first before going short. 1hr chart looks more bearish than 15mts thats because of the prior day's fall creating the illusion of fall. Until 41620 stays intact - its still not safe to go short.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD portrays bullish trend-widening formationEURUSD grinds higher around the seven-month top inside a rising megaphone chart pattern on the daily formation. In addition to the bullish chart pattern, the upbeat RSI and bullish MACD signals also keep buyers hopeful. That said, May 2022’s peak surrounding 1.0786 and 1.0800 are likely immediate targets for the bulls. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s March-September downside, near 1.0835, could challenge the upside momentum afterward. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.0835, the stated megaphone’s top line, close to 1.0960, should lure the optimists. On the contrary, the one-month-old descending previous resistance line around 1.0700 restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a pullback towards the aforementioned bullish pattern’s support line, adjacent to 1.0550, will be important to watch for sellers. Should the quote drops below 1.0550, a downward trajectory towards the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA, respectively near 1.0460 and 1.0300, can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that the quote’s weakness past 1.0300 could welcome bears with open hands. To sum up, EURUSD is likely to remain firmer but the road to the north is bumpy and long.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need $1,880 breakout for confirmationGold buyers struggle with an 11-month-old horizontal resistance, despite crossing an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early October 2022. The upside momentum also finds hindrances from the nearly overbought RSI line. However, a looming golden cross, a condition when 50-DMA pierces the 200-DMA from above, joins the metal’s sustained trading above the previous key hurdles to keep XAUUSD bulls hopeful of crossing the $1,880 hurdle. Following that, the May 2022 peak of $1,910 and the late April high surrounding $1,920 could challenge the quote’s upside before directing March 26, 2022 top close to $1,967. In a case where the prices remain firmer past $1,967, highs marked during April and March of the last year, near $1,999 and $2,070 respectively, should lure the bullion buyers. Alternatively, pullback moves remain less harmful to the upward trajectory unless staying beyond the previous resistance line from October, close to $1,865. On breaking the $1,865 support, Gold sellers could aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-September 2022 downturn, around $1,842, which will precede the March 2022 top of $1,808 to limit the short-term downside of the metal. It’s worth noting, however, that the convergence of the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA around the $1,775-70 zone appears a tough nut to crack for the bears afterward before retaking control. Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam but the bears have a long way to go before acquiring the driver’s seat.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold has little room to the north as traders brace for holiday sGold retreats from a weekly horizontal resistance that’s near a top-end of an upward-sloping trend channel stretched since mid-November. Not only the stated channel’s upper line but RSI pullback and looming bear cross on the MACD also suggest that the gold buyers are running out of steam. As a result, a pullback towards the stated bullish channel’s support, near $1,785, appears imminent. However, a lack of market participation due to the year-end holidays may restrict the metal’s moves around then, if not then the 200-SMA near $1,767 could challenge the bears. Alternatively, the aforementioned horizontal hurdle near $1,823-25 limits the precious metal’s immediate upside before highlighting the five-week-old rising channel’s top line, close to $1,837. In a case where gold buyers manage to cross the $1,837 resistance, June’s high near $1,880 could act as a tough nut to crack for the bulls targeting the $1,900 threshold. Overall, gold buyers appear to run out of steam but the downside also seems bumpy and the holiday season could play its role too. Hence, the metal may grind higher as traders prepare for the one last shot of important US data.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Ascending triangle teases USDCAD bears ahead of BOC inflationUSDCAD portrays a bearish triangle formation after multiple rejections from the 1.3700 threshold. The sellers, however, await a clear downside break of the stated formation’s support, near 1.3590 by the press time, as well as the Bank of Canada inflation data. A clear break of the stated 1.3590 support, backed by upbeat BOC CPI, could quickly drag the quote to the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.3490-85. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s October-November fall, near 1.3400, could act as an intermediate halt during the south run aiming the theoretical target of 1.3270. In a case where the Loonie pair remains depressed below 1.3270, the previous monthly low, close to 1.3235, will gain the market’s attention. Alternatively, USDCAD needs a successful clearance of the 1.3700 hurdle, as well as softer Canada inflation, to defy the bearish chart formation. In that case, the previous monthly top and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3810 will be in the spotlight. Should the Loonie pair remains firmer past 1.3810, the 1.3900 round figure and November’s high near 1.3975 could entertain buyers before highlighting the 1.4000 psychological magnet. Overall, USDCAD bears are ready for entry as traders await the key data from Canada.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD juggles near six-month high ahead of Fed meetingDownbeat US inflation data propelled the EURUSD pair to the highest levels since June on Tuesday. However, the upper line of the one-month-old bullish channel, currently around 1.0670, probed the pair buyers at the multi-day top. Also challenging the Euro bulls is the overbought RSI conditions suggesting a pullback in prices. As a result, an upward-sloping trend line from the December start, close to 1.0520 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. However, 100-SMA and the bottom of the stated channel, respectively near 1.0450 and 1.0400, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the Fed sounds too hawkish and the pair defies the bullish chart pattern, a slump towards the 200-SMA and then to the late October swing high, near 1.0275 and 1.0090 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, successful trading beyond the immediate hurdle, namely the aforementioned channel’s top near 1.0670, could get another chance to retreat near the 1.0700 threshold due to the consistently overbought RSI. In a case where EURUSD bulls ignore RSI and cross the 1.0700 resistance, May’s peak near 1.0785 and March’s low surrounding 1.0805 could act as the last defenses of the pair sellers. That said, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.0800 may target a late April high near 1.0935 and the 1.1000 round figure. Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to occupy the driver’s seat unless the US Federal Reserve appears too hawkish, which is less anticipated.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD has more upside to track but 1.3700 is the key hurdleUSDCAD grabbed the bull’s attention ever since it crossed a two-month-old descending resistance line, now support around 1.3500. The upside bias also takes clues from the firmer RSI and MACD. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s October-November downside, near 1.3695, appears a tough nut to crack for buyers. Also acting as an upside filter is the monthly high of 1.3700, a break of which could quickly propel the quote towards November’s peak surrounding 1.3805. It’s worth noting that the Loonie pair’s run-up beyond 1.3805 could aim for October’s high near 1.3980, as well as the 1.4000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3600 restricts the USDCAD pair’s short-term downside ahead of highlighting the 1.3500 support confluence including the resistance-turned-support line from October and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Even if the pair declines below 1.3500, a convergence of 100-SMA and 200-SMA at 1.3485 appears strong support. Overall, USDCAD is likely to rise further but the 1.3700 resistance challenges the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD grinds higher inside three-week-old bullish channelEURUSD is likely to end the two-week-old winning streak as traders brace for key consumer-centric data from the US. However, an ascending trend channel from November 15 portrays the short-term bullish bias of traders. That said, the monthly high surrounding 1.0600 and the stated channel’s top near 1.0620 limits the quote’s immediate advances. In a case where the pair defies the bullish chart pattern by crossing the 1.0620 hurdle, the upward trajectory could aim for May’s high near 1.0785. On the downside, the 100-SMA level of 1.0400 restricts the nearby downside of the major currency pair, a break of which will highlight the channel’s support line surrounding 1.0380. Should the EURUSD bears manage to conquer the 1.0380 support, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 200-SMA level near 1.0200 can’t be ruled out. However, tops marked during late October and early November close to 1.0100-0090 offer a strong support zone to the sellers. Overall, EURUSD remains firmer inside the bullish chart formation but the upside room appears to be limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam as 2022 is near to endGBPUSD posted the biggest monthly gains since mid-2020 in November. However, the latest bullish trajectory appears doubtful as the pair stays beneath a one-month-old previous support line. That said, the 50-SMA restricts the pair’s immediate downside near 1.1985. Following that, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.1860 could act as the last defense of the pair buyers before directing bears towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of November 04-24 upside, near 1.1650. Meanwhile, the upside break of the stated support-turned-resistance line, around 1.2190. Although the RSI conditions may turn overbought and challenge further advances near 1.2190, a successful run-up won’t hesitate to aim for the August month’s high near 1.2295. It should be noted that the GBPUSD pair’s sustained trading beyond the 1.2300 round figure should give a free hand to bulls targeting the mid-2020 peak surrounding 1.2665, with 1.2405 likely acting as a buffer.
by MTradingGlobal
Bearish RSI divergence teases EURUSD sellers on a crucial dayAlthough the EURUSD pair is all set to register the biggest monthly gain since September 2010, a bearish RSI divergence on the Daily chart challenges the quote’s further upside as traders await Eurozone inflation and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The price-negative signal could be known when the quote makes higher highs but the oscillator, RSI (14) in this case, prints lower tops. Also raising doubts about the pair’s further upside is its repeated failures to stay successfully beyond the 200-DMA, currently around 1.0380. It’s worth noting, however, that a fresh high of the monthly, close to 1.0500 at the latest, could reject the bearish divergence in case the RSI ticks up beyond the latest peak surrounding 60.40. Even so, the highs marked during late June near 1.0615 will precede the June month’s top of 1.0773 to test the bulls before allowing them to challenge May’s peak of 1.0786. Meanwhile, the previous weekly low close to 1.0220 seems to lure the short-term sellers of the EURUSD pair. Following that, September’s high near 1.0195 could act as the last defense of the buyers before directing the prices towards October’s top of 1.0088. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0088, the parity level will precede the early September swing low around 0.9865 to please the bears. Overall, EURUSD bulls are running out of steam as they brace for the key data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers need $1,720 breakout to keep the controlsGold prices are so far up for the second consecutive week as traders await the key US inflation data. In addition to the CPI print, the metal’s further upside also hinges on a convergence of the 100-DMA and a two-month-old descending trend line, surrounding $1,716. A clear break of $1,716 could enable the bulls to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August-September downside, near $1,735. It is worth noting, however, that the late August swing high of around $1,765 could challenge the bullion buyers past $1,735 while any further upside won’t hesitate to challenge the August month’s high near $1,808. Alternatively, strong US inflation data and a sustained pullback from the $1,716 resistance confluence will need validation from the $1,700 threshold to convince gold bears. Following that, the 50-DMA level surrounding $1,672 could act as the last defense of buyers. In a case where the gold remains bearish past the 50-DMA breakdown, $1,630, $1,620 and the yearly low near $1,614 could offer intermediate halts before highlighting the $1,600 round figure on the chart. Overall, gold is likely to witness further upside but it all depends upon the US data, as well as the $1,720 breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls flex muscles but 0.6530 holds the gateAUDUSD retreats to the upper line of a one-month-old symmetrical triangle. However, the RSI (14) suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. As a result, the upside momentum appears doubtful unless witnessing a successful break of the 0.6480 hurdle. Even so, multiple hurdles surrounding the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s downside between September 20 and October 13, around 0.6530, appears as the key resistance to watch for a better view. If the quote manages to stay beyond 0.6530, the odds of a run-up towards 0.6570 and then to 0.6655-60 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive unless staying beyond the 200-SMA level surrounding the 0.6400 threshold. Following that, 0.6365 and 0.6345 levels can entertain the AUDUSD bears. It should be noted, however, that the aforementioned triangle’s support line, close to 0.6290 at the latest, will be crucial to follow afterward. In a case where the pair successfully breaks the 0.6290 support, it becomes vulnerable to refreshing the yearly low, currently around 0.6170. Overall, AUDUSD lures buyers but confirmation is necessary before taking a long position.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD gradually rises inside six-week-old bullish channelEURUSD extends the previous three-week uptrend as traders await Eurozone Retail Sales and the US inflation data. The quote’s latest upside could be portrayed by an upward-sloping trend channel. That said, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of September 12-28 downside, near 1.0070, lures short-term buyers. In a case where a nearly overbought RSI fails to stop the pair’s upside, the stated channel’s upper line near 1.0140 will gain the market’s attention, a break of which could challenge September’s peak surrounding 1.0200. Alternatively, the pullback move could aim for the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, near 0.9945 and 0.9865 in that order. Following that, the 200-SMA level near 0.9810 and the bullish channel’s support line, close to 0.9750, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD buyers. If the quote defies the bullish chart pattern, multiple supports near 0.9640 and 0.9580 could test the sellers before directing them towards refreshing the yearly low, currently around 0.9535. Overall, EURUSD is likely to grind higher but the room towards the north appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bears are far from taking control USDCAD posted the biggest daily slump in six years on Friday and pushed back the bulls. The bears, however, have a long way to cover before taking control as a 15-month-old rising trend line, around 1.3330 by the press time, defends the upside expectations. Even if the quote breaks the said key support, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside, near 1.3200, appears the last defense of the buyers before finally welcoming the sellers. Alternatively, recovery moves need successful trading beyond 1.3500 to convince the USDCAD buyers. Even so, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly high, respectively around 1.3680 and 1.3810, could challenge the upside momentum. Following that, multiple hurdles near 1.3840-50 will precede the yearly top surrounding 1.3980 to probe the bulls. If the pair rises past 1.3980, the 1.4000 psychological magnet and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of September-October moves, close to 1.4135, should be in the spotlight. Overall, USDCAD may witness a bit of corrective due to the 50-DMA break but the downtrend is far from here.
by MTradingGlobal