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Inflation

EURUSD signals further downside, 0.9670 in focusAfter staying off the bear’s radar during the first two days of the week, EURUSD returned to the red zone as it broke the weekly support line. The trend line breakdown joins downbeat oscillators to keep sellers hopeful of meeting an upward-sloping trend line support from September 28, around 0.9670. The quote’s further downside, however, will be challenged by the monthly low of 0.9631, a break of which could quickly drag prices towards the multi-year low marked in the last month around 0.9535. Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance around 0.9840 guards the immediate recovery moves. However, a convergence of 200-SMA and a five-week-old descending resistance line, close to 0.9855, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls. It should be noted, though, that the pair’s successful break of 0.9855 will open the doors for the run-up toward challenging the monthly peak surrounding the parity mark that seems the last defense of the bears. Overall, EURUSD has already welcomed the bears but the party appears a small one unless breaking 0.9670.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD needs to cross and stay beyond 1.1500 to convince buyersGBPUSD seesaws around a monthly resistance line, after successfully crossing the 200-SMA, as buyers await the UK inflation data. In addition to the stated trend line hurdle surrounding 1.1330, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of September 13-26 downside, near 1.1435 and the monthly peak of 1.1495 could challenge the quote’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained run-up beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level will need validation from the 1.1500 round figure to give control to buyers. Following that, a rally towards crossing the previous monthly top around 1.1740 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, pullback moves are unimportant beyond the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.1280. In a case GBPUSD drops back below the key SMA support, an upward-sloping support line form stretched from September 28, close to 1.1110, will be important to watch. Additionally, a three-week-old horizontal area near 1.0930-20 appears a last defense of the Cable buyers, a break of which could quickly direct the quote towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0670 and the September 29 swing low around 1.0540 before highlighting the all-time bottom of 1.0345 flashed the last month. Overall, GBPUSD tries to convince buyers but the road to the north is a long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls need to cross 147.70 to stay on the tableUSDJPY poked the year 1998 high on Thursday while piercing a weekly resistance line, staying near the immediate resistance line of late. That said, the RSI is overbought as the pair struggles with the 24-year high near 147.70, which in turn suggests hardships for the further upside move. If the quote crosses the 147.70 hurdle, its run-up towards an upward-sloping trend line from late April, near 149.00, and the 150.00 psychological magnet will become imminent. It’s worth noting, however, that the buyer’s dominance past 150.00 won’t hesitate to challenge the late 1990 peak surrounding 151.65. Meanwhile, sellers could take entries if the USDJPY pair breaks a 2.5-month-old support line, currently around 144.60. Following that, a south-run to late September low near 140.35 and then to the 140.00 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, July’s top near 139.40 could challenge the sellers afterward, failing to do so can draw a gradual south-run towards August month’s bottom close to 130.40. Overall, USDJPY is near the key resistances as the overbought RSI suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. Hence, a pullback is well-expected but the change of trend is off the table unless the quote breaks 144.60.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold’s rebound remains unconvincing below $1,692A two-month-old previous resistance line defends gold buyers as they seek clarity ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also keeping the metal bulls hopeful is the 50-SMA’s piercing of the 200-SMA from below, known as the bull cross or golden cross. It’s worth noting, however, that the recovery remains elusive unless the bullion stays successfully beyond the aforementioned SMA convergence near $1,690-92. Following that, a run-up toward the monthly high near $1,730 appears imminent. Even so, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the quote’s August-September downside, respectively near $1,735 and $1,767, will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, a downside break of the $1660 support confluence, including the resistance-turned-support line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could convince gold sellers. In that case, the $1,640 and the yearly low of $1,614 might entertain the bears on their way to the $1,600 threshold. If the metal prices remain weak past $1,600, the April 2020 low near $1,570 should become the yearly bottom. Overall, gold is teasing the buyers but confirmation is necessary from both, the US inflation data and technical details.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold consolidates monthly losses inside bearish channelGold braces for the first weekly gain in three while bouncing off a two-year low inside a one-month-old bearish channel. That said, the metal’s latest recovery approaches a fortnight-old hurdle surrounding $1665. Any further upside, however, will be challenged by the stated channel’s upper limit, close to $1,680. If the buyers manage to defy the bearish chart pattern, the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,707 could act as the last defense of the bears before activating the run-up to refresh the monthly top, currently around $1,734. Alternatively, gold’s pullback may aim for the latest swing low surrounding $1,641 before directing the bears towards the yearly bottom of $1,614. In a case where the bullion sellers keep controls past $1,614, the aforementioned channel’s bottom at around $1,607 and the $1,600 should probe the further downside. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past $1,600 won’t hesitate to aim for the tops marked during August and September 2019, around $1555-57. Overall, gold holds onto the bearish trajectory but a short-term rebound can’t be ruled out.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears again aim for sub-0.6400 areaAUDUSD fails to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off the two-year low as a 12-day-old resistance line joins the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-August moves, around 0.6530, to recall the bears. The nearly oversold RSI conditions, however, challenge the pullback moves, which in turn suggest limited downside and highlight the 78.6% FE level near 0.6365. In a case where the pair declines below 0.6365, the 0.6300 and the 0.6200 thresholds may please the bears before directing them to the 100% FE level near 0.6150. Alternatively, recovery moves must stay successfully beyond the 0.6530 resistance confluence to aim for the 2.5-month-old hurdle, around 0.6680-85. Following that, the monthly high near 0.6915 and a downward sloping resistance line from early June, close to 0.7020, will be in focus. Overall, AUDUSD is up for further downside but the room to the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD recalls bears targeting 1.1400, UK CPI in the spotlightGBPUSD seesaws below 50-SMA after breaking the weekly support line, not to forget to mention the reversal from a three-week-old horizontal hurdle. The pullback also takes clues from the downside RSI and MACD to suggest further downside towards the yearly low marked the last week around 1.1400. It should, however, be noted that a 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August 17 to September 13 moves, near 1.1280, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. If not then, the downward sloping support line from August 22, close to 1.1230 by the press time, will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD rebound remains elusive unless crossing the one-month-old horizontal resistance area near 1.1745-50. That said, the one-week-long support-turned-resistance around 1.1630 guards the immediate recovery. If at all the cable pair rises past 1.1750, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.1890 could act as the last defense for bears, a break of which could give control to the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is back into the bear’s court and is likely to renew the yearly low ahead of the key UK inflation numbers.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls struggle to retake control ahead of US inflationOn Monday, EURUSD rose past 200-SMA for the first time in a month and formed a bullish channel. However, the following pullback from 1.0197 flirts with the stated channel’s lower line near 1.0130. Following that, the 1.0100 threshold comprising the 200-SMA, could test the pair bears ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. Hence, a recovery towards 1.0200 can’t be ruled out. However, the aforementioned channel’s top and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of August-September downside, respectively around 1.0225 and 1.0265, could challenge the pair’s further advances, if not, then a run-up towards the previous monthly peak surrounding 1.0370 could appear on the chart. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0100 key SMA level could quickly drag EURUSD prices towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the stated moves, close to 1.0055. Following that, the 1.0000 parity level and the 0.9910 may entertain the bears before redirecting them to the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.9860. Overall, EURUSD regains its place on the buyer’s radar but the uptrend remains doubtful as strong US inflation may recall the US dollar bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD rebound needs validation ahead of Eurozone inflationHaving refreshed the multi-year low the previous week, EURUSD rose during the last two days. That said, the pair traders await flash readings of Eurozone inflation data for August on Wednesday for fresh impulse as they poke a two-week-old resistance line, around 1.0050 by the press time. If the data manages to propel the prices to cross an immediate hurdle, the 100-EMA level surrounding 1.0075 and the 1.0100 threshold will act as the last defenses for the sellers. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0100 enables buyers to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August 10-23 downside, near 1.090, wherein the mid-August swing low of 1.0121 may offer an intermediate halt. On the flip side, the 0.9980 and 0.9950 levels can offer nearby support to the EURUSD pair during its fresh declines. Following that, the 19-year low marked in the last week at around 0.9900 should gain the market’s attention. Also acting as the downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August 12-26 moves, near 0.9860. Elsewhere, steady RSI and the sluggish MACD signal that the bears are running out of steam. However, it all depends upon the Consumer Price Index (CPI), recently known as the Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Index (HICP).
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD needs to cross 1.0360 hurdle to convince buyersUS inflation allowed EURUSD to extend the three-day uptrend towards refreshing the monthly peak, by also piercing a downward sloping resistance line from late March. However, a horizontal area comprising the 50-DMA and lows marked during May and June, around 1.0345-60, appeared a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Hence, a daily closing beyond 1.0360 becomes necessary for the pair to remain firmer. Following that, a run-up towards the 100-DMA and the late June swing high, respectively near 1.0540 and 1.0620, seems imminent. Alternatively, pullback moves remain unimpressive beyond late July’s peak surrounding 1.0275-80. Also acting as a downside filter is an ascending support line from July 14, close to 1.0180. In a case where EURUSD remains bearish past 1.0180, the south-run could extend towards 1.0100 and the 1.0000 parity level before challenging the yearly low near 0.9950. That said, EURUSD buyers have higher odds of return as the technical breakout gains support from the MACD and RSI, not to forget the softer US CPI. However, the confirmation is pending and much needed.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers brace for $1,840 ahead of US CPIGold remains firmer around one-month high, staying successfully above the $1,787-88 confluence comprising the 50-DMA and a five-month-old descending trend line. The same joined firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful of further upside. However, the $1,800 threshold could challenge the upside momentum before directing the bulls towards the convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA near $1,840. Following that, a north-run towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July downturn, near $1,877, can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, pullback moves remain elusive until the quote stays beyond $1,787, a break of which could direct the gold prices towards the previous weekly low near $1,754. In a case where gold bears keep reins past $1,754, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards $1,740 and $1,710 can’t be ruled out. If at all the bullion fails to improve from $1,710, the $1,700 round figure could act as the last defense of gold buyers ahead of highlighting the yearly low of $1,680 to the traders. Overall, gold signaled further upside ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. However, the outcome of the inflation report is awaited for clear directions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bears aim for 100-DMA inside 10-month-old rising channelUSDCAD extends the week-start pullback from a three-week high inside an upward sloping trend channel established since late October 2021. Given the downbeat RSI and the bearish MACD signals, the Loonie pair is likely to remain pressured inside the bullish chart formation. However, the 100-DMA support near 1.2785 could challenge the bears. Also acting as a downside filter are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of October 2021 to July 2022 upside, respectively near 1.2755 and 1.2640. In a case where the pair drops below 1.2640 support, the bears could well challenge the bullish pattern while poking the 1.2570 key support. Alternatively, recovery moves could aim for the latest swing high near 1.2985 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet. Following that, multiple tops marked near 1.3075-80 could challenge the USDCAD bulls. However, the aforementioned channel’s resistance line, close to 1.3150 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers afterward. Even if the pair rises past 1.3150, the latest swing high surrounding 1.3230 will be in focus. Overall, USDCAD remains on the bull’s radar but intermediate pullbacks can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on 0.6195 breakAlthough 20-DMA triggered the NZDUSD pair’s latest rebound, the first weekly loss in three joined RSI retreat to keep bears hopeful. The downside momentum, however, needs validation from the three-month-old horizontal support area around 0. 6210-0.6195, other than the 20-DMA level of 0.6225, to push back the buyers. Following that, the previous monthly low, also the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6060, will be in focus. Should the quote remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late April to early August moves, close to 0.5990, may lure the sellers. Meanwhile, recovery moves remain unimpressive below a downward sloping resistance line from early June, around 0.6335 by the press time. Even so, the monthly peak surrounding 0.6355 and the mid-June swing high of 0.6395 could challenge the NZDUSD buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the Kiwi pair’s run-up beyond 0.6395 may wait for a successful run-up above the 0.6400 round figure before giving the control to bulls targeting June’s high near 0.6575. Overall, NZDUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await key inflation data from New Zealand and the US.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY breaks key support before Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeUSDJPY broke a five-week-old support line, as well as a horizontal area around 134.25 that comprises the levels marked since June 17, to refresh the monthly low near 133.75. It’s worth noting, however, that oversold RSI conditions challenge the bears ahead of the US PCE Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation data. However, the corrective pullback needs validation from the immediate horizontal support-turned-resistance around 134.20, as well as the ascending trend line from June 23, near 135.75, to recall the buyers. Even so, the 200-SMA near 136.20 will test the upside momentum. On the contrary, the pair’s further downside aims at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July upside, around 133.15. Following that, the 131.50-25 area comprising mid-June lows and highs marked in April, as well as in May, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained declines past 131.25 could make it vulnerable to revisiting May’s low around 126.35. Overall, USDJPY recently broke the crucial support but the odds favoring further downside are fewer.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD recovery hinges on 0.6200 breakoutNZDUSD ended the third loss-making week on a positive side, by marking the biggest daily gains in three weeks. The Kiwi pair, however, couldn’t cross a one-month-old resistance line, which in turn joins steady RSI to keep sellers hopeful. Even if the quote rises past 0.6170 hurdle, a horizontal area from mid-June around 0.6200, comprising the 100-SMA, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Though, a successful break of 0.6200 could quickly propel the quote towards 0.6250 before teasing the bulls to aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July downside, near 0.6325. On the other hand, pullback moves may initially rest around the 0.6100 support before challenging the recently flashed two-year low around 0.6060. In a case where NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6060, the 0.6000 psychological magnet will be important to watch as a clear break of the same could direct sellers toward May 2020 low near 0.5920. Fundamentally, the recent New Zealand inflation data came in firmer than expected and raised possibilities of aggressive rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), keeping NZDUSD bulls hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears need validation from $1,690 to keep reinsGold braces for the fifth consecutive weekly fall at the yearly low. However, oversold RSI challenges the bears as they approach the $1,690 support confluence, comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-August 2020 upside and an ascending trend line from May 2020. If the precious metal posts the weekly close below $1,690, it becomes vulnerable to testing the 200-week moving average (WMA) near $1,650. It’s worth noting that the $1,650 level is the last defense for the bullion buyers and a break of which will give rein to sellers. Alternatively, the corrective pullback may aim for September 2021 low surrounding $1,721 before eying the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,765. In a case where gold prices manage to stay beyond $1,765, the $1,800 threshold and the previous support line from early 2020, around $1,865, will regain the market’s attention. Overall, the gold price is about the reach the bear’s home but multiple hurdles could trigger the corrective pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD stays inside short-term bearish channel at yearly lowAUDUSD justifies its risk-barometer status aptly as it remains near the two-year bottom, inside a 12-day-long bearish channel. The quote’s further downside, however, appears limited in the short-term due to the nearness to the stated channel’s lower line, close to 0.6690 at the latest. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 16 to July 05 moves, near 0.6705, could offer immediate support to the Aussie pair. In a case where the bears refrain from stepping back from 0.6690, the 78.6% FE level near 0.6650 could gain major attention. Alternatively, the 50-SMA level surrounding 0.6800 guards the immediate recovery moves ahead of the immediate descending channel’s upper line, around 0.6840 by the press time. It’s worth noting that a clear upside break of the 0.6840 hurdle isn’t a call to the AUDUSD bulls as the 100-SMA level of 0.6855 could challenge the advances afterward. Should the quote rises past 0.6855, the odds of its run-up towards the late June swing high near 0.6965 and then to the 0.7000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall AUDUSD remains in a bearish trajectory, despite the recently firmer Aussie jobs report and increasing calls about the RBA’s aggression. However, the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces off key support ahead of US inflation dataEURUSD bears take a breather after refreshing the 20-year low the previous day. The corrective pullback, however, takes place at the lower end of the nearly four-month-old bearish channel. The rebound also gains support from oversold RSI and that too is ahead of the key US CPI data. Hence, sellers need caution and look for a clear upside break of the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of March-May moves, near 1.0140, to change the bias. Even so, the 61.8% FE and May’s low, respectively around 1.0275 and 1.0350, could challenge the recovery moves before giving control to the buyers. Overall, the bears might stay hopeful until the quote stays inside the stated channel’s resistance line, close to 1.0500. On the contrary, the lower line of the stated channel, near the 1.000 psychological magnet, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bears. In a case where the major currency pair stays below the 1.0000 mark, the 100% FE level could act as the last defense for the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag the quote towards the late 2020 bottom surrounding 0.9860. Overall, EURUSD bears have had a long ruling and the odds are against them of late, at least technically. However, the fundamentals suggest further downside of the pair and hence buyers need discretion.
by MTradingGlobal
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NSE:AWLLong
by TRADERS_AREA
1
AUDUSD rebound appears overdue on RBA rate hike dayAUDUSD holds onto its bounce off a downward sloping support line from late January, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-June moves as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) third rate hike. Nearly oversold RSI also hints at the quote’s further recovery, in addition to the hawkish hopes from the Aussie central bank. The upside momentum, however, remains elusive unless crossing the late January swing low surrounding 0.6965-70. Also likely to challenge the pair buyers is the 50-day EMA level of 0.7050 and the 200-day EMA close to 0.7210. In a case where the quote rallied beyond 0.7210, the odds of its run-up beyond June’s top of 0.7282 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the 61.8% FE level, near 0.6770, precedes the aforementioned support line from January, around 0.6750, to limit the short-term downside of the AUDUSD pair. Should the pair stays on the back foot below 0.6750, the March 2020 high near 0.6680 will act as the last defense for the pair buyers, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag the prices towards the April 2020 peak of 0.6569. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to witness a corrective pullback and the RBA’s rate hike could serve the purpose. However, the Fed Minutes and US NFP may keep sellers hopeful and hence the pair buyers need to remain cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF rebounds from key support ahead of Swiss inflationUSDCHF snapped a two-week downtrend while bouncing off 100-DMA and a horizontal area from April 20. The corrective pullback, however, failed to provide a daily closing beyond multiple hurdles surrounding 0.9620. That said, the MACD and the RSI (14) also hint at the pair’s weakness ahead of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Switzerland. It’s worth noting that sellers could witness a pullback on firmer readings but the aforementioned horizontal support and the 100-DMA, respectively near 0.9540 and 0.9520, will be crucial for bearish confirmation. Should the quote drop below 0.9520, the odds of witnessing a slump towards March’s high, also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-May upside, near 0.9460, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, downbeat Swiss data may extend the latest recovery towards breaking the 0.9620 resistance, a break of which could direct the run-up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9700. During the USDCHF advances past 0.9700, the 0.9715-20 area may act as a validation point for the north-run targeting the lows marked during early May and June, close to 0.9860. Overall, USDCHF remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing 0.9620 but the further downside needs validation from 0.9520.
by MTradingGlobal