EURUSD prints the first daily gains in three while approaching the top line of a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. Apart from the 1.0920 upside hurdle comprising the stated resistance line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected rate cut also poses a challenge to the major currency pair’s further upside. Additionally, the sluggish MACD...
The current market cycle looks eerily similar to the 2005 - 2010 era.
Dow started going up after the last rate hike in expectation of a rate cut and eventually peaked around the time the cut started i.e. Sep 2007.
Very similar behaviour is evident in current cycle where market has been rising since the last rate hike. If the Fed cut is expected in June 2024, then...
Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has accumulated 299pts ~ 1.59% points. Most importantly it has broken away from the crucial support of 18880. As it stands Nifty is below the resistance of 19310 - but with the momentum it has gathered, seems like it will get tested this weekly series.
Nifty Today’s Analysis
Recap from...
BankNifty Analysis
I had a bearish view for today, but it played out as a bad day for the bears. The RBI MPC meeting at 10 am did not move the needle that much. Usually, the RBI Governor’s speech drives up the volatility and we have some adverse moves.
There was one strong move of 250pt from 10.50 to 11.20 where we pulled back from 44500 levels. Even then the...
AUDUSD holds lower grounds near 0.6335, close to the yearly low marked last week, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged as expected. It’s worth noting that the RBA Rate Statement appeared a bit dovish and hence allowed the Aussie bears to keep the reins, especially amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Additionally, the bearish MACD...
Although the EURUSD is all set for the first weekly loss in four, despite refreshing the 17-month high, the buyers aren’t off the board as multiple supports stand tall to challenge the downside ahead of the key week comprising monetary policy meeting from the Fed and the ECB. That said, a three-month-old horizontal support area surrounding 1.1100-1090. Following...
AUDUSD prods three-week uptrend after RBA Minutes and PBOC rate cut impresses bearish ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony. Also favoring the odds of a pullback in the Aussie pair is the nearly overbought RSI and concerns about hearing hawkish words from Fed Chair Powell. However, a clear downside break of a three-week-long rising trend channel becomes necessary...
USDCHF eyes another visit to the yearly low, after a two-week downtrend, as it braces for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision, expected 1.75% versus 1.50% prior. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair fades Friday’s bounce off the lowest levels in five weeks by retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May 04-31 upside. Given the...
Be it the triangle breakout or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials’ dovish signals ahead of the monetary policy announcements, not to forget the Fed’s hawkish pause, the USDJPY pair has all that’s needed to ride north. However, the overbought RSI conditions suggest a gradual run-up with intermediate pullbacks. That said, the aforementioned two-week-old symmetrical...
EURUSD defends recovery from 200-EMA, as well as stays above the 50-EMA hurdle, as markets prepare for the ECB. In doing so, the Euro pair lures buyers amid hawkish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB). That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s upside from late November 2022 to May 2023, near 1.0900, appears immediate resistance...
Gold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD...
AUDUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly rebound from the yearly low as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. Although the Aussie central bank is likely to keep the benchmark rates unchanged after a surprise 0.25% rate hike in the last, it can follow the RBNZ’s hawkish action amid recently firmer Australian data and...
After taking out the 1.2580 key resistance, GBPUSD bulls jostle with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March-September 2022 downturn, around 1.2685. That said, the RSI (14) grinds near the overbought territory and the MACD signals are sluggish too, which in turn suggests that the buyers are running out of steam on the Bank of England (BoE) inspired “Super...
EURUSD recently pierced a three-week-old symmetrical triangle as the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision looms. That said, the Fed-inspired run-up impresses the Euro bulls as the pair trades successfully beyond the 200-SMA amid a firmer RSI (14) line and bullish MACD signals. As a result, the quote is well set for rising to the fresh high since late...
NZDUSD extends the early March’s bearish consolidation inside a three-week-old ascending trend channel as RBNZ announces the 11th consecutive rate increase. More importantly, the New Zealand central bank pleases the Kiwi bulls to renew the 7-week top by a surprise 0.50% rate hike versus the 0.25% expected. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions...
NZDUSD dribbles around a seven-week low as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 0.50% rate hike on Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades the previous week’s bounce off 200-DMA amid a nearly oversold RSI (14). That said, bearish MACD signals and an early February reversal from a six-month-old ascending resistance line keep the sellers hopeful of...
Gold extends the early February fall towards two-month-old horizontal support near $1,825-23, despite posting the indecisive closing in the last week. The bearish bias also gains strength from the clear downside break of an ascending trend line from early November and the 50-DMA, as well as the bearish MACD signals. However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) hints at...
EURUSD fades bounce off the 10-week-old ascending support line as the weekly resistance line and the 200-SMA challenge buyers. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14). As a result, the quote is likely to return to the bear’s table after a four-month absence. That said, a downside break of the stated support line,...
