Swing Trading Gem:(ZEEL Set to Soar 10-15 % in a Month or Two*ZEEL is ready to offer returns ranging from 10-15% within a timeframe of one to two months*. Please note that terms and conditions apply.
Reasons to Consider Taking a Trade:
- A crucial Supply/Support zone has been pinpointed within the range of 140-145
- The trendline break.
- Price has surged above the 50 Moving Average, which is now acting as a support level.
Targets:
I think Target 1: Will be achieved in a week or two and then 174 Target 2 will be achieved in a month and if ZEEL Blast then 191 Target 3 in 2 months.
Imp. Note: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a direct recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions, as market conditions and individual circumstances may vary.
Market Risk: However, it's important to acknowledge the inherent risks associated with investing in the stock market, including but not limited to volatility, economic downturns, regulatory changes, and unforeseen events that can impact stock prices. It's crucial for investors to remain vigilant and diversify their portfolios to mitigate potential losses.
Moving Averages
Banknifty around ATH, trading levels for intraday 05/04/24.Banknifty has given a hammer candle around the higher levels after a gap up opening above 48k levels.
The index came for profit booking after a good gap up and closed round 48k levels.
Now the market is around the last resistance zone of 48300 and then there is the ATH.
After a 3 day consolidation there was a gap up and it took the opportunity of making money in the up move.
In case of another gap up, bullish trades on the retest can be made around 48300 levels .
If there is a flat to slight gap down, bullish trades above 48250 can be created.
Major Resistance levels :- 48250, 48530-590
The market has created highs after gap up openings. In the scenario too, it seems market will show some gap up if it wants to create new ATH.
Support levels :- 47700, 47430
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
AMB is poised for a potential bounce from key support levels! 📈💎 Paradisers, #AMB is currently undergoing a retracement, and we anticipate a potential bounce from the previously broken resistance, which can now act as support.
💎This support level is further reinforced by the presence of the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and a supportive trendline, enhancing its bullish prospects.
💎NOTE- Confirmation is needed.
💎However, should the price break below this support level, it may signal a bearish move. In such a scenario, I would recommend exercising caution and considering smaller position sizes, as the overall trend remains bullish at this time.
Falling Knife stocks-How to identify them?I have discussed in previous post about what exactly falling knife stock is with a case study.
The next question would be how would an investor know that stock is a part of falling knife category?
To identify such stocks, I feel you should know about 2 concepts/indicators which are Moving averages and Fibonacci retracement. I will try to make you understand these concepts and also the levels where averaging/investing can be started.
1. Fibonacci(Fib) is a mathematical concept which governs the entire universe, even our stock markets. I can't explain the entire scientific concept here so just sticking to stock market.
Fib retracements help investors identify support and resistance for stock. There are 2 golden ratios which every investor must know, 38.2%(0.382) and 61.8%(0.618).
When a stock is in uptrend, 38.2% is the level where most stocks retrace upto. 61.8% is considered as last ray of hope for bounce in retracement. Any stock which has fallen below 61.8% is considered weak.
2. Moving averages(MA) are indicators which are continuously changing with moving stock market. These are an average of prices over a time period, hence Time frame is important.
There are many types of moving average, we use mostly simple and exponential.
When I say 20 Day EMA, it is Exponential average of 20 days of closing price of stock or when I say 200 week SMA, it is simple average of 200 weeks closing price.
Exponential is more used than Simple moving average which has scientific reason behind it so if you are curious, you can search for it.
200 Week moving average is considered as last ray of hope for investment. A fall below 200 Week moving average or 50 Month EMA indicates strong bearishness.
3. I have seen stocks reach from top to bottom and top again. Tata motors, HDFCAMC being few famous examples. Even, Most of real estate, PSU banks stocks are reversing. So, equity is beautiful, wild and highly unpredictable. However, A stuck investor should wait for monthly closing above 61.8% to start averaging in such stocks. Also, a closing above 200 Week EMA will slightly indicate return of bullishness and that's where reversal traders should think of investing
I feel this much knowledge is enough for now. If you have got some enlightenment from above information, lets apply this knowledge on one stock where I know many many investors are stuck, Rajesh Exports.
How do I know? I saw the shareholding pattern and that's where I was shocked to see the number of shareholders increase from 45000 odd to over 2 lakhs in the past 9 months!
Starting with fundamentals, Rajesh Exports Ltd is 4 decade old manufacturer of Gold and Gold Products available at a PE of around 9 and sales growth of 20% in last 3 years. All the ratios feel nice to me except the operating margin which is below 2% consistently which has led to drop in EPS which is major concern in the stock.
Technically, stock had a 52 week high of 1030 in Feb 2023 and it is now available at 360 odd which is more than 60% wealth destroyed. And as I said, the number of shareholders have grown 5x in the same time. (Note that FII, DII holding has reduced in same period).
If i see now from a non-investors perspective(psychology explains that investor can never see the bearishness), the stock has formed a beautiful double top and broken its neckline which was 61.8% of fib retracement all ready for a further fall and I see no support till 270-300 zone(sorry investors). It is also below 200 week moving average-red wavy line(if you check monthly chart, it is below 200 month moving average as well). A perfect example of Falling knife.
What next? If I were an investor, My last SL would have been 525 which is 50% retracement. Since, the stock is below 61.8% retracement , there is no chance of averaging at this moment. Hence, I feel investors should wait & watch until stock moves above 440 before averaging/entering. Don't jump in it. Wait for a big bullish monthly candle before averaging.
Also....
As promised,, I am sharing you names of stock which i have identified to be part of this unloved category. As an homework, do check fundamentals and reversal levels based on what we have discussed above.
The stocks are GRINFRA, TCNSClothing, Metropolis, Luxindustries, Polyplex, HLEGlasscoat, Deltacorp, Barbequenation.
If you are a curious investor, even you can find such stocks and do let me know in the comments below.
I would like to discuss any doubts regarding the concepts, idea or anything related to stock market so feel free to comment.
Keep investing, keep minting. India has a very big future ahead so these are the best few years to invest in India.Be a smart investor because it is important that you choose the right stock to meet your financial goals.
"Long Rajesh Exports"As we can see from the pattern the stock has shown a nice reversal today showing that the buyers are still active in this and it can get even more bullish above 315
and also fundamentally if we see the company has much higher production than the entire consumption of India and it is an export based company which is helping India to grow so we can keep this for long term for better growth
#swingtrading
Crude Oil Analysis - Triangle Breakout 📊 Technical Analysis:
- Triangle breakout with minor consolidation
- MA supporting the bullish trend
📈 Trade Setup:
- Long position initiated at breakout
- Trade with Stop-loss
🚨 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult with a financial advisor.
GBPINR Analysis GBPINR Currency Analysis
The chart is self-explanatory and shared for educational purposes.
📉 Support Level: The price has recently been tested and held a key support level within the channel.
📈 Moving Average: The price is above the moving average (50-150-200-day MA), indicating bullish momentum.
📊 Trade Idea: Consider long positions near the support level, Set a tight stop-loss below the support.
🚫 Risk Management: Always manage risk by adjusting position size and using appropriate stop-loss levels.
Banknifty intraday levels for monthly expiry 27/03/24.For last few trading sessions, market is volatile and is taking the stop losses.
Today also the market remained in a range and closed below the daily 20 ema. There is a rejection from the levels and an inverted hammer is formed on the daily charts.
If there is a gap up to flat opening and market starts trading below today's low, it can test the lower support levels.
Fibonacci levels are also retested on the bearish front. Now market has to decide which trend to follow as it has been creating confusion.
Major support levels :- 46400, 46150
Resistance levels :- 46750, 46940
Tomorrow is the montly expiry for banknifty. It has been consolidating in a range for last 3 trading session and there is a possibility of it showing some trending move.
Wait for the pirce action near the levels before entering the market.
A 50-day moving average (50 DMA/SMA/EMA)A 50-day moving average (50 DMA) is a technical indicator that shows the average closing price of a security over the last 50 days. It's a popular indicator because it's realistic and effective at showing historical price movement trends.
Concept of 50 Moving Average
1. Entry
- Candle crossover 50 MA: This refers to a situation where the closing price of a candle crosses above the
50-period moving average line. When the candle's closing price moves from below the 50 MA to above it,
it indicates potential upward momentum in the price action. This could signal a bullish trend or a potential
buying opportunity.
2. Exit:
- Distance between 50 MA and Candle: This involves monitoring the distance between the closing price
of the candle and the 50-period moving average. If the distance becomes significantly large, it may indicate
an overextended market and a potential reversal. Traders might consider taking profits or preparing for a reversal
signal.
- Candle crossunder 50 MA: This occurs when the closing price of a candle crosses below the 50-period
moving average line. It suggests potential downward momentum in the price action. This could signal a bearish trend
or a potential selling opportunity.
3. No Trade Zone (Sideways):
- Use Box Breakout Strategy: In a sideways or ranging market where the price moves within a defined range,
a breakout strategy can be employed. A box breakout strategy involves identifying a range-bound market where the
price oscillates between a support and resistance level (forming a box-like pattern). Traders look for breakouts
above the resistance or below the support level to initiate trades. This helps avoid trading during periods of low
volatility and indecision, typical of sideways markets, and instead focuses on capturing potential momentum during
breakout movements.
HDFC BANK in strong Demand - Institutional Buying ZoneFundamentals : Very Strong, Consistent growth on Sales, Profits and EPS. Very strong Quarter. FII and DII stake increasing!
Technicals : Discounted, at Trendline support.. Good RR, near Pre Covid levels!
R 1: 1510
R 2: 1600
R 3: 1720++
Support Zone : 1280-1350
📌 Watch for $FET's liquidity absorption💎 FET appears poised to absorb internal liquidity, as indicated by the formation of a pin bar candle, reminiscent of previous instances.
💎If FETUSDT demonstrates CHoCH behavior from the bullish Order Block (OB), it suggests that internal liquidity has been absorbed, potentially paving the way for a renewed bullish trajectory.
💎However, a breakdown below the bullish OB would signify a bearish market structure. Nonetheless, given a bullish long-term outlook on FET, I will monitor for more favorable price action, particularly towards the bullish side, noting the presence of a small demand area below.
Nifty weekly analysis for 18/03/24.
Nifty has given a 2% fall in a week and closed above 22k levels after testing 21900 levels.
It consolidated around the higher level and gave a fall, there is a probability of it continuing the fall.
If there is a gap down opening and a retest of the current support level of 21900, a bearish trade can be initiated after a negative price action around it.
In case of a gap up, wait for a W pattern formation and enter only when the neck line is crossed and sustained.
For last 2 trading session, nifty is forming an inside candle and is consolidating. The break out/down can give good movement.
Major support levels :- 21900, 21780, 21580
Nifty is trading below the 20 ema (daily) and is sustaing below it. The consolidation range is between the horizontal support and 20 ema as a resistance.
There is a break down of a trendline and the retest is also done in nifty which adds on for a confirmation on the bearish side.
Resistance levels :- 22100, 22190
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Banknifty weekly analysis for 18/038/24.
A big red candle on the weekly charts after 4 consecutive green candle is either profit booking or a double top formation confirmation.
Banknifty has come for selling but the downside movement is slow which shows there are still buying happening in the market. There is doji formation on the daily charts and a significant selling is not there in the index as compare to nifty.
It is respecting a trendline and has continously tested it. If markets breaches the levels and starts trading below the levels, a bearish move can be seen in the market upto the lower support levels.
Major support levels :- 46300, 45940, 45750
The chances are high of market giving another red candle on the weekly charts. Wait for banknifty to start trading below the trendline.
If there is a gap up opening and a higher high formation, let market confirm the bullish trend on hourly charts. For confirmation look for a price action.
Major resistance levels :- 46680, 46950
Though, markets are unpredictable and is in a bearish trend, watch for it to cross and sustain 47200 levls to turn bullish. Else a day or two can be avoided for trading.
Wait for the price action near the level before entering the markets.
HDFCLIFE 21/50 EMA Cross [DAILY]HDFCLIFE gave a small base BO on daily time frame and now today we can observe a 21/50 EMA cross as well.
Another thing in support of this scrip is that its RS score in 750 stock universe has been rising week over week for the past 4 weeks. Data is as follows :
23rd Feb - 10
1st Mar - 14
7th Mar - 26
15th Mar - 33
Only con here that i can think of is that there is supply overheard in the chart and the RS score even though on a rising slope is pretty weak when considered overall. There might be better opportunities that we can look into.
Nifty intraday levels for weekly expiry 14/03/24.
Nifty has given a break down of the parallel channel and has closed below the 22k levels after a gap up opening.
Even 20 ema, on the daily chart, is breached and closing is much below it.
Today, not the index even the stock has given bearish move. There were chance of a retest but from the morning nifty was in a bearish mood.
It can given another red candle as there is a bearish divergence in RSI and volume are high.
Either it will retest the break down channel or consolidate after a gap up or flat opening.
Major support levels :- 21920, 21770, 21580
If there is a gap down opening, there can be another selling leg from the morning.
Resistance levels :- 22110, 22250
Tomorrow is weekly expiry for nifty and can be another trending day for it.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.