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Morning Mantra - 10th August 2023Dear All, So finally we have observed the impact of witnessing a closing of above 19550 for 2 consecutive days, just as it was stated. As after those 2 days, Nifty has ultimately given us a positive closing of approx 19632.55 yesterday. Altogether, the Market is currently in a very choppy mode. Where we can clearly observe the stock specific momentum, which is also due to the ongoing Result season. So, as per the current scenario, we have to keep a track on the important levels of 19300-19550-19800. Where, since Nifty is currently trading above the level of 19550, so we can expect it to move towards the level 19800 with the support of 19550 on closing basis. On the other hand, a closing below 19550, will activate the level of 19300 once again. Therefore, in the meanwhile, be stock specific and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy. Keep Trading! Keep Investing! Regards , Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
09 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Analysis Blown to Pieces Today🧨Yesterday we went with a 60% Neutral and 40% bearish stance for today. What happened from open till 13.15 - was in perfect harmony & as per the script. But the intraday rally of 177pts ~ 0.91% was totally shocking! I was unprepared, unplanned and must say ran into losses today because of my bias. I should say with 100% honesty - my research failed me today. I had gone short once we broke the 19500 level - the rationale being Nifty is staying below the descending trend line. The short position held above water till the 19470 levels from where the reversals started hurting. Above 19590 even my neutral bias was taken for a ride. On the losses part - I dont feel that bad, because I have seen RED MTM before. But its been a while since my homework has proven me dead wrong. Even now I am not entirely sure why we rallied like that, was it due to the RBI interest rate decision planned for tomorrow? (we will discuss in detail in the banknifty analysis section). The 14.15 hourly candle that added 111pts ~ 0.57% has changed the game for Nifty. It ensured the final close is above the bearish trend line. The options premium of both PE and CE were abnormally low in spite of strong swing. This also limited my fire-fighting capabilities. For tomorrow I wish to stay neutral to start with, go long if 19700 levels are taken out and go short if we fall to 19550 levels.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1
Nifty Trade Setup for 09-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows Expectations: Rangebound/Sideways day. #Support: 19550 Sell below: 19550 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone. Target 1: 19510 Target 2: 19460 #Resistance: 19590 Buy Above: 19590 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level agressive buy above supply zone. Target 1: 19640 Target 2: 19680 #Demand Zone: 19530-19550 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart. #Supply Zone: 19630-19600 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart. #Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
FASP levels for Nifty 08/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 08-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 60% neutral 40% bearishNifty made an interesting opening 2 hour price action today. With a good gap up opening and then a strong rejection at 19640 levels to hit an intraday low of 19533 by 11.35. The selling pressure was strong, but the financial sector did not lend support. NiftyIT was falling - but that got arrested and hence the reversal post 11.35. Currently we have a situation where Nifty50 did not break through the descending trend line. I had revised my bias from neutral to bullish yesterday with the assumption that we will have a breakout today. Instead what has formed currently is more or less like a bearish trend continuation pattern if Nifty does not cut through 19680 by tomorrow. My personal conviction is 60% neutral and 40% bearish tomorrow. Few sectors like Nifty Metal, Nifty Energy, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Commodities, Nifty Auto, Nifty Consumption were in red today which is building a case for a bearish event. Guess it's safe to monitor the trades tomorrow and update if we have a change in stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty TradeSetup For 08-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 08-08-2023 #Support: 19570 Short if candle closes below 19570 #resistance: 19620 Long if candle closes above 19620 #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19530 Target 2= 19460 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19680 Target 2= 19735 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 8th August 2023Dear All, Yesterday we had got to witness a gap up opening with ultimately a flat closing , in Nifty. Also, just as we had stated yesterday itself about the need to witness a closing of above 19550 for about 2 consecutive days in order to witness a new positive momentum. Similarly, on the positive note we had fortunately witnessed a closing of above 19550 yesterday. So, accordingly today as well, we would require a closing of above 19550 in Nifty. Where in the meanwhile, on the upper side 19800 will be a strong resistance level with the support of 19300 once again. Furthermore, the Market will now have to decide its final direction. Until then, it is better to be stock specific as the Result season is still going on. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
07 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Stance changed to bullish 🐂🐂🐂On Friday 4th Aug Nifty made a gap up opening and created an island day. We had changed the stance from bearish to neutral. And today nifty managed to build-up momentum on top of what happened on Friday, to me - that’s bullish. After opening gap, nifty managed to stay above the 19530 level quite strongly. At 09.30 nifty made the low of 19524 and then went back to 19585 level. Imagine the bears could not even push Nifty to the prior day's close values. This was even after not getting real support from banknifty. From 10.50 to 12.25 Nifty stayed range bound and was not indicating a real directional move as the options data was suggesting low volatility in spite of India VIX shooting 5%. But Nifty managed to get a rally going and by 13.40 we hit the high of the day ~ 19620. Once it broke past the 19600 level - I had to change the stance from neutral to bullish. The major strength for Nifty was the NiftyIT & NiftyPharma sectors. On the 1hr TF Nifty has managed to reach the bearish trend line, and many may think that my stance change is too early. What I personally feel is, its better to play the long side right now and reverse the stance if we have a rejection from the descending trend line.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
Nifty trade Setup for 07-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 07-07-2023 #Support: 19485 Short if candle closes below 19485 #resistance: 19550 Long if candle closes above 19550 #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19440 Target 2= 19380 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19660 Target 2= 19730 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 7th of August 2023Dear All, The previous week was in a way quite terrific for us, as Nifty had somehow touched all of its important levels in a week itself, i.e. from 19800-19550-19300 approx. Now, as per the current situation, Nifty has somehow taken a beautiful support at our earlier stated support level of 19300. Which is why, we are still quite optimistic for the psychological figure of 20000 once again, in the upcoming days, with a major resistance of 19800 as of now. Furthermore, before 19800, we have to wait for the level of 19550 on closing basis, for at least 2 consecutive days, in order to get a clear cut indication regarding a further upside. Meanwhile, we have to stay a little cautious with the stop loss of 19300 in the upcoming days. Overall, it is better to be stock specific and to keep rebalancing your portfolio for now, since the Result Season is going on. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
04 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Honeymoon over for the bears?For 2 consecutive days the bears had a good time and now it is over! Today’s price action and the inability of the sellers to push down the prices indicate the bulls are gaining traction. Most analysts would prefer to watch for 1 to 2 more days before changing the bearish bias - I would prefer to change my bias from bearish to neutral right away. In the recent past too, the dips have been very shallow and short lived. Today we had a gap up opening followed by a ZERO attempt to close the gap. The island formation (encircled in blue) shows how high the grapes have been held high for the BEARS (The taste is sour if you were a short seller). All hope is not lost, not until the trend line is taken out. That is why it is not advised to go long nor go short. I would prefer to trade with a neutral stance till we get more clarity. Everytime Nifty hits a new ATH, I think the reversal is overdue and will come shortly. But the fall never came, everytime there is a minor correction - the dip buyers come in and rally the markets above the ATHs. Just like me there would be many bears who are eating dust waiting for a crash!
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis | BearishNifty Weekly Analysis We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks. Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US markets went up due to the FOMO in Artificial Intelligence stocks should in no way influence Indian stock markets, but it did. At present in the listed space - there are no real big AI names here, yet almost all the sectors participated in a long-only rally with no healthy pullbacks. Nifty Daily Analysis I am so much relieved today not just because yesterday’s short call worked, but for the first time in many sessions we had Nifty following price action towards downside. Every other instance the dip buyer would come in at 2.30pm and close Nifty higher - negating any selling pressure. The manner in which we broke the 19400 level was impressive, the selling momentum ensured we went down till 19296 before bouncing back. The high to low fall was 239pts ~ 1.23% and the pullback was 101pts ~ 0.53%. From a technical analysis standpoint, nifty respecting the downward trend price action will give so much of an encouragement to the bears. These bears were beaten to pulp in the last 4 months - so it is the right time for payback! As long as the trend line is getting respected and the EMAs are not crossing over - we remain bearish. The momentum should pick up once the 19200 level is getting broken as there is unfinished business.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
2
Morning Mantra - 4th August 2023Dear All, Yesterday we had seen the effect of the crucial support level of 19550. Where below this level, Nifty took a sharp dip towards our previous support level of 19300, and from 19300 we had also observe a sharp recovery of around 100 points in Nifty, yesterday itself. Finally yesterday we did somehow witness a major impact of the shooting star formation, which was observed on a weekly chart of Nifty. So, with Nifty’s pull back around our support level, the range of 19550-19300 now becomes activated. Therefore, be cautious today and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy , for now. Moreover, if you had already been Rebalancing your Portfolio, then this is an ideal time to infuse back the capital, little by little. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
02 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Start of a new TREND 🐻Maybe it was the news that Fitch cut the US rating from AAA to AA+ that sparked the reversals in Asian markets. Our market too started to fall but had a decent recovery in the last 1 hr (just as usual). The global markets were staying at elevated levels for quite some time now. Our market is at the APEX with the outperformance unchecked. Even with such a strong news flow - the downward impact was not that much, but we did take out some important levels which shows the down-ward rally may be just starting. Nifty opened gap down and then fell till 11.35 with no signs of slowing down or pull back. We lost 218pts ~ 1.1% in the process which I think is the greatest loss in a 2hr window in recent times. From 11.35 to 12.45 we traded sideways before the 2nd leg of fall started, we fell 132pts ~ 0.68% in leg2 And just as usual we had a dip-buying or maybe a profit taking from the shorts in the last 1hr, where we recovered 90pts ~ 0.47%. The total fall was just 1.05% ~ 207pts which is in no measure a major impact. In yesterday's report we mentioned a bias shift to neutral from bullish. When the main support level got taken out, it made sense to go short. And then in round2 the next pivot level was taken out which prompted another round of selling. The failure to take out the 19400 level and a 90pts pullback did take out some confidence of mine. India VIX although went up 10% today, staying at 11% does not show any fear. For mass participation we need a strong rising VIX above 16 within the next week. Nifty has made a triple top on a descending channel - till the channel holds the bias is now changed to bearish!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
FASP levels for Nifty 04/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 04-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:NIFTY
by SathishChandrasekaran
3
Nifty Expiry TradeSetup for 03-08-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 03-07-2023 #Support: 19430. Short if candle closes below 19480 for scalping with strict trailing SL. Major support is placed at 19430. #resistance: 19540 Long if candle closes above 19540. #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19360 Target 2= 19300 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19640 Target 2= 19730 Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital. Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset