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Niftyoutlook

07 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty - time for shortsNifty hits an all time high of 19523.6 at 10.00 today, this was after we opened gap down and then had a series of powerful green candles. The surge that took N50 higher was so special that if you looked at 10.00 AM you would never have thought of going short. Opening gap down was due to the handout from the global markets & it was expected. but the 102pts rally to the ATH was unusual. I am quite sure the last of the bears would have exited the marketplace seeing the strength. Now when we look back, it seems like a classic pump and dump scheme! Trades Taken As soon as the N50 broke today's low 10.45, I took a bearish credit spread i.e sell 19500 CE at 62.25 and buy 19600 CE at 32.85. The max profit on this trade is Rs1470, max loss is Rs3530 and Break even = 19529.4. The risk:reward = 2.4. This is taken for the current weekly expiry and since its a credit strategy, the time decay will help it. If the market stays as it is or continues to go down the position will remain profitable. If the market scales back up to 19500 levels quickly, my position will start bleeding & I would have to start running for cover. 1hr TF The indicator gave a sell signal by 12.15 only on the 1hr chart. Since the intraday is viewed at a lower time frame of 15mts & 5mts - the trade was taken early. N50 is currently at the 3rd July close levels wherein there was a top like formation. If we continue to fall from here then the trades between 03 Jul to 07 Jul will look like a blip on a longer time frame. Having said that 19330 will form the first support/resistance zone (although not strong).
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Nifty Trade Setup for 07-07-2023Nifty Important intraday levels to watch for 07-07-2023 #Support: 19440 Short if candle closes below 19440 #resistance: 19510 Long if candle closes above 19510. #Targets on downside after break of support. Target 1= 19380 Target 2= 19345 #Targets on upside after break of resistance. Target 1= 19560 Target 2 = 19630 Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestyourAsset
Morning Mantra - 7th July 2023Dear All, So yesterday, we had witnessed a very beautiful momentum in Nifty. Where even after back to back 2 Doji formations, instead of showing a Reversal, Nifty fortunately took it positively and gave us an all time high closing of 19497.30 So, as per Technical Analysis, Market sentiments still seems to be positive, as of now. However, if in case Nifty takes any pull back towards the level of 19200, then that can be taken as an opportunity for Cherry picking with the stop loss of 18700, for the upcoming days. Furthermore, since today is the last trading day of this wonderful week, therefore we need to be a little cautious here. In the meanwhile, keep rebalancing your portfolio, as this is the only way to keep your portfolio healthy, as of now. Keep Trading! Keep Investing! Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
06 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty I became a believer today, amazing outperformance by our stock market indices, Nifty50 hits a new all time high of 19512.2 (conquering the 19500 level for the first time). At 19350 levels I had an interim top call & the market has proven me wrong (yet again). Today's super surge is nothing short of extra ordinary, the global cues were pretty negative after US FED indicated further rate hike possibilities. As I write this report, SPX is down 1.3%. Still our Nifty50 propelled to new highs. The breakouts are not stopping, the bulls have chased away the bears yet again.  --- Weekly Analysis Nifty50 Between last expiry Jun 28th & today, Nifty50 has gained 2.57% ~ 488pts. The neatest ~ 500pts rally I have seen in a while. This is absolutely due to the breakout we had from the 18880 levels! Today's Analysis We had an intraday rally from LOD to HOD of 138pts ~ 0.72%. The leg1 of spike was from open to 11.35 where we gained 0.51% and then leg 2 was short & crisp 14.05 to 15.10 with gains of 0.37%. The closing 1hr yet again proving to be pivotal w.r.t movements. The daily candle on N50 looks even more exciting with 6 strong green candles out of the last 8 working days. Who is going to tame the bull now?
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty daily analysis for 07/07/23.Nifty on the daily time frame has given a nice move and closed around the round number figure of 19500. The market gave a nice move in the first hour and consolidated whole in a range. During the last hour too the market gave a break out and gave a fifty points. Market is moving in a good bullish cycle of consolidation and breakout. On 15 minute time frame, nifty is taking support from the 20 ema. Being the expiry, the last hour move gave nice profits to the option buyer . Support :- 19460, 19410 No serious resistance is there on the upper side as market is making new ATH and the supports are near by. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Morning Mantra - 6th July 2023Dear All, Once again we can see a Doji formation on the Day chart of Nifty. So, yes it is a significant indication that Nifty can take a pause from this rally. But we are still with our words that the overall market sentiments seems to be positive with the stop loss of 19200 as of now. Furthermore, every pull back can be a good opportunity for Cherry Picking along with the stop loss of 18700. Last but not the least, Today is an important day , since it is a day of Weekly Settlement. Therefore be cautious , be stock specific and keep rebalancing your portfolio as of now. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
05 Jul '23 Post Mortem on NiftyI had a feeling that we are nearing a top after seeing the price action on 03 Jul. The 4th Jul session was also cementing that thought. And today's session till 14.35 was giving me lot of confidence to take a short position. But what happened from 14.40 to close, esp. 15.500 to 15.10 was simply unbelievable. Nifty rose 0.42% ~ 81.3pts to end the day flat at 0.05% gains. The strength in that recovery is now putting a big question mark on my interim top call. Although we did not take out the ATH today  - that momentum would have crushed the hopes of many bears. Last day we discussed how we require strong CE shorting to start a downward slide, unfortunately that was not visible today.  1hr TF Ever since we had that breakout from the 18880 levels, N50 has appreciated another 3% ~ 569pts. Either the rally is over extending or the bullish sentiment is so strong to wipe out the bears. It is quite easy for N50 to scale up as there are no more friction points, similarly its much easier to breakdown as we dont have support points too. The last 30mts of today's trade has given confusing signals now. I have marked a trading band between 19304 to 19415 (length of the 1st hour candle on 04 Jul). Till this band is not broken - I have decided not to take any bets.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Nifty daily analysis for 06/07/23.Nifty on the daily time frame has formed an inside candle and formed another doji. The market opened flat and closed near to the opening price. The market has consolidated whole day and remained in a range of 100 points. On the hourly charts, the market remained inside the first hour candle and during the closing hour gave a 50 points move. Even on the smaller time frame, the market traded around the 20 ema and closed just above it. Support :- 19330, 19260 Resistance :- 19410 The market is consolidating and has remaine in a range for 2 trading days. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Morning Mantra - 5th July 2023Dear All, We can now observe a Doji formation on the chart of Nifty here at upper level. Which can give a pause to this rally as of now. So in such a situation, we might get to witness some pull back in Nifty. But again the overall market sentiments is quite positive. Where the support levels of 18700 and 19200 will be very crucial for us. In the meanwhile, keep following the Cherry picking strategy and keep Rebalancing your Portfolio with the stated support levels, as of now. As Nifty is in an open territory, which indicates that anything can happen in the Market as of now. So don’t Miss the rally and be cautious along with being stock specific. Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTY
by alokdaiya
Nifty daily analysis for 05/07/23.Another fap up day in nifty. Today market on remained volatile and has formed a dragon fly doji. The market has closed gaining 66 points and has consolidated whole day, closing near the opening price. On the hourly charts, market remained in the first hour candle and gap filling trade was there in the first hour. Nifty has been respecting the 20 EMA, on 15 minutes chart, and has closed around the levels. The market has given nice up side movement and a healthy retracement is pending. Support :- 19330, 19250 Resistance :- 19410 Nifty is volatile now and is holding on the higher levels. If the market comes for retracement, intraday sell opportunity can be taken with small target. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Morning Mantra - 4th July 2023Dear All, As per the chart of Nifty, the Index is currently trading in an open territory. Where it had also made a New High of 19345, yesterday, along with a closing at the upper level. So, as of now, considering these factors, specially the fact that Nifty is trading in its all new horizon now, we are still our words to remain cautious here, with the following Cherry picking strategy and Portfolio Rebalancing, with the support of 18700. Moreover, the way Nifty has been performing since the last 4 days, signifies that we should enjoy the Waves, but we should also be cautious in the time of High tide or low tide. Since this is the situation of High Tide, therefore it is better to be careful as of now. Happy Trading! Happy Investing! Regards, Alok Daiya SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NSE:NIFTYLong
by alokdaiya
03 Jul '23 Post Mortem on NiftyAnother island formation by N50, gap up opening of 68+ points and then a rising with strong momentum. I was eagerly waiting for a pullback to take some contra positions. Although we had a small retracement from 10.30 to 11.20 approx 78pts - there was no follow-through. So the only viable option trade was selling the PUTS. This is the 4th consecutive day where N50 is jumping gaps & never closing them intraday - pure island formations. Usually when we have multi year breakouts & sentiment shifts we get to see consecutive breakaway gaps. India VIX had an intraday LOD to HOD swing range of 11.4%, it was hovering between 8 to 9% higher than the previous working day. Quite unusual to have high VIX when the markets are powering through nil resistances. I may be the only analyst who feels an interim top is getting formed at the current levels give or take 50–80pts. The rationale being, we have run out of gas. If the momentum has to continue - it has to come from NiftyIT and it has to come fast. We cannot stay at these levels without pure momentum, otherwise the bears will start their game! 1hr TF The island formations in blue color. The area that I personally feel may be an interim top 19334. Again I am okay to be proven wrong if we have further island formations! Even though I might feel a top is getting formed, I have not taken any bearish bets nor should you! As an option trader it is best to react to the market once it makes its move rather than predicting it.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Nifty daily analysis for 04/07/23.For the last 4 trading session, market has been giving gap up and showing positive momentum. On the daily charts, market again has given 130 points move. The market remained in the first hour candle and gave close near the day high. There are less opportunity for intraday traders as the gap up take away the move. The time is for the positional and swing traders. On 15 minutes chart, nifty took support from the 20 ema and formed a box consolidation. Support :- 19260, 19000 Resistance :- 19340 Market are moving in the first half and is consolidating in the last. Small target should be taken as big move are difficult after a gap up. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum