Caution Ahead: Nifty Faces Bearish SignalsBearish Signals on NSE:NIFTY : Technical Analysis Points to Potential Downtrend Ahead
As the markets navigate through a sea of uncertainties, the NSE:NIFTY , a key benchmark index, is currently showing signs of a potential downturn. Traders and investors alike are closely monitoring the technical indicators, which are flashing bearish signals that may indicate a shift in market sentiment.
Niftyshort
NIFTY SHORTNifty is currently forming the 5th wave of Supercycle degree, and there's an anticipation of a 5th wave failure. This is expected to mark the conclusion of the rally that began on March 23, 2020. Following this, a decline is anticipated, targeting the range of 15,000 to correct the entire impulsive move.
Nifty weekly analysis for 30/10/23.Nifty has given a green candle after a fall of more than 3% in the week.
It is given a retracement after the fall and the fall may continue as global sentiment are also showing negativity.
Moving averages are also showing bearishness as nifty has closed below Weekly 20 ema but took support from daily 200 ema. If the daily level is broken, selling may continue.
The market has recover 1% in the last trading session and closed above 19k levels.
In the hourly charts, there was a resistance from 20 ema and entire day it couldn't close above the level.
Support :- 18870, 18720, 18650
Resistance :- 19080, 19250, 19420
The markets are unpredictable, there are chances of showing some retracement continuation and testing 19250 levels or open gap down and giving another selling leg.
Wait for the setup and price levels. Option buyer can take a overnight bearish trade if there is a selling tomorrow.
Nifty Trading Plan For Monday 18 Sept Nifty Demand and supply zones are Price levels on the Chart where the Buying and selling Pressures are Expected to be Strong
Nifty Support
Nifty Support 1 - 20125
Nifty Support 2 - 20035
Nifty Support 3 - 19960
Nifty Support 4 - 19925
Nifty Resistance
Nifty Resistance 1 - 20200
Nifty Resistance 2 - 20240
Nifty Resistance 3 - 20340
Nifty Trend Signal From Nifty Next Week Open Interest Analysis
PCR ratio as per Option Chain Analysis - 0.99 ( Bullish)
Max Pain As per Option Chain Analysis - 19300
Major Resistance as Per Nifty Open Interest Analysis - 20000
Major Support as Per Nifty Open Interest Analysis - 20200
Long Opportunity in Nifty for Trading
On Friday Nifty took resistance of 20200 and it is the target we gave in the first week
Next week Buying opportunity will be near supports 20125, 19960, and 19930, and if the Nifty Open Gap up then the Buying opportunity will be above 20240
Nifty Short opportunity
As nifty breaks short-term downtrend, If Nifty does Not break 19860 then only short nifty with small stop loss and small targets on Downside
Resistance - 20240, 20300
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Big Bears to start Party soon Nifty almost completed double correction at 19991.
Very few will agree with the count but this is what I am expecting now.
Nifty should start travelling towards south anytime soon.
This time it will start a big bear cycle which is likely to continue for next 1 year (atleast).
No overnight longs with index is suggested.
Will update if this wave counting gets invalidated.
Let the bear party begins.
All the best.
Nifty 50 Analysis (One Week Outlook)📈 N ifty 50 Analysis (One Week Outlook) 📈
🔍 Observations:
Chinese Economy Woes: The real estate sector in China is under stress, with it constituting 25% of the country's economy. This raises concerns.
US Dollar Strength: There are indications of potential rate hikes which could bolster the USD. If this happens, we might see a capital flight from the Indian market.
📊 Nifty's Current Status:
Nifty closed at a pivotal level of 19,310.15 on the last trading day.
This level coincides with its 50-day moving average. A downward breach might indicate a short-term fall.
📉 Resistance and Potential Drop:
Nifty has descended from a Fibonacci level of 0.25. If it breaks below the 50-day moving average, it might fall towards the 0.382 Fibonacci level, translating to 18,270.
The projected moving average is 18,314, suggesting a potential fall of 7.69%.
Historical trends, from Dec 2022 to 27th March 2023, indicate possibilities of a drop as steep as 10.25%.
🌎 Global Factors:
Global cues, especially the state of the Chinese economy, will play a pivotal role in influencing the Nifty.
Notable events to watch: The Global Symposium and listings like Jio and some other IPOs.
💡 Short-term Prediction:
If Nifty breaches its 50-day moving average, the next target could be set at 18,270.
❌ Stop Loss: We're not setting a stop loss as we are trend following closely.
✅ Conclusion: Keep a keen eye on global events and the state of the Chinese economy. The next week will be crucial for traders and investors alike. Stay vigilant and trade smartly!
📅 Publish Date: 21st August 2023, 6:57 a.m. IST
Nifty may decline below 19254 from 19484 to 19556 rangeNifty forming Triple zigzag correction pattern from 19254 and it seems currently it is trading in final abc where wave a is completed and wave b is completed or will complete around 19420 then final bounce of wave c above 19484.......from 19484-19556 range big decline is possible. One can plan stop loss above 19556.
14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | CPI comes at 7.44% RBI missed?After the trades on Friday, I modified my stance to 100% bearish. What other boon could I ask for when we had the opening 5mts better than expected? “The first target to take out will be the recent swing low of 19296. The next support comes at 19190.’ As soon as 19300 was taken out in the 2nd candle, my conviction for a bear rally was growing.
But that did not last long enough, the bears were unable to push down the prices further and this hesitation gave the confidence for bulls to make their move. There were 2 news/events that should have tipped the scale to the bear’s favor
Deloitte quitting Adani’s audits
Net Interest margin could take a hit, HDFC bank
The first news was speculative, it does not give any indication of the health of Adani’s finances (atleast for the general public). Auditors could resign for a number of reasons. Whereas the second news was more authoritative as it came from the CEO himself. The final impact ADANIENT down -3.29% and HDFCBK down -0.49% (not at all a big impact).
The bulk of the recovery was by RELIANCE, INFY and HUL and I am quite sure 99% of the traders would not have guessed Nifty will close in the green today. I had sights on 19500 CE at Rs19 levels which ended at Rs40 today. If I had any clue of the power of bulls, I would have grabbed on to this opportunity!
At the end of the day, what got formed is a classic double bottom at the support level of 19311 and a descending bearish trend line. If it goes like this - it becomes a falling wedge pattern which is not at all good for the bears.
Having said that, there is one piece of comforting news for the bears. The retail CPI inflation comes in at 7.44% a 15 month high. Guessing RBI made a big mistake of not hiking the interest rate last thursday.
I continue to remain bearish as of now, if the support level is getting broken in the next session - it's an advantage. If not the wedge (triangle) will catch up and it could even mean a reversal of trends.
Nifty Trade 14-08-2023This is for awareness purpose, do not take this as an investment advice.
Guys! mark these levels and trade these levels. Nifty is forming a Head and Shoulder pattern. Let's wait for a day or two for confirmation. If confirmed, it can touch the 18640 level which is a crucial support. If breaks this level it can go up to the 18000 level.
Let us connect and discuss more possibilities on day to day basis.
03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis | BearishNifty Weekly Analysis
We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks.
Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US markets went up due to the FOMO in Artificial Intelligence stocks should in no way influence Indian stock markets, but it did. At present in the listed space - there are no real big AI names here, yet almost all the sectors participated in a long-only rally with no healthy pullbacks.
Nifty Daily Analysis
I am so much relieved today not just because yesterday’s short call worked, but for the first time in many sessions we had Nifty following price action towards downside. Every other instance the dip buyer would come in at 2.30pm and close Nifty higher - negating any selling pressure.
The manner in which we broke the 19400 level was impressive, the selling momentum ensured we went down till 19296 before bouncing back. The high to low fall was 239pts ~ 1.23% and the pullback was 101pts ~ 0.53%.
From a technical analysis standpoint, nifty respecting the downward trend price action will give so much of an encouragement to the bears. These bears were beaten to pulp in the last 4 months - so it is the right time for payback!
As long as the trend line is getting respected and the EMAs are not crossing over - we remain bearish. The momentum should pick up once the 19200 level is getting broken as there is unfinished business.
Nifty will break rising channel or support from the channel ?Hope all are doing great.
Here’s my 1D timeframe analysis. As we can see in the chart from 18-Nov-2022 to 5-Apr-2023 around 138 days there was a good falling channel pattern. It broke and achieved 3 times the target.
The next 138 days from the previous breakout is forming beautiful rising channel pattern. As per the pattern nature it might break below to the given support level 19118. Expecting to touch that support level on or before 22-Aug-2023.
I also shared similar analysis for banknifty giving reference below.
Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money.
Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
01 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - better to stay neutral ✌️I had a long bias on Nifty from yesterday, the gap up was expected but the fall from 10.10 to 10.45 looked quite surprising to me. NiftyIT was supporting, the earlier fall came mostly from the FinNifty components - its understandable as its expiry.
The much awaited levels to watch out for were 19700 to 19680 where nifty had spent some time yesterday as well as on 27th Jul. The below chart will show the relevance of 19700 levels a break would have ensured in a bias shift from long to neutral.
The 60pts ~ 0.31% rally that followed till 13.30 gave hopes to the bulls. But for any bullish activity we need some strong action tomorrow, the volume + price action in RELIANCE in the closing minutes did not favorable, so before fresh longs we will monitor the price action during the opening 1hr tomorrow. Till then its better that we stay neutral.
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Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with the levels I am watching for tomorrow !
Nifty trade plan for 28-07-20234 days of struggle & yesterdays downside rally, only shows price is finally getting into retracement
until yesterday was expecting price to touch again the ATH again before further push down, but sellers are aggressive and did not even cross 19866 levels
sell on rise for intraday is suitable can if good pull back comes can short positional