03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis | Bearish
Nifty Weekly Analysis
We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks.
Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US markets went up due to the FOMO in Artificial Intelligence stocks should in no way influence Indian stock markets, but it did. At present in the listed space - there are no real big AI names here, yet almost all the sectors participated in a long-only rally with no healthy pullbacks.
Nifty Daily Analysis
I am so much relieved today not just because yesterday’s short call worked, but for the first time in many sessions we had Nifty following price action towards downside. Every other instance the dip buyer would come in at 2.30pm and close Nifty higher - negating any selling pressure.
The manner in which we broke the 19400 level was impressive, the selling momentum ensured we went down till 19296 before bouncing back. The high to low fall was 239pts ~ 1.23% and the pullback was 101pts ~ 0.53%.
From a technical analysis standpoint, nifty respecting the downward trend price action will give so much of an encouragement to the bears. These bears were beaten to pulp in the last 4 months - so it is the right time for payback!
As long as the trend line is getting respected and the EMAs are not crossing over - we remain bearish. The momentum should pick up once the 19200 level is getting broken as there is unfinished business.
We lost 373pts ~ 1.89% between the last expiry day and today. Usually Nifty ends up compensating the loss by dip-buying. For the first time in many weeks - the dip buying is not that intense and that may open up more cuts in the coming weeks.
Our stock market in specific has been in an unchecked rally from April 2023. The fact that US markets went up due to the FOMO in Artificial Intelligence stocks should in no way influence Indian stock markets, but it did. At present in the listed space - there are no real big AI names here, yet almost all the sectors participated in a long-only rally with no healthy pullbacks.
Nifty Daily Analysis
I am so much relieved today not just because yesterday’s short call worked, but for the first time in many sessions we had Nifty following price action towards downside. Every other instance the dip buyer would come in at 2.30pm and close Nifty higher - negating any selling pressure.
The manner in which we broke the 19400 level was impressive, the selling momentum ensured we went down till 19296 before bouncing back. The high to low fall was 239pts ~ 1.23% and the pullback was 101pts ~ 0.53%.
From a technical analysis standpoint, nifty respecting the downward trend price action will give so much of an encouragement to the bears. These bears were beaten to pulp in the last 4 months - so it is the right time for payback!
As long as the trend line is getting respected and the EMAs are not crossing over - we remain bearish. The momentum should pick up once the 19200 level is getting broken as there is unfinished business.
Trade closed: stop reached:
stop loss hit at 19521. view changed to neutral
