02 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Start of a new TREND 🐻
Maybe it was the news that Fitch cut the US rating from AAA to AA+ that sparked the reversals in Asian markets. Our market too started to fall but had a decent recovery in the last 1 hr (just as usual).
The global markets were staying at elevated levels for quite some time now. Our market is at the APEX with the outperformance unchecked. Even with such a strong news flow - the downward impact was not that much, but we did take out some important levels which shows the down-ward rally may be just starting.
Nifty opened gap down and then fell till 11.35 with no signs of slowing down or pull back. We lost 218pts ~ 1.1% in the process which I think is the greatest loss in a 2hr window in recent times.
From 11.35 to 12.45 we traded sideways before the 2nd leg of fall started, we fell 132pts ~ 0.68% in leg2
And just as usual we had a dip-buying or maybe a profit taking from the shorts in the last 1hr, where we recovered 90pts ~ 0.47%. The total fall was just 1.05% ~ 207pts which is in no measure a major impact.
In yesterday's report we mentioned a bias shift to neutral from bullish. When the main support level got taken out, it made sense to go short. And then in round2 the next pivot level was taken out which prompted another round of selling. The failure to take out the 19400 level and a 90pts pullback did take out some confidence of mine.
India VIX although went up 10% today, staying at 11% does not show any fear. For mass participation we need a strong rising VIX above 16 within the next week. Nifty has made a triple top on a descending channel - till the channel holds the bias is now changed to bearish!
The global markets were staying at elevated levels for quite some time now. Our market is at the APEX with the outperformance unchecked. Even with such a strong news flow - the downward impact was not that much, but we did take out some important levels which shows the down-ward rally may be just starting.
Nifty opened gap down and then fell till 11.35 with no signs of slowing down or pull back. We lost 218pts ~ 1.1% in the process which I think is the greatest loss in a 2hr window in recent times.
From 11.35 to 12.45 we traded sideways before the 2nd leg of fall started, we fell 132pts ~ 0.68% in leg2
And just as usual we had a dip-buying or maybe a profit taking from the shorts in the last 1hr, where we recovered 90pts ~ 0.47%. The total fall was just 1.05% ~ 207pts which is in no measure a major impact.
In yesterday's report we mentioned a bias shift to neutral from bullish. When the main support level got taken out, it made sense to go short. And then in round2 the next pivot level was taken out which prompted another round of selling. The failure to take out the 19400 level and a 90pts pullback did take out some confidence of mine.
India VIX although went up 10% today, staying at 11% does not show any fear. For mass participation we need a strong rising VIX above 16 within the next week. Nifty has made a triple top on a descending channel - till the channel holds the bias is now changed to bearish!
Trade closed: target reached:
shorting worked out okay
