Get started

Niftyshort

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 MAY 2023So we have some good news from one of the broker. Zerodha has enabled SENSEX & BANKEX futures & options trade. Those options expire every fridays. Most likely other brokers also will follow suit. So if you plan properly you get an expiry day-trade set up on  Tuesdays - FinNifty Wednesday - MidCapSelect Nifty (Poor liquidity) Thursday - Nifty50 & BankNifty Friday - Sensex & Bankex The biggest advantage I see is that you can try your option strategies 4 out of 5 days without taking positions overnight. This will help people who are wishing to become a full time trader! --- BankNifty had a down day today, fell more than Nifty comparatively. But not enough as we all anticipated. Yesterday US markets fell - SPX -1.12%, NDQ -1.2%. Other Asian and European markets also had big cuts, and our markets were still holding its ground.  Till 11.25 Nifty was rallying not falling - how is that for a change? The options data on Nifty was showing more upside potential, but we really hit a dead-end by 11.30. BankNifty options on the other hand was not as volatile as nifty, I was finding it difficult to gauge the direction from the options flow today. Only after 11.30, I came to know that banknifty is starting to reverse. Even then it did not spook the options premium. The PE premiums were well within its normal wednesday range, there was no unusual spike. The bulls in India were not worried with a global meltdown? I am starting to think the bulls here are too stubborn, they may dig themselves an early grave. --- 15mts shows the trading range converging, but no bias change as of now. Unless the support of 43253 is broken there will not be momentum. And you all know there is no resistance - so its an easy journey upwards. A small trigger/news/event will do to conquer new heights. --- 1hr shows the wedge formation quite decently. When the range converges, what follows is a quick expansion. Guessing the direction is not that easy because we are near all time highs. --- 2 days back we discussed how nifty broke the head & shoulders pattern to trade higher. What has formed today is a classic double top (M pattern). It has a higher weightage because the rejection is right at the resistance level of 18419.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 MAY 2023Once again banknifty has outperformed Nifty50, the intraday recovery from 14.30 to close facilitated by the bulls of the banks. The price action formed today is interesting, but it is not compelling for a sentiment change to bearish as the support of 43253 is still untouched. If you look at the chart pattern today, it was a decent continuation of the trend from yesterday. We can conclude with a 60% confidence that the rounded top like formation made yesterday could be here to stay. The W like pattern formed in 5mts is not really important, but you should keep it in mind. The bulls are quite strong to give away their lead, thats quite the reason we had a 268pts pullback after a 547pts fall earlier in the day. --- 15mts TF shows the perfect rounded top that got formed. Keep in mind these are temporary levels just for intraday, banknifty is at ATH levels and there is no marked resistance - which means that a small trigger can breakout BN to new highs. --- 1hr is still bullish, we will be eagerly waiting for the 1st support break. I was expecting it to be taken out today esp when Nifty50 was looking quite dangerous. But banknifty proved more stronger than thought - not only did it recover, it helped N50 also to reduce the losses. --- Just look at the Nifty50 1 hr chart, continuous red candles till 13.15. Total drop of 1.81% from the swing high. It makes an interesting case here, if the further trades are held below the current levels we will have a bullish trend negation pattern, even while banknifty is continuing in bullish sentiment.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 MAY 2023We are near all time high on NSE:BANKNIFTY - 44151.7 is today's high. The previous high was 44151.8 on 14 Dec 2022. The lowest point was 38613.15 ~ -12.45% on 16 Mar 2023. Numbers are magically adding up, 3 months from High to Low and then exactly 2 months to reclaim the top spot. From the chart you can notice that once we broke the bearish trend line, the rally came fast & furious. i.e from 11th Apr to 15th May we rallied 3116 pts ~ 7.6%. For traders who monitor the break-out rally - they would have followed this trend. --- Daily Analysis Today's price action was rather surprising, BJP the ruling party in Karnataka was toppled by Congress with a good majority. News like this should be negative - yet our markets were rallying - incredible bulls. I am not at all interested in politics, but today's move in NSE:NIFTY , NSE:CNXIT and FinNifty shows 2024 Lok Sabha elections might be won by Congress itself.  From a price action perspective we had a steady up day, there was only 1 minor pull back between 14.15 to 14.25 but that too got bought into. Volumes were also aiding long bias. The credit spread that were getting written in the last 30 to 45 mts were really crazy. Positioning wise more people are favoring further upside as interpreted from the OI data. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry might be interesting as most of the traders are already euphoric, the premiums may spike unusually tomorrow. --- 15 mts TF shows the bullish bias quite clearly today. Since we are the top already, there is no more technical analysis that can be done from a resistance perspective.  The nearest support 43253 is 800 points below, so NSE:BANKNIFTY is quite in a sweet spot.  --- 1hr has made consecutive higher-highs after breaking out from the range. Again we are the top most level and I am quite scared to make any further direction guess. It will be lot better to react to the market once it has decided where it wants to go. --- NSE:NIFTY even though was looking more positive than bank nifty till 13.15, was not able to breakthrough the resistance of 18419. On the hourly candle Nifty made consecutive 5 candles, the 5th candle had closed right above this SR level. But the 14.15 candle gave away those gains -0.34%. I think it is not a bad idea to shift to Nifty50 trading for 2 weeks as we have strong support & resistance level marked. I prefer to trade in a range than trade breakouts & breakdowns.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram