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PostMortem on Nifty50 Today & Analysis of 26 JUN 2023N50 also had very little movement today to fire up the options premium. We even have a 10000 PE for the current week expiry. i.e a strike which is 47% below the spot price. Even a nuclear war will not take us there by Thursday. N50 also maintained the ground today, not falling below the 18650 level ensuring the swing low of 23rd is not broken. When we ended the last session - the sentiment was looking weak. I almost thought we will break the support level today - such was the CE shorting intensity on last Friday. Since we had no continuation of carried forward momentum - I am assuming that most of the positional traders would have booked profits & exited the short CE trades. 1hr TF N50 has formed a rounded double top M like pattern near the ATH zone. The fall from 22nd got some follow through on 23rd but today's move was not supporting. For the M pattern to work perfectly we would require a break down from the support level of 18597.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 JUN 2023BN opened gap up, but right at the opening itself we all anticipated that we are not going to have an up day today. The options flow gave me a bearish bias and was looking for opportunities to enter. The first swing till 10.50 where we had a drop of 222pts & then a retracement of 113pts looked healthy and almost filling all the checklist for the 2nd leg. Instead of making a lower low - the 2nd leg made an upmove to take out the retracement high. By this time the options premium was dead - indicating no more uncertainty ahead. SBIN & ICICIBANK gave ample support to BN today & prevented it from falling. Again the conviction of the bulls were quite strong. Between 15.00 to 15.05 BN made a quick surge of 105pts and then quickly lost it between 15.10 to 15.15 - might have taken out the stop losses of few option traders today. The way in which PE options reacted made me think the major participants would want BN to go up. 1hr TF The double bottom W pattern that formed with the bottom at 43404 is still intact. The upmove from 20th Jun to 22nd Jun was pretty weak that did not allow it to go past the resistance zone of 44068.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 JUN 2023Yesterday I said, " I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also." - guess what Finnifty hit all time high today at 19660.1 at 13.55. This is partly due to the news flow in HDFC & HDFCBK (both are having good weightage in finnifty). This is the main reason it outperformed with gains of 0.68% whereas Nifty & Banknifty had gains of 0.21% each. Today proved to be a perfect day to deploy straddle on banknifty - the momentum to swing was low and open/close were quite nearby. I assume most of the traders would not have deployed it as we had some aggressive move last hour yesterday. Nifty50 on the other hand provided adequate volatility to drive up the options prices much better than BN. The period from 09.55 to 11.15 looked dangerous & I was looking for bearish trades. Again the strength of bulls outpaced the bears - we had a gradual recovery and closed near the high point of day. The biggest difference in trade today BN vs N50 was the volatility. BN was not at all interested in going up or down, whereas N50 had eyes to take out the ATH. Unfortunately we fell short today also. INFY & KOTAKBANK pulled the plug after 15.05 otherwise we should have seen history in the making! I personally think the HDFC-HDFCBK moves 1.63% & 1.75% were unusual and this should have broke the existing rhythm of BN's movement. I would like to see tomorrow's price action i.e. expiry trades too and then become a proper believer. One of the reason I am saying that is even with gains of 1.75%, hdfcbk could only move BN up 0.21%, there were many trades taken on the other banks to counter-balance the upmove in HDFCBK. I would like to see how it pans out tomorrow, esp after 14.00. --- 15mts is still sloping downwards indicating weakness. Its not an outright bearish view but somehow BN is not that excited with N50 going for new highs.  --- 1hr shows a converging pattern unless we breakdown from the 43402 levels & cross 43253 quickly. Currently what BN is lacking is momentum, only a downward move will give it strength to rally & break through!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 JUN 2023Nifty was looking fully loaded to hit a new all time high today, it ended 23 pts short!  Probably Nifty50 requires more postmortem than banknifty today, so let us start there! N50 started the day gap-up thanks to the +ve handout from SPX yesterday. Once it reached the resistance zone of 18762, it lost steam and was trading sideways. All of a sudden at 13.55, N50 got some turbo boost and went over the resistance through ease. Not just that, it was poised to take out the ATH. All the candles from 13.55 to 14.55 were green and a rally of 107pts ~ 0.57%. The reversal came exactly when banknifty hit the resistance - which we will discuss below. Banknifty came back very strong from yesterday's brutal selling. It added 494 pts today thanks to the outperformance by all the major banks. None of the bank stocks closed in red today. The rally from 13.55 to 14.55 helped banknifty climb 396pts ~ 0.91% vs 0.57% for N50. But look at the encircled region near the 44068 resistance zone. As soon as this was hit, banknifty came tumbling down - pulling down N50 too. NiftyIT was weak today, otherwise we would have definitely hit a new ATH! Seems like the next week we will have some real action! --- 15mts TF shows BN made an attempt to get back to the familiar trading range, as the resistance zone came in the way - that move got spoiled. Will the positiveness of N50 pull up banknifty to new ATHs next week - we will watch next week. --- 1hr TF plotted with the Fibonacci retracement shows BN is right at the 61.8% levels from the fall yesterday. It also shows there was some friction at the 50% level where it spent 3hrs today. The chart is not bearish yet, but the inability to cross the resistance throws some questions on us. --- We had 2 contradicting moves this week. On 13th June Finnifty expiry we had the markets make a fake upmove as proven by the rejection on 14th down move. On 15th we had a fake down move as proven by the rejection today with a strong upmove. There is a small subset of traders who understand how the markets are getting manipulated & play along. Unless BSE brings the BANKEX expiry to Wednesday - we are going to witness these unusual speculations.  On a broader note the investors are unaffected - the markets are not going anywhere, literally.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 JUN 2023 FinNiftyAnother day went by where the last 1 hr changed the sentiment of the day. Banknifty rallied 188pts ~ 0.43% from the LOD to the HOD all in 65 mts 14.20 to 15.25. Till that point the view was bearish and open for shorting opportunities. Just check the encircled area, banknifty was struggling to go past the resistance of 44068. The set up seemed almost perfect for a short-sell opportunity, it even had follow through when the 13.50 and 13.55 shaved off 114pts ~ 0.26%. Even the BN options data was showing weakness ahead. But Nifty50 had other plans, you would have noticed how strong it was even in the morning session. And it was not due to NiftyIT's support alone, RELIANCE, ASIANPAINT, ITC, HUL were all amassing gains. The option data for nifty was showing bullishness - the mistake I did was to anticipate nifty to fall once banknifty started its descent.  In fact the real opposite happened, Nifty50 pulled banknifty up, helped it cross the resistance with ease. My decision to go short was taken in a hurry to capitalize on the Finnifty expiry - but what it did was to take out the stop loss. Technically today banknifty and finnifty crossed the resistance whereas nifty50 has few more points to go i.e. till 18762. To an extent the last hour rally would have been due to the positive expectancy from US CPI data. Moreover SPX is at a 52wk high (not at all time high though). --- 15mts chart of BN still shows its trading in a range. Was expecting the lower end to break down today, but that did not happen. --- 1hr TF is also continuing in the same range. The upper band is at ATH levels - crossing that would mean a breakout trade and for that to happen banknifty would have to build lot of momentum. --- Finnifty Expiry Special Finnifty had a chart similar to banknifty. 19421 was the crucial SR zone for today, earlier in the day the trading was happening above this level. Between 13.50 to 13.55 there was a sudden fall back to the SR level. Again I assumed it will break this level and fall below the recent swing low. What actually happened was a rocket-style surge 90pts ~ 0.47% to ensure finnifty closed at the high of the day. From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were decent enough and had adequate juice till 14.00. 19450 CE which closed in the money would have been a jackpot strike if the buyer got in at Rs6 to Rs7 levels as it went up 3x.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JUN 2023Quite an unexpected performance by NiftyIT today up +1.51% which would have spoiled the party for the Nifty50 bears. Last week as it ended was looking pretty negative for Nifty and flattish for BankNifty. Banknifty had a steady day today, down only 0.1% but the prices were consistently falling giving the impression that selling is still not over. From a technical perspective, banknifty has broken no support nor was looking dangerous. It just looked like a day where banknifty did not want to rally! HDFCBK and ICICIBANK were struggling to keep Nifty50 flat whereas INFY & TCS were pulling it to the top. Even nifty50 did not do anything technically today, although the first candle looked dangerous and had given the impression we will have a lower low today. The option prices on Nifty50 was again more volatile than Banknifty, I am starting to think which one has a higher beta these days. From an option seller's perspective it makes no sense in trading banknifty at these premium levels. BN spot is at 44000 and 45000 CE has a premium of Rs12 with 3 days to expiry. Usually I see a price of Rs12 for a strike 1000pts away on wednesday close, imagine the same value on a monday close. Nifty50 options premium even though low is far better than banknifty - there is enough juice to be squeezed. --- 15mts TF is still range bound, but we have a peak formation inside this range. The prices have hit the lower & upper end of the range multiple times now. This could indicate a range expansion soon!  --- 1hr shows a double top like pattern formed at the all time high zone. The pull back we had from ATH could be entirely technical due to positioning. We will wait for the lower end of the range to break to conclude if a new downward trend is starting or not. to view the 4 charts in discussion today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 JUN 2023Banknifty was fighting hard to stay in green, Nifty50 on the other hand was vulnerable to fall. Another day went by wherein Nifty was proving to be more volatile than banknifty.  Percentage wise both banknifty and nifty fell around 0.5% between 12.30 to 14.30 but the perceived fall for nifty50 was higher as the prevailing price action gave it more momentum. Banknifty on the other hand showed a flattish pattern and ended the day just 0.01% down vs nifty 0.38% down. The option premiums were dragging for both banknifty as well as nifty earlier in the day. This was mainly because of no directional trend getting established. If you observe closely, banknifty went below yesterday's close only for short intervals. I am not quite clear why and how banknifty managed to hold on today when NiftyIT, Reliance, ITC, HINDUNILVR were dragging. I thought the fall in Nifty was purely technical, but banknifty not participating - keeps my doubts unanswered. --- 15mts TF showing no emotions as of now, the chart looking flattish with no particular bias. Banknifty unable to take out the 44068 resistance today might be something the bears could be cheering about. --- 1hr TF is still upward looking and no downside threats so far. The next support is 725+ points away and any inclination to close that gap will send the options premium spiking. Even after a 70+ point fall in Nifty50 today, the India VIX was still not rising. And at 11.12% its trading near the lowest levels. Option sellers might be facing a tough time to find high probability trades in a falling VIX environment. Even option buyers will not be rewarded unless their direction is accurate & there is a quick movement. And its expected - when markets are near all time highs, the volatility should be near all time lows.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
Bank Nifty Futures 28th May 2023 LevelsSpecial markings in Red, blue and Green solid lines are very important areas and opening of the trade in the morning gives us a reasonable idea along with other factors as to how the day should proceed. If you have been following the levels from the previous charts by now you would have seen the importance of how correctly marked areas worked . we can visualize from the chart where a trade with defined risk can be taken. The dotted lines in red blue and green can be tagged incase of a break on either side. The dotted lines ate the untouched VAH, VAL or poc which can be tagged. If you carefully watch the previous charts you will understand how the dotted lines get tagged during the course of the day Keep following for live market updates.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by SABMR
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 MAY 2023First time in many weeks, banknifty underperformed nifty50. Ideally this move should have come last week when nifty50 had 2 more resistances to break and banknifty was near ATH. Better late than never. Nifty50 shooting pass banknifty is actually good for the entire stock markets in India. Only when all the components have caught up - a bullish trend is synchronized. This will pave the way for further breakouts. Friday we went home with the news that Rs2000 denominated currency notes are getting removed from circulation w.e.f Sep 30 2023.  Theoretically this should be good news for the banks - approx. 2-3 lakh crore stashed cash is going to return to the banking sector. Majority of this will flow into fixed deposits, debt mutual funds, equity mutual funds & stocks. From a formal economic perspective - this may be the best decision ever made. Ideally Rs500 currency also should be withdrawn in the next 3 to 5 year (according to me) so that the digital migration will gain more momentum. Having said that, I assume the economists & advisors has taken into consideration what will happen to the informal economy which is the silent backbone of real economic activity in India. Nobody has any clue how much of turnover is happening there - but its still huge! Kirana shops, road side vendors, dalals, brokers, drivers, maids, caretakers, chaiwalas etc are all from the informal sector. I am not really sure how many of them even have a bank account, leave alone financial investment opportunities. My grandfather used to carry cash with him, keep some in almari & some in the cash-pot near pooja room. Usually when the number of notes goes up - he exchanged it for the highest denomination available & stored it. He did not use a bank account then! I assume there would be lot of people in India who does the same even today (hope they get saved). --- Coming back to our analysis, as per the options data there was lot of fresh shorts taken at CE side. Mostly in the afternoon session. This contradicts with the nifty50 view which has got some new hope as the H&S pattern was negated today. The encircled traded region which just nullified a bearish chart pattern would have caused lot of momentum shift. Again as per options data shorts were created on the PE side. As I see it, market participants are long on nifty and short on banknifty. A real tough scenario to play out as banknifty has 38% weightage. Possible options are niftyIT to outperform (12% weightage) along with Reliance (10%) & LT + ITC (8%).  This should be a mega fishing week for the option sellers as a strong breakout could only emerge if there is short-covering on banknifty. Nifty by itself may not be able to pull all the weight. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry may lead the way when few positions in HDFC & Bajaj twins gets unwound. --- 15mts is in a range based trade as of now which kind of makes it a good reward:risk for non-directional option strategies ultra short term. --- 1hr shows the trading range getting narrowed, the lows are getting shifted higher and the highs are getting lower. What follows is usually a range expansion. Chart may say the break would be on the upside, but the reality could be dependent on even macro/news events.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram