viswaram

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 JUN 2023

NSE:BANKNIFTY   NIFTY Bank Index
Yesterday I said, " I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also." - guess what Finnifty hit all time high today at 19660.1 at 13.55. This is partly due to the news flow in HDFC & HDFCBK (both are having good weightage in finnifty). This is the main reason it outperformed with gains of 0.68% whereas Nifty & Banknifty had gains of 0.21% each.

Today proved to be a perfect day to deploy straddle on banknifty - the momentum to swing was low and open/close were quite nearby. I assume most of the traders would not have deployed it as we had some aggressive move last hour yesterday.

Nifty50 on the other hand provided adequate volatility to drive up the options prices much better than BN. The period from 09.55 to 11.15 looked dangerous & I was looking for bearish trades. Again the strength of bulls outpaced the bears - we had a gradual recovery and closed near the high point of day.

The biggest difference in trade today BN vs N50 was the volatility. BN was not at all interested in going up or down, whereas N50 had eyes to take out the ATH. Unfortunately we fell short today also. INFY & KOTAKBANK pulled the plug after 15.05 otherwise we should have seen history in the making!

I personally think the HDFC-HDFCBK moves 1.63% & 1.75% were unusual and this should have broke the existing rhythm of BN's movement. I would like to see tomorrow's price action i.e. expiry trades too and then become a proper believer.

One of the reason I am saying that is even with gains of 1.75%, hdfcbk could only move BN up 0.21%, there were many trades taken on the other banks to counter-balance the upmove in HDFCBK. I would like to see how it pans out tomorrow, esp after 14.00.

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15mts is still sloping downwards indicating weakness. Its not an outright bearish view but somehow BN is not that excited with N50 going for new highs. 

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1hr shows a converging pattern unless we breakdown from the 43402 levels & cross 43253 quickly. Currently what BN is lacking is momentum, only a downward move will give it strength to rally & break through!

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