PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 JUN 23 + Finnifty
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How many of you were prepared for the last 1 hour move today, I assume 90% of traders would have anticipated it.
The real wow moment would be if we get to see the unwinding tomorrow. At least till the 43528 levels.
We added 331pts between 14.25 to close today, most of which were due to Nifty's resistance crossing or positional trade on Finnifty expiry. The truth is we will only get to know tomorrow.
Banknifty's open was inline and the good news for the bear is we broke the swing low of 15th June. If you looked at the opening hour price action, banknifty was really showing signs of further selling, but it did not happen.
Again we got saved by the crazy dip buyers, this is more evident in the Nifty50 chart.
From 10.40 there was consistent buying in N50, but the buying momentum came to a halt near the resistance level of 18762. From 13.25 to 14.25 the pressure was building on N50 to break through the resistance - but we all knew it had to come via banknifty or finnifty.
As Finnifty had expiry today, the job was simple - buy some bank stocks today and get the nifty to surge past the resistance. These big boys could really square off these purchases tomorrow & could make money both ways.
The green candles from 15.00 to close is an indication of how Nifty50 surged once the resistance was breached. We literally ran out of time, otherwise we could have taken out the ATH today itself.
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15mts TF is showing some unique signals, we are getting lower highs but the lower lows are not that distinct & sharp. For real selling pressure we need deeper lower lows.
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1hr TF is still not bearish, it would have almost tipped in the favor or bears today if 43253 got broken. Sadly that did not happen, but I am sensing pressure getting build up & honestly banknifty did not want Nifty50 to cross the ATH.
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Finnifty Expiry Special
The proof that speculation came from Finnifty is here, the surge of 0.78% when it was 0.3% down! Who would believe that! Since the markets are gung-ho & there is optimism all around - we normally dont expect markets to go in red.
When in red, bouncing back to zero levels or cutting the losses - understood. But going from -0.3% to end the day with +0.4% gains - unusual ! Well, I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also.
The surge in 19450 CE was proof of this. 1577% ROI on this strike alone, you wont believe, I squared off this position at 6.5 only to see it zoom to 52.9 in the money!
How many of you were prepared for the last 1 hour move today, I assume 90% of traders would have anticipated it.
The real wow moment would be if we get to see the unwinding tomorrow. At least till the 43528 levels.
We added 331pts between 14.25 to close today, most of which were due to Nifty's resistance crossing or positional trade on Finnifty expiry. The truth is we will only get to know tomorrow.
Banknifty's open was inline and the good news for the bear is we broke the swing low of 15th June. If you looked at the opening hour price action, banknifty was really showing signs of further selling, but it did not happen.
Again we got saved by the crazy dip buyers, this is more evident in the Nifty50 chart.
From 10.40 there was consistent buying in N50, but the buying momentum came to a halt near the resistance level of 18762. From 13.25 to 14.25 the pressure was building on N50 to break through the resistance - but we all knew it had to come via banknifty or finnifty.
As Finnifty had expiry today, the job was simple - buy some bank stocks today and get the nifty to surge past the resistance. These big boys could really square off these purchases tomorrow & could make money both ways.
The green candles from 15.00 to close is an indication of how Nifty50 surged once the resistance was breached. We literally ran out of time, otherwise we could have taken out the ATH today itself.
---
15mts TF is showing some unique signals, we are getting lower highs but the lower lows are not that distinct & sharp. For real selling pressure we need deeper lower lows.
---
1hr TF is still not bearish, it would have almost tipped in the favor or bears today if 43253 got broken. Sadly that did not happen, but I am sensing pressure getting build up & honestly banknifty did not want Nifty50 to cross the ATH.
---
Finnifty Expiry Special
The proof that speculation came from Finnifty is here, the surge of 0.78% when it was 0.3% down! Who would believe that! Since the markets are gung-ho & there is optimism all around - we normally dont expect markets to go in red.
When in red, bouncing back to zero levels or cutting the losses - understood. But going from -0.3% to end the day with +0.4% gains - unusual ! Well, I will be a believer if we continue the green spell tomorrow also.
The surge in 19450 CE was proof of this. 1577% ROI on this strike alone, you wont believe, I squared off this position at 6.5 only to see it zoom to 52.9 in the money!
