Q&A_ Is Adani group in a bubble?Namaste!
Adani group is in a bubble, if I consider the following points.
1. Rs 400 to Rs 4000 in a matter of 2 years. This isn't a behaviour of a large-cap stock.
2. The Adani group companies have borrowed hugely. Just look at the debt to equity ratio of Adani companies:-
Adani Enterprises: 1.31
Adani Ports: 1.04
Adani Transmissions: 3.16
Adani Total Gas: 0.45
Adani Power: 1.87
Adani Green: 7.70
Adani Wilmar: 0.40
Average debt to equity is 2.275.
Debt to equity above 1 is bad.
3. The overleveraged companies will mostly hit hard in a scenario of a recession. The central banks will increase interest rates to fight inflation, which will increase cost of borrowing. Interest rate payments in the over-leveraged companies will keep eating their current as well as future profits. This profits is already decreased because of a recession. You and me (consumers) will spend less on goods and services due to high cost of living, which has already decreased the profit in most of the companies' pocket.
4. Coming recession: Inflation has crossed highest in 4 decades in USA and UK, 3 decades in India, etc. The central banks will keep increasing interest rates to stabilise their respective economies.
5. The political friendship:- The friendship between current ruling party and Adani has been stronger due to the give-and-take relationship in the past. This is one of the reasons why people and investors are betting hard on Adani companies.
6. What should retail people do:
A: Stay away from Adani group companies. There are tons of good undervalued companies so why would anyone only want Adani group company?
Just because of FOMO (fear of missing out)? then, it's harmful in the long term especially to retail people. You know, the big investors (institutions) has expertise and knowledge to manage their losing bets. But retail people has only option to sell it at a loss.
Recession has not been reflected in the Indian stock market now, but the big investors (institutions) will be lowering their stakes in these risky companies once they see weakness.
What do you think about this analysis, please let me know.
Disclaimer: The analysis I've shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. The future can not be predicted only be forecasted based on higher probability of happening. Please do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
