Nifty on Radar - 27 MayNifty is likely to remain sideways or rangebound in the near-term with heavy call and put writing around the 23,000 mark
CMP - 22,957.10
Key Support : 22,750 - 22560
Resistance : 23,050 - 23,150
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Rangebound
NIFTY DAILY - 19/3/2024Another choppy day, Nifty open lower and traded range bound thought the session.
Nifty has formed green body small candle with upper and lower shadow.
Nifty took support near 21900 for the fourth consecutive time.
Further levels for nifty will be 22115 will work as resistance level and 22831 will work as support level.
Today’s Advance Decline ratio of NIFTY50
Advance - 21
Decline - 29
FII Sell – 2051.09 crore
DII Buy + 2260.88 crore.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
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Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
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MOL - 2 Years Downtrend / 1 year consolidation BreakoutMeghmani Organics Ltd
1) Time Frame - Weekly.
2) The Stock has been in a Downtrend since (May, 2022) & In a Consolidation since (January, 2023) . Now It has given a consolidation / downtrend breakout & Closed with good bullish momentum in Weekly Time Frame.
3) The stock will find it's next resistance around the price 112.75 (13.75%) from the price 99.15.
4) Recommendation - Strong Buy
FCL Fineotex - 1.5 years consolidation Breakout / All Time HighFineotex Chemical Ltd
1) Time Frame - Weekly.
2) The Stock has been in a consolidation since (September, 2022). Now It has given a breakout & Closed at it's All Time High with strong bullish momentum in weekly time frame.
3) The primary trendline will act as a resistance around the price 577 in the short term.
4) Recommendation - Strong Buy
Bank Nifty Analysis 17th Jan'24As mentioned previously avoid and beware of false break outs and traps same happend today in morning unable to break 48280 to 42300 false breakout and then back to days low at 48000
Stills looks buyer have controlled from falling below 48000. looks tomorrow may have gap opening in Bank nifty.
See Bank nifty also making range between support & resistance keep eye on opening for tomorrow also expiry may turned out to be trend day.
Support 48000
Resistance 48200 to 42300
Bank Nifty Simple Analysis- Bank nifty took support today tried going up side making range bound in second half. and trapped many with volatile moves.
- May take dip before going up till 42100 to 42200 or stay range bound
- bullish move can be expected if cross 42350 and sustain. Bounce is expected till 42600 in coming days
Nifty: Chart set up and important levels for 12 Oct 2012Since Oct 5, it was suggested a short covering rally can be expected above 19482. Even after Israel-Palestine situation, I had suggested that if Brent crude is below $90, then we would bounce back after an initial knee jerk reaction.
That is what we have seen. After a reaction on Monday, Nifty has rallied roughly 345 points in the last 2 days.
Open Interest has come down by 8.18% (4.24% on Wednesday and 3.94% on Tuesday) suggesting that the current rally is a Short covering rally.
However Can the momentum continue without a decrease in Open Interest?
FIIs have been selling in Cash Market as well and were Net sellers yet again to the tune of Rs 421.77 Cr
DIIs have bought in Cash Market to the tune of Rs 1032.02 Cr
Important levels which may act as Support and resistance for the day
Imp levels on the upside: 19865 / 19890 / 19922
Imp levels on the downside 19705 / 19682 / 19640
The zone of 19640-19682 is going to be very important for the Oct series.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
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Tata Chemicals rangebound Tata chemicals has formed a beautiful symmetrical triangle pattern and requires traders to trade the range, buying at the lower trend line and selling at the higher. It has also formed a golden cross- When 50EMA passes 200EMA from below showing bullish nature.
A break of the lower trend line will see an end to the trade, making it a risky one.. Hence we should position size in a smart way.
What is position sizing?
It is when you first add half your position to check If the market is saying you are right or wrong, if the market moves in your direction, you will add your second half and tighten your stop loss. This way you add two positions but one only when the market shows you that you are correct.
Example: Suppose your risk is 100 per trade, You first buy enough Qt to risk only 50 ( Typically with a larger stop) and if the market forms a green candle or another bullish sign, you add another Qt to risk 50 more ( Total risk 100) and your second stop loss becomes tighter ( most probably at the breakeven of the first position) this way you minimise your loss but ur reward is the same and even more. If your first stop gets hit, you accept your mistake and move on.
I would suggest to risk only half of what you normally risk on this trade since the risk to reward is very favourable with a small stop loss.
Example- If you normally risk 1000 per trade, this time risk only 500 since the potential is the same reward with lesser risk making it a A+ set up.
If a green candle or a bullish candle is formed at the trend line, we can add to more positions.
Keep It Simple
Nifty Analysis 15 Min!NSE:NIFTY Analysis on a 15-Min Timeframe!
Nifty50 Range-bound!
Parallel channel formation in Nifty50!
Disclaimer = All my analysis is for Educational Purposes only. Before entering into any trade -
1) Educate Yourself
2) Do your research and analysis
3) Define your Risk to Reward ratio
4)Don't trade with full capital
BankNifty - 19 July 2023I have clearly explained in my YT video about today's rangebound market and tomorrow's prediction.
Please do watch my old videos in Daily Analysis Playlist to understand the Entry and Exit criteria.
Do follow and subscribe if you like the analysis .
I've Bullish sentiment for tomorrow. Everything depends on tomorrow's market opening.
Trade or invest according to your analysis. This is just my view.
<----- 3MRT Trading ----->
Nifty: At upper end of resistance band. Taking calculated shortNifty
In my last update, it was suggested that on the down side 17860 is important level to watch out for and that Nifty has a high probability of testing 18030 odd levels in a day or 2.
Next day, On a 15 minute candlestick pattern, Nifty made a closing low of 17861 and bounced back immediately and then made a closing high (15 min candle) of 18023 odd levels.
Both levels worked very well.
Today Nifty has opened gap up and is trading at the upper end of the yellow resistance band.
Now is the testing time... If Nifty sustains above the yellow resistance zone then possibly Nifty might head further towards 18200 / 18400 odd levels.
Unable to sustain would suggest less Buying interest above 18000 and that would give an upper hand to Bears to go short again.
Remember this rally has been led by short covering by FIIs.
There has to be follow up buying for the rally to be sustainable.
As suggested in previous post, I was ready to see this level and on signs of rejection would be taking further action.
- Nifty is trading below it's opening price
- Nifty is trading below VWAP
- Reliance and ICICI Bank on expected lines showing profit booking at resistance levels mentioned in their respective post.
Given the cues, Now Adding to my short position (again it is hedged position).
I would be closely watching Friday's close. I could be wrong and I am willing to take a calculated risk at current levels.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NiftyAnalysis:
Weekly
EVENT (Feb 1 Budget date ) So My Experience volatility will be there and Indian vix will increase upto budget date
1. Upper side is having resistance and bottom side having support .
So wait for the range breakout or breakdown
2. As per the closing bases
*Closing base 26 dec 2022 18105.30
*Closing base 02 jan 2022 17859.45
*Closing base 09 jan 2022 17956.60
*Closing base 16 jan 2022 18027.65
*Closing base 23 jan 2022 17891.95
( So the close to close bases support level is round number 17800 Below this selling will start )
( Buying will happened in 18250 to 18300)
Note : This is just prediction and market it may happen any thing so follow the risk reward ratio.
Reliance: Support Resistance and trading strategyReliance
The Chart set up
The stock has been sideways for the last 8-9 months.
The stock has fallen approximately 9% from the top in the month of December so far.
Important levels on the downside which has the potential to provide support
S1 - 2467-2485
S2 - 2405-2420
Important levels on the upside which has the potential to act as resistance
R1 - 2565-2588
R2 - 2632-2680
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My Trading strategy
Given the set up, my trading strategy for Reliance: Short Strangle strategy for January series
Sell January 2023 expiry
2640 Call option &
2400 Put option
Net incoming 52 points
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Gain potential and understanding risk profile
Max profit potential of Rs 13700 per strategy lot, if Jan expiry day close is anywhere between 2400-2640
( roughly 12% ROI on margin requirement)
Loss in strategy, if Reliance closing is above 2692 or below 2348 on 25th Jan 2023.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
My Risk Management levels
Review points for managing risk
2467 / 2420 on the downside
2580/ 2612 on the upside
These review points are based on support and resistance levels identified in chart analysis and accordingly trading strategy has been curated which should give ample time and scope to adjust / exit in case view of rangebound movement is getting invalidated.
Apart from these, I would be also monitoring Crude oil price movement.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hope the analysis and explanation of trading strategy helps you plan and manage your trade.
Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
To trade with me, Do Like and Follow for getting more trading ideas like these...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
EaseMyTrip Price Action AnalysisThere is a pennant (symmetrical triangle) pattern formation (blue triangle).
By choosing baseline charting (instead of candlestick or range), you can visualize the swings.
As of now it's hitting the resistance of 403. If it able to break the previous swing high (409 on 04/10) with volume, it can go high (~425).
But see the black dotted line. That's a "prediction" heuristic (no guarantee, it's just a heuristic) where price-action can go.
If it fails to break the upper trend line, then the range is: 400-375.
SBIN: Chart analysis, view and trading strategySBIN
We are looking at weekly chart of SBIN stock
Observations
- SBIN is yet to give a weekly closing above the Sept 12 - Sept 19 weekly high
- support at 554 / 545 / 530 zone
Given the set up
One can wait for SBIN to close and sustain above 579 on a weekly closing basis or for at least 3 days before taking for fresh long position
Otherwise 530-540 zone could be a better place to enter
Derivatives Strategy
One may consider a Bear Call Spread strategy in SBIN for November series
Sell 600 Call option
Buy 630 Call option
Net receivables 6 points
Lot size 1500
Max Profit Potential of Rs 9000 per strategy lot till 24 Nov 2022
Profit potential of 12.5% approximately on Margin requirement
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Like, follow, share for more trading ideas like these
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Ambuja Cement: Chart set up and trade potentialAmbuja Cement
- After a big euphoric rally the stock seems to be consolidating now in the yellow channel box
21 day EMA is around 500
53 day EMA is around 464 and rising by around 1 point
My trading strategy is for a range bound market scenario.
Giving a profit potential of 11% till expiry as well as keeping loss limited
For details Like and message me
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
-The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Kotal Mahindra Bank: Range BoundLogic (Range bound): In shorter period, it's ascending triangle (green lines). In longer tf (red downtrend line is longer time downslope trendline), it's symmetrical triangle (pennant). Most likely the breakout will be at higher level only as the shorter term is bullish.
Fundamentally : Kotak Bank is the _best_ asset quality bank across PSU and pvt banks. Very resilient risk access and management.
Technical levels are marked in the chart.
Nifty: Chart set up for November series and trading strategyNifty
- we see Nifty trading above 21 day EMA, 63 day EMA and well above 252 day EMA
- Line of resistance around 18200 odd levels
- Line of Support around 16800
- So is the 200 day EMA support around 16780
Right now we are in the middle of the range
Trading strategy
Given the set up one may consider a Short Strangle strategy for Nifty for November series
Sell 18300 Call option currently around 93
Sell 16500 Put option currently around 79
Net receivables 172 points. Yield potential of approximately 9% on Margin deployed in strategy till 24 Nov 2022.
Loss in strategy if Nifty closes above 18472 or below 16328 on 24 November.
Review points for me, 18030 on the upside and 16800 on the lower side. This would give ample time to exit / adjust in case need be. You decide on your Risk Management part.
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Do Like and Follow for more such trading ideas!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be