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GBPUSD redraws monthly bottom, drops towards 1.3550GBPUSD takes offers around 1.3620, refreshing one-month low after UK Retail Sales for July disappointed the cable traders during early Friday. Also weighing on the quote could be the US dollar’s safe-haven demand, backed by the covid and taper tantrums. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading below 200-DMA and bearish MACD adds to the downside signals. Hence, GBPUSD prices are likely to remain weak, at least for now, but a descending trend line from April 12, near 1.3550, could restrict the quote’s further weakness. Additionally challenging Sterling’s weakness around 1.3550 is the RSI conditions, which if ignored could portray a 100-pip slump to 50% Fibonacci retracement. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for April’s low near 1.3670 before targeting 200-DMA around 1.3785. However, a convergence of a downward sloping trend line from June and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3880 will become a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls past 1.3785. Successful trading beyond 1.3785 will confirm a falling wedge bullish chart pattern opening the door for a north-run targeting a fresh yearly top beyond 1.4250.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Australian dollar dips, CPI nextThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and recorded slight gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7781, down 0.22% on the day. Australian CPI showed a strong gain of 0.9% in the fourth quarter, and an identical gain is projected for the first quarter of the year. The economy is performing well, boosted by stronger demand for Australian commodities and ultra-low interest rates. Unemployment has been falling, undeterred by the end of the JobKeeper employment programme at the end of March. Not surprisingly, inflation is also showing strength, reflective of the positive economic conditions. Consumers are again spending, as Retail Sales rebounded in March with a gain of 1.4%, after a decline of 0.8% beforehand. This beat the forecast of 1.0%. The economy continues to grow after being reopened, and consumer spending is expected to be a key driver in the economic recovery. The RBA is projecting that GDP and employment will reach pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, which is 6-12 months faster than the central bank had expected. In addition to stronger domestic demand, Australia stands to benefit from a more robust global economy, which will translate into stronger demand for Australian exports. This bodes well for the Australian dollar, which has a tight correlation with commodity prices. Despite the rosy economic picture, the RBA remains cautious and has not given any indication that it plans to raise interest rates or even taper its QE programme. At its last meeting, the bank noted that inflation remains low and below the central bank's target, which is between 2-3 per cent. The bank added that although the employment picture has improved, unemployment still remains too high for its liking. AUD/USD is putting strong resistance at 0.7813. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there is support at 0.7688, followed by support at 0.7627
by OANDA
Gold eyes further downside below $1,800Although oversold RSI conditions placate gold bears around $1,790, a sustained trading below the $1,800 threshold joins expected further recovery in the US dollar to challenge the upside momentum. However, the quote’s further declines will have to break a descending trend line from mid-January, at $1,772 now, to revisit the November 2020 low near $1,765. On a fundamental side, anticipated recovery in the US Retail Sales during January and the FOMC minutes may also exert downside pressure on the bullion. Though, any disappointment will not be taken lightly ahead of the US covid relief stimulus and hence can recall the $1,800 round-figure to the chart. Following that, the $1,830 and the monthly resistance line, around $1,844, can entertain gold buyers before pushing them to the 200-bar SMA near $1,853. During the bullion’s sustained run-up beyond $1,853, the monthly horizontal resistance near $1,875 becomes the key hurdle to watch.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal