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#DOWJONES forms an Inside Bar on Weekly ChartsBreak below Red Trendline can cause a bit of a correction. Not a case for any severe negativity.
BANKNIFTY for 16th JanuaryThat Banknifty is weaker of the two indices was once again proved today when Nifty retraced its entire fall in second half but BNF just could go only half-way. Indusind Bank extended its yesterday’s fall by more than 5% and SBI too was among top 5 losers in Nifty stocks. So BNF did pay its price. So clearly, look at shorting BNF but going long for Nifty. Please check my video posted on youtube under channel name Market Movers India for slightly more analytical content. Tomorrow, we are most likely to open gap up due to trade agreement signing between US and China. As of now DJIA is already 140 points up. I have given my buy levels on Nifty in my post on Nifty and the sell levels for Banknifty are marked on attached 15 min chart.
All the best. Happy trading.
DOW Jones (BULLISH)The DJIA is all set to make new High. Ascending triangle pattern in formation.
espite so many loopholes in economy the global markets are all making new highs, lets see how long will this go on. Nifty PE around 27.47
GE is at a very important juncture! The stock is trading at a very crucial juncture. The RSI is indicating a sideways trend, important support pivot level is 8.75, below this point the stock may falter and selling may set in as the stock may start to move down in A-B-C pattern. On the flip side a good close above 9.30 may change the course of the trend GE may start trending up. For greater insight on RSI do visit www.prorsi.com
NIFTY on 3rd OctoberFrankly there is nothing that inspires confidence in Bulls except that both Nifty and BankNifty both reversed their downward journey from junction of their 20 DEMA and DEMA. And for that reason only we might hope that it must have some strength. Otherwise its all bad news for tomorrow. DJIA is currently 570 points down, second big drop in a row if it remains near these levels. On Monday, FIIs made Net Sale of 1298 Crs & DIIs were Net purchasers by 1503 Crs. Option chain data on PUT side doesn't show any Put writing, only Put unwinding on higher strikes. Strikes of 11400 & 11300 show total OI of 10.77 and 11.38 lakhs respctively which is decent. ON CALL side, highest total OI and Call writing is at 11600 but even 11500 & 11600 have impressive build-up of total OI and Call writing. Even 11400 has total OI of 12.82 lakhs and Call writing of 6.22 lakhs. So resistances abound! On chart, There is a strong resistance as marked and hence Shorting can be done there. Again, one word of caution- do not short if price arrives there in later half by around 2 pm or so, since tomorrow we have expiry.
ALL the best. Happy trading.
NIFTY for 20th SeptemberEven the biggest pessimist on Indian economy wouldn't have guessed the severity of today's fall! The signals were better than day before yesterday. Oil price in control, Rupee appreciated, Fed rate cut by 25 bps and still Nifty falls by around 135 points! Let alone recovery, atleast the stop in fall was expected. So tonight also signals are good- Rupee closed at 71.325, up by 9 paise; Brent crude quoting at around $63.5 per barrel in world markets and DJIA at the moment is up by 66 points. And yet it is possible that we fall tomorrow again! The extent or lower limit is just beyond our comprehension it seems. Lets see what other data conveys:
1) FII & DII data: Provisional figures show that FIIs were Net Sellers by 892 Crs and DIIs were Net Buyers by 646 Crs. Final figures for Wednesday show that FIIs were net sellers on Wednesday by 933 Crs but Net buyers in Index and stock futures by 542 Crs and 601 Crs. Selling in Equity continues and trading bets are still being taken by FIIs, it seems.
2) Option Chain data: Expiry, 26th September; On PUT side, we have interesting set of data. The highest total OI (34.93 lakhs) is at 10800 ( CMP is 10704.8, almost 95 points below 10800 strike) which has Put unwinding and highest fresh Put writing (6.69 lakhs) is at 10700 strike. The 2nd highest total OI is at 10600. As per OI data, support is inconclusive. On CALL side, highest total OI (44.77 lakhs) is at 11000 and highest fresh Call writing (19.51 lakhs) is at 10800 which has 3rd highest total OI (28.91 lakhs). So for me, even 10800 isformidable resistance. So as is evident, due to highest total OI, 10800 is tussle point between bulls and bears.
3) Charts: On charts, Nifty finished as a strong red candle with lower high and lower low than yesterday's candle. Because of the steep fall right in morning hours, a Selling area got created which is marked on chart. If Nifty rises till that level, one can short with good RR.
All the best. Happy trading.
NETFLIX | LONG | DIVERSION | FALLING WEDGE | HELLO EVERYONE,
TODAY I AM GOING TO SHOW YOU THAT NETFLIX MAY GO UP DUE TO SOME REASONS.
1. FALLING WEDGE PATTERN
2. DIVERSION IN SCRIPT
3. IMPROVE IN ECONOMY
NIFTY for 9th SeptemberOn friday, 6th September, based on reports that Finance Minister will again announce some important stimuli, like it had happened on 2 previous fridays, both Nifty and Bank Nifty (BNF) staged a rally. If you see closely, you will find that in first half BNF was pulling Nifty and in later half it was Nifty which was stronger than BNF. Consequently, since I had suggested short strategies in Nifty and BNF, both hit stop losses. But last friday evening, nothing great happened! Rupee closed at 71.725, a recovery of 12 paise. DJIA closed 69 points up which is just OK. So for tomorrow, our market opening will depend on Hang Seng and SGX nifty. My belief is that, since friday's rally was on hope of some announcements which did not happen, Global markets showing status quo, ruppee showing marginal improvement, but FIIs still in 'Sell' mode, we might see some back-tracking in Nifty. Let us see other usual data.
1) FII & DII data: Provisional data suggests that FIIs were Net sellers by 957 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers by 1207 Crs. In absolute figure terms, DIIs bought shares worth 3300 Crs and FIIs sold shares worth 4274 Crs. As per final data submitted for 5th September, FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 416 Crs, and in index futures by 955 Crs and net buyers in stock futures by 232 Crs. Note that on both, Thursday and Friday, FIIs were net sellers.
I have no doubt that same will happen on Monday too.
2) Option Chain data: On PUT side, highest total OI (20.97 lakhs) and highest fresh Put writing (11.09 lakhs) both are on 11900 strike. Such high OI and writing is not seen on any other strike even on Call side. Co clearly 10900 looks as strong support for tomorrow. 2nd highest Put writing ( 6.19 lakhs) is at 10850 strike but 2nd highest total OI (16.70 lakhs) is at 10800 strike. So if 10900 crumbles, 10850 will act as next line of defence and if that goes down, 10800 will pitch in. I think 10800 will remain support of this week if everything else ( global markets, rupee, oil & news ) remains as it is today. On CALL side, highest total OI (18.67 lakhs) is at 11000 strike and fresh highest Call writing (4.00 lakhs- much low!) is at 11100 strike. Due to friday's rally, Call writers are on backfoot clearly. If 11000 breaks, the rally might continue well upwards. But I think due to reasons mentioned above, it might not happen. So for tomorrow 10900-11000 looks good trading range.
3) Charts: On friday, Nifty closed as strong green candle with higher high and higher low. this trend is seen for past 2 trading sessions. There are no clear trading levels on chart and hence I have shown resistances and support. R1 is 20 DEMA line at 10980. R2 is at 11048. strategy for tomorrow is to short when it approaches 11000 levels with a SL of 30 points and target of around 70 points. If it falls below friday's close right in the beginning, buying at 10900 can be done but with strict SL of 30 points since predominant trend is down still.
All the best. Happy trading.
NIFTY for 6th SeptemberI hope traders who read post here yesterday made some profits as price came well into Selling area and then went down as expected. If people are making money using this info then the purpose is served, otherwise it is just an academic exercise in futility.
Though I said that trades in both directions are possible, if we see the data, it still is bear market. Normally on expiry day, Wild swings are expected and I thought that once Nifty fell to 10820 levels, it might bounce back since banknifty was at important support. But it did not happen till the end and hence I am saying it still is bears' market. Only piece of good news was Rupee improved and closed below 72.
1) FII & DII data: As per provisional data, FIIs (Net) sold shares worth 561 Crs and DIIs (net) bought shares worth 699 Crs. On 4th, FIIs sold shares worth 1203 Crs in Equity and that day Nifty staged some recovery and thus it looked like today on 5th we might have expiry above 10900. But we closed today almost flat, just 3.25% above yesterday's close. FIIs are not done selling.
2) Option chain data-On PUT side, the highest total OI ( 11.71 Lakhs) and highest fresh Put writing ( 7.69 lakhs) is at 10800 strike, prompting 10800 as credible support for now. On CALL side both strikes of 10900 and 11000 show almost similar total Oi and Call writing so both can be taken as OK resistances. So as per current market condition I would treat 10800 as support and 10900 as resistance. Tomorrow being first day of weekly series, volumes would be low and hence this range would hold I believe.
3) Charts- Nifty finished as a red doji candle with higher high and higher low. As of now, DJIA is trading 390 points up due to encouraging news about US - China trade talks and I would expect favourable conditions for gap-up openning. So once it approches our selling area as shown on chart, one can trade with proper SL.
All the best. Happy trading.
BANKNIFTY for 4th SeptemberPlease read this post along with my post on NIFTY to get complete idea of market moves. Bank Nifty fell significantly today and in a rare case all 12 constituent-banks registered decline- that too by more than 1%, including 3 PSU banks! Such was the deep fall that BNF never really showed any signs of recovery. So what do we see tomorrow?
1) Option Chain data: On PUT side, the highest total outstanding OI (3.75 lakhs) is at 26500 strike with very low but 2nd highest fresh Put writing (100.28 lakhs) near ATM strikes (CMP-26824). Highest fresh Put writing (1.19 lakhs) across all strikes is at 26000 strike which is very far right now. Near ATM, highest PUT writing (1.15 lakhs) was seen at 26400 strike. There is Put unwinding starting from 27000 strike and above that. On CALL side, there is good OI build-up at and all atrikes above 27000. The total highest OI (5.16 lakhs) and highest Call writing (4.30 lakhs) both, are seen at 27000 strikes, near ATM strikes. Otherwise total highest OI and highest fresh Call writing across all strikes is seen at 27500 strike which is very far from CMP. So for tomorrow 27000 looks Ok resistance and 26500 looks Ok support too.
3) Charts- on daily chart, BNF made a strong red candle with lower low and lower high. I had written yesterday that this was a strong possibility due to negative news and pattern on chart till yesterday. However, after massive fall today, chances are that we might see some consolidation. DJIA currently is 360 points down. This global weakness will spill over to our matkets as well. So after a gap down openning, we might go up. so do not short. Short at levels mentioned on 15 min chart as, to me, those were safe shorting levels.
ALL the best. Happy trading.
NIFTY for 4th SeptemberI hope traders who read my post yesterday did manage to earn some profits on short side today. Look at the extent of fall based on following observations:
1) Sensex logs worst fall in 11 months by falling 770 points intra-day.
2) Among Nifty 50, only 2 advanced, 48 declined. 2 stocks advanced were Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies (due to fall in Rupee).
3) Rupee fell below INR 72 and closed much below at 72.4050. Such systematically steep was the fall that open was very near to high and close was very near to low ( Open:71.9825, Low:71.9800 and high:72.4075, close:72.40- Note: The scale is inverted in USD/INR case).
4) All the 12 component-banks of BANKNIFTY declined and that too by more than 1%.
Let us now analyse using some relevant data about what we are likely to see tomorrow.
1) FII & DII data- On provisional basis, FIIs were Net sellers by 2016 Crs whereas DIIs were Net Buyers by 1251 Crs. FIIs/ FPIs are still selling and today the amount crossed by 2000 Crs.
2) Option Chain Data- On PUT side there is nothing much that inspires buying. The highest total outstanding OI (14.18 lakhs) is at 11800 with 3rd highest fresh Put writing ( 1.45 lakhs) near ATM strikes. Fresh highest Put writing (3.82 lakhs) is at 11600 strike which has 5th highest total OI (8.81 lakhs) near ATM strikes. CMP is 10797. There is unwinding on all strikes above 10900. So Put writers are not even hopig that Nifty might rise! On CALL side, however, there is significant build up of contracts above 10900 strike. Total highest OI (29.33 lakhs) is at 11000 strike and fresh highest Call writing (19.83 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. For now 10900 looks good resistance but no decent support to me as per OC data.
3) Charts- On daily Chart, Nifty finished as a strong red candle with lower low and lower high than previous day's candle. The low made today is quite close to closing price signifying that there wasn't much recovery after hitting low. That shows the loss of confidence.The low is also very near to low made on 26th August, the day market reacted to FM's budget reversals (FPI surcharge,etc.). My reading for tomorrow is still bearish. Right now DJIA (Dow jones) is showing 340 points down. This global weaknes will no doubt influence our openning too. So if we open gap down- don't short. After sucha massive fall, some buying can emerge. Clear Selling levels are mentioned on chart if price reaches there, otherwise it will have to be traded as per live market movement.
All the best. Happy trading.
NIFTY for 27th AugustMarket was benevolent today. Now why I say that? I essentially wrote 4 points in my last post on weekend: 1) Market would open gap up by around 150 points, (2) It would rise from there as well, (3) Maruti, Heromotocorp, Bajaj auto have had their run up already so trade these with caution, and (4) Impact of DJIA fall of 2.37% will be minimal. I was wrong on 4th point. On other three I was right though it did not move the way I thought it would. So Nifty openned at 11000, gap-up by almost 170 points, went down by around 244 points ( so that all those traders who had shorts could cover them or even earn some marginal profits), then started moving up ( for the obvious rally fuelled by relief measures announced on friday) and closed above openning price. Tell me, is it not benevolence? That it allowed people not to make losses on shorts and also allowed traders to long and make profits on other side, if they had taken some longs in the openning hours of market. And this was rare. I haven't seen many such occassions. But how many could actually trade both legs and make money? Salute to vagaries of market! Now, what about tomorrow? Let's see.
1) FII & DII data- According to provisional data, FIIs were Net Sellers by around 753 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers by around 1272 Crs. According to final data, FIIs were Net Sellers in Equity by 1657 Crs and Net buyers in Index futures by 428 Crs and in stock futures by 427 Crs. I believe, FIIs sold today on international pressures and bought later when news broke that China & US were again coming to table for discussions. Frankly, its a sham! The last meeting, 18th one at that, ended mid way without any aggreement. China knows too well that the discussions are over for good and it is preparing accordingly. So on this front do not expect any credible good news. Trump will keep tweeting and US markets will keep reacting or rather overreacting! God help them.
2) Option Chain data- On PUT side, highest total OI ( 34.48 lakhs) and second highest fresh Put writing (10.51 lakhs) is at 11000 strike. Highest Fresh Put writing (13.47 lakhs) is at 10900 strike. At other lower strikes too there is impressive total OI. So as of now 11000 & 10900 look Ok supports to me. On CALL side, highest total OI (31.53 lakhs) and highest fresh Unwinding( 14.54 lakhs, on any strike , any side) is on 11000 strike. There is no good fresh Call writing on any strike, so Call writers are divided and understandably so since Nifty rallied by more that 300 points from it's low in a single session. So there is no credible resistance.
3) Charts - Here there is dilemma. Gap up, huge run up and good impressive fundamental reforms, all point towards a bull rally. But on daily charts (for Nifty as well as for bank Nifty) today, the candle it made is known as 'Hanging man pattern'- A pattern that is recognised by long shadow/wick on lower side and very little or no uppper wick with small body. This is hugely bearish pattern. Please google it for more info if you want. So what could go wrong? One, internation markets for one and Rupee value Vs USD for two. INR is quoting at 72.0520, above the comfortable level of 72. Conclusion- OC data points towards a bull rally but charts point toward downside, so do not rush into any trade. Long at around 10900 and short between 11145 -11180 with a SL of around 30 points for a gain of 60-70 points.
All the best. Happy trading.
NIFTY for 14th AUGUSTTraders who read my last two posts would be having mixed feelings. Me too! I wrote yesterday that tussle would ensue when Reliance would try to pull market up and other factors- Inaction on FPI surcharge, repee fall and poor IIP data- would try to take it down. But who will win was difficult to predict. But neither in my wildest dreams I thought Reliance would rise so much and Market would still fall so much! The bearishness which means was so huge that had Reliance not put its weight behind Nifty, it would have fallen by almost 300 points, or even more! Let's find out what we have in store for tomorrow. Today's analysis would be from different data points or events, if you are watching what is happenning elsewhere.
POSITIVES- If you read through FII & DII Buy/Sell data, we get a different feeling. Provisional data shows that FIIs were net sellers by 638 Crs (quite low as compared to fall in Nifty and BNF) and DIIs were net buyers by 201 Crs. The final data is strange- FIIS were net Buyers in Equity on secondary market by 306 Crs but net Sellers in 'primary market and others' by 1052 Crs. In debt too, FIIs were net buyers on secondary market but net sellers in ' primary market and others' by around 105 Crs. Further in Index and stock futures too FIIs are shown as net buyers! Now the extent of fall is not reflecting in Selling figures which means volume would be low. So as we check NIFTY futures daily volume, we do find that volume was almost same as that on friday but lower than each day in entire past week. Now what it means to me is that FIIs have nearly exhausted their selling stocks as of now. Whatever they are holding now- they want it to hold, atleast as of now. DIIs are perpetual buyers so they will look to buy tomorrow after such a massive fall today. Another development - DJIA is now trading at around 400 points up since Trump delayed enforcing tariffs till December 15th- Positive for all world markets.
NEGATIVES - Bad situation at HongKong as protestors and law enforcers both have raised their struggle levels; fear of slowdown and signs of recession. Argentina default and devaluation of its currency peso. Rupee fall.
So again what is likely to happen tomorrow? Based on these developments and data, Market might rise because of factors listed above from limits shown on chart. If it reaches 11115 level one can try shorting witha SL of around 60 points (yes SL is big here). So effective favourable trade is Buy @ around 10900, with SL at10860 and target at 11015.
NIFTY for 13th AugustAs outlined in my earlier post, any developments on FPI surcharge, IIP data and falling Rupee will will guide how market moves tomorrow. Now add one more factor to it, Reliance Industries results or rather Reliance announcements as I would call it. Market will react favourably to Reliance results and since it has considerable weightage, it might push Nifty up.
1) On friday, provisional figures show FIIs and DIIs both as net buyers and final figures show FIIs as Net Sellers in only Equity but net buyers in Index and stock futures. So it was overall net buying by FIIs that saw pushing Nifty's day- high and day-low.
2) Options chain analysis- On PUT side, highest total OI (16.40 lakhs) is at 11000 but fresh highest Put writing (12.30 lakhs) is seen at 11100 with total OI as 13.50 lakhs (2nd highest). So 11100 and 11000 both offer good supports. On Call side, total highest OI (20.30 lakhs) and fresh highest Call writing (10.82 lakhs) both are seen at 11200, so it can be taken as immediate Resistance. As per option chain data, thus, realistic range is 11000 to 11200 for tomorrow.
3) On charts, yesterday's high of 11181 represents a credible resistance. Now actually tomorrow, Reliance's results might push Nifty up and other factors like poor IIP data, Ruppee fall and inaction on FPI surcharge could take Nifty down. It just can't be said where the tussle will end. So I have marked upper (Sell) limit and lower (buy) limit, where Reward-to-Risk (RR) ratio is good. You can take these trades with a SL of around 30 points. At this moment DJIA is showing 248 points down which is around 1%. So if this remains the way it is, negative bias from global markets may be there at the openning of market.
Dow Jones (DJI) hourly chart analysis - Symmetric TriangleDow Jones (DJI) hourly chart analysis - Symmetric Triangle.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - historical monthly chart analysisDow Jones Industrial Average - historical monthly chart analysis.
S&P 500, DJIA,NIFTY 50,BANK NIFTY , ANY IDEAS ??
BEFORE ELECTION IS EVERYTHING ALREADY DISCOUNTED OR WE ARE IN FOR SOME HUGE SHORTS.
facebook I am bullish on the counter till its holding 115, sl fir me is 115 while upside i see upto 160 zones
TWITTER looks weak at current levelsi see the stock may extreme pressure in coming days !! even 20$ cant be ruled out
The end of Dow JonesAs I am writing this, Dow Jones closing at 25800 climbing 547 points (+2.17%), one of the biggest rises we have seen in recent times on DJIA 2.17% . With this bounce, it seems to have concluded the corrective wave and is on its course to start its downward journey from hereon. If my guess is true, we may not see 26000 again on Dow for a very long time and the fall from here is likely to be steep. Expect initial levels of 22000 on Dow in the coming couple of months with the possibilities of extension of the fall wide open
