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23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
S&P 500 in D Impulsive WaveOn Weekly Basis: S&P 500 currently at 4072 facing a resistance from downtrend line at 4080 as well as 200 DMA at 4055 (though breached upward briefly). It completed the final E of bear market wave at 3675. It again breached the low of 3675 and made a new low of 3583. It was about to qualify for new bear phase cycle of capitulation but could not sustain and moved up again. S&P 500 may at its best go to 4280. 4080 to 4280 is the level to resume short sell. RSI on weekly basis also no more oversold and in fact at neutral zone. The bear market if it resumes would be the worst phase with target below 3000 level. Warning and Disclaimer: Above prediction should not be taken as financial advice, it is a personal opinion. Consult your financial advisor. Investment is subject to market risks. Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance. It is for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPXShort
by AnkurSharda3
NIFYT WEEKLY UPDATEINDEX UPDATE NIFTY -like last weekly update had explained a break below 16820 will lead to 16400-16200 -today we are opening at the lower end of the range target we had from 17430-16820 -but most traders have not been able to capture the down move in market -last weekly candle on nifty is brutal -nifty will open in strong support zone of 16200-16150 -banknifty will open near crucial support of @34200-34300 -nifty pcr is oversold -intraday bounce is expected -weekly chart indicating nifty may move towards 15500 level if it closes below 16000 -FRESH SHORTS BELOW 15950 global and currency update *dxy index like discussed above 104 is alarming *usd/inr breaking above all time high *expect financials and nbfc to be under pressure *wti curde back above 110 *US-10Y SETTLED ABOVE 3% *US MARKET ALL MAJOR INDEX HAVE BROKEN HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN NECKLINE "NOT GOOD SIGNS FOR MARKET" "STAY LIGHT IN OVERNIGHT POSITIONS NIFTY HOURLY CHART BANKNIFTY WEEKLY CHART DXY MONTHLY CHART US MKT PATTERN UPDATE
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
The S&P 500 Starts To Bounce? Support & Resistance MappedThe S&P 500 (SPX) is now starting to bounce. The sellers are exhausted according to the indicators and we are seeing a strong jump taking place today. We have more details on the chart above. We believe that prices can bounce before producing one final strong drop, but it all depends on how these support and resistance levels are handled, we remain open to all scenarios. If prices move up and stay above the "resistance zone", the bulls take control, but if they move lower, the "support zone" can be tested. If prices for the SPX manages to go below the "support zone", then we can expect more red and lower targets as shown in my previous long-term weekly analysis. If support holds, we can expect prices to move back up. You can find my previous weekly analysis here: www.tradingview.com Thanks a lot for reading... Remember to hit LIKE to show your support. Namaste.
SP:SPX
by AlanSantana
7
S&P 500 then and now, What next?After this huge slippage of prices today, the bullish invalidation is at $2874sh level and bullish knock back to the market will be in between the range of 3017-3050 zone. What is expected next is break of bullish invalidation and lower side targets. A probable pull back or retest of bullish knock is possible before a fall again. BHOOMI predicted this fall way before, on 20th Feb itself. Read my earlier blog on different topics at niftyanalysis.in/blog
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AbsoluteAnalysis
Gold : More of Chakravuyh than Arjuna's Arrow !Our long pending analysis and the most sought analysis is Gold. True, people are worried at uncertain times and economic scenario's around them, so they want to analyse whether Gold will be safe security for part of their investments. Before we go into analyzing the Xauusd, Be clear about the fact we are building a case with our analysis like Chakravuya considering various economic factors, its not a straight arrow from Arjuna aimed at Bird's Eye. So we are analyzing with Global scenario's,News Events, Fed rate hikes etc. What do we see in the chart above ? Broadening Wedge Ascending Pattern which usually breaks to downside, rarely it moves up. Check out My posts on AUDUSD and USDCAD you will know how this pattern worked in the past. For sample, I'm attaching Aussie, for cad post check in my public profile. Above chart is not one time instance, I can show you 5 charts for this broadening wedge working in same manner breaking downside and moving up after the breakout. So Gold is expected to give the breakout before Fed meet & move below 1200's, with Fed rate hike ( 80% probability for rate hike) Markets will move in knee-jerk reaction with few session wicks going below 1175's barely kissing 1150;s or staying above during that time. After the dust settles down, Gold will move up as it will be considered as safe asset. Now we will have a look at DXY, So in next 3 weeks DXY will reach 103's and will move down when Fed rate hike is announced. We knew Sell the News which is insync with the post. The upside move for rate hike is already factored in , so the reversal on cards.When it moves down again Gold is sought as safe asset for investment. Apart from all these, We don't know clear picture of Trump's policies ( Economic especially), by Jan'17 we will get an idea what he is about to do, which will be definitely perceived as bad for Global economy because any change in stable policies is not accepted with cheer. Now coming to our very own King ( even if it's one eye, We are King ) Indian Economy, you should realize the effects of demonetization. (a) Due to cash crunch, Business will be affected in Small & Micro firms/industries - Productivity drops (b) For sometime we will have Unemployment skyrocketing in unskilled sector ( Construction,lathe works etc.) (c) Real estate prices will drop (d) Capital to invest in infrastructure & to expand business will be delayed. ( though with rate cuts, cash flow will increase ) (e) Fed rate hike - Rupee depreciates ( Money will flow out of India, DII's are here to save the day ) Need more proof, check this US Index SPX : When US markets go down what will markets around the world will do ?? I can show the same pattern in many scrips. But these uncertainty around the markets are enough for Indian markets to go down & What's the safe asset ?? Gold ! Already Indians are good at investing & securing this precious metal, Now demand will go up and Gold prices will rise. Only if something real good happens for whole global economy it will remain below 1200's,else we will see 1360's level in Gold from 1175's. Now you might have realized Why its Chakravuyha instead of Straight Arrow from Arjuna;s Bow ! I'm expecting your comments to discuss further, so feel free to comment your opinions...
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InsiderB
7