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Q&A_ Why is Nifty50 still strong whereas SPX is in a bear grip?Namaste! Currently, Nifty is trading near very important levels. This was the important resistance (because of lot of consolidation happening between Jun-July 2021), which became a support after the breakout. It has been tested twice since the July breakout. S&P 500 fell into bear market yesterday as far as daily close is considered. But, I am not convinced 100% of this happening, because Dow Jones is still hasn't got into bear market yet. I will be convinced >90% if SPX closes below 3854.90 in weekly chart . Q: Why is Nifty still strong as compared to US markets. A: 1st reason is that, the fund houses, hedge funds, investors and FIIs may be moving money from weak US markets to comparably strong Indian markets. 2nd reason is that since it is a very strong support, market have to consolidate a little before moving below (15600 Nifty level). Q: Will we see bear market in Nifty soon? A: Well, if DJI slips into bear market too, then there is a very high probability that we will. Q: Should we wait for a bear market to start investing? A: NO. There are many stocks in Sensex and Nifty which became undervalued due to this bearish plunge. You should to find such stocks and get into it without waiting for more downfall. Disclaimer: I am not an expert or professional degree holder into the field of investing. The views and analysis I have shared is of my own, based on my understanding. Please do your own due diligence before any activity.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session.” The gap-up took out my resistance of 19226 and was forced to go long. I was eagerly waiting for the 19310 to get broken so that the bullish momentum was done and cemented. This did not happen as Nifty was out of steam by 11.00. The 14.30 to 14.50 price action looked scary though, assuming the FIIs would have offloaded their selling positions in this window. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon. These bullish price moves could be highly shortlived as well because its just a reaction of market participants to the FED’s announcement yesterday. Just for reference, I have pasted the SPX chart herewith. Could this relief rally be just another lower high in the making? When the global macros are that bad and the earnings are weak, there is every possibility for the bear run to continue. So if you are a bull, enjoy till it lasts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
S&P 500 in D Impulsive WaveOn Weekly Basis: S&P 500 currently at 4072 facing a resistance from downtrend line at 4080 as well as 200 DMA at 4055 (though breached upward briefly). It completed the final E of bear market wave at 3675. It again breached the low of 3675 and made a new low of 3583. It was about to qualify for new bear phase cycle of capitulation but could not sustain and moved up again. S&P 500 may at its best go to 4280. 4080 to 4280 is the level to resume short sell. RSI on weekly basis also no more oversold and in fact at neutral zone. The bear market if it resumes would be the worst phase with target below 3000 level. Warning and Disclaimer: Above prediction should not be taken as financial advice, it is a personal opinion. Consult your financial advisor. Investment is subject to market risks. Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance. It is for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPXShort
by AnkurSharda3
NIFYT WEEKLY UPDATEINDEX UPDATE NIFTY -like last weekly update had explained a break below 16820 will lead to 16400-16200 -today we are opening at the lower end of the range target we had from 17430-16820 -but most traders have not been able to capture the down move in market -last weekly candle on nifty is brutal -nifty will open in strong support zone of 16200-16150 -banknifty will open near crucial support of @34200-34300 -nifty pcr is oversold -intraday bounce is expected -weekly chart indicating nifty may move towards 15500 level if it closes below 16000 -FRESH SHORTS BELOW 15950 global and currency update *dxy index like discussed above 104 is alarming *usd/inr breaking above all time high *expect financials and nbfc to be under pressure *wti curde back above 110 *US-10Y SETTLED ABOVE 3% *US MARKET ALL MAJOR INDEX HAVE BROKEN HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN NECKLINE "NOT GOOD SIGNS FOR MARKET" "STAY LIGHT IN OVERNIGHT POSITIONS NIFTY HOURLY CHART BANKNIFTY WEEKLY CHART DXY MONTHLY CHART US MKT PATTERN UPDATE
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
The S&P 500 Starts To Bounce? Support & Resistance MappedThe S&P 500 (SPX) is now starting to bounce. The sellers are exhausted according to the indicators and we are seeing a strong jump taking place today. We have more details on the chart above. We believe that prices can bounce before producing one final strong drop, but it all depends on how these support and resistance levels are handled, we remain open to all scenarios. If prices move up and stay above the "resistance zone", the bulls take control, but if they move lower, the "support zone" can be tested. If prices for the SPX manages to go below the "support zone", then we can expect more red and lower targets as shown in my previous long-term weekly analysis. If support holds, we can expect prices to move back up. You can find my previous weekly analysis here: www.tradingview.com Thanks a lot for reading... Remember to hit LIKE to show your support. Namaste.
SP:SPX
by MasterAnanda
7
S&P 500 then and now, What next?After this huge slippage of prices today, the bullish invalidation is at $2874sh level and bullish knock back to the market will be in between the range of 3017-3050 zone. What is expected next is break of bullish invalidation and lower side targets. A probable pull back or retest of bullish knock is possible before a fall again. BHOOMI predicted this fall way before, on 20th Feb itself. Read my earlier blog on different topics at niftyanalysis.in/blog
OANDA:SPX500USD
by AbsoluteAnalysis