Get started

Seasonality

Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 08.08.2020Price Action Analysis: On a weekly time frame price action in the current week formed a Bullish SKR price bar pattern to final close at 21754. In the previous week price action resulted into a down bar. With the start of the week price violated the low of the previous week and recorded a low at 21031. Throughout the current week the low of first day of the week was protected and finally managed to close at 21754 above the preceding week close at 21640. The important aspect to keep in mind is that the current week price bar is indeed a down bar but the close of the current bar closing above the previous close makes it a Bullish SKR price bar. The close of the current price bar is in the upper one third of the range indicating bulls in control. The price bar has a smaller body (210) compared to the wick ((695) both upper and lower wick combined) which raises a question about the extent of participation. The length of the lower wick (513) is 2.81 times of the upper wick (183). The buying pressure of the current week (722) is 3.9 times that of weekly selling pressure (183). The position of close, small body, larger lower wick small lower wick, buying and selling pressure indicates a possible turnaround in the existing direction of price. The turnaround will be confirmed only when price first breaks the high (21937) of Bullish SKR without violating the low (21031). Price breaking the low of Bullish SKR invalidates the Bullish expectation. On a daily time frame price action formed an Inside bar on Friday. The prior bar, the bar before the Inside Bar, is referred to as the “Mother Bar”. With the completion of an Inside Bar one can observe that price neither surpassed the high of mother bar nor violated the low of the preceding bar indicating indecision. Inside Bar also indicate that the prevailing momentum has dissipated because buyers and sellers are equally matched and have no conviction. An Inside Bar usually represents market indecision. In terms of demand and supply, an Inside Bar indicates that, demand and supply are in state of equilibrium and hence a period of consolidation. With an Inside Bar we neither have a bullish nor a bearish expectation and hence form a neutral expectation. If price surpasses and close above the high of the mother bar then we form a Bullish expectation and if price breaks and close below the low of mother bar then we form a Bearish expectation. With this detailed price action analysis let’s just follow the foot prints of price. For trading decision one need to wait for a suitable Low Risk High Probability trade opportunities. The current weekly volatility decreased to 2.5 compared to the previous weekly volatility of 3.6. The probable weekly returns for the upcoming week is 545 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 227 points. Stock Market Seasonality August 8 marks a very important date according to seasonality. The day is considered as a minor seasonal date which is halfway between the major seasonal levels of June 22 and September 23. On this day price action formed an Inside Bar and hence the high and low of the mother bar will be of utmost importance in determining the future price action. Trade Plan The key level of the existing trend is at 21034 and the critical level at 21027. The point of control of Bank Nifty spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 21484. Currently price is trading above the minor resistance zone at 21710. Price staying above the minor resistance zone of 21710 can move towards the major resistance zone at 21937. Price slipping below the minor resistance at 21710 can move towards the point of control at 21484. Price surpassing the major resistance zone can further move towards the zone of 22163 and 22389. Price below the point of control at 21484 can find minor support in the zone of 21258 and major support in the zone of 21032. Price breaking below the major support zone can move lower towards the zone of 20805 and 20579. Disclaimer All investment ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments and trading decisions involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by VanijyamShala
Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 08.08.2020Price Action Analysis: The present scenario in Nifty reminds me of a paradigm MOB - Make or Break situation. The previous week price bar structure was a Bearish SKR. On Monday price opened at 11057 and recored a low 10882 breaking the low of previous two weeks. But the low of Monday was protected throughout the current week and price advanced making higher low and higher high daily price bar pattern (up bars) finally to close at 11214. The current week price bar made a new low (10882) breaking the previous week low but, closed (11214) above the previous two weeks close (11074 and 11194). As a result of the present price action the current price bar structure nomenclature is Bullish DKR. A Bullish DKR price bar preceded by a Bearish SKR price bar reflects a tug of war between the buyer and sellers. The question in the mind of every trader is that if a tug of war exists between bulls and the bears, then who will win the battle? As a result of the present price action, the current price bar structure nomenclature is MOB. With the present price structure MOB, the price action in the upcoming week can result into either of the following 3 scenarios. Scenario 1: A Bullish expectation can be formed if price breaks the high of the Bullish DKR price bar (11257) without violating the low (10882). Price breaking the high without violating the low of Bullish DKR is just an indication but the confirmation for the Bullish expectation is only when price surpasses the high of Bearish SKR at 11342. Scenario 2: A Bearish expectation and confirmation will come into action if price breaks the low of Bullish DKR price (10882) without surpassing the high of Bullish DKR (11257). Scenario 3: A Neutral expectation will come into action if price neither breaks the high of Bearish SKR (11342) nor the low of Bullish DKR (10822). With a neutral expectation it is always better to stay on sidelines. With a MOB in place there is a high probability that price action can result in false breakouts near the support and resistance zone. One should always pay special attention and assess the mass sentiment of the heterogeneous group rather than just looking at patterns.On a daily time frame price action formed an Inside bar on Friday. The prior bar, the bar before the inside bar, is referred to as the “Mother Bar”.With the completion of an inside bar one can observe that price neither surpassed the high of mother bar nor violated the low of the preceding bar indicating indecision. Inside Bar also indicate that the prevailing momentum has dissipated because buyers and sellers are equally matched and have no conviction. An Inside Bar usually represents market indecision. In terms of demand and supply, an Inside Bar indicates that, demand and supply are in state of equilibrium and hence a period of consolidation. With an Inside Bar we neither have a Bullish nor a Bearish expectation and hence form a neutral expectation. If price surpasses and close above the high of the mother bar then we form a Bullish Expectation and if price breaks and close below the low of mother bar then we form a Bearish expectation. With this detailed price action analysis let’s just follow the foot prints of price. For trading decision one need to wait for a suitable Low Risk High Probability trade opportunities. The current weekly volatility decreased to 1.4 compared to previous weekly volatility of 2. The probable weekly returns is of 162 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 94 points. Price is trading within the zone of, January quarterly range resistance zone 11201 and March quarterly resistance zone 11178. Stock Market Seasonality August 8 marks a very important date according to seasonality. The day is considered as a minor seasonal date which is halfway between the major seasonal levels of June 22 and September 23. On this day price action formed an Inside Bar and hence the high and low of the mother bar will be of utmost importance in determining the future price action. Trade Plan The point of control of Nifty Spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 11069. Currently price is trading in the mid zone of minor resistance zone at 11163 and major resistance zone at 11257. Price slipping below the minor resistance at 11163 can move towards the point of control at 11069. Price surpassing the major resistance at 11257 can further move towards the zone of 11350 and 11444. Price violating the point of control at 11069 can find minor support in the zone of 10975 and major support in the zone of 10882. Price breaking below the major support can move much lower towards the zone of 10788 and 10694. Disclaimer All trade ideas published here are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
4
Bank Nifty Monthly Technical and Seasonality Outlook - AugustPrice Action Analysis: BankNifty recorded an all-time high at 32614 in the month of December 2019. From the all-time high price declined in a three leg down move to and recorded a new low at 16116. From the low of 16116 price retraced in three leg up move with a swing high at 21967, swing low at 17105, a higher swing high 23212 and to finally close at 21640. Each bar has a story behind it. A price action practitioner should understand the true essence when interpreting a price bar, then only he or she will be able to see the reality of price, else will end up with just an illusion. So now let’s look at the story behind the current month price bar structure. Price opened near the previous close, then surpassed the previous high, and made a new high indicating bulls in control at one point of time. But then, bears overtook the charge from bulls and pushed the price towards the low and closed in the lower one third of the range but slightly above the open resulting into a bearish pin bar. The size of body is just a thirteenth part of the range. The size of wicks (both upper and lower combined) is 6.5 times greater than the size of body. The size of the upper wick is 4.8 times the size of the lower wick. The selling pressure is almost 2.5 times that of the buying pressure. Even though the current bar is a bullish bar but a small body and a large upper wick indicate a weak bullishness with a possible turnaround in the existing direction of price. The close, body, wicks, buying pressure and selling pressure indicate a possible turnaround or in other words, with a bearish pin bar we form a bearish expectation. The bearish expectation will be confirmed only when price break the low of the bearish pin bar at 21027. With a monthly and weekly close falling in line price formed a weekly bearish PPR price bar. (For further detailed insights you will have to wait for the weekly technical outlook which will be published by 02.08.2020) The current month volatility of BankNifty is at 15.2 and the annual volatility at 52.8.The probable monthly returns is of 3303 points from the monthly close, with a measured move in increments of 546 points. Stock Market Seasonality Seasons are caused by the fact that the Earth is tilted on its axis by 23.5°. With seasons we have Equinox and Solstice. A solstice is the point during the Earth's orbit around the sun at which the sun is at its greatest distance from the equator, while during an equinox, it's at the closest distance from the equator. The summer solstice occurred in June and the autumnal equinox is due in the month of September. With the end of summer solstice we derive the semiannual seasonality levels. The price levels of 21762 acts as the semiannual seasonality level for BankNifty. Currently price is trading at 21583 which is below the semiannual seasonality levels of 21763. Price action near the zone of semiannual seasonality will be of utmost importance in determining the future direction of price which will be valid till the end of upcoming winter solstice. Trade Plan The point of control of BankNifty Spot for the month of August is in the zone of 22120. Currently price is trading below the point of control and hovering near the minor support zone of 21574. Price surpassing the point of control can find minor resistance in the zone of 22666 and major resistance in the zone of 23212. Price surpassing the major resistance zone can further move towards the zone of 23758 and 24303. Price staying below the point of control at 22120 can find minor support in the zone of 21573 and major support in the zone of 21027. Price breaking below the major support zone can move lower towards the zone of 20481 and 19936. Disclaimer All trade ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by VanijyamShala
4
Nifty Monthly Technical and Seasonality Outlook - AugustPrice Action Analysis: Nifty recorded an all-time high at 12431 in the month of January 2020. From the all-time high price declined and recorded a new low at 7511. From the low of 7511 price retraced in three leg up move with a swing high at 9889, swing low at 8806 and to finally close at 11073. The question in the mind of most traders is that, will this up move continue further or will we see a change in price direction? In order to understand the true nature of price let’s analyze the foot prints of price. On a monthly time frame, price formed an Inside Bar in the month of April. With an Inside Bar in place, the price bar of March is considered as the Mother Bar with a high at 11433 and low of 7511. In the month of July, price recorded a high at 11342 and closed at 11073. Even though price recorded a new high in the current month, the monthly close is below the January quarter range resistance (11201) and the March quarter resistance (11178). Price rise in the current month is on low volumes compared to the previous month volume. The first sign of further up move will be only when price manages to break above the monthly high at 11342. The confirmation for the continuation of up move will be only when price breaks and closes above the mother bar high at 11433. With a monthly and weekly close falling in line price formed a weekly Bearish SKR price bar. (For further detailed insights you will have to wait for the weekly technical outlook which will be published by 02.08.2020) The current month volatility of Nifty is at 10.7 and the annual volatility at 37.3.The probable monthly returns is of 1193 points from the monthly close, with a measured move in increments of 260 points. Stock Market Seasonality Seasons are caused by the fact that the Earth is tilted on its axis by 23.5°. With seasons we have Equinox and Solstice. A solstice is the point during the Earth's orbit around the sun at which the sun is at its greatest distance from the equator, while during an equinox, it's at the closest distance from the equator. The summer solstice occurred in June and the autumnal equinox is due in the month of September. With the end of summer solstice we derive the semiannual seasonality levels. The price levels of 10531 acts as the semiannual seasonality level for Nifty. The semiannual seasonality levels coincides with the monthly minor support. Price action near the zone of semiannual seasonality will be of utmost importance in determining the future direction of price which will be valid till the end of next winter solstice. Trade Plan The point of control of Nifty Spot for the month of August is in the zone of 11821. Currently price is hovering around the minor resistance zone at 11081. Price slipping below the minor resistance zone and witnessing a valid break can move towards the point of control at 10821. Price staying above the minor resistance zone can move towards the major resistance zone at 11342. Price surpassing the major resistance can move towards the zone of 11602 and 11863. Price breaking point of control at 10821 can find minor support in the zone of 10561 and major support in the zone of 10299. Price breaking below the major support can move lower towards the zone of 10039 and 9778. Disclaimer All trade ideas published are for educational purpose only. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NSE:NIFTY
by VanijyamShala
3
COALINDIA approaching lifetime lowsAs explained on chart. Would suggest a staggered investing method for portfolio addition and Swing trades. Long Entry price 180-185 SL Lifetime Low 177 Target Open! Swing traders can exit at Targets 200-210 I personally feel that the budget on Saturday is going to give a nice boost to energy stocks and such infrastructure/power driven stocks. Starting Addition as soon as bounce from falling support trendline crosses the 1/1 fractal on Fibb Fan.
NSE:COALINDIALong
by EagleVision8